GRAPH · USO

United States Oil Fund: predictions, prices and linked headlines

This page keeps every United States Oil Fund prediction and source-timed headline together. The original recorded result remains separate from later price evidence.

Line = price · P = prediction published · number = headline published.

← See all investibles

Investibles: 1
Predictions: 7
Linked headlines: 9
Timed events: 16

7 September 2026 graph update: 6 new story markers and 1 prediction points were added for this edition. The preserved history below keeps its original dates.

How OTR judges a headline

OTR asks what the event may do to this investible—not whether the words sound happy or scary. May help, may hurt, mixed or unclear is shown beside each linked headline. Later prices test the idea; timing alone never proves cause.

WHAT HAPPENED NEXT

What happened after saved stories about United States Oil Fund

9 saved story matches

2 of 27 possible later-price checks are available.

7 out of 100 ready for comparison

This measures how many required prices were saved. It does not measure prediction skill.

No repeated twenty-hour direction can be shown yet

This only describes the past. It does not predict the next move.

Showing all 9 saved events. Open each row for the actual price times, source and earlier comparisons.

Saved story

Published

After 1 hour

After 4 hours

After 20 hours

Earlier comparisons and evidence

US oil stocks fell while fuel demand weakened.

2026-09-02 22:38:00 Singapore time

+0.61%

+0.70%

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	140.08999633789062 2026-09-02T14:40:00.000Z	140.94000244140625 2026-09-02T15:40:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
4 hours	140.08999633789062 2026-09-02T14:40:00.000Z	141.07000732421875 2026-09-02T18:40:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to United States Oil Fund.

Supporting reports

US oil stocks fell while fuel demand weakened.

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
EIA explains market mechanics but cannot establish the cause of every short-window price move.
The 2020 filing proves an exposure change, not a complete decomposition of USO returns.
Every event analysis must use the exact futures contracts held at that time.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-09-02T22:38:00+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

How sure is OTR?
Insufficient evidenceNo confidence number is shown because source quality, independent reports, freshness, opposing evidence, earlier comparisons, time accuracy are not fully measured.

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

The US military was reported to have struck two Iranian oil tankers.

2026-09-02 10:28:50 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to United States Oil Fund.

Supporting reports

The US military was reported to have struck two Iranian oil tankers.

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
EIA explains market mechanics but cannot establish the cause of every short-window price move.
The 2020 filing proves an exposure change, not a complete decomposition of USO returns.
Every event analysis must use the exact futures contracts held at that time.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-09-02T10:28:50+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Oil prices rose to their highest level in more than a month.

2026-09-02 09:11:00 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to United States Oil Fund.

Supporting reports

Oil prices rose to their highest level in more than a month.

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
EIA explains market mechanics but cannot establish the cause of every short-window price move.
The 2020 filing proves an exposure change, not a complete decomposition of USO returns.
Every event analysis must use the exact futures contracts held at that time.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-09-02T09:11:00+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Global bond rout deepens as oil prices jump; wheat prices reach their highest since early 2023

2026-09-01 14:46:00 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to United States Oil Fund.

Supporting reports

Global bond rout deepens as oil prices jump; wheat prices reach their highest since early 2023

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
EIA explains market mechanics but cannot establish the cause of every short-window price move.
The 2020 filing proves an exposure change, not a complete decomposition of USO returns.
Every event analysis must use the exact futures contracts held at that time.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-09-01T14:46:00+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Oil prices rise and stocks fall after US hits Iranian sites in the Strait of Hormuz

2026-08-31 14:32:16.000 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to United States Oil Fund.

Supporting reports

Oil prices rise and stocks fall after US hits Iranian sites in the Strait of Hormuz

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
EIA explains market mechanics but cannot establish the cause of every short-window price move.
The 2020 filing proves an exposure change, not a complete decomposition of USO returns.
Every event analysis must use the exact futures contracts held at that time.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-31T14:32:16.000+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Oil jumps more than 2% after U.S. attack on Iran's Larak Island

2026-08-31 06:12:07.112 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to United States Oil Fund.

Supporting reports

Oil jumps more than 2% after U.S. attack on Iran's Larak Island

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
EIA explains market mechanics but cannot establish the cause of every short-window price move.
The 2020 filing proves an exposure change, not a complete decomposition of USO returns.
Every event analysis must use the exact futures contracts held at that time.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-31T06:12:07.112+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

U.S. forces strike Iranian launchers on Larak Island

2026-08-31 04:38:01.072 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to United States Oil Fund.

Supporting reports

U.S. forces strike Iranian launchers on Larak Island

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
EIA explains market mechanics but cannot establish the cause of every short-window price move.
The 2020 filing proves an exposure change, not a complete decomposition of USO returns.
Every event analysis must use the exact futures contracts held at that time.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-31T04:38:01.072+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Iran maintains its claim of control over the Strait of Hormuz

2026-08-29 10:04:15.898 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to United States Oil Fund.

