Long Term: AeroVironment
Explore this signal
Long Term at a glance
Short reader summary
Delivery orders and a counter-UAS award do not establish earned cash or sustained margins. US$117.52 is the frozen Friday reference; no shares were bought.
Exact asset or item
AeroVironment common shares
Asset type
Listed investment
Reference price
117.52
Currency code
USD
Price observed at
2026-11-13T16:00:00-05:00
What this number represents
Tracking price
What remains unproven
No trade. Delivery orders, contract ceilings, acceptance and collected cash are distinct. MOU is not a purchase.
Exact asset or item
Exact asset or item
AeroVironment common shares
Asset type
Listed investment
Ticker
AVAV
Exchange
NASDAQ
How to identify this exact asset
NASDAQ AVAV common shares, USD per share; three-year research horizon.
Price and what it means
Entry or reference price
117.52
Currency code
USD
Price observed at
2026-11-13T16:00:00-05:00
What this number represents
Tracking price
Price evidence status
Verified
Price source
Publisher: Stock Analysis
Original language: English
Reading access: partial
Underlying origin: AVAV-S9
published date precision: day
retrieved date precision: day
Source publication date 2026-11-13
Source retrieval date 2026-11-15
Matching price source ID
AVAV-S9
Purchase, sale and realised profit
Permanent original entry: USD 117.52 per share, 13 November 2026 at 16:00 EST, Stock Analysis history page (full link in Sources). Latest checked price: same USD 117.52 Friday regular-session quote; no newer qualified regular-session update. Price change: 0.00% measured against the identical initial frozen observation, NOT realised profit. Estimated result after stated costs: NOT ASSESSABLE; commissions, FX, custody and individual tax not priced, and no shares bought. Actually sold? NO, no trade. Forecast status: NOT YET DUE. Initial full hypothesis and downside/upside cases remain frozen in this issue; later contradictory evidence must be added as a separately dated update rather than rewriting this baseline. Next review: 15 May 2027 (interim event checks described above).
The developments we connected
Separate development
What changed
Revenue and cash conversion diverge
Date of the development
Evidence status
Observed
What the evidence shows
Quarter revenue US$480.5m, GAAP operating loss aboutUS$10.9m; operating cash positive but equipment/software investment exceeded it.
Source IDs
- AVAV-S2
- AVAV-S3
What changed
MOU is not a paid contract
Date of the development
Evidence status
Observed
What the evidence shows
Thunder Tiger collaboration MOU announces exploration, not a verified purchase order or cash receipt.
Source IDs
- AVAV-S7
Emerging insight
REPORT A - 26 February and 2026 August, US Army orders disclosed by AeroVironment: named delivery orders carry more weight than a broad indefinite-contract ceiling. REPORT B - 2 September 2026: an Army laser counter-UAS award suggests a second paid equipment channel, but margins and delivery milestones must be checked. REPORT C - 2026 fiscal results, first FY2027 quarterly SEC filing and 14 October Taiwan MOU: rapid expansion and foreign interest coexist with an operating loss and an unsigned foreign commercial path. Hidden link: recurring spare drones, counter-UAS sustainment and maintenance can matter more than equipment headlines.
How this exact asset could benefit
The company supplies small uncrewed systems, loitering munitions, space/defence equipment and anti-drone equipment. The beneficiaries are shareholders only if ordered systems are accepted, billed and eventually collected at margins exceeding production and development costs. Proven: issued Army delivery orders, reported consolidated revenue and SEC financial statements. Not proven: conversion of a contract ceiling into funded deliveries, a payable Taiwan contract, after-service margin or consistent per-share free cash flow.
Who could benefit
Who
AeroVironment and conditionally shareholders
How they could benefit
Accepted, invoiced and collected orders must exceed production, integration, R&D and financing costs.
Evidence status
Still unproven
What we observed
26 February 2026, United States: AeroVironment announced an approximately USD 186 million US Army delivery order for Switchblade munitions. In June it reported FY2026 revenue around USD 1.98 billion, up 141%, after acquisition effects; growth percentage alone does not prove organic margins. In August it announced a separate USD 51 million Army order, and on 2 September a nearly USD 465 million LOCUST counter-UAS award. In October it signed a memorandum of understanding with Taiwan-based Thunder Tiger to explore collaboration, not a signed paid purchase. The first quarter of fiscal 2027 showed revenue around USD 480.5 million, but its SEC statement disclosed a GAAP operating loss. This makes cash conversion the central unresolved issue.
