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Nasdaq-100 futures: predictions, prices and linked headlines

This page keeps every Nasdaq-100 futures prediction and source-timed headline together. The Founder result remains separate from later price evidence.

Line = price · P = prediction published · number = headline published.

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investments
1
Predictions
9
Linked headlines
2
Timed events
11

6 September 2026 graph update: 0 new story markers and 0 prediction points were added for this edition. The preserved history below keeps its original dates.

How OTR judges a headline

OTR asks what the event may do to this investment—not whether the words sound happy or scary. May help, may hurt, mixed or unclear is shown beside each linked headline. Later prices test the idea; timing alone never proves cause.

WHAT HAPPENED NEXT

What happened after saved stories about Nasdaq-100 futures

2 saved story matches

4 of 6 possible later-price checks are available.

67 out of 100 ready for comparison

This measures how many required prices were saved. It does not measure prediction skill.

No repeated twenty-hour direction can be shown yet

This only describes the past. It does not predict the next move.

Showing all 2 saved events. Open each row for the actual price times, source and earlier comparisons.

Saved storyPublishedAfter 1 hourAfter 4 hoursAfter 20 hoursEarlier comparisons and evidence
Equities rise with 2-year yields, dollar as rate hike bets rise following Warsh speech2026-08-28 23:47:32.637 Singapore time-0.33%-0.48%Not measured
0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the storyStarting price and saved timeLater price and saved timeTime accuracyPrice source
1 hour29633.75
2026-08-28T15:50:00.000Z		29536.5
2026-08-28T16:50:00.000Z		First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each checkPrice source
4 hours29633.75
2026-08-28T15:50:00.000Z		29491
2026-08-28T19:50:00.000Z		First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each checkPrice source
20 hoursNot recorded
Time not recorded		Not recorded
Time not recorded		Not available in the saved evidencePrice source not recorded
Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to Nasdaq-100 futures.

Supporting reports

What argues against it

  • This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
  • The Fed paper concerns broad equity returns, not a guaranteed NQ direction.
  • Continuous-vendor symbols are not exchange-listed contracts and can use different roll rules.
  • Index membership and weights change over time.
Where the reports came from
Not recorded
Languages
Not recorded
How recent
2026-08-28T23:47:32.637+08:00
Similar earlier cases
Not measured

How sure is OTR?
Insufficient evidenceNo confidence number is shown because source quality, independent reports, freshness, opposing evidence, earlier comparisons, time accuracy are not fully measured.

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

  • Source quality: Not fully measured.
  • Independent reports: Not fully measured.
  • Freshness: Not fully measured.
  • Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
  • Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
  • Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Wall Street ends lower after Warsh reaffirms inflation fight2026-08-28 18:14:56.037 Singapore time+0.04%-0.23%Not measured
0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the storyStarting price and saved timeLater price and saved timeTime accuracyPrice source
1 hour29604
2026-08-28T10:15:00.000Z		29614.5
2026-08-28T11:15:00.000Z		First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each checkPrice source
4 hours29604
2026-08-28T10:15:00.000Z		29534.75
2026-08-28T14:15:00.000Z		First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each checkPrice source
20 hoursNot recorded
Time not recorded		Not recorded
Time not recorded		Not available in the saved evidencePrice source not recorded
Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to Nasdaq-100 futures.

Supporting reports

What argues against it

  • This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
  • The Fed paper concerns broad equity returns, not a guaranteed NQ direction.
  • Continuous-vendor symbols are not exchange-listed contracts and can use different roll rules.
  • Index membership and weights change over time.
Where the reports came from
Not recorded
Languages
Not recorded
How recent
2026-08-28T18:14:56.037+08:00
Similar earlier cases
Not measured

How sure is OTR?
Insufficient evidenceNo confidence number is shown because source quality, independent reports, freshness, opposing evidence, earlier comparisons, time accuracy are not fully measured.

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

  • Source quality: Not fully measured.
  • Independent reports: Not fully measured.
  • Freshness: Not fully measured.
  • Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
  • Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
  • Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

How to read this: a later price shows what followed, not what caused the move. Comparisons use the same market and kind of news, with results already available before this story appeared.

