GRAPH · SMH

VanEck Semiconductor ETF: predictions, prices and linked headlines

This page keeps every VanEck Semiconductor ETF prediction and source-timed headline together. The Founder result remains separate from later price evidence.

Line = price · P = prediction published · number = headline published.

← See all investments

investments: 1
Predictions: 2
Linked headlines: 12
Timed events: 14

6 September 2026 graph update: 0 new story markers and 0 prediction points were added for this edition. The preserved history below keeps its original dates.

How OTR judges a headline

OTR asks what the event may do to this investment—not whether the words sound happy or scary. May help, may hurt, mixed or unclear is shown beside each linked headline. Later prices test the idea; timing alone never proves cause.

WHAT HAPPENED NEXT

What happened after saved stories about VanEck Semiconductor ETF

12 saved story matches

12 of 36 possible later-price checks are available.

33 out of 100 ready for comparison

This measures how many required prices were saved. It does not measure prediction skill.

Rose in 67% of its 3 complete twenty-hour checks

This only describes the past. It does not predict the next move.

Showing all 12 saved events. Open each row for the actual price times, source and earlier comparisons.

Saved story

Published

After 1 hour

After 4 hours

After 20 hours

Earlier comparisons and evidence

The US administration was reported to be considering higher chip tariffs.

2026-09-02 23:38:00 Singapore time

-0.11%

-0.33%

Not measured

1 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

Nvidia forecasts roughly 70% sales growth next fiscal year · 2026-08-27T04:24:22.095+08:00 · Rose (2.56%)

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	551.6599731445312 2026-09-02T15:40:00.000Z	551.030029296875 2026-09-02T16:40:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
4 hours	551.6599731445312 2026-09-02T15:40:00.000Z	549.8200073242188 2026-09-02T19:40:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to VanEck Semiconductor ETF.

Supporting reports

The US administration was reported to be considering higher chip tariffs.

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
BIS rules establish legal restrictions, not an SMH price effect.
Company-specific exposure requires current holdings and issuer filings at the event time.
A sector demand headline must be separated from concentration, valuation, inventory, and geographic risk.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-09-02T23:38:00+08:00
Similar earlier cases: 1 similar earlier case

How sure is OTR?
Insufficient evidenceNo confidence number is shown because source quality, independent reports, freshness, opposing evidence, earlier comparisons, time accuracy are not fully measured.

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

iPronics raised €107 million in a round involving Nvidia and Criteria.

2026-09-02 23:29:00 Singapore time

-0.07%

-0.23%

-0.82%

1 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

Nvidia forecasts roughly 70% sales growth next fiscal year · 2026-08-27T04:24:22.095+08:00 · Rose (2.56%)

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	551.510009765625 2026-09-02T15:30:00.000Z	551.1400146484375 2026-09-02T16:30:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
4 hours	551.510009765625 2026-09-02T15:30:00.000Z	550.22998046875 2026-09-02T19:30:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
20 hours	551.510009765625 2026-09-02T15:30:00.000Z	547 2026-09-03T11:30:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to VanEck Semiconductor ETF.

Supporting reports

iPronics raised €107 million in a round involving Nvidia and Criteria.

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
BIS rules establish legal restrictions, not an SMH price effect.
Company-specific exposure requires current holdings and issuer filings at the event time.
A sector demand headline must be separated from concentration, valuation, inventory, and geographic risk.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-09-02T23:29:00+08:00
Similar earlier cases: 1 similar earlier case

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

IonQ, NVIDIA and qBraid reported lower error in a quantum-simulation demonstration.

2026-09-02 07:33:17 Singapore time

Not measured

+0.93%

1 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

Nvidia forecasts roughly 70% sales growth next fiscal year · 2026-08-27T04:24:22.095+08:00 · Rose (2.56%)

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	545.2137 2026-09-01T23:35:00.000Z	550.2849731445312 2026-09-02T19:35:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to VanEck Semiconductor ETF.

Supporting reports

IonQ, NVIDIA and qBraid reported lower error in a quantum-simulation demonstration.

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
BIS rules establish legal restrictions, not an SMH price effect.
Company-specific exposure requires current holdings and issuer filings at the event time.
A sector demand headline must be separated from concentration, valuation, inventory, and geographic risk.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-09-02T07:33:17+08:00
Similar earlier cases: 1 similar earlier case

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Global bond rout deepens as oil prices jump; wheat prices reach their highest since early 2023

2026-09-01 14:46:00 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to VanEck Semiconductor ETF.

