PUBLIC PREDICTION RECEIPT
OTR predicted iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF would fall
fe65c2e64d5e0410d09dc0710597e387dd70b3c34b381beec29741f99a3be255
- Asset
- iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF · TLT
- Direction
- DOWN
- Created
- Deadline
- Entry
- 83.13 USD
- Deadline price
- Checking…
- Raw return
- Checking…
- Relevant market return
- Checking…
- Market-adjusted result
- Checking…
- Original recorded result
- Not yet graded —
- Scientific event verdict
- Inconclusive until all required evidence passes
- Record status
- Original prediction cannot be secretly changed
Original frozen reason
ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND ETF closed below its prior close while inflation stayed sticky and long yields rose. A material yield reversal and recovery above the saved prior close invalidates the call.
Invalidation condition
A material yield reversal and recovery above the saved prior close invalidates the call.
Calculating synchronized evidence without changing the Original recorded result.
Sources, hashes and audit history
- Prediction row hash
- 20842d112c713be6ea4f761658b3d0009d3dd490fe9839119868b8bf682a71bf
- Prediction receipt hash
- fe65c2e64d5e0410d09dc0710597e387dd70b3c34b381beec29741f99a3be255
- Outcome append hash
- caf315bc3fdc2c2e6f975cd3072c4f27631402280be36c1eb9f22c0d22bd31bd
- Model / method
- OTR-PREDICTION-EXACT-FIFTEEN-FULL-NAME-C34-V1 · OTR-EVENT-STUDY-FAIL-CLOSED-C49-V1
Each original result retains its original rules and cohort. Market-adjusted measurements do not regrade it. A saved imported row does not by itself establish membership in the separate historical founder score.