OTRON THE RICEinvestments · PRICE MARKINGS · HEADLINES
MenuGraph

GRAPH · MSFT

Microsoft: predictions, prices and linked headlines

This page keeps every Microsoft prediction and source-timed headline together. The Founder result remains separate from later price evidence.

Line = price · P = prediction published · number = headline published.

← See all investments

investments
1
Predictions
10
Linked headlines
2
Timed events
12

6 September 2026 graph update: 0 new story markers and 0 prediction points were added for this edition. The preserved history below keeps its original dates.

How OTR judges a headline

OTR asks what the event may do to this investment—not whether the words sound happy or scary. May help, may hurt, mixed or unclear is shown beside each linked headline. Later prices test the idea; timing alone never proves cause.

WHAT HAPPENED NEXT

What happened after saved stories about Microsoft

2 saved story matches

0 of 6 possible later-price checks are available.

0 out of 100 ready for comparison

This measures how many required prices were saved. It does not measure prediction skill.

No repeated twenty-hour direction can be shown yet

This only describes the past. It does not predict the next move.

Showing all 2 saved events. Open each row for the actual price times, source and earlier comparisons.

Saved storyPublishedAfter 1 hourAfter 4 hoursAfter 20 hoursEarlier comparisons and evidence
OpenAI plans to end model supply for SpaceX-owned Cursor2026-08-29 10:01:58.685 Singapore timeNot measuredNot measuredNot measured
0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the storyStarting price and saved timeLater price and saved timeTime accuracyPrice source
1 hourNot recorded
Time not recorded		Not recorded
Time not recorded		Not available in the saved evidencePrice source not recorded
4 hoursNot recorded
Time not recorded		Not recorded
Time not recorded		Not available in the saved evidencePrice source not recorded
20 hoursNot recorded
Time not recorded		Not recorded
Time not recorded		Not available in the saved evidencePrice source not recorded
Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to Microsoft.

Supporting reports

What argues against it

  • This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
  • Issuer disclosures establish results and risks, not causal share-price responses.
  • AI contribution and capacity commentary may not be reported at enough detail to isolate every driver.
  • Forward guidance is conditional and market expectations are not directly observed here.
Where the reports came from
Not recorded
Languages
Not recorded
How recent
2026-08-29T10:01:58.685+08:00
Similar earlier cases
Not measured

How sure is OTR?
Insufficient evidenceNo confidence number is shown because source quality, independent reports, freshness, opposing evidence, earlier comparisons, time accuracy are not fully measured.

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

  • Source quality: Not fully measured.
  • Independent reports: Not fully measured.
  • Freshness: Not fully measured.
  • Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
  • Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
  • Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Stocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold up2026-08-28 09:56:49.203 Singapore timeNot measuredNot measuredNot measured
0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the storyStarting price and saved timeLater price and saved timeTime accuracyPrice source
1 hourNot recorded
Time not recorded		Not recorded
Time not recorded		Not available in the saved evidencePrice source not recorded
4 hoursNot recorded
Time not recorded		Not recorded
Time not recorded		Not available in the saved evidencePrice source not recorded
20 hoursNot recorded
Time not recorded		Not recorded
Time not recorded		Not available in the saved evidencePrice source not recorded
Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to Microsoft.

Supporting reports

What argues against it

  • This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
  • Issuer disclosures establish results and risks, not causal share-price responses.
  • AI contribution and capacity commentary may not be reported at enough detail to isolate every driver.
  • Forward guidance is conditional and market expectations are not directly observed here.
Where the reports came from
Not recorded
Languages
Not recorded
How recent
2026-08-28T09:56:49.203+08:00
Similar earlier cases
Not measured

How sure is OTR?
Insufficient evidenceNo confidence number is shown because source quality, independent reports, freshness, opposing evidence, earlier comparisons, time accuracy are not fully measured.

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

  • Source quality: Not fully measured.
  • Independent reports: Not fully measured.
  • Freshness: Not fully measured.
  • Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
  • Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
  • Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

How to read this: a later price shows what followed, not what caused the move. Comparisons use the same market and kind of news, with results already available before this story appeared.