Supporting reports

Global bond rout deepens as oil prices jump; wheat prices reach their highest since early 2023

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
BIS rules establish legal restrictions, not an SMH price effect.
Company-specific exposure requires current holdings and issuer filings at the event time.
A sector demand headline must be separated from concentration, valuation, inventory, and geographic risk.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-09-01T14:46:00+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Inflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meeting

2026-08-29 21:59:45.000 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to VanEck Semiconductor ETF.

Supporting reports

Inflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meeting

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
BIS rules establish legal restrictions, not an SMH price effect.
Company-specific exposure requires current holdings and issuer filings at the event time.
A sector demand headline must be separated from concentration, valuation, inventory, and geographic risk.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-29T21:59:45.000+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Warsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meeting

2026-08-29 21:59:45.000 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to VanEck Semiconductor ETF.

Supporting reports

Warsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meeting

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
BIS rules establish legal restrictions, not an SMH price effect.
Company-specific exposure requires current holdings and issuer filings at the event time.
A sector demand headline must be separated from concentration, valuation, inventory, and geographic risk.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-29T21:59:45.000+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

CXMT will supply LPDDR6 memory for Xiaomi's next foldable phone

2026-08-29 11:29:37.060 Singapore time

Not measured

1 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

Nvidia forecasts roughly 70% sales growth next fiscal year · 2026-08-27T04:24:22.095+08:00 · Rose (2.56%)

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to VanEck Semiconductor ETF.

Supporting reports

CXMT will supply LPDDR6 memory for Xiaomi's next foldable phone

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
BIS rules establish legal restrictions, not an SMH price effect.
Company-specific exposure requires current holdings and issuer filings at the event time.
A sector demand headline must be separated from concentration, valuation, inventory, and geographic risk.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-29T11:29:37.060+08:00
Similar earlier cases: 1 similar earlier case

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

CXMT sues the Pentagon over its military-linked company designation

2026-08-29 08:18:34.750 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to VanEck Semiconductor ETF.

Supporting reports

CXMT sues the Pentagon over its military-linked company designation

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
BIS rules establish legal restrictions, not an SMH price effect.
Company-specific exposure requires current holdings and issuer filings at the event time.
A sector demand headline must be separated from concentration, valuation, inventory, and geographic risk.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-29T08:18:34.750+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Stocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold up

2026-08-28 09:56:49.203 Singapore time

Not measured

1 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

Nvidia forecasts roughly 70% sales growth next fiscal year · 2026-08-27T04:24:22.095+08:00 · Rose (2.56%)

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to VanEck Semiconductor ETF.

Supporting reports

Stocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold up

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
BIS rules establish legal restrictions, not an SMH price effect.
Company-specific exposure requires current holdings and issuer filings at the event time.
A sector demand headline must be separated from concentration, valuation, inventory, and geographic risk.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-28T09:56:49.203+08:00
Similar earlier cases: 1 similar earlier case

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

SK Hynix to start AI chip output in Indiana in 2029, sees memory shortage through 2030

2026-08-27 22:02:00.000 Singapore time

+0.53%

+0.36%

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	566.7000122070312 2026-08-27T14:05:00.000Z	569.6900024414062 2026-08-27T15:05:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
4 hours	566.7000122070312 2026-08-27T14:05:00.000Z	568.7349853515625 2026-08-27T18:05:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to VanEck Semiconductor ETF.

Supporting reports

SK Hynix to start AI chip output in Indiana in 2029, sees memory shortage through 2030

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
BIS rules establish legal restrictions, not an SMH price effect.
Company-specific exposure requires current holdings and issuer filings at the event time.
A sector demand headline must be separated from concentration, valuation, inventory, and geographic risk.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-27T22:02:00.000+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Trump team considers broad chip tariffs

2026-08-27 17:59:00.000 Singapore time

+0.10%

-1.47%

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	573.06 2026-08-27T10:00:00.000Z	573.61 2026-08-27T11:00:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
4 hours	573.06 2026-08-27T10:00:00.000Z	564.6199951171875 2026-08-27T14:00:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to VanEck Semiconductor ETF.

