GRAPH · GLD

SPDR Gold Shares: predictions, prices and linked headlines

This page keeps every SPDR Gold Shares prediction and source-timed headline together. The Founder result remains separate from later price evidence.

Line = price · P = prediction published · number = headline published.

← See all investments

investments: 1
Predictions: 4
Linked headlines: 11
Timed events: 15

6 September 2026 graph update: 0 new story markers and 0 prediction points were added for this edition. The preserved history below keeps its original dates.

How OTR judges a headline

OTR asks what the event may do to this investment—not whether the words sound happy or scary. May help, may hurt, mixed or unclear is shown beside each linked headline. Later prices test the idea; timing alone never proves cause.

WHAT HAPPENED NEXT

What happened after saved stories about SPDR Gold Shares

11 saved story matches

7 of 33 possible later-price checks are available.

21 out of 100 ready for comparison

This measures how many required prices were saved. It does not measure prediction skill.

No repeated twenty-hour direction can be shown yet

This only describes the past. It does not predict the next move.

Showing all 11 saved events. Open each row for the actual price times, source and earlier comparisons.

Saved story

Published

After 1 hour

After 4 hours

After 20 hours

Earlier comparisons and evidence

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%.

2026-09-02 21:45:00 Singapore time

+0.19%

-0.00%

+1.16%

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	401.489990234375 2026-09-02T13:45:00.000Z	402.25 2026-09-02T14:45:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
4 hours	401.489990234375 2026-09-02T13:45:00.000Z	401.4800109863281 2026-09-02T17:45:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
20 hours	401.489990234375 2026-09-02T13:45:00.000Z	406.14 2026-09-03T09:45:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to SPDR Gold Shares.

Supporting reports

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%.

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
World Gold Council data are authoritative industry research, not a regulator's causal study.
Reserve reports may lag transactions and may be revised.
The cited sources do not prove that any single reserve purchase caused a GLD move.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-09-02T21:45:00+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

How sure is OTR?
Insufficient evidenceNo confidence number is shown because source quality, independent reports, freshness, opposing evidence, earlier comparisons, time accuracy are not fully measured.

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

A global bond sell-off deepened amid energy-led inflation and borrowing-cost fears.

2026-09-02 16:54:00 Singapore time

-0.14%

+0.46%

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	395.7084 2026-09-02T08:55:00.000Z	395.16 2026-09-02T09:55:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
4 hours	395.7084 2026-09-02T08:55:00.000Z	397.52 2026-09-02T12:55:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to SPDR Gold Shares.

Supporting reports

A global bond sell-off deepened amid energy-led inflation and borrowing-cost fears.

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
World Gold Council data are authoritative industry research, not a regulator's causal study.
Reserve reports may lag transactions and may be revised.
The cited sources do not prove that any single reserve purchase caused a GLD move.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-09-02T16:54:00+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

New Zealand raised its policy rate as fuel pressure lifted inflation.

2026-09-02 10:00:00 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to SPDR Gold Shares.

Supporting reports

New Zealand raised its policy rate as fuel pressure lifted inflation.

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
World Gold Council data are authoritative industry research, not a regulator's causal study.
Reserve reports may lag transactions and may be revised.
The cited sources do not prove that any single reserve purchase caused a GLD move.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-09-02T10:00:00+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Global bond rout deepens as oil prices jump; wheat prices reach their highest since early 2023

2026-09-01 14:46:00 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to SPDR Gold Shares.

Supporting reports

Global bond rout deepens as oil prices jump; wheat prices reach their highest since early 2023

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
World Gold Council data are authoritative industry research, not a regulator's causal study.
Reserve reports may lag transactions and may be revised.
The cited sources do not prove that any single reserve purchase caused a GLD move.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-09-01T14:46:00+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Gold hits near two-week low on Fed chief's hawkish stance

2026-08-31 10:28:00.000 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to SPDR Gold Shares.

Supporting reports

Gold hits near two-week low on Fed chief's hawkish stance

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
World Gold Council data are authoritative industry research, not a regulator's causal study.
Reserve reports may lag transactions and may be revised.
The cited sources do not prove that any single reserve purchase caused a GLD move.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-31T10:28:00.000+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Inflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meeting

2026-08-29 21:59:45.000 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to SPDR Gold Shares.