What remains unproven
Paid Taiwan contract, all LOCUST funding obligations, accepted deliveries, sustained service margins and per-share free cash flow unproved.
What to check before acting
Entry conditions
At USD 117.52 on 13 November, the share has undergone a major drawdown; lower price does not itself mean cheap. Stock Analysis market capitalisation stood near USD 5.95 billion and one-year market-cap decline near 63%; acquisition integration and non-cash charges complicate comparisons. The FY2027 first-quarter GAAP loss means a normal earnings multiple is unreliable. A valuation requires backlog burn, gross margin by division and recurring cash after working-capital and R&D needs.
Possible upside
Accepted systems and sustainment orders convert into durable cash after investment.
Possible downside
Procurement slows while integration, working capital and production costs depress cash.
Price or return range method
Downside: production and acquisitions produce weak margins, procurement slows and liquidity tightens. Base: existing funded orders ship while integration costs remain material, with no automatic multiple recovery. Upside: delivered systems and sustainment orders produce durable gross margins, profits and cash. Numerical future-price ranges NOT ESTIMATED due to uncertain unit economics, operating losses and contract timing.
Costs and fees
Brokerage, exchange fees, FX, custody and personal taxes vary and have not been individually priced. No trades or realised gains.
How hard it may be to sell
NASDAQ shares through eligible brokerage; market hours, spreads and settlement apply, no guarantees.
Key risks
Main risks: defence procurement politics, export licensing, complex integration, counter-UAS technical performance, concentration in government customers, working-capital needs and valuation volatility. Alternative case: bookings reflect one-off military replenishment and do not create profitable follow-on service sales. Disproof: by May 2027, reported operating losses persist, funded delivery backlog does not convert and cash receipts fail to follow announced order values. These are listed shares, so a reader may generally sell through an eligible brokerage during exchange hours, but price, spread, trading access and settlement are not guaranteed. Fees may include brokerage commissions, exchange or regulatory fees, foreign-exchange spread and personal taxes depending on residence; exact amounts were not independently verified. The share price can lose substantial value, even when the company grows. No margin borrowing or executed trades are assumed.
What an ordinary reader can do next
Keep three separate columns: funded order received, goods accepted, cash collected. Read the actual SEC filing rather than using a backlog headline to forecast earnings. Treat the Taiwan memorandum as a research question, not a signed buyer. Review export rules and production acceptance before any personal investment decision.
Original forecast record
Original forecast in full
Long Term: AeroVironment Category: Shares Exact asset: NASDAQ: AVAV | common shares Country and currency: United States, USD Published: 15 November 2026, 18:53 SGT Information cutoff: 15 November 2026, 18:53 SGT Main time horizon: 3 years Current position: RESEARCH WATCH
The opportunity in one sentence
A drone maker is adding anti-drone defence systems, but funded orders, deliveries and earned cash must not be confused with contract ceilings or partnership publicity.
Entry price and date
Reference entry price: USD 117.52 per common share. Price observed: 13 November 2026, 16:00 EST (14 November 2026, 05:00 SGT). Market: NASDAQ: AVAV. Source/market: Stock Analysis historical regular-session US-listed market close. Type: historical market quote, not an ask, executable order or completed sale. Ordinary reader access: subject to brokerage and market eligibility, spreads, foreign exchange and fees. Entry note: tracking price ONLY, NOT an actual purchase. There is no executable 15 November Sunday quote.
What changed?
26 February 2026, United States: AeroVironment announced an approximately USD 186 million US Army delivery order for Switchblade munitions. In June it reported FY2026 revenue around USD 1.98 billion, up 141%, after acquisition effects; growth percentage alone does not prove organic margins. In August it announced a separate USD 51 million Army order, and on 2 September a nearly USD 465 million LOCUST counter-UAS award. In October it signed a memorandum of understanding with Taiwan-based Thunder Tiger to explore collaboration, not a signed paid purchase. The first quarter of fiscal 2027 showed revenue around USD 480.5 million, but its SEC statement disclosed a GAAP operating loss. This makes cash conversion the central unresolved issue.
