PUBLIC PREDICTION RECEIPT
OTR predicted iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF would fall
fa445748761d170ff020ff48c5d3c67d0f89863afad79ab35c90ae686003a5d7
- Asset
- iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF · TLT
- Direction
- DOWN
- Created
- Deadline
- Entry
- 82.34 USD
- Deadline price
- Checking…
- Raw return
- Checking…
- Relevant market return
- Checking…
- Market-adjusted result
- Checking…
- Founder result
- Correct ✓
- Scientific event verdict
- Inconclusive until all required evidence passes
- Record status
- Original prediction cannot be secretly changed
Original frozen reason
Fall expected: higher oil and inflation-sensitive rate pressure weigh on long duration, the two-source live lock is negative, and the pre-publication beta-binomial 20-hour base rate is below one half. The contradiction is explicit: weak growth or a flight to safety could pull long yields down and lift TLT.
Invalidation condition
Invalidate the thesis if long yields fall on verified weak-growth or flight-to-quality evidence and TLT holds above its saved entry.
Calculating synchronized evidence without changing the Founder result.
Sources, file checks and audit history
- Prediction row file check
- 5dfc12b9560fd80608762bb8c927855f72db18c38087b40ed05f4952cf05eb8f
- Prediction receipt file check
- fa445748761d170ff020ff48c5d3c67d0f89863afad79ab35c90ae686003a5d7
- Outcome append file check
- 4eccd4d746a8b41afe5fc26408b4e266ab0283526fbee5943e7d9d41a9f69303
- Model / method
- saved record · saved record
Founder Right/Wrong is authoritative and can only be changed by the Founder. Market-adjusted measurements are read-only observations and never mutate that ledger.