Supporting reports

Inflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meeting

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
World Gold Council data are authoritative industry research, not a regulator's causal study.
Reserve reports may lag transactions and may be revised.
The cited sources do not prove that any single reserve purchase caused a GLD move.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-29T21:59:45.000+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Warsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meeting

2026-08-29 21:59:45.000 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to SPDR Gold Shares.

Supporting reports

Warsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meeting

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
World Gold Council data are authoritative industry research, not a regulator's causal study.
Reserve reports may lag transactions and may be revised.
The cited sources do not prove that any single reserve purchase caused a GLD move.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-29T21:59:45.000+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Rate-hike odds jump; gold and silver fall sharply

2026-08-29 21:00:00.000 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to SPDR Gold Shares.

Supporting reports

Rate-hike odds jump; gold and silver fall sharply

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
World Gold Council data are authoritative industry research, not a regulator's causal study.
Reserve reports may lag transactions and may be revised.
The cited sources do not prove that any single reserve purchase caused a GLD move.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-29T21:00:00.000+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Warsh turns hawkish; gold and silver plunge

2026-08-29 19:41:15.000 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to SPDR Gold Shares.

Supporting reports

Warsh turns hawkish; gold and silver plunge

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
World Gold Council data are authoritative industry research, not a regulator's causal study.
Reserve reports may lag transactions and may be revised.
The cited sources do not prove that any single reserve purchase caused a GLD move.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-29T19:41:15.000+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Gold falls as rate-rise expectations increase

2026-08-29 03:09:00.000 Singapore time

-0.02%

+0.03%

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	409.1099853515625 2026-08-28T19:10:00.000Z	409.02 2026-08-28T20:10:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
4 hours	409.1099853515625 2026-08-28T19:10:00.000Z	409.24 2026-08-28T23:10:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to SPDR Gold Shares.

Supporting reports

Gold falls as rate-rise expectations increase

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
World Gold Council data are authoritative industry research, not a regulator's causal study.
Reserve reports may lag transactions and may be revised.
The cited sources do not prove that any single reserve purchase caused a GLD move.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-29T03:09:00.000+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Stocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold up

2026-08-28 09:56:49.203 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to SPDR Gold Shares.

Supporting reports

Stocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold up

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
World Gold Council data are authoritative industry research, not a regulator's causal study.
Reserve reports may lag transactions and may be revised.
The cited sources do not prove that any single reserve purchase caused a GLD move.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-28T09:56:49.203+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

How to read this: a later price shows what followed, not what caused the move. Comparisons use the same market and kind of news, with results already available before this story appeared.

01
SPDR Gold Shares
GLD · commodity_etf · 4 prediction records
Evidence
Publication markers · exact horizontal time

Loading public price line and publication markers…

Prediction 1 Prediction published1 Headline publishedPrediction 1 entry priceGraph badges open evidence. Timeline items jump to matching cards.

Chart readoutPrediction 1 is Rise expected ↑. Visible result record: Right. 15 of 15 timed publication events are placed from left to right.
Latest public price · never a ledger grade

Last public price
Loading public price data…
From Prediction 1 entry
Entry 402.085 USD
Latest call
Rise expected ↑
Publication markers
15 of 15 timed
Publication timelineOldest → newest
Left to right matches the graph. Select an event to jump to its full card.

Prediction 4Prediction Prediction 4 · 11 Aug 2026, 10:17 SGTFall expected prediction402.54 USD · PROOF RECEIPT · Right (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
Prediction 3Prediction Prediction 3 · 12 Aug 2026, 20:15 SGTRise expected prediction400.96 USD · PROOF RECEIPT · Right (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
Prediction 2Prediction Prediction 2 · 17 Aug 2026, 03:17 SGTRise expected prediction401.48 USD · PROOF RECEIPT · Right (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
1Headline 1 · 28 Aug 2026, 09:56 SGTStocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold upCompany Or Asset
2Headline 2 · 29 Aug 2026, 03:09 SGTGold falls as rate-rise expectations increaseCompany Or Asset
3Headline 3 · 29 Aug 2026, 19:41 SGTWarsh turns hawkish; gold and silver plungeCompany Or Asset
4Headline 4 · 29 Aug 2026, 21:00 SGTRate-hike odds jump; gold and silver fall sharplyCompany Or Asset
5Headline 5 · 29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGTInflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meetingMacro Or Policy
6Headline 6 · 29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGTWarsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meetingMacro Or Policy
7Headline 7 · 31 Aug 2026, 10:28 SGTGold hits near two-week low on Fed chief's hawkish stanceMacro Or Policy
8Headline 8 · 01 Sept 2026, 14:46 SGTGlobal bond rout deepens as oil prices jump; wheat prices reach their highest since early 2023Macro Or Policy
9Headline 9 · 02 Sept 2026, 10:00 SGTNew Zealand raised its policy rate as fuel pressure lifted inflation.Macro Or Policy
10Headline 10 · 02 Sept 2026, 16:54 SGTA global bond sell-off deepened amid energy-led inflation and borrowing-cost fears.Macro Or Policy
11Headline 11 · 02 Sept 2026, 21:45 SGTThe Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%.Macro Or Policy
Prediction 1Prediction Prediction 1 · 03 Sept 2026, 07:07 SGTRise expected prediction402.085 USD · Right
Latest prediction · Prediction 1
Prediction 1