  1. 01

    Microsoft

    MSFT · equity · 10 prediction records

    Evidence
    Publication markers · exact horizontal time
    Loading public price line and publication markers…
    Prediction 1 Prediction published1 Headline publishedPrediction 1 entry priceGraph badges open evidence. Timeline items jump to matching cards.
    Chart readoutPrediction 1 is Rise expected ↑. Visible result record: No result recorded. 12 of 12 timed publication events are placed from left to right.
    Latest public price · never a ledger grade
    Last public price
    Loading public price data…
    From Prediction 1 entry
    Entry 505.06 USD
    Latest call
    Rise expected ↑
    Publication markers
    12 of 12 timed
    Publication timelineOldest → newest

    Left to right matches the graph. Select an event to jump to its full card.

    1. Prediction 10Prediction Prediction 10 · 20 Aug 2026, 15:21 SGTFall expected prediction484.309997559 USD · No result recorded
    2. Prediction 9Prediction Prediction 9 · 20 Aug 2026, 17:22 SGTFall expected prediction484.309997559 USD · No result recorded
    3. Prediction 8Prediction Prediction 8 · 20 Aug 2026, 20:41 SGTFall expected prediction484.30999755859375 USD · PROOF RECEIPT · Right (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
    4. Prediction 7Prediction Prediction 7 · 21 Aug 2026, 01:53 SGTFall expected prediction482.0150146484375 USD · Right
    5. Prediction 6Prediction Prediction 6 · 22 Aug 2026, 01:43 SGTFall expected prediction482.8699951171875 USD · No result recorded
    6. Prediction 5Prediction Prediction 5 · 25 Aug 2026, 10:11 SGTRise expected prediction487.30999755859375 USD · No result recorded
    7. Prediction 4Prediction Prediction 4 · 25 Aug 2026, 15:22 SGTRise expected prediction487.30999755859375 USD · No result recorded
    8. Prediction 3Prediction Prediction 3 · 25 Aug 2026, 17:43 SGTRise expected prediction487.30999755859375 USD · No result recorded
    9. Prediction 2Prediction Prediction 2 · 26 Aug 2026, 07:53 SGTRise expected prediction491.709991 USD · Right
    10. 1Headline 1 · 28 Aug 2026, 09:56 SGTStocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold upCompany Or Asset
    11. Prediction 1Prediction Prediction 1 · 28 Aug 2026, 11:34 SGTRise expected prediction505.06 USD · No result recorded
    12. 2Headline 2 · 29 Aug 2026, 10:01 SGTOpenAI plans to end model supply for SpaceX-owned CursorCompany Or Asset

    Latest prediction · Prediction 1

    1. Prediction 1
      Rise expected · 505.06 USDNo result recorded
      Published
      Deadline

    Headlines · 2 · oldest first

    1. 1
      Stocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold upPublished · 28 Aug 2026, 09:56 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.
      Story noteUnclear MSFT
      No direction

      Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

      Confidence
      Low
      Strength
      Unclear
      Headline mood
      Negative

      Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

      How OTR scored this
      Event
      No Asset Specific Rule
      Link to asset
      Unmapped
      Uncertainty
      No Asset Specific Rule
      Sample
      Independent event
      Rule
      Abstain
    2. 2
      OpenAI plans to end model supply for SpaceX-owned CursorPublished · 29 Aug 2026, 10:01 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.
      Story noteUnclear MSFT
      No direction

      Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

      Confidence
      Low
      Strength
      Unclear
      Headline mood
      Neutral

      Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

      How OTR scored this
      Event
      No Asset Specific Rule
      Link to asset
      Unmapped
      Uncertainty
      No Asset Specific Rule; Modal Language
      Sample
      Independent event
      Rule
      Abstain

    Prediction history · 9 earlier · newest first

    1. Prediction 2
      Rise expected · 491.709991 USDRight
      Published
      Deadline
    2. Prediction 3
      Rise expected · 487.30999755859375 USDNo result recorded
      Published
      Deadline
    3. Prediction 4
      Rise expected · 487.30999755859375 USDNo result recorded
      Published
      Deadline
    4. Prediction 5
      Rise expected · 487.30999755859375 USDNo result recorded
      Published
      Deadline
    5. Prediction 6
      Fall expected · 482.8699951171875 USDNo result recorded
      Published
      Deadline
    6. Prediction 7
      Fall expected · 482.0150146484375 USDRight
      Published
      Deadline
    7. Prediction 8
      Fall expected · 484.30999755859375 USDPROOF RECEIPT · Right (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
      Published
      Deadline
    8. Prediction 9
      Fall expected · 484.309997559 USDNo result recorded
      Published
      Deadline
    9. Prediction 10
      Fall expected · 484.309997559 USDNo result recorded
      Published
      Deadline
    Graph LearningHow news has moved Microsoft beforeOpen the complete asset-specific memory
    OTR GRAPH LEARNING

    What OTR sees for Microsoft

    An extra check. It does not replace the other evidence.
    Editorial illustration of Rais and Bryce in enterprise-software and cloud analysts studying cloud demand, AI adoption, capex returns, margins and reliability for MSFT.
    cloud demand, AI adoption, capex returns, margins and reliability · Rais and Bryce wear enterprise-software and cloud analysts.