Supporting reports

Iran maintains its claim of control over the Strait of Hormuz

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
EIA explains market mechanics but cannot establish the cause of every short-window price move.
The 2020 filing proves an exposure change, not a complete decomposition of USO returns.
Every event analysis must use the exact futures contracts held at that time.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-29T10:04:15.898+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

War and sanctions weigh on Iran's economy as trade falls

2026-08-29 10:04:15.898 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to United States Oil Fund.

Supporting reports

War and sanctions weigh on Iran's economy as trade falls

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
EIA explains market mechanics but cannot establish the cause of every short-window price move.
The 2020 filing proves an exposure change, not a complete decomposition of USO returns.
Every event analysis must use the exact futures contracts held at that time.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-29T10:04:15.898+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

How to read this: a later price shows what followed, not what caused the move. Comparisons use the same market and kind of news, with results already available before this story appeared.

01
United States Oil Fund
USO · commodity_etf · 7 prediction records
Evidence
Publication markers · exact horizontal time

Loading public price line and publication markers…

P1 Prediction published1 Headline publishedP1 entry priceGraph badges open evidence. Timeline items jump to matching cards.

Chart readoutP1 is BULLISH ↑. Visible result record: HIT. 16 of 16 timed publication events are placed from left to right.
Latest public price · never a ledger grade

Last public price
Loading public price data…
From P1 entry
Entry 133.59 USD
Latest call
BULLISH ↑
Publication markers
16 of 16 timed
Publication timelineOldest → newest
Left to right matches the graph. Select an event to jump to its full card.

P7Prediction P7 · 11 Aug 2026, 10:17 SGTBULLISH prediction125.92 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
P6Prediction P6 · 12 Aug 2026, 20:15 SGTBULLISH prediction127.61 USD · PROOF RECEIPT · MISS (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
P5Prediction P5 · 14 Aug 2026, 09:32 SGTBEARISH prediction125.03 USD · PROOF RECEIPT · MISS (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
P4Prediction P4 · 15 Aug 2026, 12:19 SGTBULLISH prediction126.6 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
P3Prediction P3 · 17 Aug 2026, 03:17 SGTBEARISH prediction126.6 USD · PROOF RECEIPT · MISS (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
P2Prediction P2 · 17 Aug 2026, 20:19 SGTBULLISH prediction126.6 USD · PROOF RECEIPT · HIT (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
1Headline 1 · 29 Aug 2026, 10:04 SGTWar and sanctions weigh on Iran's economy as trade fallsCompany Or Asset
2Headline 2 · 29 Aug 2026, 10:04 SGTIran maintains its claim of control over the Strait of HormuzCompany Or Asset
3Headline 3 · 31 Aug 2026, 04:38 SGTU.S. forces strike Iranian launchers on Larak IslandCompany Or Asset
4Headline 4 · 31 Aug 2026, 06:12 SGTOil jumps more than 2% after U.S. attack on Iran's Larak IslandCompany Or Asset
5Headline 5 · 31 Aug 2026, 14:32 SGTOil prices rise and stocks fall after US hits Iranian sites in the Strait of HormuzMacro Or Policy
P1Prediction P1 · 01 Sept 2026, 02:44 SGTBULLISH prediction133.59 USD · HIT
6Headline 6 · 01 Sept 2026, 14:46 SGTGlobal bond rout deepens as oil prices jump; wheat prices reach their highest since early 2023Macro Or Policy
7Headline 7 · 02 Sept 2026, 09:11 SGTOil prices rose to their highest level in more than a month.Macro Or Policy
8Headline 8 · 02 Sept 2026, 10:28 SGTThe US military was reported to have struck two Iranian oil tankers.Macro Or Policy
9Headline 9 · 02 Sept 2026, 22:38 SGTUS oil stocks fell while fuel demand weakened.Macro Or Policy
Latest prediction · P1
P1

BULLISH · 133.59 USDHIT

Published
01 Sept 2026, 02:44 SGT
Deadline
01 Sept 2026, 22:44 SGT

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.

A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.

