US Dollar Index Fund
UUP · currency_etf · 6 prediction records
Publication markers · exact horizontal time
Prediction 1 Prediction published1 Headline publishedPrediction 1 entry priceGraph badges open evidence. Timeline items jump to matching cards.
Chart readoutPrediction 1 is Fall expected ↓. Visible result record: No result recorded. 11 of 11 timed publication events are placed from left to right.
Latest public price · never a ledger grade- Last public price
- Loading public price data…
- From Prediction 1 entry
- Entry 28.139999389648438 USD
- Latest call
- Fall expected ↓
- Publication markers
- 11 of 11 timed
Publication timelineOldest → newest
Left to right matches the graph. Select an event to jump to its full card.
- Prediction 6Prediction Prediction 6 · 11 Aug 2026, 10:17 SGTFall expected prediction28.14 USD · No result recorded
- Prediction 5Prediction Prediction 5 · 12 Aug 2026, 20:15 SGTRise expected prediction28.14 USD · PROOF RECEIPT · Right (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
- Prediction 4Prediction Prediction 4 · 14 Aug 2026, 09:32 SGTRise expected prediction28.18 USD · PROOF RECEIPT · Wrong (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
- Prediction 3Prediction Prediction 3 · 17 Aug 2026, 03:17 SGTRise expected prediction28.11 USD · PROOF RECEIPT · Wrong (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
- Prediction 2Prediction Prediction 2 · 17 Aug 2026, 20:19 SGTFall expected prediction28.11 USD · PROOF RECEIPT · Right (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
- Prediction 1Prediction Prediction 1 · 19 Aug 2026, 20:41 SGTFall expected prediction28.139999389648438 USD · No result recorded
- 1Headline 1 · 28 Aug 2026, 09:56 SGTStocks fall while dollar and bond yields rise after Warsh prompts rate-hike betsCompany Or Asset
- 2Headline 2 · 29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGTInflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meetingMacro Or Policy
- 3Headline 3 · 29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGTWarsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meetingMacro Or Policy
- 4Headline 4 · 31 Aug 2026, 10:28 SGTGold hits near two-week low on Fed chief's hawkish stanceMacro Or Policy
- 5Headline 5 · 02 Sept 2026, 20:47 SGTThe dollar reached a two-week high while markets awaited rate paths.Digital Asset Or Financial Infrastructure
Latest prediction · Prediction 1
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Prediction 1
Fall expected · 28.139999389648438 USDNo result recorded - Published
- Deadline
Headlines · 5 · oldest first
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1
Stocks fall while dollar and bond yields rise after Warsh prompts rate-hike betsPublished · 28 Aug 2026, 09:56 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab. Story noteUnclear UUPNo directionWhy: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.
- Confidence
- Low
- Strength
- Unclear
- Headline mood
- Mixed
Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.
How OTR scored this
- Event
- No Asset Specific Rule
- Link to asset
- Unmapped
- Uncertainty
- No Asset Specific Rule
- Sample
- Independent event
- Rule
- Abstain
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2
Inflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meetingPublished · 29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab. Story noteUnclear UUPNo directionWhy: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.
- Confidence
- Low
- Strength
- Unclear
- Headline mood
- Neutral
Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.
How OTR scored this
- Event
- No Asset Specific Rule
- Link to asset
- Unmapped
- Uncertainty
- No Asset Specific Rule
- Sample
- Independent event
- Rule
- Abstain
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3
Warsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meetingPublished · 29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab. Story noteUnclear UUPNo directionWhy: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.
- Confidence
- Low
- Strength
- Unclear
- Headline mood
- Neutral
Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.
How OTR scored this
- Event
- No Asset Specific Rule
- Link to asset
- Unmapped
- Uncertainty
- No Asset Specific Rule
- Sample
- Independent event
- Rule
- Abstain
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4
Gold hits near two-week low on Fed chief's hawkish stancePublished · 31 Aug 2026, 10:28 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab. Story noteUnclear UUPNo directionWhy: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.
- Confidence
- Low
- Strength
- Unclear
- Headline mood
- Negative
Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.
How OTR scored this
- Event
- No Asset Specific Rule
- Link to asset
- Unmapped
- Uncertainty
- No Asset Specific Rule
- Sample
- Independent event
- Rule
- Abstain
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5
The dollar reached a two-week high while markets awaited rate paths.Published · 02 Sept 2026, 20:47 SGT · Digital Asset Or Financial InfrastructureOpens in a new tab. Story noteUnclear UUPNo directionWhy: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.