  1. 01

    Nasdaq-100 futures

    NQ=F · index_future · 9 prediction records

    Evidence
    Publication markers · exact horizontal time
    Loading public price line and publication markers…
    Prediction 1 Prediction published1 Headline publishedPrediction 1 entry priceGraph badges open evidence. Timeline items jump to matching cards.
    Chart readoutPrediction 1 is Rise expected ↑. Visible result record: No result recorded. 11 of 11 timed publication events are placed from left to right.
    Latest public price · never a ledger grade
    Last public price
    Loading public price data…
    From Prediction 1 entry
    Entry 29697.75 USD
    Latest call
    Rise expected ↑
    Publication markers
    11 of 11 timed
    Publication timelineOldest → newest

    Left to right matches the graph. Select an event to jump to its full card.

    1. Prediction 9Prediction Prediction 9 · 20 Aug 2026, 15:21 SGTFall expected prediction29665.5 USD · No result recorded
    2. Prediction 8Prediction Prediction 8 · 20 Aug 2026, 17:22 SGTFall expected prediction29527.75 USD · No result recorded
    3. Prediction 7Prediction Prediction 7 · 20 Aug 2026, 20:41 SGTFall expected prediction29261.25 USD · PROOF RECEIPT · Wrong (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
    4. Prediction 6Prediction Prediction 6 · 21 Aug 2026, 01:53 SGTFall expected prediction29286.75 USD · Wrong
    5. Prediction 5Prediction Prediction 5 · 22 Aug 2026, 01:43 SGTFall expected prediction29397.75 USD · No result recorded
    6. Prediction 4Prediction Prediction 4 · 25 Aug 2026, 10:11 SGTFall expected prediction29141 USD · No result recorded
    7. Prediction 3Prediction Prediction 3 · 25 Aug 2026, 15:22 SGTFall expected prediction29258.25 USD · No result recorded
    8. Prediction 2Prediction Prediction 2 · 25 Aug 2026, 17:43 SGTRise expected prediction29329 USD · No result recorded
    9. Prediction 1Prediction Prediction 1 · 28 Aug 2026, 11:34 SGTRise expected prediction29697.75 USD · No result recorded
    10. 1Headline 1 · 28 Aug 2026, 18:14 SGTWall Street ends lower after Warsh reaffirms inflation fightMacro Or Policy
    11. 2Headline 2 · 28 Aug 2026, 23:47 SGTEquities rise with 2-year yields, dollar as rate hike bets rise following Warsh speechCompany Or Asset

    Latest prediction · Prediction 1

    1. Prediction 1
      Rise expected · 29697.75 USDNo result recorded
      Published
      Deadline

    Headlines · 2 · oldest first

    1. 1
      Wall Street ends lower after Warsh reaffirms inflation fightPublished · 28 Aug 2026, 18:14 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.
      Story noteUnclear NQ=F
      No direction

      Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

      Confidence
      Low
      Strength
      Unclear
      Headline mood
      Neutral

      Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

      How OTR scored this
      Event
      No Asset Specific Rule
      Link to asset
      Unmapped
      Uncertainty
      No Asset Specific Rule
      Sample
      Independent event
      Rule
      Abstain
    2. 2
      Equities rise with 2-year yields, dollar as rate hike bets rise following Warsh speechPublished · 28 Aug 2026, 23:47 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.
      Story noteMay hurt NQ=F
      Down

      Why: Higher yields can reduce the present value investors assign to long-duration growth shares.

      Confidence
      High
      Strength
      Moderate
      Headline mood
      Positive

      Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

      How OTR scored this
      Event
      Rates Repricing
      Link to asset
      Long Duration Equity Discount Rate
      Uncertainty
      None Identified From Headline
      Sample
      Independent event
      Rule
      Rate yields dollar

    Prediction history · 8 earlier · newest first

    1. Prediction 2
      Rise expected · 29329 USDNo result recorded
      Published
      Deadline
    2. Prediction 3
      Fall expected · 29258.25 USDNo result recorded
      Published
      Deadline
    3. Prediction 4
      Fall expected · 29141 USDNo result recorded
      Published
      Deadline
    4. Prediction 5
      Fall expected · 29397.75 USDNo result recorded
      Published
      Deadline
    5. Prediction 6
      Fall expected · 29286.75 USDWrong
      Published
      Deadline
    6. Prediction 7
      Fall expected · 29261.25 USDPROOF RECEIPT · Wrong (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
      Published
      Deadline
    7. Prediction 8
      Fall expected · 29527.75 USDNo result recorded
      Published
      Deadline
    8. Prediction 9
      Fall expected · 29665.5 USDNo result recorded
      Published
      Deadline
    Graph LearningHow news has moved Nasdaq-100 futures beforeOpen the complete asset-specific memory
    OTR GRAPH LEARNING

    What OTR sees for Nasdaq-100 futures

    An extra check. It does not replace the other evidence.