P1 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
Headlines · 9 · oldest first
1

War and sanctions weigh on Iran's economy as trade fallsPublished · 29 Aug 2026, 10:04 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to United States Oil Fund by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 89/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Energy & PowerHigh · 89/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear USO
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Negative

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

2

Iran maintains its claim of control over the Strait of HormuzPublished · 29 Aug 2026, 10:04 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to United States Oil Fund by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 89/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Energy & PowerHigh · 89/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear USO
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

3

U.S. forces strike Iranian launchers on Larak IslandPublished · 31 Aug 2026, 04:38 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to United States Oil Fund by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 75/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Defence & SecurityHigh · 75/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear USO
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

4

Oil jumps more than 2% after U.S. attack on Iran's Larak IslandPublished · 31 Aug 2026, 06:12 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to United States Oil Fund by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: Medium materiality 73/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Energy & PowerMedium · 73/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear USO
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

5

Oil prices rise and stocks fall after US hits Iranian sites in the Strait of HormuzPublished · 31 Aug 2026, 14:32 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to United States Oil Fund by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 89/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Equities / Stock MarketsHigh · 89/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear USO
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Mixed

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

6

Global bond rout deepens as oil prices jump; wheat prices reach their highest since early 2023Published · 01 Sept 2026, 14:46 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to United States Oil Fund by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 89/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

CommoditiesHigh · 89/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear USO
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

7

Oil prices rose to their highest level in more than a month.Published · 02 Sept 2026, 09:11 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to United States Oil Fund by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 82/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

C121 Source-timed Current EventsHigh · 82/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear USO
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Positive

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

8

The US military was reported to have struck two Iranian oil tankers.Published · 02 Sept 2026, 10:28 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to United States Oil Fund by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 86/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

C121 Source-timed Current EventsHigh · 86/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear USO
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

9

US oil stocks fell while fuel demand weakened.Published · 02 Sept 2026, 22:38 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to United States Oil Fund by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 82/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

C121 Source-timed Current EventsHigh · 82/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear USO
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Negative

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗
Prediction history · 6 earlier · newest first
1. P2
  
  BULLISH · 126.6 USDPROOF RECEIPT · HIT (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
  
  Published
  17 Aug 2026, 20:19 SGT
  Deadline
  18 Aug 2026, 16:19 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: immutable proof receipt HIT. This is a traceable read-only result, not a Founder stamp. P2 remains at its original publication time.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P2 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
2. P3
  
  BEARISH · 126.6 USDPROOF RECEIPT · MISS (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
  
  Published
  17 Aug 2026, 03:17 SGT
  Deadline
  17 Aug 2026, 23:17 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: immutable proof receipt MISS. This is a traceable read-only result, not a Founder stamp. P3 remains at its original publication time.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P3 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
3. P4
  
  BULLISH · 126.6 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
  
  Published
  15 Aug 2026, 12:19 SGT
  Deadline
  16 Aug 2026, 08:19 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P4 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
4. P5
  
  BEARISH · 125.03 USDPROOF RECEIPT · MISS (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
  
  Published
  14 Aug 2026, 09:32 SGT
  Deadline
  15 Aug 2026, 05:32 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: immutable proof receipt MISS. This is a traceable read-only result, not a Founder stamp. P5 remains at its original publication time.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P5 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
5. P6
  
  BULLISH · 127.61 USDPROOF RECEIPT · MISS (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
  
  Published
  12 Aug 2026, 20:15 SGT
  Deadline
  13 Aug 2026, 16:15 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: immutable proof receipt MISS. This is a traceable read-only result, not a Founder stamp. P6 remains at its original publication time.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P6 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
6. P7
  
  BULLISH · 125.92 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
  
  Published
  11 Aug 2026, 10:17 SGT
  Deadline
  12 Aug 2026, 06:17 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P7 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
Graph LearningHow news has moved United States Oil Fund beforeOpen the complete asset-specific memory
OTR GRAPH LEARNING
What OTR sees for United States Oil Fund
An extra check. It does not replace the other evidence.

What this is: An exchange-traded commodity pool designed to reflect daily changes in a benchmark of WTI crude-oil futures plus collateral income, less expenses. It is not spot oil and can differ materially because contracts roll over time.
Headlines that may cause the price of this investible to go up
Verified production outages, sanctions, conflict, or OPEC-plus restraint that tightens expected WTI supply.
EIA inventory draws, stronger refinery runs, or demand data that exceed seasonal expectations.
A futures curve moving toward backwardation, which can reduce or reverse negative roll drag.
Headlines that may cause the price of this investible to go down
Production increases, ceasefires, sanctions relief, or faster supply recovery.
Large inventory builds, weak refinery runs, or falling official demand forecasts.
Steep contango that creates roll drag even if spot oil is stable.
What OTR checks
USO daily holdings, benchmark contract, roll schedule, NAV, and premium or discount
WTI futures curve, calendar spreads, and Cushing delivery conditions
EIA weekly and monthly inventories, production, imports, exports, refinery runs, and product supplied
Official OPEC-plus decisions and compliance data
27 saved news time checks2 completed2 rose0 fell0 roughly flat

