GRAPH · TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: predictions, prices and linked headlines

This page keeps every iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF prediction and source-timed headline together. The original recorded result remains separate from later price evidence.

Line = price · P = prediction published · number = headline published.

← See all investibles

Investibles: 1
Predictions: 8
Linked headlines: 10
Timed events: 18

7 September 2026 graph update: 6 new story markers and 1 prediction points were added for this edition. The preserved history below keeps its original dates.

How OTR judges a headline

OTR asks what the event may do to this investible—not whether the words sound happy or scary. May help, may hurt, mixed or unclear is shown beside each linked headline. Later prices test the idea; timing alone never proves cause.

WHAT HAPPENED NEXT

What happened after saved stories about iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

10 saved story matches

7 of 30 possible later-price checks are available.

23 out of 100 ready for comparison

This measures how many required prices were saved. It does not measure prediction skill.

No repeated twenty-hour direction can be shown yet

This only describes the past. It does not predict the next move.

Showing all 10 saved events. Open each row for the actual price times, source and earlier comparisons.

Saved story

Published

After 1 hour

After 4 hours

After 20 hours

Earlier comparisons and evidence

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%.

2026-09-02 21:45:00 Singapore time

-0.15%

-0.10%

+0.01%

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	82.00499725341797 2026-09-02T13:45:00.000Z	81.88500213623047 2026-09-02T14:45:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
4 hours	82.00499725341797 2026-09-02T13:45:00.000Z	81.91999816894531 2026-09-02T17:45:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
20 hours	82.00499725341797 2026-09-02T13:45:00.000Z	82.01 2026-09-03T09:45:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF.

Supporting reports

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%.

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
Historical purchase-event estimates may not transfer to the current supply, inflation or liquidity regime.
The cited causal studies measure Treasury yields, not ETF market-price or tracking effects.
Forecasting direction requires the surprise versus expectations, not just the headline level.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-09-02T21:45:00+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

How sure is OTR?
Insufficient evidenceNo confidence number is shown because source quality, independent reports, freshness, opposing evidence, earlier comparisons, time accuracy are not fully measured.

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

A global bond sell-off deepened amid energy-led inflation and borrowing-cost fears.

2026-09-02 16:54:00 Singapore time

-0.02%

+0.33%

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	81.63 2026-09-02T08:55:00.000Z	81.611 2026-09-02T09:55:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
4 hours	81.63 2026-09-02T08:55:00.000Z	81.9 2026-09-02T12:55:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF.

Supporting reports

A global bond sell-off deepened amid energy-led inflation and borrowing-cost fears.

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
Historical purchase-event estimates may not transfer to the current supply, inflation or liquidity regime.
The cited causal studies measure Treasury yields, not ETF market-price or tracking effects.
Forecasting direction requires the surprise versus expectations, not just the headline level.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-09-02T16:54:00+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

New Zealand raised its policy rate as fuel pressure lifted inflation.

2026-09-02 10:00:00 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF.

Supporting reports

New Zealand raised its policy rate as fuel pressure lifted inflation.

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
Historical purchase-event estimates may not transfer to the current supply, inflation or liquidity regime.
The cited causal studies measure Treasury yields, not ETF market-price or tracking effects.
Forecasting direction requires the surprise versus expectations, not just the headline level.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-09-02T10:00:00+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Global bond rout deepens as oil prices jump; wheat prices reach their highest since early 2023

2026-09-01 14:46:00 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF.

Supporting reports

Global bond rout deepens as oil prices jump; wheat prices reach their highest since early 2023

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
Historical purchase-event estimates may not transfer to the current supply, inflation or liquidity regime.
The cited causal studies measure Treasury yields, not ETF market-price or tracking effects.
Forecasting direction requires the surprise versus expectations, not just the headline level.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-09-01T14:46:00+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Oil prices rise and stocks fall after US hits Iranian sites in the Strait of Hormuz

2026-08-31 14:32:16.000 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF.

