U.S. Dollar Index
USD · fx_index · 2 prediction records
Publication markers · exact horizontal time
Prediction 1 Prediction published1 Headline publishedPrediction 1 entry priceGraph badges open evidence. Timeline items jump to matching cards.
Chart readoutPrediction 1 is Fall expected ↓. Visible result record: No result recorded. 6 of 6 timed publication events are placed from left to right.
Latest public price · never a ledger grade- Last public price
- Loading public price data…
- From Prediction 1 entry
- Entry 99.148 USD
- Latest call
- Fall expected ↓
- Publication markers
- 6 of 6 timed
Publication timelineOldest → newest
Left to right matches the graph. Select an event to jump to its full card.
- Prediction 2Prediction Prediction 2 · 20 Aug 2026, 20:41 SGTFall expected prediction98.79000091552734 USD · PROOF RECEIPT · Right (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
- 1Headline 1 · 28 Aug 2026, 10:34 SGTDollar flat near one-week high as investors await Warsh's Jackson Hole debutCompany Or Asset
- Prediction 1Prediction Prediction 1 · 28 Aug 2026, 11:34 SGTFall expected prediction99.148 USD · No result recorded
- 2Headline 2 · 28 Aug 2026, 23:47 SGTEquities rise with 2-year yields, dollar as rate hike bets rise following Warsh speechCompany Or Asset
- 3Headline 3 · 29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGTInflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meetingMacro Or Policy
- 4Headline 4 · 29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGTWarsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meetingMacro Or Policy
Latest prediction · Prediction 1
-
Prediction 1
Fall expected · 99.148 USDNo result recorded - Published
- Deadline
Headlines · 4 · oldest first
-
1
Dollar flat near one-week high as investors await Warsh's Jackson Hole debutPublished · 28 Aug 2026, 10:34 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab. Story notePushes both ways USDMixedWhy: The dollar is holding near a recent high, but the policy catalyst is still pending, so the signal is only mildly supportive.
- Confidence
- Medium
- Strength
- Light
- Headline mood
- Positive
Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.
How OTR scored this
- Event
- Fx Policy Wait
- Link to asset
- Relative Rate Expectations
- Uncertainty
- None Identified From Headline
- Sample
- Independent event
- Rule
- Dollar waiting high
-
2
Equities rise with 2-year yields, dollar as rate hike bets rise following Warsh speechPublished · 28 Aug 2026, 23:47 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab. Story noteMay help USDUpWhy: Higher expected US rates can increase the dollar's relative yield support.
- Confidence
- High
- Strength
- Strong
- Headline mood
- Positive
Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.
How OTR scored this
- Event
- Rates Repricing
- Link to asset
- Relative Rate Differential
- Uncertainty
- None Identified From Headline
- Sample
- Independent event
- Rule
- Rate yields dollar
-
3
Inflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meetingPublished · 29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab. Story noteUnclear USDNo directionWhy: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.
- Confidence
- Low
- Strength
- Unclear
- Headline mood
- Neutral
Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.
How OTR scored this
- Event
- No Asset Specific Rule
- Link to asset
- Unmapped
- Uncertainty
- No Asset Specific Rule
- Sample
- Independent event
- Rule
- Abstain
-
4
Warsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meetingPublished · 29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab. Story noteUnclear USDNo directionWhy: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.
- Confidence
- Low
- Strength
- Unclear
- Headline mood
- Neutral
Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.
How OTR scored this
- Event
- No Asset Specific Rule
- Link to asset
- Unmapped
- Uncertainty
- No Asset Specific Rule
- Sample
- Independent event
- Rule
- Abstain
Prediction history · 1 earlier · newest first
-
Prediction 2
Fall expected · 98.79000091552734 USDPROOF RECEIPT · Right (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED) - Published
- Deadline
Graph LearningHow news has moved U.S. Dollar Index beforeOpen the complete asset-specific memory
OTR GRAPH LEARNING
An extra check. It does not replace the other evidence.What OTR sees for U.S. Dollar Index
What this is: The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (often called DXY), a fixed-weight geometric basket measuring the dollar against the euro, yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc. It is not a broad trade-weighted measure of every currency.
Headlines that may cause the price of this investment to go up
- U.S. policy-rate or inflation surprises that raise expected U.S. yields relative to the six basket economies.
- Stronger U.S. growth or labour data relative to Europe, Japan, the United Kingdom, Canada, Sweden, and Switzerland.
- Safe-haven or dollar-funding demand during global financial stress.
Headlines that may cause the price of this investment to go down
- Federal Reserve easing or U.S. data weakness relative to basket economies.
- Falling U.S. real yields or narrowing rate differentials.
- Reduced global funding stress and stronger risk appetite that unwinds defensive dollar demand.
What OTR checks
- ICE USDX spot and futures with current contract metadata
- Federal Reserve and six basket-central-bank decisions and expected paths
- Two-year and real-yield differentials
- U.S. and basket-economy inflation, employment, GDP, and business surveys
12 saved news time checks4 completed2 rose0 fell2 roughly flat
1 supportive, 0 pressuring and 3 mixed or unclear asset-specific news signals.
4 linked headlines classified for this investment; 4 independent event samples. 2 of 2 clear checked moves matched the research direction.
Open the full Graph Learning analysis
- Past
- OTR has 12 saved headline-response checks for this investment: 4 completed, including 2 rises, 0 falls and 2 roughly flat moves. Each row keeps the original source and its news time when that time is verifiable; unresolved times stay explicit and add no weight.
- Now
- News that may help includes U.S. policy-rate or inflation surprises that raise expected U.S. yields relative to the six basket economies.; Stronger U.S. growth or labour data relative to Europe, Japan, the United Kingdom, Canada, Sweden, and Switzerland.. News that may hurt includes Federal Reserve easing or U.S. data weakness relative to basket economies.; Falling U.S. real yields or narrowing rate differentials.. OTR also watches ICE USDX spot and futures with current contract metadata, Federal Reserve and six basket-central-bank decisions and expected paths, Two-year and real-yield differentials.
- Next prediction
- For a future prediction, OTR compares the new event with this investment's own saved reactions, then checks the wider market and named other possible causes. One headline never decides a call by itself.
- When this can mislead
- DXY's fixed six-currency basket is heavily euro-weighted and is not the global trade-weighted dollar.; Strong U.S. data can weaken the dollar if expectations were even stronger.; Risk-off episodes can strengthen both the dollar and other safe havens.; Rate differentials can be offset by intervention, funding stress, or positioning.
Saved headline-move memory
- Dollar flat near one-week high as investors await Warsh's Jackson Hole debut28 Aug 2026, 10:34 SGT1h · was roughly flat 0.01%4h · was roughly flat 0.01%20h · not checked yet
- Equities rise with 2-year yields, dollar as rate hike bets rise following Warsh speech28 Aug 2026, 23:47 SGT1h · rose 0.09%4h · rose 0.09%20h · not checked yet
- Inflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meeting29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGT1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
- Warsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meeting29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGT1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Clue, not proof: timing is a clue, never proof. A price move after a headline does not prove the headline caused it. OTR uses a pattern only after it repeats and still holds up against the wider market.