PUBLIC PREDICTION RECEIPT
OTR predicted iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF would fall
fe65c2e64d5e0410d09dc0710597e387dd70b3c34b381beec29741f99a3be255
- Asset
- iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF · TLT
- Direction
- DOWN
- Created
- Deadline
- Entry
- 83.13 USD
- Deadline price
- Checking…
- Raw return
- Checking…
- Relevant market return
- Checking…
- Market-adjusted result
- Checking…
- Founder result
- Not yet graded —
- Scientific event verdict
- Inconclusive until all required evidence passes
- Record status
- Original prediction cannot be secretly changed
Original frozen reason
ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND ETF closed below its prior close while inflation stayed sticky and long yields rose. A material yield reversal and recovery above the saved prior close invalidates the call.
Invalidation condition
A material yield reversal and recovery above the saved prior close invalidates the call.
Calculating synchronized evidence without changing the Founder result.
Sources, file checks and audit history
- Prediction row file check
- 20842d112c713be6ea4f761658b3d0009d3dd490fe9839119868b8bf682a71bf
- Prediction receipt file check
- fe65c2e64d5e0410d09dc0710597e387dd70b3c34b381beec29741f99a3be255
- Outcome append file check
- caf315bc3fdc2c2e6f975cd3072c4f27631402280be36c1eb9f22c0d22bd31bd
- Model / method
- saved record · saved record
Founder Right/Wrong is authoritative and can only be changed by the Founder. Market-adjusted measurements are read-only observations and never mutate that ledger.