PUBLIC PREDICTION RECEIPT
OTR predicted United States Oil Fund would rise
a03cee61d3448e0eb5c5b5e6b8fe7d36579cfd4658dc275c1e0ddf8b01550c53
- Asset
- United States Oil Fund · USO
- Direction
- UP
- Created
- Deadline
- Entry
- 133.59 USD
- Deadline price
- Checking…
- Raw return
- Checking…
- Relevant market return
- Checking…
- Market-adjusted result
- Checking…
- Founder result
- Correct ✓
- Scientific event verdict
- Inconclusive until all required evidence passes
- Record status
- Original prediction cannot be secretly changed
Original frozen reason
Rise expected: the two-source entry lock shows positive oil-fund momentum while the source packet documents a fresh Hormuz risk premium. Six months of hourly data provide more than 120 leakage-safe 20-hour labels. The strongest countercase is rapid de-escalation or inventory normalisation, so this is a testable 20-hour view rather than a promise.
Invalidation condition
Invalidate the thesis if verified de-escalation removes the Hormuz premium or USO falls through its saved entry while the two independent quote sources remain healthy.
Calculating synchronized evidence without changing the Founder result.
Sources, file checks and audit history
- Prediction row file check
- d7143fab504b4e01738138a934d2f1b20628a51c4586d9e47ae754a3e00c565b
- Prediction receipt file check
- a03cee61d3448e0eb5c5b5e6b8fe7d36579cfd4658dc275c1e0ddf8b01550c53
- Outcome append file check
- 1c3b8ac554dbf37b7c85450ca3ebc84d96b32ac75dd0c33abc93bac4af2be834
- Model / method
- saved record · saved record
Founder Right/Wrong is authoritative and can only be changed by the Founder. Market-adjusted measurements are read-only observations and never mutate that ledger.