GRAPH · SPY

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust: predictions, prices and linked headlines

This page keeps every SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust prediction and source-timed headline together. The original recorded result remains separate from later price evidence.

Line = price · P = prediction published · number = headline published.

← See all investibles

Investibles: 1
Predictions: 2
Linked headlines: 7
Timed events: 9

7 September 2026 graph update: 6 new story markers and 1 prediction points were added for this edition. The preserved history below keeps its original dates.

How OTR judges a headline

OTR asks what the event may do to this investible—not whether the words sound happy or scary. May help, may hurt, mixed or unclear is shown beside each linked headline. Later prices test the idea; timing alone never proves cause.

WHAT HAPPENED NEXT

What happened after saved stories about SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

7 saved story matches

4 of 21 possible later-price checks are available.

19 out of 100 ready for comparison

This measures how many required prices were saved. It does not measure prediction skill.

No repeated twenty-hour direction can be shown yet

This only describes the past. It does not predict the next move.

Showing all 7 saved events. Open each row for the actual price times, source and earlier comparisons.

Saved story

Published

After 1 hour

After 4 hours

After 20 hours

Earlier comparisons and evidence

A global bond sell-off deepened amid energy-led inflation and borrowing-cost fears.

2026-09-02 16:54:00 Singapore time

+0.00%

+0.22%

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	759.8 2026-09-02T08:55:00.000Z	759.83 2026-09-02T09:55:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
4 hours	759.8 2026-09-02T08:55:00.000Z	761.46 2026-09-02T12:55:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust.

Supporting reports

A global bond sell-off deepened amid energy-led inflation and borrowing-cost fears.

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
Macro direction alone is insufficient because prices respond to surprises versus expectations.
The cited macro reports do not establish a particular SPY price effect.
Point-in-time constituent weights are required for company-specific headlines.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-09-02T16:54:00+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

How sure is OTR?
Insufficient evidenceNo confidence number is shown because source quality, independent reports, freshness, opposing evidence, earlier comparisons, time accuracy are not fully measured.

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Global bond rout deepens as oil prices jump; wheat prices reach their highest since early 2023

2026-09-01 14:46:00 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust.

Supporting reports

Global bond rout deepens as oil prices jump; wheat prices reach their highest since early 2023

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
Macro direction alone is insufficient because prices respond to surprises versus expectations.
The cited macro reports do not establish a particular SPY price effect.
Point-in-time constituent weights are required for company-specific headlines.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-09-01T14:46:00+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Oil prices rise and stocks fall after US hits Iranian sites in the Strait of Hormuz

2026-08-31 14:32:16.000 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust.

Supporting reports

Oil prices rise and stocks fall after US hits Iranian sites in the Strait of Hormuz

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
Macro direction alone is insufficient because prices respond to surprises versus expectations.
The cited macro reports do not establish a particular SPY price effect.
Point-in-time constituent weights are required for company-specific headlines.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-31T14:32:16.000+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Inflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meeting

2026-08-29 21:59:45.000 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust.

Supporting reports

Inflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meeting

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
Macro direction alone is insufficient because prices respond to surprises versus expectations.
The cited macro reports do not establish a particular SPY price effect.
Point-in-time constituent weights are required for company-specific headlines.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-29T21:59:45.000+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Warsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meeting

2026-08-29 21:59:45.000 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust.

Supporting reports

Warsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meeting

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
Macro direction alone is insufficient because prices respond to surprises versus expectations.
The cited macro reports do not establish a particular SPY price effect.
Point-in-time constituent weights are required for company-specific headlines.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-29T21:59:45.000+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Wall Street ends lower after Warsh reaffirms inflation fight

2026-08-28 18:14:56.037 Singapore time

+0.01%

-0.10%

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	770.98 2026-08-28T10:15:00.000Z	771.0802 2026-08-28T11:15:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
4 hours	770.98 2026-08-28T10:15:00.000Z	770.239990234375 2026-08-28T14:15:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust.

Supporting reports

Wall Street ends lower after Warsh reaffirms inflation fight

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
Macro direction alone is insufficient because prices respond to surprises versus expectations.
The cited macro reports do not establish a particular SPY price effect.
Point-in-time constituent weights are required for company-specific headlines.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-28T18:14:56.037+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Stocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold up

2026-08-28 09:56:49.203 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust.

Supporting reports

Stocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold up

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
Macro direction alone is insufficient because prices respond to surprises versus expectations.
The cited macro reports do not establish a particular SPY price effect.
Point-in-time constituent weights are required for company-specific headlines.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-28T09:56:49.203+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

How to read this: a later price shows what followed, not what caused the move. Comparisons use the same market and kind of news, with results already available before this story appeared.