The connection most people may miss
REPORT A - 26 February and 2026 August, US Army orders disclosed by AeroVironment: named delivery orders carry more weight than a broad indefinite-contract ceiling. REPORT B - 2 September 2026: an Army laser counter-UAS award suggests a second paid equipment channel, but margins and delivery milestones must be checked. REPORT C - 2026 fiscal results, first FY2027 quarterly SEC filing and 14 October Taiwan MOU: rapid expansion and foreign interest coexist with an operating loss and an unsigned foreign commercial path. Hidden link: recurring spare drones, counter-UAS sustainment and maintenance can matter more than equipment headlines.
How this could make money
The company supplies small uncrewed systems, loitering munitions, space/defence equipment and anti-drone equipment. The beneficiaries are shareholders only if ordered systems are accepted, billed and eventually collected at margins exceeding production and development costs. Proven: issued Army delivery orders, reported consolidated revenue and SEC financial statements. Not proven: conversion of a contract ceiling into funded deliveries, a payable Taiwan contract, after-service margin or consistent per-share free cash flow.
Why the entry price matters
At USD 117.52 on 13 November, the share has undergone a major drawdown; lower price does not itself mean cheap. Stock Analysis market capitalisation stood near USD 5.95 billion and one-year market-cap decline near 63%; acquisition integration and non-cash charges complicate comparisons. The FY2027 first-quarter GAAP loss means a normal earnings multiple is unreliable. A valuation requires backlog burn, gross margin by division and recurring cash after working-capital and R&D needs.
Time-horizon forecast
Horizon Review date What we expect / need to see What would challenge it 6 months 15 May 2027 Reconcile funded US Army orders, recognised revenue and completed deliveries Army order deliveries delayed or cancelled 1 year 15 November 2027 Check whether laser counter-UAS award reaches first accepted deliveries Laser system technical acceptance or quality fails 2 years 15 November 2028 Inspect inventory, production costs, customer payments and GAAP operating margin Losses persist and revenue recognition outruns collections 3 years 15 November 2029 Evidence of renewal, sustainment and export contract approvals, not MOU headlines No Taiwan formal contract or export authorisation 4 years 15 November 2030 Positive operating cash after R&D and facility investment over a full year Procurement or competitive pressure reduces margins 5 years 15 November 2031 Per-share returns after potential dilution and acquisition amortisation Dilution or capex absorbs enterprise sales growth
- 15 May 2027Orders versus completed deliveries
- 15 November 2027Accepted laser-system deliveries
- 15 November 2028Inventory, payments and margins
- 15 November 2029Sustainment and export approvals
- 15 November 2030Cash after investment
- 15 November 2031Per-share returns and dilution
- Supplied original LongTerm dossier · 2026-11-15
Possible price outcomes
Downside: production and acquisitions produce weak margins, procurement slows and liquidity tightens. Base: existing funded orders ship while integration costs remain material, with no automatic multiple recovery. Upside: delivered systems and sustainment orders produce durable gross margins, profits and cash. Numerical future-price ranges NOT ESTIMATED due to uncertain unit economics, operating losses and contract timing.
What could go wrong?
Main risks: defence procurement politics, export licensing, complex integration, counter-UAS technical performance, concentration in government customers, working-capital needs and valuation volatility. Alternative case: bookings reflect one-off military replenishment and do not create profitable follow-on service sales. Disproof: by May 2027, reported operating losses persist, funded delivery backlog does not convert and cash receipts fail to follow announced order values. These are listed shares, so a reader may generally sell through an eligible brokerage during exchange hours, but price, spread, trading access and settlement are not guaranteed. Fees may include brokerage commissions, exchange or regulatory fees, foreign-exchange spread and personal taxes depending on residence; exact amounts were not independently verified. The share price can lose substantial value, even when the company grows. No margin borrowing or executed trades are assumed.
What an ordinary person can do
Keep three separate columns: funded order received, goods accepted, cash collected. Read the actual SEC filing rather than using a backlog headline to forecast earnings. Treat the Taiwan memorandum as a research question, not a signed buyer. Review export rules and production acceptance before any personal investment decision.