Supporting reports

Oil prices rise and stocks fall after US hits Iranian sites in the Strait of Hormuz

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
Historical purchase-event estimates may not transfer to the current supply, inflation or liquidity regime.
The cited causal studies measure Treasury yields, not ETF market-price or tracking effects.
Forecasting direction requires the surprise versus expectations, not just the headline level.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-31T14:32:16.000+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Gold hits near two-week low on Fed chief's hawkish stance

2026-08-31 10:28:00.000 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF.

Supporting reports

Gold hits near two-week low on Fed chief's hawkish stance

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
Historical purchase-event estimates may not transfer to the current supply, inflation or liquidity regime.
The cited causal studies measure Treasury yields, not ETF market-price or tracking effects.
Forecasting direction requires the surprise versus expectations, not just the headline level.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-31T10:28:00.000+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Inflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meeting

2026-08-29 21:59:45.000 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF.

Supporting reports

Inflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meeting

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
Historical purchase-event estimates may not transfer to the current supply, inflation or liquidity regime.
The cited causal studies measure Treasury yields, not ETF market-price or tracking effects.
Forecasting direction requires the surprise versus expectations, not just the headline level.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-29T21:59:45.000+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Warsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meeting

2026-08-29 21:59:45.000 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF.

Supporting reports

Warsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meeting

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
Historical purchase-event estimates may not transfer to the current supply, inflation or liquidity regime.
The cited causal studies measure Treasury yields, not ETF market-price or tracking effects.
Forecasting direction requires the surprise versus expectations, not just the headline level.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-29T21:59:45.000+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Equities rise with 2-year yields, dollar as rate hike bets rise following Warsh speech

2026-08-28 23:47:32.637 Singapore time

-0.22%

-0.35%

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	83.1050033569336 2026-08-28T15:50:00.000Z	82.91999816894531 2026-08-28T16:50:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
4 hours	83.1050033569336 2026-08-28T15:50:00.000Z	82.80999755859375 2026-08-28T19:50:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF.

Supporting reports

Equities rise with 2-year yields, dollar as rate hike bets rise following Warsh speech

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
Historical purchase-event estimates may not transfer to the current supply, inflation or liquidity regime.
The cited causal studies measure Treasury yields, not ETF market-price or tracking effects.
Forecasting direction requires the surprise versus expectations, not just the headline level.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-28T23:47:32.637+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Stocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold up

2026-08-28 09:56:49.203 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF.

Supporting reports

Stocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold up

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
Historical purchase-event estimates may not transfer to the current supply, inflation or liquidity regime.
The cited causal studies measure Treasury yields, not ETF market-price or tracking effects.
Forecasting direction requires the surprise versus expectations, not just the headline level.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-28T09:56:49.203+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

How to read this: a later price shows what followed, not what caused the move. Comparisons use the same market and kind of news, with results already available before this story appeared.

01
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
TLT · bond_etf · 8 prediction records
Evidence
Publication markers · exact horizontal time

Loading public price line and publication markers…

P1 Prediction published1 Headline publishedP1 entry priceGraph badges open evidence. Timeline items jump to matching cards.

Chart readoutP1 is BEARISH ↓. Visible result record: HIT. 18 of 18 timed publication events are placed from left to right.
Latest public price · never a ledger grade

Last public price
Loading public price data…
From P1 entry
Entry 82.34 USD
Latest call
BEARISH ↓
Publication markers
18 of 18 timed
Publication timelineOldest → newest
Left to right matches the graph. Select an event to jump to its full card.