- Confidence
- Low
- Strength
- Unclear
- Headline mood
- Positive
Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.
How OTR scored this
- Event
- No Asset Specific Rule
- Link to asset
- Unmapped
- Uncertainty
- No Asset Specific Rule
- Sample
- Independent event
- Rule
- Abstain
Prediction history · 5 earlier · newest first
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Prediction 2
Fall expected · 28.11 USDPROOF RECEIPT · Right (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED) - Published
- Deadline
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Prediction 3
Rise expected · 28.11 USDPROOF RECEIPT · Wrong (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED) - Published
- Deadline
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Prediction 4
Rise expected · 28.18 USDPROOF RECEIPT · Wrong (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED) - Published
- Deadline
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Prediction 5
Rise expected · 28.14 USDPROOF RECEIPT · Right (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED) - Published
- Deadline
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Prediction 6
Fall expected · 28.14 USDNo result recorded - Published
- Deadline
Graph LearningHow news has moved US Dollar Index Fund beforeOpen the complete asset-specific memory
OTR GRAPH LEARNING
An extra check. It does not replace the other evidence.What OTR sees for US Dollar Index Fund
What this is: A commodity pool seeking long exposure to the U.S. dollar against a six-currency basket through dollar-index futures, plus income from Treasury and cash collateral, less expenses.
Headlines that may cause the price of this investment to go up
- A stronger dollar against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc, especially the heavily weighted euro.
- Higher U.S. expected rates or stronger U.S. data relative to the basket economies.
- Global funding stress or safe-haven demand that supports the dollar.
Headlines that may cause the price of this investment to go down
- Federal Reserve easing or weaker U.S. data relative to the basket economies.
- Tighter foreign central-bank policy, especially from the euro area because of basket concentration.
- A broad reduction in dollar funding stress and reversal of defensive positioning.
What OTR checks
- UUP holdings, DX futures contracts, roll, collateral, NAV, and premium or discount
- ICE USDX and contribution of each basket currency
- Federal Reserve and basket-central-bank expected policy paths
- Short-rate and real-yield differentials
15 saved news time checks3 completed0 rose3 fell0 roughly flat
0 supportive, 0 pressuring and 5 mixed or unclear asset-specific news signals.
5 linked headlines classified for this investment; 5 independent event samples. There is not yet a clear checked move suitable for a match test.
Open the full Graph Learning analysis
- Past
- OTR has 15 saved headline-response checks for this investment: 3 completed, including 0 rises, 3 falls and 0 roughly flat moves. Each row keeps the original source and its news time when that time is verifiable; unresolved times stay explicit and add no weight.
- Now
- News that may help includes A stronger dollar against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc, especially the heavily weighted euro.; Higher U.S. expected rates or stronger U.S. data relative to the basket economies.. News that may hurt includes Federal Reserve easing or weaker U.S. data relative to the basket economies.; Tighter foreign central-bank policy, especially from the euro area because of basket concentration.. OTR also watches UUP holdings, DX futures contracts, roll, collateral, NAV, and premium or discount, ICE USDX and contribution of each basket currency, Federal Reserve and basket-central-bank expected policy paths.
- Next prediction
- For a future prediction, OTR compares the new event with this investment's own saved reactions, then checks the wider market and named other possible causes. One headline never decides a call by itself.
- When this can mislead
- UUP is a fund using futures and collateral, not the cash DXY index.; Basket concentration means euro moves can dominate broad dollar weakness elsewhere.; Interest income, fees, and futures roll create tracking differences.; Good U.S. data may already be priced or may increase risk appetite enough to weaken the dollar.
Saved headline-move memory
- Stocks fall while dollar and bond yields rise after Warsh prompts rate-hike bets28 Aug 2026, 09:56 SGT1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
- Inflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meeting29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGT1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
- Warsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meeting29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGT1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
- Gold hits near two-week low on Fed chief's hawkish stance31 Aug 2026, 10:28 SGT1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
- The dollar reached a two-week high while markets awaited rate paths.02 Sept 2026, 20:47 SGT1h · fell 0.25%4h · fell 0.23%20h · fell 0.39%
Clue, not proof: timing is a clue, never proof. A price move after a headline does not prove the headline caused it. OTR uses a pattern only after it repeats and still holds up against the wider market.