GRAPH · MSFT

Microsoft: predictions, prices and linked headlines

This page keeps every Microsoft prediction and source-timed headline together. The original recorded result remains separate from later price evidence.

Line = price · P = prediction published · number = headline published.

← See all investibles

Investibles: 1
Predictions: 9
Linked headlines: 2
Timed events: 11

7 September 2026 graph update: 6 new story markers and 1 prediction points were added for this edition. The preserved history below keeps its original dates.

How OTR judges a headline

OTR asks what the event may do to this investible—not whether the words sound happy or scary. May help, may hurt, mixed or unclear is shown beside each linked headline. Later prices test the idea; timing alone never proves cause.

WHAT HAPPENED NEXT

What happened after saved stories about Microsoft

2 saved story matches

0 of 6 possible later-price checks are available.

0 out of 100 ready for comparison

This measures how many required prices were saved. It does not measure prediction skill.

No repeated twenty-hour direction can be shown yet

This only describes the past. It does not predict the next move.

Showing all 2 saved events. Open each row for the actual price times, source and earlier comparisons.

Saved story

Published

After 1 hour

After 4 hours

After 20 hours

Earlier comparisons and evidence

OpenAI plans to end model supply for SpaceX-owned Cursor

2026-08-29 10:01:58.685 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to Microsoft.

Supporting reports

OpenAI plans to end model supply for SpaceX-owned Cursor

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
Issuer disclosures establish results and risks, not causal share-price responses.
AI contribution and capacity commentary may not be reported at enough detail to isolate every driver.
Forward guidance is conditional and market expectations are not directly observed here.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-29T10:01:58.685+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

How sure is OTR?
Insufficient evidenceNo confidence number is shown because source quality, independent reports, freshness, opposing evidence, earlier comparisons, time accuracy are not fully measured.

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Stocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold up

2026-08-28 09:56:49.203 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to Microsoft.

Supporting reports

Stocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold up

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
Issuer disclosures establish results and risks, not causal share-price responses.
AI contribution and capacity commentary may not be reported at enough detail to isolate every driver.
Forward guidance is conditional and market expectations are not directly observed here.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-28T09:56:49.203+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

How to read this: a later price shows what followed, not what caused the move. Comparisons use the same market and kind of news, with results already available before this story appeared.

01
Microsoft
MSFT · equity · 9 prediction records
Evidence
Publication markers · exact horizontal time

Loading public price line and publication markers…

P1 Prediction published1 Headline publishedP1 entry priceGraph badges open evidence. Timeline items jump to matching cards.

Chart readoutP1 is BULLISH ↑. Visible result record: NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT. 11 of 11 timed publication events are placed from left to right.
Latest public price · never a ledger grade

Last public price
Loading public price data…
From P1 entry
Entry 505.06 USD
Latest call
BULLISH ↑
Publication markers
11 of 11 timed
Publication timelineOldest → newest
Left to right matches the graph. Select an event to jump to its full card.

P9Prediction P9 · 20 Aug 2026, 15:21 SGTBEARISH prediction484.309997559 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
P8Prediction P8 · 20 Aug 2026, 17:22 SGTBEARISH prediction484.309997559 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
P7Prediction P7 · 20 Aug 2026, 20:41 SGTBEARISH prediction484.30999755859375 USD · PROOF RECEIPT · HIT (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
P6Prediction P6 · 21 Aug 2026, 01:53 SGTBEARISH prediction482.0150146484375 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
P5Prediction P5 · 25 Aug 2026, 10:11 SGTBULLISH prediction487.30999755859375 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
P4Prediction P4 · 25 Aug 2026, 15:22 SGTBULLISH prediction487.30999755859375 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
P3Prediction P3 · 25 Aug 2026, 17:43 SGTBULLISH prediction487.30999755859375 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
P2Prediction P2 · 26 Aug 2026, 07:53 SGTBULLISH prediction491.709991 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
1Headline 1 · 28 Aug 2026, 09:56 SGTStocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold upCompany Or Asset
P1Prediction P1 · 28 Aug 2026, 11:34 SGTBULLISH prediction505.06 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
2Headline 2 · 29 Aug 2026, 10:01 SGTOpenAI plans to end model supply for SpaceX-owned CursorCompany Or Asset
Latest prediction · P1
P1

BULLISH · 505.06 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT

Published
28 Aug 2026, 11:34 SGT
Deadline
01 Sept 2026, 11:34 SGT

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.