ASSET-SPECIFIC NEWS MEMORYWhat the news may mean here
0 supportive, 0 pressuring and 9 mixed or unclear asset-specific news signals.
9 linked headlines classified for this investible; 9 independent event samples. There is not yet a clear checked move suitable for a match test.
Can OTR use this for a prediction yet?Not for extra weight yet. The label must be frozen before the outcome and repeat in forward checks first.
Open the full Graph Learning analysis
Past
9 saved story relationships, 2 eligible measured windows. New story bindings add no measured outcome.
Now
News that may help includes Verified production outages, sanctions, conflict, or OPEC-plus restraint that tightens expected WTI supply.; EIA inventory draws, stronger refinery runs, or demand data that exceed seasonal expectations.. News that may hurt includes Production increases, ceasefires, sanctions relief, or faster supply recovery.; Large inventory builds, weak refinery runs, or falling official demand forecasts.. OTR also watches USO daily holdings, benchmark contract, roll schedule, NAV, and premium or discount, WTI futures curve, calendar spreads, and Cushing delivery conditions, EIA weekly and monthly inventories, production, imports, exports, refinery runs, and product supplied.
Next prediction
Future calls require their own fresh entry and frozen rules. Historical context never substitutes for missing outcome evidence.
When this can mislead
USO is not spot oil; roll yield and collateral income matter.; A supply headline can be offset by demand collapse or already-expected policy.; Inventory changes require seasonal, refinery, import, and export context.; Near-month and deferred futures can move in opposite directions during stress.
Saved headline-move memory
US oil stocks fell while fuel demand weakened.02 Sept 2026, 22:38 SGT
1h · rose 0.61%4h · rose 0.70%20h · not checked yet
The US military was reported to have struck two Iranian oil tankers.02 Sept 2026, 10:28 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Oil prices rose to their highest level in more than a month.02 Sept 2026, 09:11 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Global bond rout deepens as oil prices jump; wheat prices reach their highest since early 202301 Sept 2026, 14:46 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Oil prices rise and stocks fall after US hits Iranian sites in the Strait of Hormuz31 Aug 2026, 14:32 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Oil jumps more than 2% after U.S. attack on Iran's Larak Island31 Aug 2026, 06:12 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
U.S. forces strike Iranian launchers on Larak Island31 Aug 2026, 04:38 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Iran maintains its claim of control over the Strait of Hormuz29 Aug 2026, 10:04 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
War and sanctions weigh on Iran's economy as trade falls29 Aug 2026, 10:04 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Clue, not proof: timing is a clue, never proof. A price move after a headline does not prove the headline caused it. OTR uses a pattern only after it repeats and still holds up against the wider market.

One timeline of saved evidence

Publication, issuance, review deadlines and actual observations retain their distinct dates.

Open 23 dated moments

Recorded time	Moment	Evidence
2026-08-11T02:17:00.000Z	Prediction	Original rise prediction
2026-08-11T22:17:00.000Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-08-12T12:15:00.000Z	Prediction	Original rise prediction
2026-08-13T08:15:00.000Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-08-14T01:32:00.000Z	Prediction	Original fall prediction
2026-08-14T21:32:00.000Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-08-15T04:19:00.000Z	Prediction	Original rise prediction
2026-08-16T00:19:00.000Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-08-16T19:17:00.000Z	Prediction	Original fall prediction
2026-08-17T12:19:00.000Z	Prediction	Original rise prediction
2026-08-17T15:17:00.000Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-08-18T08:19:00.000Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-08-29T02:04:15.898Z	Story	War and sanctions weigh on Iran's economy as trade falls
2026-08-29T02:04:15.898Z	Story	Iran maintains its claim of control over the Strait of Hormuz
2026-08-30T20:38:01.072Z	Story	U.S. forces strike Iranian launchers on Larak Island
2026-08-30T22:12:07.112Z	Story	Oil jumps more than 2% after U.S. attack on Iran's Larak Island
2026-08-31T06:32:16.000Z	Story	Oil prices rise and stocks fall after US hits Iranian sites in the Strait of Hormuz
2026-08-31T18:44:40.325Z	Prediction	Original rise prediction
2026-09-01T06:46:00.000Z	Story	Global bond rout deepens as oil prices jump; wheat prices reach their highest since early 2023
2026-09-01T14:44:40.325Z	Review deadline	Recorded outcome: Right
2026-09-02T01:11:00.000Z	Story	Oil prices rose to their highest level in more than a month.
2026-09-02T02:28:50.000Z	Story	The US military was reported to have struck two Iranian oil tankers.
2026-09-02T14:38:00.000Z	Story	US oil stocks fell while fuel demand weakened.

United States Oil Fund: predictions, prices and linked headlines

What happened after saved stories about United States Oil Fund

9 saved story matches

7 out of 100 ready for comparison

No repeated twenty-hour direction can be shown yet

Supporting reports

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Latest prediction · P1

Headlines · 9 · oldest first

Prediction history · 6 earlier · newest first

Headlines that may cause the price of this investible to go up

Headlines that may cause the price of this investible to go down

What OTR checks

Saved headline-move memory

One timeline of saved evidence