Supporting reports

Trump team considers broad chip tariffs

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
BIS rules establish legal restrictions, not an SMH price effect.
Company-specific exposure requires current holdings and issuer filings at the event time.
A sector demand headline must be separated from concentration, valuation, inventory, and geographic risk.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-27T17:59:00.000+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Nvidia forecasts roughly 70% sales growth next fiscal year

2026-08-27 04:24:22.095 Singapore time

+1.76%

Not measured

+2.56%

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	555.01 2026-08-26T20:25:00.000Z	564.8 2026-08-26T21:25:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	555.01 2026-08-26T20:25:00.000Z	569.219970703125 2026-08-27T16:25:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to VanEck Semiconductor ETF.

Supporting reports

Nvidia forecasts roughly 70% sales growth next fiscal year

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
BIS rules establish legal restrictions, not an SMH price effect.
Company-specific exposure requires current holdings and issuer filings at the event time.
A sector demand headline must be separated from concentration, valuation, inventory, and geographic risk.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-27T04:24:22.095+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

How to read this: a later price shows what followed, not what caused the move. Comparisons use the same market and kind of news, with results already available before this story appeared.

01
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
SMH · etf · 2 prediction records
Evidence
Publication markers · exact horizontal time

Loading public price line and publication markers…

Prediction 1 Prediction published1 Headline publishedPrediction 1 entry priceGraph badges open evidence. Timeline items jump to matching cards.

Chart readoutPrediction 1 is Rise expected ↑. Visible result record: PROOF RECEIPT · Right (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED). 14 of 14 timed publication events are placed from left to right.
Latest public price · never a ledger grade

Last public price
Loading public price data…
From Prediction 1 entry
Entry 587.82 USD
Latest call
Rise expected ↑
Publication markers
14 of 14 timed
Publication timelineOldest → newest
Left to right matches the graph. Select an event to jump to its full card.

Prediction 2Prediction Prediction 2 · 11 Aug 2026, 10:17 SGTRise expected prediction569.41 USD · No result recorded
Prediction 1Prediction Prediction 1 · 17 Aug 2026, 20:19 SGTRise expected prediction587.82 USD · PROOF RECEIPT · Right (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
1Headline 1 · 27 Aug 2026, 04:24 SGTNvidia forecasts roughly 70% sales growth next fiscal yearCompany Or Asset
2Headline 2 · 27 Aug 2026, 17:59 SGTTrump team considers broad chip tariffsSector
3Headline 3 · 27 Aug 2026, 22:02 SGTSK Hynix to start AI chip output in Indiana in 2029, sees memory shortage through 2030Sector
4Headline 4 · 28 Aug 2026, 09:56 SGTStocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold upCompany Or Asset
5Headline 5 · 29 Aug 2026, 08:18 SGTCXMT sues the Pentagon over its military-linked company designationMacro Or Policy
6Headline 6 · 29 Aug 2026, 11:29 SGTCXMT will supply LPDDR6 memory for Xiaomi's next foldable phoneCompany Or Asset
7Headline 7 · 29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGTInflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meetingMacro Or Policy
8Headline 8 · 29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGTWarsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meetingMacro Or Policy
9Headline 9 · 01 Sept 2026, 14:46 SGTGlobal bond rout deepens as oil prices jump; wheat prices reach their highest since early 2023Macro Or Policy
10Headline 10 · 02 Sept 2026, 07:33 SGTIonQ, NVIDIA and qBraid reported lower error in a quantum-simulation demonstration.Company Or Asset
11Headline 11 · 02 Sept 2026, 23:29 SGTiPronics raised €107 million in a round involving Nvidia and Criteria.Company Or Asset
12Headline 12 · 02 Sept 2026, 23:38 SGTThe US administration was reported to be considering higher chip tariffs.Company Or Asset
Latest prediction · Prediction 1
Prediction 1

Rise expected · 587.82 USDPROOF RECEIPT · Right (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)

Published
17 Aug 2026, 20:19 SGT
Deadline
18 Aug 2026, 16:19 SGT

System analysis · What the saved history shows
What the saved history shows: locked proof receipt Right. This is a traceable read-only result, not a Founder stamp. Prediction 1 remains at its original publication time.

A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Founder result.

