US Dollar Index
USD · fx_index · 2 prediction records
Publication markers · exact horizontal time
P1 Prediction published1 Headline publishedP1 entry priceGraph badges open evidence. Timeline items jump to matching cards.
Chart readoutP1 is BEARISH ↓. Visible result record: NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT. 6 of 6 timed publication events are placed from left to right.
Latest public price · never a ledger grade- Last public price
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- From P1 entry
- Entry 99.148 USD
- Latest call
- BEARISH ↓
- Publication markers
- 6 of 6 timed
Publication timelineOldest → newest
Left to right matches the graph. Select an event to jump to its full card.
- P2Prediction P2 · 20 Aug 2026, 20:41 SGTBEARISH prediction98.79000091552734 USD · PROOF RECEIPT · HIT (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
- 1Headline 1 · 28 Aug 2026, 10:34 SGTDollar flat near one-week high as investors await Warsh's Jackson Hole debutCompany Or Asset
- P1Prediction P1 · 28 Aug 2026, 11:34 SGTBEARISH prediction99.148 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
- 2Headline 2 · 28 Aug 2026, 23:47 SGTEquities rise with 2-year yields, dollar as rate hike bets rise following Warsh speechCompany Or Asset
- 3Headline 3 · 29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGTInflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meetingMacro Or Policy
- 4Headline 4 · 29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGTWarsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meetingMacro Or Policy
Latest prediction · P1
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P1
BEARISH · 99.148 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT - Published
- Deadline
Headlines · 4 · oldest first
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1
Dollar flat near one-week high as investors await Warsh's Jackson Hole debutPublished · 28 Aug 2026, 10:34 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab. NEWS SIGNALPushes both ways USDMixedWhy: The dollar is holding near a recent high, but the policy catalyst is still pending, so the signal is only mildly supportive.
- Confidence
- Medium
- Strength
- Light
- Headline mood
- Positive
Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.
How OTR scored this
- Event
- Fx Policy Wait
- Link to asset
- Relative Rate Expectations
- Uncertainty
- None Identified From Headline
- Sample
- Independent event
- Rule
- DOLLAR_WAITING_HIGH
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2
Equities rise with 2-year yields, dollar as rate hike bets rise following Warsh speechPublished · 28 Aug 2026, 23:47 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab. NEWS SIGNALMay help USDUpWhy: Higher expected US rates can increase the dollar's relative yield support.
- Confidence
- High
- Strength
- Strong
- Headline mood
- Positive
Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.
How OTR scored this
- Event
- Rates Repricing
- Link to asset
- Relative Rate Differential
- Uncertainty
- None Identified From Headline
- Sample
- Independent event
- Rule
- RATE_YIELDS_DOLLAR
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3
Inflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meetingPublished · 29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab. NEWS SIGNALUnclear USDNo directionWhy: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.
- Confidence
- Low
- Strength
- Unclear
- Headline mood
- Neutral
Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.
How OTR scored this
- Event
- No Asset Specific Rule
- Link to asset
- Unmapped
- Uncertainty
- No Asset Specific Rule
- Sample
- Independent event
- Rule
- Abstain
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4
Warsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meetingPublished · 29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab. NEWS SIGNALUnclear USDNo directionWhy: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.
- Confidence
- Low
- Strength
- Unclear
- Headline mood
- Neutral
Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.
How OTR scored this
- Event
- No Asset Specific Rule
- Link to asset
- Unmapped
- Uncertainty
- No Asset Specific Rule
- Sample
- Independent event
- Rule
- Abstain
Prediction history · 1 earlier · newest first
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P2
BEARISH · 98.79000091552734 USDPROOF RECEIPT · HIT (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED) - Published
- Deadline
Graph LearningHow news has moved US Dollar Index beforeOpen the complete asset-specific memory
OTR GRAPH LEARNING
An extra check. It does not replace the other evidence.What OTR sees for US Dollar Index
What this is: The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (often called DXY), a fixed-weight geometric basket measuring the dollar against the euro, yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc. It is not a broad trade-weighted measure of every currency.
Headlines that may cause the price of this investible to go up
- U.S. policy-rate or inflation surprises that raise expected U.S. yields relative to the six basket economies.
- Stronger U.S. growth or labour data relative to Europe, Japan, the United Kingdom, Canada, Sweden, and Switzerland.
- Safe-haven or dollar-funding demand during global financial stress.
Headlines that may cause the price of this investible to go down
- Federal Reserve easing or U.S. data weakness relative to basket economies.
- Falling U.S. real yields or narrowing rate differentials.
- Reduced global funding stress and stronger risk appetite that unwinds defensive dollar demand.
What OTR checks
- ICE USDX spot and futures with current contract metadata
- Federal Reserve and six basket-central-bank decisions and expected paths
- Two-year and real-yield differentials
- U.S. and basket-economy inflation, employment, GDP, and business surveys
12 saved news time checks4 completed2 rose0 fell2 roughly flat
1 supportive, 0 pressuring and 3 mixed or unclear asset-specific news signals.
4 linked headlines classified for this investible; 4 independent event samples. 2 of 2 clear checked moves matched the research direction.
Open the full Graph Learning analysis
- Past
- 4 saved story relationships, 4 eligible measured windows. New story bindings add no measured outcome.
- Now
- News that may help includes U.S. policy-rate or inflation surprises that raise expected U.S. yields relative to the six basket economies.; Stronger U.S. growth or labour data relative to Europe, Japan, the United Kingdom, Canada, Sweden, and Switzerland.. News that may hurt includes Federal Reserve easing or U.S. data weakness relative to basket economies.; Falling U.S. real yields or narrowing rate differentials.. OTR also watches ICE USDX spot and futures with current contract metadata, Federal Reserve and six basket-central-bank decisions and expected paths, Two-year and real-yield differentials.
- Next prediction
- Future calls require their own fresh entry and frozen rules. Historical context never substitutes for missing outcome evidence.
- When this can mislead
- DXY's fixed six-currency basket is heavily euro-weighted and is not the global trade-weighted dollar.; Strong U.S. data can weaken the dollar if expectations were even stronger.; Risk-off episodes can strengthen both the dollar and other safe havens.; Rate differentials can be offset by intervention, funding stress, or positioning.
Saved headline-move memory
- Inflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meeting29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGT1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
- Warsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meeting29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGT1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
- Equities rise with 2-year yields, dollar as rate hike bets rise following Warsh speech28 Aug 2026, 23:47 SGT1h · rose 0.09%4h · rose 0.09%20h · not checked yet
- Dollar flat near one-week high as investors await Warsh's Jackson Hole debut28 Aug 2026, 10:34 SGT1h · was roughly flat 0.01%4h · was roughly flat 0.01%20h · not checked yet
Clue, not proof: timing is a clue, never proof. A price move after a headline does not prove the headline caused it. OTR uses a pattern only after it repeats and still holds up against the wider market.