P8Prediction P8 · 20 Aug 2026, 15:21 SGTBULLISH prediction83.019996643 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
P7Prediction P7 · 20 Aug 2026, 17:22 SGTBULLISH prediction83.019996643 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
P6Prediction P6 · 21 Aug 2026, 01:53 SGTBEARISH prediction82.33499908447266 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
P5Prediction P5 · 25 Aug 2026, 10:11 SGTBULLISH prediction82.55999755859375 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
P4Prediction P4 · 25 Aug 2026, 15:22 SGTBULLISH prediction82.55999755859375 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
P3Prediction P3 · 25 Aug 2026, 17:43 SGTBULLISH prediction82.55999755859375 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
1Headline 1 · 28 Aug 2026, 09:56 SGTStocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold upCompany Or Asset
P2Prediction P2 · 28 Aug 2026, 11:34 SGTBEARISH prediction83.13 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
2Headline 2 · 28 Aug 2026, 23:47 SGTEquities rise with 2-year yields, dollar as rate hike bets rise following Warsh speechCompany Or Asset
3Headline 3 · 29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGTInflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meetingMacro Or Policy
4Headline 4 · 29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGTWarsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meetingMacro Or Policy
5Headline 5 · 31 Aug 2026, 10:28 SGTGold hits near two-week low on Fed chief's hawkish stanceMacro Or Policy
6Headline 6 · 31 Aug 2026, 14:32 SGTOil prices rise and stocks fall after US hits Iranian sites in the Strait of HormuzMacro Or Policy
P1Prediction P1 · 01 Sept 2026, 02:44 SGTBEARISH prediction82.34 USD · HIT
7Headline 7 · 01 Sept 2026, 14:46 SGTGlobal bond rout deepens as oil prices jump; wheat prices reach their highest since early 2023Macro Or Policy
8Headline 8 · 02 Sept 2026, 10:00 SGTNew Zealand raised its policy rate as fuel pressure lifted inflation.Macro Or Policy
9Headline 9 · 02 Sept 2026, 16:54 SGTA global bond sell-off deepened amid energy-led inflation and borrowing-cost fears.Macro Or Policy
10Headline 10 · 02 Sept 2026, 21:45 SGTThe Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%.Macro Or Policy
Latest prediction · P1
P1

BEARISH · 82.34 USDHIT

Published
01 Sept 2026, 02:44 SGT
Deadline
01 Sept 2026, 22:44 SGT

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.

A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.

P1 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
Headlines · 10 · oldest first
1

Stocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold upPublished · 28 Aug 2026, 09:56 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: Medium materiality 73/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Equities / Stock MarketsMedium · 73/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear TLT
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Negative

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

2

Equities rise with 2-year yields, dollar as rate hike bets rise following Warsh speechPublished · 28 Aug 2026, 23:47 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 79/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Equities / Stock MarketsHigh · 79/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALMay hurt TLT
Down

Why: Higher rate expectations and yields usually push long-duration Treasury prices down.

Confidence
High
Strength
Strong
Headline mood
Positive

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
Rates Repricing
Link to asset
Discount Rate And Bond Price
Uncertainty
None Identified From Headline
Sample
Independent event
Rule
RATE_YIELDS_DOLLAR

Original source ↗

3

Inflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meetingPublished · 29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 88/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Public Policy & GovernmentHigh · 88/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear TLT
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

4

Warsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meetingPublished · 29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: Medium materiality 72/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Public Policy & GovernmentMedium · 72/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear TLT
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

5

Gold hits near two-week low on Fed chief's hawkish stancePublished · 31 Aug 2026, 10:28 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 89/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

CommoditiesHigh · 89/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear TLT
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Negative

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

6

Oil prices rise and stocks fall after US hits Iranian sites in the Strait of HormuzPublished · 31 Aug 2026, 14:32 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 89/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Equities / Stock MarketsHigh · 89/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear TLT
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Mixed

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

7

Global bond rout deepens as oil prices jump; wheat prices reach their highest since early 2023Published · 01 Sept 2026, 14:46 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 89/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

CommoditiesHigh · 89/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear TLT
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

8

New Zealand raised its policy rate as fuel pressure lifted inflation.Published · 02 Sept 2026, 10:00 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 86/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

C121 Source-timed Current EventsHigh · 86/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear TLT
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Mixed

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

9

A global bond sell-off deepened amid energy-led inflation and borrowing-cost fears.Published · 02 Sept 2026, 16:54 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 86/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

C121 Source-timed Current EventsHigh · 86/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear TLT
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