    What this is: A software and cloud company whose businesses include Azure, Microsoft 365, Windows, security, gaming and AI services. Its graph is especially sensitive to cloud growth, AI demand, data-centre capacity and the cost of building that capacity.

    Headlines that may cause the price of this investment to go up

    • Azure and other cloud revenue grow faster than expected
    • AI services convert usage into paid cloud and software revenue
    • Data-centre capacity expands without worsening margin guidance

    Headlines that may cause the price of this investment to go down

    • Cloud growth slows or capacity constraints prevent Microsoft from serving demand
    • AI infrastructure spending and depreciation rise faster than monetisation
    • Competition or regulator action changes bundling, distribution or acquisitions

    What OTR checks

    • Azure growth and AI contribution
    • commercial bookings and remaining performance obligations
    • Microsoft 365 seats and pricing
    • capex, finance leases and depreciation
    6 saved news time checks0 completed0 rose0 fell0 roughly flat
    ASSET-SPECIFIC NEWS MEMORYWhat the news may mean here

    0 supportive, 0 pressuring and 2 mixed or unclear asset-specific news signals.

    2 linked headlines classified for this investment; 2 independent event samples. There is not yet a clear checked move suitable for a match test.

    Open the full Graph Learning analysis
    Past
    OTR has 6 saved headline-response checks for this investment: 0 completed, including 0 rises, 0 falls and 0 roughly flat moves. Each row keeps the original source and its news time when that time is verifiable; unresolved times stay explicit and add no weight.
    Now
    News that may help includes Azure and other cloud revenue grow faster than expected; AI services convert usage into paid cloud and software revenue. News that may hurt includes Cloud growth slows or capacity constraints prevent Microsoft from serving demand; AI infrastructure spending and depreciation rise faster than monetisation. OTR also watches Azure growth and AI contribution, commercial bookings and remaining performance obligations, Microsoft 365 seats and pricing.
    Next prediction
    For a future prediction, OTR compares the new event with this investment's own saved reactions, then checks the wider market and named other possible causes. One headline never decides a call by itself.
    When this can mislead
    Demand can be strong while capacity limits reported revenue.; A capex increase can be good if monetisation follows or bad if utilisation stays low.; Constant-currency growth can differ from reported dollar growth.; Broad interest-rate moves affect MSFT's valuation independently of operations.

    Saved headline-move memory

    1. Stocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold up28 Aug 2026, 09:56 SGT
      1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
    2. OpenAI plans to end model supply for SpaceX-owned Cursor29 Aug 2026, 10:01 SGT
      1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet

    Clue, not proof: timing is a clue, never proof. A price move after a headline does not prove the headline caused it. OTR uses a pattern only after it repeats and still holds up against the wider market.

One timeline of saved evidence

Stories, original predictions, review deadlines, checked thesis changes and earlier comparisons share the dates shown below. A review deadline is not the date an outcome was recorded. Only saved moments appear.

Open all 20 dated moments
Singapore timeMomentSaved evidence
PredictionOriginal fall prediction
PredictionOriginal fall prediction
PredictionOriginal fall prediction
PredictionOriginal fall prediction
Review deadlineOpen the original review terms
Review deadlineOpen the original review terms
Review deadlineOpen the original review terms
Review deadlineRecorded outcome: Right
PredictionOriginal rise prediction
PredictionOriginal rise prediction
PredictionOriginal rise prediction
Review deadlineOpen the original review terms
PredictionOriginal rise prediction
Review deadlineOpen the original review terms
Review deadlineOpen the original review terms
Review deadlineRecorded outcome: Right
StoryStocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold up
PredictionOriginal rise prediction
StoryOpenAI plans to end model supply for SpaceX-owned Cursor
Review deadlineOpen the original review terms