01
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
SPY · etf · 2 prediction records
Evidence
Publication markers · exact horizontal time

Loading public price line and publication markers…

P1 Prediction published1 Headline publishedP1 entry priceGraph badges open evidence. Timeline items jump to matching cards.

Chart readoutP1 is BULLISH ↑. Visible result record: PROOF RECEIPT · MISS (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED). 9 of 9 timed publication events are placed from left to right.
Latest public price · never a ledger grade

Last public price
Loading public price data…
From P1 entry
Entry 776.34 USD
Latest call
BULLISH ↑
Publication markers
9 of 9 timed
Publication timelineOldest → newest
Left to right matches the graph. Select an event to jump to its full card.

P2Prediction P2 · 15 Aug 2026, 12:19 SGTBEARISH prediction776.34 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
P1Prediction P1 · 17 Aug 2026, 20:19 SGTBULLISH prediction776.34 USD · PROOF RECEIPT · MISS (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
1Headline 1 · 28 Aug 2026, 09:56 SGTStocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold upCompany Or Asset
2Headline 2 · 28 Aug 2026, 18:14 SGTWall Street ends lower after Warsh reaffirms inflation fightMacro Or Policy
3Headline 3 · 29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGTInflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meetingMacro Or Policy
4Headline 4 · 29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGTWarsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meetingMacro Or Policy
5Headline 5 · 31 Aug 2026, 14:32 SGTOil prices rise and stocks fall after US hits Iranian sites in the Strait of HormuzMacro Or Policy
6Headline 6 · 01 Sept 2026, 14:46 SGTGlobal bond rout deepens as oil prices jump; wheat prices reach their highest since early 2023Macro Or Policy
7Headline 7 · 02 Sept 2026, 16:54 SGTA global bond sell-off deepened amid energy-led inflation and borrowing-cost fears.Macro Or Policy
Latest prediction · P1
P1

BULLISH · 776.34 USDPROOF RECEIPT · MISS (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)

Published
17 Aug 2026, 20:19 SGT
Deadline
18 Aug 2026, 16:19 SGT

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: immutable proof receipt MISS. This is a traceable read-only result, not a Founder stamp. P1 remains at its original publication time.

A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.

P1 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
Headlines · 7 · oldest first
1

Stocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold upPublished · 28 Aug 2026, 09:56 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: Medium materiality 73/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Equities / Stock MarketsMedium · 73/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear SPY
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Negative

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

2

Wall Street ends lower after Warsh reaffirms inflation fightPublished · 28 Aug 2026, 18:14 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 89/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Equities / Stock MarketsHigh · 89/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear SPY
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

3

Inflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meetingPublished · 29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 88/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Public Policy & GovernmentHigh · 88/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear SPY
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

4

Warsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meetingPublished · 29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: Medium materiality 72/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Public Policy & GovernmentMedium · 72/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear SPY
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

5

Oil prices rise and stocks fall after US hits Iranian sites in the Strait of HormuzPublished · 31 Aug 2026, 14:32 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 80/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Equities / Stock MarketsHigh · 80/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear SPY
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Mixed

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

6

Global bond rout deepens as oil prices jump; wheat prices reach their highest since early 2023Published · 01 Sept 2026, 14:46 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 89/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

CommoditiesHigh · 89/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear SPY
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

7

A global bond sell-off deepened amid energy-led inflation and borrowing-cost fears.Published · 02 Sept 2026, 16:54 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 86/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

C121 Source-timed Current EventsHigh · 86/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear SPY
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗
Prediction history · 1 earlier · newest first
1. P2
  
  BEARISH · 776.34 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
  
  Published
  15 Aug 2026, 12:19 SGT
  Deadline
  16 Aug 2026, 08:19 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P2 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
Graph LearningHow news has moved SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust beforeOpen the complete asset-specific memory
OTR GRAPH LEARNING
What OTR sees for SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
An extra check. It does not replace the other evidence.

earnings breadth, growth, inflation, rates, risk appetite and concentration · Rais and Bryce wear broad-market and macro-risk analysts.