A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.

P1 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
Headlines · 2 · oldest first
1

Stocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold upPublished · 28 Aug 2026, 09:56 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to Microsoft by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: Medium materiality 73/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Equities / Stock MarketsMedium · 73/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear MSFT
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Negative

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

2

OpenAI plans to end model supply for SpaceX-owned CursorPublished · 29 Aug 2026, 10:01 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to Microsoft by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: Medium materiality 73/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Semiconductors & HardwareMedium · 73/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear MSFT
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule; Modal Language
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗
Prediction history · 8 earlier · newest first
1. P2
  
  BULLISH · 491.709991 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
  
  Published
  26 Aug 2026, 07:53 SGT
  Deadline
  27 Aug 2026, 03:53 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P2 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
2. P3
  
  BULLISH · 487.30999755859375 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
  
  Published
  25 Aug 2026, 17:43 SGT
  Deadline
  26 Aug 2026, 13:43 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P3 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
3. P4
  
  BULLISH · 487.30999755859375 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
  
  Published
  25 Aug 2026, 15:22 SGT
  Deadline
  26 Aug 2026, 11:22 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P4 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
4. P5
  
  BULLISH · 487.30999755859375 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
  
  Published
  25 Aug 2026, 10:11 SGT
  Deadline
  26 Aug 2026, 06:11 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P5 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
5. P6
  
  BEARISH · 482.0150146484375 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
  
  Published
  21 Aug 2026, 01:53 SGT
  Deadline
  21 Aug 2026, 21:53 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P6 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
6. P7
  
  BEARISH · 484.30999755859375 USDPROOF RECEIPT · HIT (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
  
  Published
  20 Aug 2026, 20:41 SGT
  Deadline
  21 Aug 2026, 16:41 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: immutable proof receipt HIT. This is a traceable read-only result, not a Founder stamp. P7 remains at its original publication time.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P7 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
7. P8
  
  BEARISH · 484.309997559 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
  
  Published
  20 Aug 2026, 17:22 SGT
  Deadline
  21 Aug 2026, 13:22 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P8 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
8. P9
  
  BEARISH · 484.309997559 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
  
  Published
  20 Aug 2026, 15:21 SGT
  Deadline
  21 Aug 2026, 11:21 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P9 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
Graph LearningHow news has moved Microsoft beforeOpen the complete asset-specific memory
OTR GRAPH LEARNING
What OTR sees for Microsoft
An extra check. It does not replace the other evidence.

cloud demand, AI adoption, capex returns, margins and reliability · Rais and Bryce wear enterprise-software and cloud analysts.

What this is: A software and cloud company whose businesses include Azure, Microsoft 365, Windows, security, gaming and AI services. Its graph is especially sensitive to cloud growth, AI demand, data-centre capacity and the cost of building that capacity.
Headlines that may cause the price of this investible to go up
Azure and other cloud revenue grow faster than expected
AI services convert usage into paid cloud and software revenue
Data-centre capacity expands without worsening margin guidance
Headlines that may cause the price of this investible to go down
Cloud growth slows or capacity constraints prevent Microsoft from serving demand
AI infrastructure spending and depreciation rise faster than monetisation
Competition or regulator action changes bundling, distribution or acquisitions
What OTR checks
Azure growth and AI contribution
commercial bookings and remaining performance obligations
Microsoft 365 seats and pricing
capex, finance leases and depreciation
6 saved news time checks0 completed0 rose0 fell0 roughly flat