10

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%.Published · 02 Sept 2026, 21:45 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 86/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

C121 Source-timed Current EventsHigh · 86/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear TLT
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · Saved price was roughly flat after the headline; association only · +0.01%Association only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗
Prediction history · 7 earlier · newest first
1. P2
  
  BEARISH · 83.13 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
  
  Published
  28 Aug 2026, 11:34 SGT
  Deadline
  01 Sept 2026, 11:34 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P2 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
2. P3
  
  BULLISH · 82.55999755859375 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
  
  Published
  25 Aug 2026, 17:43 SGT
  Deadline
  26 Aug 2026, 13:43 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P3 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
3. P4
  
  BULLISH · 82.55999755859375 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
  
  Published
  25 Aug 2026, 15:22 SGT
  Deadline
  26 Aug 2026, 11:22 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P4 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
4. P5
  
  BULLISH · 82.55999755859375 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
  
  Published
  25 Aug 2026, 10:11 SGT
  Deadline
  26 Aug 2026, 06:11 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P5 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
5. P6
  
  BEARISH · 82.33499908447266 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
  
  Published
  21 Aug 2026, 01:53 SGT
  Deadline
  21 Aug 2026, 21:53 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P6 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
6. P7
  
  BULLISH · 83.019996643 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
  
  Published
  20 Aug 2026, 17:22 SGT
  Deadline
  21 Aug 2026, 13:22 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P7 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
7. P8
  
  BULLISH · 83.019996643 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
  
  Published
  20 Aug 2026, 15:21 SGT
  Deadline
  21 Aug 2026, 11:21 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P8 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
Graph LearningHow news has moved iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF beforeOpen the complete asset-specific memory
OTR GRAPH LEARNING
What OTR sees for iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
An extra check. It does not replace the other evidence.

long yields, inflation, central-bank policy, bond supply and haven demand · Rais and Bryce wear fixed-income duration and fiscal-supply analysts.

What this is: A fund of U.S. Treasury bonds with more than 20 years to maturity. It has high interest-rate sensitivity: long yields down usually means TLT price up, and long yields up usually means TLT price down.
Headlines that may cause the price of this investible to go up
Inflation or growth data lower expected long-term interest rates
The Fed eases more than expected without raising long-run inflation fear
A risk shock creates strong demand for U.S. Treasuries
Headlines that may cause the price of this investible to go down
Inflation stays high or the Fed is more restrictive than expected
Treasury announces more long-maturity borrowing than expected
An auction has weak demand
What OTR checks
20- and 30-year Treasury yields
real yields and inflation compensation
TLT effective duration
FOMC path and balance sheet
30 saved news time checks7 completed1 rose4 fell2 roughly flat

ASSET-SPECIFIC NEWS MEMORYWhat the news may mean here
0 supportive, 1 pressuring and 9 mixed or unclear asset-specific news signals.
10 linked headlines classified for this investible; 10 independent event samples. 2 of 2 clear checked moves matched the research direction.
Can OTR use this for a prediction yet?Not for extra weight yet. The label must be frozen before the outcome and repeat in forward checks first.
Open the full Graph Learning analysis
Past
10 saved story relationships, 7 eligible measured windows. New story bindings add no measured outcome.
Now
News that may help includes Inflation or growth data lower expected long-term interest rates; The Fed eases more than expected without raising long-run inflation fear. News that may hurt includes Inflation stays high or the Fed is more restrictive than expected; Treasury announces more long-maturity borrowing than expected. OTR also watches 20- and 30-year Treasury yields, real yields and inflation compensation, TLT effective duration.
Next prediction
Future calls require their own fresh entry and frozen rules. Historical context never substitutes for missing outcome evidence.
When this can mislead
A Fed rate cut can coincide with rising long yields if inflation or fiscal-risk expectations rise.; Safe-haven demand can fail during an inflation shock.; Coupon income partly offsets price changes over longer holding periods.; ETF duration and bond holdings change over time.
Saved headline-move memory
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%.02 Sept 2026, 21:45 SGT
1h · fell 0.15%4h · fell 0.10%20h · was roughly flat 0.01%
A global bond sell-off deepened amid energy-led inflation and borrowing-cost fears.02 Sept 2026, 16:54 SGT
1h · was roughly flat 0.02%4h · rose 0.33%20h · not checked yet
New Zealand raised its policy rate as fuel pressure lifted inflation.02 Sept 2026, 10:00 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Global bond rout deepens as oil prices jump; wheat prices reach their highest since early 202301 Sept 2026, 14:46 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Oil prices rise and stocks fall after US hits Iranian sites in the Strait of Hormuz31 Aug 2026, 14:32 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Gold hits near two-week low on Fed chief's hawkish stance31 Aug 2026, 10:28 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Inflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meeting29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Warsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meeting29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Equities rise with 2-year yields, dollar as rate hike bets rise following Warsh speech28 Aug 2026, 23:47 SGT
1h · fell 0.22%4h · fell 0.35%20h · not checked yet
Stocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold up28 Aug 2026, 09:56 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Clue, not proof: timing is a clue, never proof. A price move after a headline does not prove the headline caused it. OTR uses a pattern only after it repeats and still holds up against the wider market.

