Long Term: Comfort Systems’ Backlog Still Needs Profitable Delivery
Explore this signal
Long Term at a glance
Short reader summary
AI infrastructure may turn electrical and cooling installers into scarce capacity providers, but the return to shareholders depends on delivering contracted work without labor and margin damage.
Exact asset or item
Comfort Systems USA common shares
Asset type
Listed investment
Reference price
1112.5
Currency code
USD
Price observed at
2026-11-13T16:00:00-05:00
What this number represents
Tracking price
What remains unproven
No trade. Historical US$1,112.50 close is not an executable entry. Backlog and customer advances are not profit.
Exact asset or item
Exact asset or item
Comfort Systems USA common shares
Asset type
Listed investment
Ticker
FIX
Exchange
NYSE
How to identify this exact asset
NYSE FIX common shares in USD; main two-year research horizon.
Price and what it means
Entry or reference price
1112.5
Currency code
USD
Price observed at
2026-11-13T16:00:00-05:00
What this number represents
Tracking price
Price evidence status
Verified
Price source
Publisher: Stock Analysis
Original language: English
Reading access: partial
Underlying origin: FIX-S8
published date precision: day
retrieved date precision: day
Source publication date 2026-11-13
Source retrieval date 2026-11-15
Matching price source ID
FIX-S8
Purchase, sale and realised profit
Original reference entry price (frozen): USD 1112.50 at 13 Nov 2026 16:00 EST, sourced from the Stock Analysis FIX historical-price page listed below. Latest checked price: same frozen close; no Sunday execution quote. Price change since original: 0.00% by definition at initiation, NOT a realized or later market move. Estimated result net of fees/taxes: not assessable because fee schedule and sale do not exist. Actually sold? NO. Forecast status: not yet due. Next review date: 15 May 2027. This original forecast and price are immutable; subsequent checks must be dated separately, even when contradicted.
The developments we connected
Separate development
What changed
First-quarter backlog
Date of the development
Evidence status
Observed
What the evidence shows
Reported backlog US$12.45bn, future work not earnings.
Source IDs
- FIX-S3
What changed
Third-quarter backlog and cash
Date of the development
Evidence status
Observed
What the evidence shows
Backlog US$17.81bn; operating cash US$1.01bn with delivery obligations still outstanding.
Source IDs
- FIX-S1
- FIX-S5
Emerging insight
REPORT A (23 Apr): backlog expanded as industrial demand grew -> REPORT B (23 Jul): operating cash increased and projects advanced -> REPORT C (22 Oct): backlog reached $17.81 billion while cash receipts stayed strong. Hidden link: skilled installation crews and factory-built modules may become a limiting input for data-center development, making execution and workforce capacity as important as equipment supply.
How this exact asset could benefit
FIX earns project fees for mechanical, electrical and plumbing installation and service. Strong backlog can later become recognized revenue and profit once work is completed; customer advances can help finance working capital. Proven: backlog, sales and cash flow rose. Unproven: that existing large contracts will all be executed on time at current margins, and that customer prepayments will become profit.
Who could benefit
Who
Comfort Systems and conditionally shareholders
How they could benefit
FIX earns project fees for mechanical, electrical and plumbing installation and service. Strong backlog can later become recognized revenue and profit once work is completed; customer advances can help finance working capital. Proven: backlog, sales and cash flow rose. Unproven: that existing large contracts will all be executed on time at current margins, and that customer prepayments will become profit.
Evidence status
Still unproven
What we observed
Comfort Systems reported first-quarter backlog of $12.45 billion on 23 April 2026, second-quarter operating cash flow of $1.14 billion on 23 July, and third-quarter backlog of $17.81 billion with $1.01 billion operating cash inflow on 22 October. Its filing discusses contract liabilities and labor or supply risks. Backlog is future work, not completed revenue. Cash collected early may be customer deposits for work still to be delivered.
What remains unproven
Timely contract execution, lasting margins and shareholder returns remain unproved.