Rise expected · 402.085 USDRight

Published
03 Sept 2026, 07:07 SGT
Deadline
04 Sept 2026, 03:07 SGT

System analysis · What the saved history shows
What the saved history shows: prediction record Right. Prediction 1 is plotted at its recorded publication time; later tape observations cannot recalculate or change the stamped result.

A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Founder result.

Prediction 1 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
Headlines · 11 · oldest first
1

Stocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold upPublished · 28 Aug 2026, 09:56 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · What the saved history shows
What the saved history shows: linked to SPDR Gold Shares by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: Medium importance 73/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Equities / Stock MarketsMedium · 73/100Source time verified

Story noteUnclear GLD
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Negative

What happened later20h · Not suitable for a direction check · 0.00%Association only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

2

Gold falls as rate-rise expectations increasePublished · 29 Aug 2026, 03:09 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · What the saved history shows
What the saved history shows: linked to SPDR Gold Shares by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High importance 75/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

CommoditiesHigh · 75/100Source time verified

Story noteUnclear GLD
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Mixed

What happened later20h · Not suitable for a direction check · 0.00%Association only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

3

Warsh turns hawkish; gold and silver plungePublished · 29 Aug 2026, 19:41 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · What the saved history shows
What the saved history shows: linked to SPDR Gold Shares by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: Medium importance 69/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

CommoditiesMedium · 69/100Source time verified

Story noteUnclear GLD
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · Not suitable for a direction check · 0.00%Association only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

4

Rate-hike odds jump; gold and silver fall sharplyPublished · 29 Aug 2026, 21:00 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · What the saved history shows
What the saved history shows: linked to SPDR Gold Shares by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High importance 75/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

CommoditiesHigh · 75/100Source time verified

Story noteUnclear GLD
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Negative

What happened later20h · Not suitable for a direction check · 0.00%Association only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

5

Inflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meetingPublished · 29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · What the saved history shows
What the saved history shows: linked to SPDR Gold Shares by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High importance 88/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Public Policy & GovernmentHigh · 88/100Source time verified

Story noteUnclear GLD
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · Not suitable for a direction check · 0.00%Association only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

6

Warsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meetingPublished · 29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · What the saved history shows
What the saved history shows: linked to SPDR Gold Shares by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: Medium importance 72/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Public Policy & GovernmentMedium · 72/100Source time verified

Story noteUnclear GLD
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · Not suitable for a direction check · 0.00%Association only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

7

Gold hits near two-week low on Fed chief's hawkish stancePublished · 31 Aug 2026, 10:28 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · What the saved history shows
What the saved history shows: linked to SPDR Gold Shares by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High importance 80/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

CommoditiesHigh · 80/100Source time verified

Story noteUnclear GLD
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Negative

What happened later20h · Not suitable for a direction check · 0.00%Association only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

8

Global bond rout deepens as oil prices jump; wheat prices reach their highest since early 2023Published · 01 Sept 2026, 14:46 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · What the saved history shows
What the saved history shows: linked to SPDR Gold Shares by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High importance 89/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

CommoditiesHigh · 89/100Source time verified

Story noteUnclear GLD
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · Not suitable for a direction check · 0.00%Association only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

9

New Zealand raised its policy rate as fuel pressure lifted inflation.Published · 02 Sept 2026, 10:00 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · What the saved history shows
What the saved history shows: linked to SPDR Gold Shares by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High importance 86/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

earlier rule Source-timed Current EventsHigh · 86/100Source time verified

Story noteUnclear GLD
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Mixed

What happened later20h · Not suitable for a direction check · 0.00%Association only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