Prediction 1 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
Headlines · 12 · oldest first
1

Nvidia forecasts roughly 70% sales growth next fiscal yearPublished · 27 Aug 2026, 04:24 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · What the saved history shows
What the saved history shows: linked to VanEck Semiconductor ETF by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High importance 79/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Semiconductors & HardwareHigh · 79/100Source time verified

Story noteUnclear SMH
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Positive

What happened later20h · Not suitable for a direction check · 0.00%Association only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

2

Trump team considers broad chip tariffsPublished · 27 Aug 2026, 17:59 SGT · SectorOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · What the saved history shows
What the saved history shows: linked to VanEck Semiconductor ETF by a deterministic entity-name match. Saved importance: High importance 89/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Semiconductors & HardwareHigh · 89/100Source time verified

Story noteMay hurt SMH
Down

Why: Broad chip tariffs could raise costs or disrupt demand across semiconductor holdings, but the policy is only being considered.

Confidence
Medium
Strength
Moderate
Headline mood
Negative

What happened later20h · Not suitable for a direction check · 0.00%Association only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
Semiconductor Trade Policy
Link to asset
Costs Demand And Supply Chain
Uncertainty
Modal Language
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Chip tariff proposal

Original source ↗

3

SK Hynix to start AI chip output in Indiana in 2029, sees memory shortage through 2030Published · 27 Aug 2026, 22:02 SGT · SectorOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · What the saved history shows
What the saved history shows: linked to VanEck Semiconductor ETF by a deterministic entity-name match. Saved importance: High importance 85/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Semiconductors & HardwareHigh · 85/100Source time verified

Story notePushes both ways SMH
Mixed

Why: New AI-chip capacity signals durable demand, while a memory shortage can also constrain industry output and raise costs.

Confidence
Medium
Strength
Moderate
Headline mood
Negative

What happened later20h · Not suitable for a direction check · -0.22%Association only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
Semiconductor Capacity And Demand
Link to asset
Ai Demand Versus Supply Constraint
Uncertainty
None Identified From Headline
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Ai chip capacity shortage

Original source ↗

4

Stocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold upPublished · 28 Aug 2026, 09:56 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · What the saved history shows
What the saved history shows: linked to VanEck Semiconductor ETF by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: Medium importance 73/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Equities / Stock MarketsMedium · 73/100Source time verified

Story noteUnclear SMH
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Negative

What happened later20h · Not suitable for a direction check · 0.00%Association only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

5

CXMT sues the Pentagon over its military-linked company designationPublished · 29 Aug 2026, 08:18 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · What the saved history shows
What the saved history shows: linked to VanEck Semiconductor ETF by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High importance 89/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Semiconductors & HardwareHigh · 89/100Source time verified

Story noteUnclear SMH
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · Not suitable for a direction check · 0.00%Association only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

6

CXMT will supply LPDDR6 memory for Xiaomi's next foldable phonePublished · 29 Aug 2026, 11:29 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · What the saved history shows
What the saved history shows: linked to VanEck Semiconductor ETF by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: Medium importance 73/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Semiconductors & HardwareMedium · 73/100Source time verified

Story noteUnclear SMH
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · Not suitable for a direction check · 0.00%Association only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

7

Inflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meetingPublished · 29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · What the saved history shows
What the saved history shows: linked to VanEck Semiconductor ETF by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High importance 88/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Public Policy & GovernmentHigh · 88/100Source time verified

Story noteUnclear SMH
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · Not suitable for a direction check · 0.00%Association only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

8

Warsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meetingPublished · 29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · What the saved history shows
What the saved history shows: linked to VanEck Semiconductor ETF by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: Medium importance 72/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Public Policy & GovernmentMedium · 72/100Source time verified

Story noteUnclear SMH
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · Not suitable for a direction check · 0.00%Association only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

9

Global bond rout deepens as oil prices jump; wheat prices reach their highest since early 2023Published · 01 Sept 2026, 14:46 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · What the saved history shows
What the saved history shows: linked to VanEck Semiconductor ETF by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High importance 89/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

CommoditiesHigh · 89/100Source time verified

Story noteUnclear SMH
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · Not suitable for a direction check · 0.00%Association only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

10

IonQ, NVIDIA and qBraid reported lower error in a quantum-simulation demonstration.Published · 02 Sept 2026, 07:33 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · What the saved history shows
What the saved history shows: linked to VanEck Semiconductor ETF by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High importance 82/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

earlier rule Source-timed Current EventsHigh · 82/100Source time verified

Story noteUnclear SMH
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · Not suitable for a direction check · +0.75%Association only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