What happens next?
Review by 15 February 2027 for another SEC-reported quarter, updated funded-backlog and counter-UAS shipment acceptance. This is an OTR checkpoint, not a company-announced reporting date.
OTR tracking record
Permanent original entry: USD 117.52 per share, 13 November 2026 at 16:00 EST, Stock Analysis history page (full link in Sources). Latest checked price: same USD 117.52 Friday regular-session quote; no newer qualified regular-session update. Price change: 0.00% measured against the identical initial frozen observation, NOT realised profit. Estimated result after stated costs: NOT ASSESSABLE; commissions, FX, custody and individual tax not priced, and no shares bought. Actually sold? NO, no trade. Forecast status: NOT YET DUE. Initial full hypothesis and downside/upside cases remain frozen in this issue; later contradictory evidence must be added as a separately dated update rather than rewriting this baseline. Next review: 15 May 2027 (interim event checks described above).
Publication verification and valuation sensitivity
Original issue time remains 18:53 SGT, 15 November 2026, distinct from website publication. All ten source URLs were checked. The exact Q1 release/filing date is 9 September; the separate US$51m order release is 26 August. Source page masthead clocks are not event dates. The LOCUST award is US$464.8m announced contract value, not proof all money is obligated, delivered or collected. Taiwan’s MOU is not proof of a purchase. No weapons acquisition or technical operating advice is offered.
SEC quarter cash: operating inflow US$13.496m less equipment US$44.033m and capitalised software US$5.417m equals negative US$35.954m. This publisher-defined investment-adjusted cash measure is not the issuer’s labelled free cash flow. Convertible principal US$747.5m, cash US$278.390m and short-term investments US$301.837m imply US$167.273m net principal less those liquid assets, excluding lease liabilities and valuation adjustments. Convertible terms can affect dilution. No sustainable cash generation is inferred from positive operating inflow alone.
View chart values
| Step | Kind | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Operating cash | start | 13.496 |
| Equipment | change | -44.033 |
| Capitalised software | change | -5.417 |
| After these investments | total | -35.954 |
- FY2027Q1 SEC cash flow statement · 2026-09-09
Approximate equity value US$5.95bn divided by FY2026 sales US$1.9768bn is about 3.0 times sales, not earnings. The quote provider’s headline market cap is US$5.95bn while its annual table shows US$5.97bn; treat both as approximate, not a precise valuation. Its US$6.22bn EV is not interchangeable with equity value. A hypothetical annual US$2bn sales base with investment-adjusted cash margins of -2%, 5%, 10% yields -US$40m/US$100m/US$200m. Relative to US$5.95bn equity those are approximately -0.7%/1.7%/3.4%, not shareholder yields or forecasts. No justified P/E, target price or DCF is manufactured from an operating-loss quarter, uncertain margins and unverified forward cash inputs. The original qualitative scenarios remain unchanged.