    What this is: A continuous-chart symbol commonly used for E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures. One CME NQ contract is valued at $20 times the Nasdaq-100 Index and expires quarterly, so the chart must roll between contracts.

    Headlines that may cause the price of this investment to go up

    • Large Nasdaq-100 companies raise earnings or cash-flow expectations
    • Inflation or Fed news lowers expected interest rates without signalling recession
    • AI, cloud or semiconductor demand broadens across major members

    Headlines that may cause the price of this investment to go down

    • The Fed is more restrictive than expected or long yields jump
    • A heavyweight issues weak guidance
    • AI capital spending rises without matching revenue or margins

    What OTR checks

    • Nasdaq-100 current constituent weights
    • top-constituent earnings and guidance
    • FOMC surprises and real yields
    • market breadth
    6 saved news time checks2 completed0 rose2 fell0 roughly flat
    ASSET-SPECIFIC NEWS MEMORYWhat the news may mean here

    0 supportive, 1 pressuring and 1 mixed or unclear asset-specific news signals.

    2 linked headlines classified for this investment; 2 independent event samples. There is not yet a clear checked move suitable for a match test.

    Open the full Graph Learning analysis
    Past
    OTR has 6 saved headline-response checks for this investment: 2 completed, including 0 rises, 2 falls and 0 roughly flat moves. Each row keeps the original source and its news time when that time is verifiable; unresolved times stay explicit and add no weight.
    Now
    News that may help includes Large Nasdaq-100 companies raise earnings or cash-flow expectations; Inflation or Fed news lowers expected interest rates without signalling recession. News that may hurt includes The Fed is more restrictive than expected or long yields jump; A heavyweight issues weak guidance. OTR also watches Nasdaq-100 current constituent weights, top-constituent earnings and guidance, FOMC surprises and real yields.
    Next prediction
    For a future prediction, OTR compares the new event with this investment's own saved reactions, then checks the wider market and named other possible causes. One headline never decides a call by itself.
    When this can mislead
    NQ=F continuous data can contain roll and basis effects.; Futures trade nearly around the clock, so moves can occur before the cash market opens.; A rate cut can be Fall expected if it reveals severe economic weakness.; Index concentration can make broad technology headlines misleading.

    Saved headline-move memory

    1. Wall Street ends lower after Warsh reaffirms inflation fight28 Aug 2026, 18:14 SGT
      1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
    2. Equities rise with 2-year yields, dollar as rate hike bets rise following Warsh speech28 Aug 2026, 23:47 SGT
      1h · fell 0.33%4h · fell 0.48%20h · not checked yet

    Clue, not proof: timing is a clue, never proof. A price move after a headline does not prove the headline caused it. OTR uses a pattern only after it repeats and still holds up against the wider market.

One timeline of saved evidence

Stories, original predictions, review deadlines, checked thesis changes and earlier comparisons share the dates shown below. A review deadline is not the date an outcome was recorded. Only saved moments appear.

Open all 18 dated moments
Singapore timeMomentSaved evidence
PredictionOriginal fall prediction
PredictionOriginal fall prediction
PredictionOriginal fall prediction
PredictionOriginal fall prediction
Review deadlineOpen the original review terms
Review deadlineOpen the original review terms
Review deadlineOpen the original review terms
Review deadlineRecorded outcome: Wrong
PredictionOriginal fall prediction
PredictionOriginal fall prediction
PredictionOriginal rise prediction
Review deadlineOpen the original review terms
Review deadlineOpen the original review terms
Review deadlineOpen the original review terms
PredictionOriginal rise prediction
StoryWall Street ends lower after Warsh reaffirms inflation fight
StoryEquities rise with 2-year yields, dollar as rate hike bets rise following Warsh speech
Review deadlineOpen the original review terms