11

iPronics raised €107 million in a round involving Nvidia and Criteria.Published · 02 Sept 2026, 23:29 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · What the saved history shows
What the saved history shows: linked to VanEck Semiconductor ETF by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High importance 86/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

earlier rule Source-timed Current EventsHigh · 86/100Source time verified

Story noteUnclear SMH
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · Not suitable for a direction check · -0.74%Association only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

12

The US administration was reported to be considering higher chip tariffs.Published · 02 Sept 2026, 23:38 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · What the saved history shows
What the saved history shows: linked to VanEck Semiconductor ETF by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High importance 86/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

earlier rule Source-timed Current EventsHigh · 86/100Source time verified

Story noteMay hurt SMH
Down

Why: Broad chip tariffs could raise costs or disrupt demand across semiconductor holdings, but the policy is only being considered.

Confidence
Medium
Strength
Moderate
Headline mood
Negative

What happened later20h · Price moved in the expected direction · -0.81%Association only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
Semiconductor Trade Policy
Link to asset
Costs Demand And Supply Chain
Uncertainty
Modal Language
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Chip tariff proposal

Original source ↗
Prediction history · 1 earlier · newest first
1. Prediction 2
  
  Rise expected · 569.41 USDNo result recorded
  
  Published
  11 Aug 2026, 10:17 SGT
  Deadline
  12 Aug 2026, 06:17 SGT
  
  System analysis · What the saved history shows
  What the saved history shows: no locked row verdict was available as of 2026-09-06T01:40:00.000+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no Right or Wrong is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Founder result.
  
  Prediction 2 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
Graph LearningHow news has moved VanEck Semiconductor ETF beforeOpen the complete asset-specific memory
OTR GRAPH LEARNING
What OTR sees for VanEck Semiconductor ETF
An extra check. It does not replace the other evidence.

What this is: A concentrated ETF of large, liquid U.S.-listed semiconductor producers and equipment companies, including foreign issuers listed in the United States.
Headlines that may cause the price of this investment to go up
Confirmed growth in data-centre, AI accelerator, memory, networking, automotive, industrial, or handset demand across major holdings.
Revenue, margin, or order guidance raised by top-weighted chip designers, foundries, memory makers, or equipment suppliers.
Foundry utilisation, advanced packaging, memory pricing, or equipment bookings improving without unsustainable inventory builds.
Headlines that may cause the price of this investment to go down
Export controls, licence denials, sanctions, or customer restrictions that reduce addressable sales or equipment service.
Inventory correction, order cancellations, lower utilisation, or falling memory and chip prices.
Earnings misses, gross-margin pressure, capex cuts, or delayed product ramps at top holdings.
What OTR checks
SMH daily holdings and top-weight concentration
Revenue, margins, orders, capex, utilisation, inventory, and guidance of top holdings
Foundry and advanced-packaging capacity and yields
Memory prices and inventory days
36 saved news time checks12 completed4 rose7 fell1 roughly flat