What to check before acting
Entry conditions
The observed $1,112.50 closing reference price is not an entry recommendation. Compare it with normalized, not peak-cycle, earnings, and examine cash flow net of unusual customer prepayments. A huge backlog is not a guaranteed bargain or a committed future share return.Time-horizon forecast Horizon Review date What we need to see What would challenge it 6 months 15 May 2027 First verification of same-store backlog, revenue recognized, contract liabilities, capex, operating cash flow, workers and project margins. Backlog may reflect contract timing or price inflation rather than a durable capacity shortage; quarterly cash may benefit from temporary payment terms. 1 year 15 Nov 2027 At least two reporting cycles: Need backlog conversion, positive revenue growth and stable project gross margin after labor cost increases and capital spending. Labor shortages, project cancellations, cost overruns, AI spending rephasing, customer concentration and lower billings in excess of costs could reverse attractive cash conversion. 2 years 15 Nov 2028 Cash conversion and delivered projects; Need backlog conversion, positive revenue growth and stable project gross margin after labor cost increases and capital spending. Two consecutive quarters of falling backlog accompanied by negative operating cash flow and sustained gross margin contraction would materially undermine the thesis. 3 years 15 Nov 2029 Check whether core thesis remains valid; Need backlog conversion, positive revenue growth and stable project gross margin after labor cost increases and capital spending. Backlog may reflect contract timing or price inflation rather than a durable capacity shortage; quarterly cash may benefit from temporary payment terms. 4 years 15 Nov 2030 Look for sustained per-share/unit results, not slogans; Need backlog conversion, positive revenue growth and stable project gross margin after labor cost increases and capital spending. Labor shortages, project cancellations, cost overruns, AI spending rephasing, customer concentration and lower billings in excess of costs could reverse attractive cash conversion. 5 years 15 Nov 2031 Five-year compounding test: evidence still insufficient to quote a future price; Need backlog conversion, positive revenue growth and stable project gross margin after labor cost increases and capital spending. Two consecutive quarters of falling backlog accompanied by negative operating cash flow and sustained gross margin contraction would materially undermine the thesis. Possible price outcomes Downside scenario: weaker demand, pricing or execution, coupled with a lower valuation, could produce a material capital loss. Base scenario: reported operating trends persist without a higher valuation multiple; returns remain uncertain and could be flat or negative after costs. Upside scenario: the firm converts its stated mechanism into higher sustained per-share cash flow and the market values it accordingly. Numerical downside/base/upside prices: not estimated, because future discount rates, terminal margins and fair multiples have not been independently calibrated. These are conditional scenarios, not guaranteed returns or historical outcomes. What could go wrong? Main risk: Labor shortages, project cancellations, cost overruns, AI spending rephasing, customer concentration and lower billings in excess of costs could reverse attractive cash conversion. Another explanation: Backlog may reflect contract timing or price inflation rather than a durable capacity shortage; quarterly cash may benefit from temporary payment terms. What would prove us wrong: Two consecutive quarters of falling backlog accompanied by negative operating cash flow and sustained gross margin contraction would materially undermine the thesis.Can the reader sell it? Listed securities normally trade through authorized brokers during market hours; sale at a desired price is not guaranteed. Costs: broker commissions, spreads, custody and conversion costs vary; capital gains and withholding taxes depend on residency and product structure and are NOT estimated. Borrowing or leverage can magnify loss. Asset-specific note: Corporate actions, equity dilution and exchange-rate conversion may change per-share return; no custody or executed transaction is assumed. What an ordinary person can do Track the next issuer filing and reconcile claims to reported receipts or product usage. Check the historical share/unit price, corporate actions, valuation, broker trading rules and all fees before considering any action. Reassess if the explicit disproof trigger happens. There is no claim this asset suits every reader, and nothing should be treated as guaranteed income. What happens next? Observe the 31 Dec 2026 year-end backlog and cash-flow reporting when released; next fixed review 15 May 2027. OTR tracking record Original reference entry price (frozen): USD 1112.50 at 13 Nov 2026 16:00 EST, sourced from the Stock Analysis FIX historical-price page listed below. Latest checked price: same frozen close; no Sunday execution quote. Price change since original: 0.00% by definition at initiation, NOT a realized or later market move. Estimated result net of fees/taxes: not assessable because fee schedule and sale do not exist. Actually sold? NO. Forecast status: not yet due. Next review date: 15 May 2027. This original forecast and price are immutable; subsequent checks must be dated separately, even when contradicted. Sources 1. Third-quarter 2026 results | Comfort Systems USA | original date 22 Oct 2026 | United States / English. https://comfortsystemsusa.