| Model sales, US$bn | Cash margin assumption | Model cash, US$m | Relative to US$5.95bn equity |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | -2% | -40 | -0.7% |
| 2 | 5% | 100 | 1.7% |
| 2 | 10% | 200 | 3.4% |
- Publisher scenario assumptions · 2026-11-15
- Approximate market value · 2026-11-13
Sources
The per-entry check timestamp below is the research-session audit check, not a confirmed native web-server response completion. "Indexed" items may not have been readable in full; no unverified link counts as proof of a completed contract or cash receipt. 1. Fiscal 2026 Fourth Quarter and Annual Results | AeroVironment | Original: 29 Jun 2026 | Source country/language: United States / English https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-announces-fiscal-2026-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal Audited: 15 November 2026, 18:53 SGT | Supports: Reported total revenue, bookings, acquisition effects and funded backlog | Access: Indexed issuer release 2. Fiscal 2027 First Quarter Results | AeroVironment | Original: Sep 2026 | Source country/language: United States / English https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-announces-fiscal-2027-first-quarter-results Audited: 15 November 2026, 18:53 SGT | Supports: Operating revenue, quarter comparison and outlook | Access: Indexed issuer release; direct open restricted 3. FY2027 First Quarter 10-Q | US SEC / AeroVironment | Original: 2026 Q1 FY2027 | Source country/language: United States / English https://investor.avinc.com/node/21396/html Audited: 15 November 2026, 18:53 SGT | Supports: GAAP operating loss, cash-flow and acquisition accounting | Access: Indexed source / direct link checked 4. US Army Switchblade Delivery Order USD 186 million | AeroVironment | Original: 26 Feb 2026 | Source country/language: United States / English https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/av-receives-186-million-us-army-delivery-order-next-generation Audited: 15 November 2026, 18:53 SGT | Supports: One funded order versus master contract ceiling | Access: Indexed source / direct link checked 5. US Army Switchblade Follow-On Order USD 51 million | AeroVironment | Original: Aug 2026 | Source country/language: United States / English https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/av-receives-51-million-us-army-order-switchblader-600-loitering Audited: 15 November 2026, 18:53 SGT | Supports: Separate procurement order and recurring demand hypothesis | Access: Indexed source / direct link checked 6. LOCUST Counter-UAS System Army Award | AeroVironment | Original: 2 Sep 2026 | Source country/language: United States / English https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/avs-locustr-selected-nearly-500-million-army-counter-uas Audited: 15 November 2026, 18:53 SGT | Supports: Award amount versus acceptance, earnings and cash | Access: Indexed source / direct link checked 7. AV and Thunder Tiger Sign MOU | AeroVironment / Thunder Tiger | Original: 14 Oct 2026 | Source country/language: Taiwan / United States / English https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/av-and-thunder-tiger-sign-mou-explore-uncrewed-systems Audited: 15 November 2026, 18:53 SGT | Supports: Non-binding collaboration; no purchase order | Access: Indexed source / direct link checked 8. AeroVironment Acquires ESAero | Reuters | Original: 16 Mar 2026 | Source country/language: United States / English https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/drone-maker-aerovironment-buys-aerospace-engineering-firm-esaero-200-million-2026-03-16/ Audited: 15 November 2026, 18:53 SGT | Supports: Independent acquisition and integration risk | Access: Indexed independent reporting 9. AVAV Friday historical close | Stock Analysis | Original: 13 Nov 2026 16:00 EST | Source country/language: United States / English https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/avav/history/ Audited: 15 November 2026, 18:53 SGT | Supports: USD 117.52 original frozen entry price | Access: Indexed source / direct link checked 10. AVAV market capitalisation and drawdown | Stock Analysis | Original: 13 Nov 2026 | Source country/language: United States / English https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/avav/market-cap/ Audited: 15 November 2026, 18:53 SGT | Supports: Valuation context and share-price caution | Access: Indexed source / direct link checked
Original forecast date and time
2026-11-15T18:53:00+08:00
Forecasts and review dates
6 months
Review date
2027-05-15
Original forecast
Reconcile funded US Army orders, recognised revenue and completed deliveries
What to measure
Reconcile funded US Army orders, recognised revenue and completed deliveries
What must happen
Conditional review: Reconcile funded US Army orders, recognised revenue and completed deliveries
What would challenge the forecast
Army order deliveries delayed or cancelled
Current outcome
Not yet due
1 year
Review date
2027-11-15
Original forecast
Check whether laser counter-UAS award reaches first accepted deliveries
What to measure
Check whether laser counter-UAS award reaches first accepted deliveries
What must happen
Conditional review: Check whether laser counter-UAS award reaches first accepted deliveries
What would challenge the forecast
Technical acceptance or quality fails