ASSET-SPECIFIC NEWS MEMORYWhat the news may mean here
0 supportive, 2 pressuring and 10 mixed or unclear asset-specific news signals.
12 linked headlines classified for this investment; 12 independent event samples. 4 of 4 clear checked moves matched the research direction.
Can OTR use this for a prediction yet?Not for extra weight yet. The label must be frozen before the outcome and repeat in forward checks first.
Open the full Graph Learning analysis
Past
OTR has 36 saved headline-response checks for this investment: 12 completed, including 4 rises, 7 falls and 1 roughly flat moves. Each row keeps the original source and its news time when that time is verifiable; unresolved times stay explicit and add no weight.
Now
News that may help includes Confirmed growth in data-centre, AI accelerator, memory, networking, automotive, industrial, or handset demand across major holdings.; Revenue, margin, or order guidance raised by top-weighted chip designers, foundries, memory makers, or equipment suppliers.. News that may hurt includes Export controls, licence denials, sanctions, or customer restrictions that reduce addressable sales or equipment service.; Inventory correction, order cancellations, lower utilisation, or falling memory and chip prices.. OTR also watches SMH daily holdings and top-weight concentration, Revenue, margins, orders, capex, utilisation, inventory, and guidance of top holdings, Foundry and advanced-packaging capacity and yields.
Next prediction
For a future prediction, OTR compares the new event with this investment's own saved reactions, then checks the wider market and named other possible causes. One headline never decides a call by itself.
When this can mislead
SMH is concentrated; one top holding can dominate the ETF.; AI spending can help designers while hurting customers' cash flow or leaving other semiconductor segments weak.; Export controls affect firms differently through products, destinations, licences, and workarounds.; Semiconductor revenue recognition and inventory cycles lag end demand.
Saved headline-move memory
Nvidia forecasts roughly 70% sales growth next fiscal year27 Aug 2026, 04:24 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Trump team considers broad chip tariffs27 Aug 2026, 17:59 SGT
1h · fell 0.13%4h · fell 1.69%20h · not checked yet
SK Hynix to start AI chip output in Indiana in 2029, sees memory shortage through 203027 Aug 2026, 22:02 SGT
1h · rose 0.54%4h · rose 0.37%20h · rose 0.06%
Stocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold up28 Aug 2026, 09:56 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
CXMT sues the Pentagon over its military-linked company designation29 Aug 2026, 08:18 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
CXMT will supply LPDDR6 memory for Xiaomi's next foldable phone29 Aug 2026, 11:29 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Inflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meeting29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Warsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meeting29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Global bond rout deepens as oil prices jump; wheat prices reach their highest since early 202301 Sept 2026, 14:46 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
IonQ, NVIDIA and qBraid reported lower error in a quantum-simulation demonstration.02 Sept 2026, 07:33 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · rose 1.20%
iPronics raised €107 million in a round involving Nvidia and Criteria.02 Sept 2026, 23:29 SGT
1h · fell 0.07%4h · fell 0.23%20h · fell 0.82%
The US administration was reported to be considering higher chip tariffs.02 Sept 2026, 23:38 SGT
1h · was roughly flat 0.02%4h · fell 0.22%20h · fell 0.88%
Clue, not proof: timing is a clue, never proof. A price move after a headline does not prove the headline caused it. OTR uses a pattern only after it repeats and still holds up against the wider market.

One timeline of saved evidence

Stories, original predictions, review deadlines, checked thesis changes and earlier comparisons share the dates shown below. A review deadline is not the date an outcome was recorded. Only saved moments appear.

Open all 16 dated moments

Singapore time	Moment	Saved evidence
11 Aug 2026, 10:17	Prediction	Original rise prediction
12 Aug 2026, 06:17	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
17 Aug 2026, 20:19	Prediction	Original rise prediction
18 Aug 2026, 16:19	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
27 Aug 2026, 04:24	Story	Nvidia forecasts roughly 70% sales growth next fiscal year
27 Aug 2026, 17:59	Story	Trump team considers broad chip tariffs
27 Aug 2026, 22:02	Story	SK Hynix to start AI chip output in Indiana in 2029, sees memory shortage through 2030
28 Aug 2026, 09:56	Story	Stocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold up
29 Aug 2026, 08:18	Story	CXMT sues the Pentagon over its military-linked company designation
29 Aug 2026, 11:29	Story	CXMT will supply LPDDR6 memory for Xiaomi's next foldable phone
29 Aug 2026, 21:59	Story	Inflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meeting
29 Aug 2026, 21:59	Story	Warsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meeting
1 Sept 2026, 14:46	Story	Global bond rout deepens as oil prices jump; wheat prices reach their highest since early 2023
2 Sept 2026, 07:33	Story	IonQ, NVIDIA and qBraid reported lower error in a quantum-simulation demonstration.
2 Sept 2026, 23:29	Story	iPronics raised €107 million in a round involving Nvidia and Criteria.
2 Sept 2026, 23:38	Story	The US administration was reported to be considering higher chip tariffs.

VanEck Semiconductor ETF: predictions, prices and linked headlines

What happened after saved stories about VanEck Semiconductor ETF

12 saved story matches

33 out of 100 ready for comparison

Rose in 67% of its 3 complete twenty-hour checks

Supporting reports

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Latest prediction · Prediction 1

Headlines · 12 · oldest first

Prediction history · 1 earlier · newest first

Headlines that may cause the price of this investment to go up

Headlines that may cause the price of this investment to go down

What OTR checks

Saved headline-move memory

One timeline of saved evidence