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Oil futures: predictions, prices and linked headlines

This page keeps every Oil futures prediction and source-timed headline together. Every marker is read from the frozen monthly snapshot; later Graph changes cannot rewrite it.

Line = price · P = prediction published · number = headline published.

← See all investments in August 2026

investments
1
Predictions
9
Linked headlines
8
Timed events
17

Frozen monthly Graph snapshot: saved record · as of 2026-08-31T08:36:31.370+08:00. The 5 September publication added zero new graph markers or predictions; Graph totals count preserved per-investment records and the prediction record remains the outcome authority. The source and public snapshot are file check-locked and later publishes cannot modify them.

How OTR judges a headline

OTR asks what the event may do to this investment—not whether the words sound happy or scary. May help, may hurt, mixed or unclear is shown beside each linked headline. Later prices test the idea; timing alone never proves cause.

  1. 01

    Oil futures

    CL=F · energy_future · 9 prediction records

    Evidence
    Publication markers · exact horizontal time
    Loading public price line and publication markers…
    Prediction 1 Prediction published1 Headline publishedPrediction 1 entry priceGraph badges open evidence. Timeline items jump to matching cards.
    Chart readoutPrediction 1 is Fall expected ↓. Visible result record: PENDING AT GRAPH SNAPSHOT. 17 of 17 timed publication events are placed from left to right.
    Latest public price · never a ledger grade
    Last public price
    Loading public price data…
    From Prediction 1 entry
    Entry 83.19 USD
    Latest call
    Fall expected ↓
    Publication markers
    17 of 17 timed
    Publication timelineOldest → newest

    Left to right matches the graph. Select an event to jump to its full card.

    1. Prediction 9Prediction Prediction 9 · 20 Aug 2026, 15:21 SGTRise expected prediction85.059997559 USD · No result recorded
    2. Prediction 8Prediction Prediction 8 · 20 Aug 2026, 17:22 SGTRise expected prediction86.440002441 USD · No result recorded
    3. Prediction 7Prediction Prediction 7 · 20 Aug 2026, 20:41 SGTRise expected prediction87.54000091552734 USD · PROOF RECEIPT · Wrong (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
    4. Prediction 6Prediction Prediction 6 · 21 Aug 2026, 01:53 SGTRise expected prediction86.66000366210938 USD · Right
    5. Prediction 5Prediction Prediction 5 · 25 Aug 2026, 10:11 SGTFall expected prediction85.5 USD · No result recorded
    6. Prediction 4Prediction Prediction 4 · 25 Aug 2026, 15:22 SGTFall expected prediction84.36000061035156 USD · No result recorded
    7. Prediction 3Prediction Prediction 3 · 25 Aug 2026, 17:43 SGTFall expected prediction82.7300033569336 USD · No result recorded
    8. Prediction 2Prediction Prediction 2 · 26 Aug 2026, 07:53 SGTFall expected prediction81.019997 USD · Wrong
    9. 1Headline 1 · 27 Aug 2026, 11:39 SGTShipping traffic through Strait of Hormuz rises slightly, data showsCompany Or Asset
    10. 2Headline 2 · 28 Aug 2026, 09:13 SGTOil on track for weekly loss even as Iran tensions simmerCompany Or Asset
    11. Prediction 1Prediction Prediction 1 · 28 Aug 2026, 11:34 SGTFall expected prediction83.19 USD · PENDING AT GRAPH SNAPSHOT
    12. 3Headline 3 · 28 Aug 2026, 21:05 SGTMarkets hold their breath before the Fed speech as oil falls and gold waitsMacro Or Policy
    13. 4Headline 4 · 28 Aug 2026, 23:47 SGTEquities rise with 2-year yields, dollar as rate hike bets rise following Warsh speechCompany Or Asset
    14. 5Headline 5 · 29 Aug 2026, 10:04 SGTWar and sanctions weigh on Iran's economy as trade fallsCompany Or Asset
    15. 6Headline 6 · 29 Aug 2026, 10:04 SGTIran maintains its claim of control over the Strait of HormuzCompany Or Asset
    16. 7Headline 7 · 31 Aug 2026, 04:38 SGTU.S. forces strike Iranian launchers on Larak IslandCompany Or Asset
    17. 8Headline 8 · 31 Aug 2026, 06:12 SGTOil jumps more than 2% after U.S. attack on Iran's Larak IslandCompany Or Asset

    Latest prediction · Prediction 1

    1. Prediction 1
      Fall expected · 83.19 USDPENDING AT GRAPH SNAPSHOT
      Published
      Deadline

    Headlines · 8 · oldest first

    1. 1
      Shipping traffic through Strait of Hormuz rises slightly, data showsPublished · 27 Aug 2026, 11:39 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.
      Story noteMay hurt CL=F
      Down

      Why: More shipping traffic after a truce can reduce the disruption premium embedded in crude prices.