10

A global bond sell-off deepened amid energy-led inflation and borrowing-cost fears.Published · 02 Sept 2026, 16:54 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · What the saved history shows
What the saved history shows: linked to SPDR Gold Shares by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High importance 86/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

earlier rule Source-timed Current EventsHigh · 86/100Source time verified

Story noteUnclear GLD
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · Not suitable for a direction check · 0.00%Association only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

11

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%.Published · 02 Sept 2026, 21:45 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · What the saved history shows
What the saved history shows: linked to SPDR Gold Shares by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High importance 86/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

earlier rule Source-timed Current EventsHigh · 86/100Source time verified

Story noteUnclear GLD
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · Not suitable for a direction check · +0.95%Association only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗
Prediction history · 3 earlier · newest first
1. Prediction 2
  
  Rise expected · 401.48 USDPROOF RECEIPT · Right (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
  
  Published
  17 Aug 2026, 03:17 SGT
  Deadline
  17 Aug 2026, 23:17 SGT
  
  System analysis · What the saved history shows
  What the saved history shows: locked proof receipt Right. This is a traceable read-only result, not a Founder stamp. Prediction 2 remains at its original publication time.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Founder result.
  
  Prediction 2 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
2. Prediction 3
  
  Rise expected · 400.96 USDPROOF RECEIPT · Right (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
  
  Published
  12 Aug 2026, 20:15 SGT
  Deadline
  13 Aug 2026, 16:15 SGT
  
  System analysis · What the saved history shows
  What the saved history shows: locked proof receipt Right. This is a traceable read-only result, not a Founder stamp. Prediction 3 remains at its original publication time.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Founder result.
  
  Prediction 3 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
3. Prediction 4
  
  Fall expected · 402.54 USDPROOF RECEIPT · Right (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
  
  Published
  11 Aug 2026, 10:17 SGT
  Deadline
  12 Aug 2026, 06:17 SGT
  
  System analysis · What the saved history shows
  What the saved history shows: locked proof receipt Right. This is a traceable read-only result, not a Founder stamp. Prediction 4 remains at its original publication time.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Founder result.
  
  Prediction 4 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
Graph LearningHow news has moved SPDR Gold Shares beforeOpen the complete asset-specific memory
OTR GRAPH LEARNING
What OTR sees for SPDR Gold Shares
An extra check. It does not replace the other evidence.

real yields, the dollar, fund flows and safe-haven demand · Rais and Bryce wear precious-metals and reserve-flow analysts.

What this is: A trust designed so each share reflects the price of gold bullion, less expenses. It holds gold rather than gold-mining companies and does not generate operating income.
Headlines that may cause the price of this investment to go up
Falling real yields or a more accommodative policy path when inflation expectations do not fall as fast.
A weaker U.S. dollar against major currencies, confirmed by official dollar indexes.
Reported central-bank net purchases or reserve-diversification plans backed by actual holdings data.
Headlines that may cause the price of this investment to go down
Rising real yields, tighter policy, or a stronger U.S. dollar.
Sustained ETF outflows or central-bank net selling.
Lower inflation risk and reduced financial stress with capital rotating into income-producing assets.
What OTR checks
LBMA Gold Price PM and COMEX gold futures curve
GLD ounces held, creations and redemptions, NAV, and premium or discount
U.S. Treasury real and nominal yields
Federal Reserve policy and inflation expectations
33 saved news time checks7 completed4 rose1 fell2 roughly flat