What this is: An ETF designed to track the S&P 500, a float-adjusted market-cap-weighted basket of large U.S. companies across all 11 major sectors.
Headlines that may cause the price of this investible to go up
Broad earnings and free-cash-flow upgrades, especially from the largest index weights.
Solid growth with easing inflation that lowers discount-rate pressure without signalling recession.
Stronger productivity, capital investment, and consumption confirmed by official data.
Headlines that may cause the price of this investible to go down
Earnings misses or guidance cuts among the largest market-cap constituents.
Inflation or policy surprises that raise real yields and valuation pressure.
Recession, unemployment, credit stress, or a sharp consumption slowdown.
What OTR checks
SPY holdings and concentration of the top ten weights
Aggregate and sector earnings revisions, margins, and free cash flow
BEA GDP, consumption, income, saving, and business investment
BLS inflation, jobs, wages, and productivity
21 saved news time checks4 completed1 rose1 fell2 roughly flat

ASSET-SPECIFIC NEWS MEMORYWhat the news may mean here
0 supportive, 0 pressuring and 7 mixed or unclear asset-specific news signals.
7 linked headlines classified for this investible; 7 independent event samples. There is not yet a clear checked move suitable for a match test.
Can OTR use this for a prediction yet?Not for extra weight yet. The label must be frozen before the outcome and repeat in forward checks first.
Open the full Graph Learning analysis
Past
7 saved story relationships, 4 eligible measured windows. New story bindings add no measured outcome.
Now
News that may help includes Broad earnings and free-cash-flow upgrades, especially from the largest index weights.; Solid growth with easing inflation that lowers discount-rate pressure without signalling recession.. News that may hurt includes Earnings misses or guidance cuts among the largest market-cap constituents.; Inflation or policy surprises that raise real yields and valuation pressure.. OTR also watches SPY holdings and concentration of the top ten weights, Aggregate and sector earnings revisions, margins, and free cash flow, BEA GDP, consumption, income, saving, and business investment.
Next prediction
Future calls require their own fresh entry and frozen rules. Historical context never substitutes for missing outcome evidence.
When this can mislead
A few mega-cap stocks can outweigh weakness across most constituents.; Good economic data can hurt if it raises expected rates more than earnings.; Weak data can lift prices if markets expect faster easing.; Index rebalancing, options expiry, and passive flows can dominate short windows.
Saved headline-move memory
A global bond sell-off deepened amid energy-led inflation and borrowing-cost fears.02 Sept 2026, 16:54 SGT
1h · was roughly flat 0.00%4h · rose 0.22%20h · not checked yet
Global bond rout deepens as oil prices jump; wheat prices reach their highest since early 202301 Sept 2026, 14:46 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Oil prices rise and stocks fall after US hits Iranian sites in the Strait of Hormuz31 Aug 2026, 14:32 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Inflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meeting29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Warsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meeting29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Wall Street ends lower after Warsh reaffirms inflation fight28 Aug 2026, 18:14 SGT
1h · was roughly flat 0.01%4h · fell 0.10%20h · not checked yet
Stocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold up28 Aug 2026, 09:56 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Clue, not proof: timing is a clue, never proof. A price move after a headline does not prove the headline caused it. OTR uses a pattern only after it repeats and still holds up against the wider market.

One timeline of saved evidence

Publication, issuance, review deadlines and actual observations retain their distinct dates.

Open 11 dated moments

Recorded time	Moment	Evidence
2026-08-15T04:19:00.000Z	Prediction	Original fall prediction
2026-08-16T00:19:00.000Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-08-17T12:19:00.000Z	Prediction	Original rise prediction
2026-08-18T08:19:00.000Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-08-28T01:56:49.203Z	Story	Stocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold up
2026-08-28T10:14:56.037Z	Story	Wall Street ends lower after Warsh reaffirms inflation fight
2026-08-29T13:59:45.000Z	Story	Inflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meeting
2026-08-29T13:59:45.000Z	Story	Warsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meeting
2026-08-31T06:32:16.000Z	Story	Oil prices rise and stocks fall after US hits Iranian sites in the Strait of Hormuz
2026-09-01T06:46:00.000Z	Story	Global bond rout deepens as oil prices jump; wheat prices reach their highest since early 2023
2026-09-02T08:54:00.000Z	Story	A global bond sell-off deepened amid energy-led inflation and borrowing-cost fears.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust: predictions, prices and linked headlines

What happened after saved stories about SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

7 saved story matches

19 out of 100 ready for comparison

No repeated twenty-hour direction can be shown yet

Supporting reports

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Latest prediction · P1

Headlines · 7 · oldest first

Prediction history · 1 earlier · newest first

Headlines that may cause the price of this investible to go up

Headlines that may cause the price of this investible to go down

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Saved headline-move memory

One timeline of saved evidence