      Confidence
      High
      Strength
      Moderate
      Headline mood
      Positive

      Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

      How OTR scored this
      Event
      Energy Shipping Normalisation
      Link to asset
      Supply Disruption Risk Premium
      Uncertainty
      None Identified From Headline
      Sample
      Independent event
      Rule
      Hormuz traffic normalising
    2. 2
      Oil on track for weekly loss even as Iran tensions simmerPublished · 28 Aug 2026, 09:13 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.
      Story noteMay hurt CL=F
      Down

      Why: The headline reports a weekly oil loss, a direct but backward-looking pressure signal.

      Confidence
      High
      Strength
      Moderate
      Headline mood
      Negative

      Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

      How OTR scored this
      Event
      Oil Price Weakness
      Link to asset
      Reported Price Momentum
      Uncertainty
      None Identified From Headline
      Sample
      Independent event
      Rule
      Oil weekly loss
    3. 3
      Markets hold their breath before the Fed speech as oil falls and gold waitsPublished · 28 Aug 2026, 21:05 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.
      Story noteMay hurt CL=F
      Down

      Why: The headline reports falling oil prices while markets wait for a catalyst.

      Confidence
      High
      Strength
      Light
      Headline mood
      Negative

      Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

      How OTR scored this
      Event
      Cross Asset Waiting
      Link to asset
      Reported Price Pressure
      Uncertainty
      None Identified From Headline
      Sample
      Independent event
      Rule
      Oil and gold wait
    4. 4
      Equities rise with 2-year yields, dollar as rate hike bets rise following Warsh speechPublished · 28 Aug 2026, 23:47 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.
      Story notePushes both ways CL=F
      Mixed

      Why: Rates and the dollar can affect oil through several opposing channels, so this headline alone is not directional for crude.

      Confidence
      Medium
      Strength
      Unclear
      Headline mood
      Positive

      Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

      How OTR scored this
      Event
      Rates Repricing
      Link to asset
      Growth Expectations Versus Dollar
      Uncertainty
      None Identified From Headline
      Sample
      Independent event
      Rule
      Rate yields dollar
    5. 5
      War and sanctions weigh on Iran's economy as trade fallsPublished · 29 Aug 2026, 10:04 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.
      Story noteUnclear CL=F
      No direction

      Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

      Confidence
      Low
      Strength
      Unclear
      Headline mood
      Negative

      Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

      How OTR scored this
      Event
      No Asset Specific Rule
      Link to asset
      Unmapped
      Uncertainty
      No Asset Specific Rule
      Sample
      Independent event
      Rule
      Abstain
    6. 6
      Iran maintains its claim of control over the Strait of HormuzPublished · 29 Aug 2026, 10:04 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.
      Story noteUnclear CL=F
      No direction

      Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

      Confidence
      Low
      Strength
      Unclear
      Headline mood
      Neutral

      Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

      How OTR scored this
      Event
      No Asset Specific Rule
      Link to asset
      Unmapped
      Uncertainty
      No Asset Specific Rule
      Sample
      Duplicate coverage; not counted twice
      Rule
      Abstain
    7. 7
      U.S. forces strike Iranian launchers on Larak IslandPublished · 31 Aug 2026, 04:38 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.
      Story noteUnclear CL=F
      No direction

      Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

      Confidence
      Low
      Strength
      Unclear
      Headline mood
      Neutral

      Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

      How OTR scored this
      Event
      No Asset Specific Rule
      Link to asset
      Unmapped
      Uncertainty
      No Asset Specific Rule
      Sample
      Independent event
      Rule
      Abstain
    8. 8
      Oil jumps more than 2% after U.S. attack on Iran's Larak IslandPublished · 31 Aug 2026, 06:12 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.
      Story noteUnclear CL=F
      No direction

      Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

      Confidence
      Low
      Strength
      Unclear
      Headline mood
      Neutral

      Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

      How OTR scored this
      Event
      No Asset Specific Rule
      Link to asset
      Unmapped
      Uncertainty
      No Asset Specific Rule
      Sample
      Independent event
      Rule
      Abstain

    Prediction history · 8 earlier · newest first

    1. Prediction 2
      Fall expected · 81.019997 USDWrong
      Published
      Deadline
    2. Prediction 3
      Fall expected · 82.7300033569336 USDNo result recorded
      Published
      Deadline
    3. Prediction 4
      Fall expected · 84.36000061035156 USDNo result recorded
      Published
      Deadline
    4. Prediction 5
      Fall expected · 85.5 USDNo result recorded
      Published
      Deadline
    5. Prediction 6
      Rise expected · 86.66000366210938 USDRight
      Published
      Deadline
    6. Prediction 7
      Rise expected · 87.54000091552734 USDPROOF RECEIPT · Wrong (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
      Published
      Deadline
    7. Prediction 8
      Rise expected · 86.440002441 USDNo result recorded
      Published
      Deadline
    8. Prediction 9
      Rise expected · 85.059997559 USDNo result recorded
      Published
      Deadline

    Frozen archive boundary: this page preserves the August markers and prediction records. Later Graph Learning data is kept on the current Graph and cannot rewrite this snapshot.