Current outcome
Not yet due
2 years
Review date
2028-11-15
Original forecast
Inspect inventory, production costs, payments and GAAP operating margin
What to measure
Inspect inventory, production costs, payments and GAAP operating margin
What must happen
Conditional review: Inspect inventory, production costs, payments and GAAP operating margin
What would challenge the forecast
Losses persist and revenue recognition outruns collections
Current outcome
Not yet due
3 years
Review date
2029-11-15
Original forecast
Evidence of renewal, sustainment and export approvals, not MOU headlines
What to measure
Evidence of renewal, sustainment and export approvals, not MOU headlines
What must happen
Conditional review: Evidence of renewal, sustainment and export approvals, not MOU headlines
What would challenge the forecast
No Taiwan formal contract or export authorisation
Current outcome
Not yet due
4 years
Review date
2030-11-15
Original forecast
Positive operating cash after R&D and facility investment over full year
What to measure
Positive operating cash after R&D and facility investment over full year
What must happen
Conditional review: Positive operating cash after R&D and facility investment over full year
What would challenge the forecast
Procurement or competition reduces margins
Current outcome
Not yet due
5 years
Review date
2031-11-15
Original forecast
Per-share returns after dilution and acquisition amortisation
What to measure
Per-share returns after dilution and acquisition amortisation
What must happen
Conditional review: Per-share returns after dilution and acquisition amortisation
What would challenge the forecast
Dilution or capex absorbs enterprise sales growth
Current outcome
Not yet due
Sources
Dated source
Source ID
AVAV-S1
Source link and publication date
Publisher: AeroVironment / SEC
Original language: English
Reading access: partial
Underlying origin: AVAV-S1
published date precision: day
retrieved date precision: day
Source publication date 2026-06-29
Source retrieval date 2026-11-15
What this source supports
FY2026 results
Source ID
AVAV-S2
Source link and publication date
Publisher: AeroVironment / SEC
Original language: English
Reading access: partial
Underlying origin: AVAV-S2
published date precision: day
retrieved date precision: day
Source publication date 2026-09-09
Source retrieval date 2026-11-15
What this source supports
FY2027Q1 results
Source ID
AVAV-S3
Source link and publication date
Publisher: AeroVironment / SEC
Original language: English
Reading access: partial
Underlying origin: AVAV-S3
published date precision: day
retrieved date precision: day
Source publication date 2026-09-09
Source retrieval date 2026-11-15
What this source supports
FY2027Q1 SEC filing
Source ID
AVAV-S4
Source link and publication date
Publisher: AeroVironment / SEC
Original language: English
Reading access: partial
Underlying origin: AVAV-S4
published date precision: day
retrieved date precision: day
Source publication date 2026-02-26
Source retrieval date 2026-11-15
What this source supports
US$186m delivery order
Source ID
AVAV-S5
Source link and publication date
Publisher: AeroVironment / SEC
Original language: English
Reading access: partial
Underlying origin: AVAV-S5
published date precision: day
retrieved date precision: day
Source publication date 2026-08-26
Source retrieval date 2026-11-15
What this source supports
US$51m follow-on order
Source ID
AVAV-S6
Source link and publication date
Publisher: AeroVironment / SEC
Original language: English
Reading access: partial
Underlying origin: AVAV-S6
published date precision: day
retrieved date precision: day
Source publication date 2026-09-02
Source retrieval date 2026-11-15
What this source supports
LOCUST award
Source ID
AVAV-S7
Source link and publication date
Publisher: AeroVironment / SEC
Original language: English
Reading access: partial
Underlying origin: AVAV-S7
published date precision: day
retrieved date precision: day
Source publication date 2026-10-14
Source retrieval date 2026-11-15
What this source supports
Thunder Tiger MOU
Source ID
AVAV-S8
Source link and publication date
Publisher: Reuters
Original language: English
Reading access: partial
Underlying origin: AVAV-S8
published date precision: day
retrieved date precision: day
Source publication date 2026-03-16
Source retrieval date 2026-11-15
What this source supports
ESAero acquisition reporting
Source ID
AVAV-S9
Source link and publication date
Publisher: Stock Analysis
Original language: English
Reading access: partial
Underlying origin: AVAV-S9
published date precision: day
retrieved date precision: day
Source publication date 2026-11-13
Source retrieval date 2026-11-15
What this source supports
Historical quote
Source ID
AVAV-S10
Source link and publication date
Publisher: Stock Analysis
Original language: English
Reading access: partial
Underlying origin: AVAV-S10
published date precision: day
retrieved date precision: day
Source publication date 2026-11-13
Source retrieval date 2026-11-15
What this source supports
Market cap/EV context
Source limits
Ten original source URLs checked; issuer releases and SEC disclosures dominate, not ten independent confirmations. Exact date precision repaired from primary releases; original qualifications retained. Cash-margin sensitivity is hypothetical, not target price.