ASSET-SPECIFIC NEWS MEMORYWhat the news may mean here
0 supportive, 0 pressuring and 11 mixed or unclear asset-specific news signals.
11 linked headlines classified for this investment; 11 independent event samples. There is not yet a clear checked move suitable for a match test.
Can OTR use this for a prediction yet?Not for extra weight yet. The label must be frozen before the outcome and repeat in forward checks first.
Open the full Graph Learning analysis
Past
OTR has 33 saved headline-response checks for this investment: 7 completed, including 4 rises, 1 falls and 2 roughly flat moves. Each row keeps the original source and its news time when that time is verifiable; unresolved times stay explicit and add no weight.
Now
News that may help includes Falling real yields or a more accommodative policy path when inflation expectations do not fall as fast.; A weaker U.S. dollar against major currencies, confirmed by official dollar indexes.. News that may hurt includes Rising real yields, tighter policy, or a stronger U.S. dollar.; Sustained ETF outflows or central-bank net selling.. OTR also watches LBMA Gold Price PM and COMEX gold futures curve, GLD ounces held, creations and redemptions, NAV, and premium or discount, U.S. Treasury real and nominal yields.
Next prediction
For a future prediction, OTR compares the new event with this investment's own saved reactions, then checks the wider market and named other possible causes. One headline never decides a call by itself.
When this can mislead
Gold can rise with the dollar during acute stress, breaking a simple inverse-dollar rule.; Nominal yields are not real yields; inflation expectations matter.; Central-bank data are delayed and sometimes revised.; GLD expenses gradually reduce gold represented per share.
Saved headline-move memory
Stocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold up28 Aug 2026, 09:56 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Gold falls as rate-rise expectations increase29 Aug 2026, 03:09 SGT
1h · was roughly flat 0.02%4h · was roughly flat 0.02%20h · not checked yet
Warsh turns hawkish; gold and silver plunge29 Aug 2026, 19:41 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Rate-hike odds jump; gold and silver fall sharply29 Aug 2026, 21:00 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Inflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meeting29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Warsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meeting29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Gold hits near two-week low on Fed chief's hawkish stance31 Aug 2026, 10:28 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Global bond rout deepens as oil prices jump; wheat prices reach their highest since early 202301 Sept 2026, 14:46 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
New Zealand raised its policy rate as fuel pressure lifted inflation.02 Sept 2026, 10:00 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
A global bond sell-off deepened amid energy-led inflation and borrowing-cost fears.02 Sept 2026, 16:54 SGT
1h · fell 0.12%4h · rose 0.49%20h · not checked yet
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%.02 Sept 2026, 21:45 SGT
1h · rose 0.31%4h · rose 0.21%20h · rose 1.35%
Clue, not proof: timing is a clue, never proof. A price move after a headline does not prove the headline caused it. OTR uses a pattern only after it repeats and still holds up against the wider market.

One timeline of saved evidence

Stories, original predictions, review deadlines, checked thesis changes and earlier comparisons share the dates shown below. A review deadline is not the date an outcome was recorded. Only saved moments appear.

Open all 19 dated moments

Singapore time	Moment	Saved evidence
11 Aug 2026, 10:17	Prediction	Original fall prediction
12 Aug 2026, 06:17	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
12 Aug 2026, 20:15	Prediction	Original rise prediction
13 Aug 2026, 16:15	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
17 Aug 2026, 03:17	Prediction	Original rise prediction
17 Aug 2026, 23:17	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
28 Aug 2026, 09:56	Story	Stocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold up
29 Aug 2026, 03:09	Story	Gold falls as rate-rise expectations increase
29 Aug 2026, 19:41	Story	Warsh turns hawkish; gold and silver plunge
29 Aug 2026, 21:00	Story	Rate-hike odds jump; gold and silver fall sharply
29 Aug 2026, 21:59	Story	Inflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meeting
29 Aug 2026, 21:59	Story	Warsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meeting
31 Aug 2026, 10:28	Story	Gold hits near two-week low on Fed chief's hawkish stance
1 Sept 2026, 14:46	Story	Global bond rout deepens as oil prices jump; wheat prices reach their highest since early 2023
2 Sept 2026, 10:00	Story	New Zealand raised its policy rate as fuel pressure lifted inflation.
2 Sept 2026, 16:54	Story	A global bond sell-off deepened amid energy-led inflation and borrowing-cost fears.
2 Sept 2026, 21:45	Story	The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%.
3 Sept 2026, 07:07	Prediction	Original rise prediction
4 Sept 2026, 03:07	Review deadline	Recorded outcome: Right

SPDR Gold Shares: predictions, prices and linked headlines

What happened after saved stories about SPDR Gold Shares

11 saved story matches

21 out of 100 ready for comparison

No repeated twenty-hour direction can be shown yet

Supporting reports

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Latest prediction · Prediction 1

Headlines · 11 · oldest first

Prediction history · 3 earlier · newest first

Headlines that may cause the price of this investment to go up

Headlines that may cause the price of this investment to go down

What OTR checks

Saved headline-move memory

One timeline of saved evidence