ASSET-SPECIFIC NEWS MEMORYWhat the news may mean here
0 supportive, 0 pressuring and 2 mixed or unclear asset-specific news signals.
2 linked headlines classified for this investible; 2 independent event samples. There is not yet a clear checked move suitable for a match test.
Can OTR use this for a prediction yet?Not for extra weight yet. The label must be frozen before the outcome and repeat in forward checks first.
Open the full Graph Learning analysis
Past
2 saved story relationships, 0 eligible measured windows. New story bindings add no measured outcome.
Now
News that may help includes Azure and other cloud revenue grow faster than expected; AI services convert usage into paid cloud and software revenue. News that may hurt includes Cloud growth slows or capacity constraints prevent Microsoft from serving demand; AI infrastructure spending and depreciation rise faster than monetisation. OTR also watches Azure growth and AI contribution, commercial bookings and remaining performance obligations, Microsoft 365 seats and pricing.
Next prediction
Future calls require their own fresh entry and frozen rules. Historical context never substitutes for missing outcome evidence.
When this can mislead
Demand can be strong while capacity limits reported revenue.; A capex increase can be good if monetisation follows or bad if utilisation stays low.; Constant-currency growth can differ from reported dollar growth.; Broad interest-rate moves affect MSFT's valuation independently of operations.
Saved headline-move memory
OpenAI plans to end model supply for SpaceX-owned Cursor29 Aug 2026, 10:01 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Stocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold up28 Aug 2026, 09:56 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Clue, not proof: timing is a clue, never proof. A price move after a headline does not prove the headline caused it. OTR uses a pattern only after it repeats and still holds up against the wider market.

One timeline of saved evidence

Publication, issuance, review deadlines and actual observations retain their distinct dates.

Open 21 dated moments

Recorded time	Moment	Evidence
2026-08-20T07:21:23.412Z	Prediction	Original fall prediction
2026-08-20T09:22:15.491Z	Prediction	Original fall prediction
2026-08-20T12:41:42.645Z	Prediction	Original fall prediction
2026-08-20T17:53:35.703Z	Prediction	Original fall prediction
2026-08-21T03:21:23.412Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-08-21T05:22:15.491Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-08-21T08:41:42.645Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-08-21T13:53:35.703Z	Review deadline	Recorded outcome: Right
2026-08-25T02:11:22.534Z	Prediction	Original rise prediction
2026-08-25T07:22:46.874Z	Prediction	Original rise prediction
2026-08-25T09:43:20.079Z	Prediction	Original rise prediction
2026-08-25T22:11:22.534Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-08-25T23:53:00.000Z	Prediction	Original rise prediction
2026-08-26T03:22:46.874Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-08-26T05:43:20.079Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-08-26T19:53:00.000Z	Review deadline	Recorded outcome: Right
2026-08-28T01:56:49.203Z	Story	Stocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold up
2026-08-28T03:34:58.951Z	Prediction	Original rise prediction
2026-08-29T02:01:58.685Z	Story	OpenAI plans to end model supply for SpaceX-owned Cursor
2026-09-01T03:34:58.951Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-09-04T05:01:28.366Z	Original result receipt recorded	MSFT · UNVERIFIABLE under original rules

Microsoft: predictions, prices and linked headlines

What happened after saved stories about Microsoft

2 saved story matches

0 out of 100 ready for comparison

No repeated twenty-hour direction can be shown yet

Supporting reports

What argues against it

Where this appears

Supporting reports

What argues against it

Where this appears

Latest prediction · P1

Headlines · 2 · oldest first

Prediction history · 8 earlier · newest first

Headlines that may cause the price of this investible to go up

Headlines that may cause the price of this investible to go down

What OTR checks

Saved headline-move memory

One timeline of saved evidence