One timeline of saved evidence

Publication, issuance, review deadlines and actual observations retain their distinct dates.

Open 27 dated moments

Recorded time	Moment	Evidence
2026-08-20T07:21:23.412Z	Prediction	Original rise prediction
2026-08-20T09:22:15.491Z	Prediction	Original rise prediction
2026-08-20T17:53:35.703Z	Prediction	Original fall prediction
2026-08-21T03:21:23.412Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-08-21T05:22:15.491Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-08-21T13:53:35.703Z	Review deadline	Recorded outcome: Right
2026-08-25T02:11:22.534Z	Prediction	Original rise prediction
2026-08-25T07:22:46.874Z	Prediction	Original rise prediction
2026-08-25T09:43:20.079Z	Prediction	Original rise prediction
2026-08-25T22:11:22.534Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-08-26T03:22:46.874Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-08-26T05:43:20.079Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-08-28T01:56:49.203Z	Story	Stocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold up
2026-08-28T03:34:58.951Z	Prediction	Original fall prediction
2026-08-28T15:47:32.637Z	Story	Equities rise with 2-year yields, dollar as rate hike bets rise following Warsh speech
2026-08-29T13:59:45.000Z	Story	Inflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meeting
2026-08-29T13:59:45.000Z	Story	Warsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meeting
2026-08-31T02:28:00.000Z	Story	Gold hits near two-week low on Fed chief's hawkish stance
2026-08-31T06:32:16.000Z	Story	Oil prices rise and stocks fall after US hits Iranian sites in the Strait of Hormuz
2026-08-31T18:44:40.325Z	Prediction	Original fall prediction
2026-09-01T03:34:58.951Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-09-01T06:46:00.000Z	Story	Global bond rout deepens as oil prices jump; wheat prices reach their highest since early 2023
2026-09-01T14:44:40.325Z	Review deadline	Recorded outcome: Right
2026-09-02T02:00:00.000Z	Story	New Zealand raised its policy rate as fuel pressure lifted inflation.
2026-09-02T08:54:00.000Z	Story	A global bond sell-off deepened amid energy-led inflation and borrowing-cost fears.
2026-09-02T13:45:00.000Z	Story	The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%.
2026-09-04T05:01:28.366Z	Original result receipt recorded	TLT · UNVERIFIABLE under original rules

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: predictions, prices and linked headlines

What happened after saved stories about iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

10 saved story matches

23 out of 100 ready for comparison

No repeated twenty-hour direction can be shown yet

Supporting reports

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Latest prediction · P1

Headlines · 10 · oldest first

Prediction history · 7 earlier · newest first

Headlines that may cause the price of this investible to go up

Headlines that may cause the price of this investible to go down

What OTR checks

Saved headline-move memory

One timeline of saved evidence