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/comfort-systems-usa-reports-third-quarter-2026-results Session retrieval audit: 15 Nov 2026 17:55 SGT (search/open batch, per-request clock not logged). Supports: Backlog, sales and operating cash receipts. 2. Second-quarter 2026 results | Comfort Systems USA | original date 23 Jul 2026 | United States / English. https://comfortsystemsusa.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/comfort-systems-usa-reports-second-quarter-2026-results Session retrieval audit: 15 Nov 2026 17:55 SGT (search/open batch, per-request clock not logged). Supports: Earlier cash flow, revenue and order demand. 3. First-quarter 2026 results | Comfort Systems USA | original date 23 Apr 2026 | United States / English. https://comfortsystemsusa.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/comfort-systems-usa-reports-first-quarter-2026-results Session retrieval audit: 15 Nov 2026 17:55 SGT (search/open batch, per-request clock not logged). Supports: Cash flow and backlog at preceding quarter. 4. Third-quarter 2026 10-Q analytical filing page | SEC filing mirrored by StockTitan | original date 22 Oct 2026 | United States / English. https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/FIX/10-q-comfort-systems-usa-inc-quarterly-earnings-report-16954593098e.html Session retrieval audit: 15 Nov 2026 17:55 SGT (search/open batch, per-request clock not logged). Supports: Contract liabilities, backlog conversion schedule, acquisitions and labor challenges. 5. SEC Exhibit 99.1 for third-quarter results | US SEC / Comfort Systems USA | original date 22 Oct 2026 | United States / English. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035983/000110465926118156/fix-ex99d1.htm Session retrieval audit: 15 Nov 2026 17:55 SGT (search/open batch, per-request clock not logged). Supports: SEC-hosted company reported financial amounts. 6. Q3 earnings call | Fortune | original date Oct 2026 | United States / English. https://fortune.com/company/comfort-systems-usa/earnings/q3-2026/ Session retrieval audit: 15 Nov 2026 17:55 SGT (search/open batch, per-request clock not logged). Supports: Management description of customer advances and deferred tax payment; access may be partial.7. Earnings reaction shows valuation risks | Investing.com | original date 23 Oct 2026 | Nigeria / US coverage / English. https://ng.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/earnings-call-transcript-comfort-systems-usa-tops-q3-2026-estimates-shares-fall-93CH-2755115 Session retrieval audit: 15 Nov 2026 17:55 SGT (search/open batch, per-request clock not logged). Supports: Counter-evidence: market reaction despite earnings beat. 8. FIX historical prices | Stock Analysis | original date 13 Nov 2026 quote | United States / English. https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/fix/history/ Session retrieval audit: 15 Nov 2026 17:55 SGT (search/open batch, per-request clock not logged). Supports: NYSE 13 Nov 2026 closing reference price of $1,112.50
Possible upside
Delivered projects sustain cash and per-share earnings after obligations.
Possible downside
Costs, cancellations and margin losses undermine backlog conversion.
Price or return range method
Downside scenario: weaker demand, pricing or execution, coupled with a lower valuation, could produce a material capital loss. Base scenario: reported operating trends persist without a higher valuation multiple; returns remain uncertain and could be flat or negative after costs. Upside scenario: the firm converts its stated mechanism into higher sustained per-share cash flow and the market values it accordingly. Numerical downside/base/upside prices: not estimated, because future discount rates, terminal margins and fair multiples have not been independently calibrated. These are conditional scenarios, not guaranteed returns or historical outcomes.
Costs and fees
Brokerage, exchange fees, FX, custody and personal taxes vary and have not been individually priced. No trades or realised gains.
How hard it may be to sell
NYSE shares via eligible brokerage during market hours; sale price and access not guaranteed.
Key risks
Main risk: Labor shortages, project cancellations, cost overruns, AI spending rephasing, customer concentration and lower billings in excess of costs could reverse attractive cash conversion. Another explanation: Backlog may reflect contract timing or price inflation rather than a durable capacity shortage; quarterly cash may benefit from temporary payment terms. What would prove us wrong: Two consecutive quarters of falling backlog accompanied by negative operating cash flow and sustained gross margin contraction would materially undermine the thesis.Can the reader sell it? Listed securities normally trade through authorized brokers during market hours; sale at a desired price is not guaranteed. Costs: broker commissions, spreads, custody and conversion costs vary; capital gains and withholding taxes depend on residency and product structure and are NOT estimated. Borrowing or leverage can magnify loss. Asset-specific note: Corporate actions, equity dilution and exchange-rate conversion may change per-share return; no custody or executed transaction is assumed.
What an ordinary reader can do next
Track the next issuer filing and reconcile claims to reported receipts or product usage. Check the historical share/unit price, corporate actions, valuation, broker trading rules and all fees before considering any action. Reassess if the explicit disproof trigger happens. There is no claim this asset suits every reader, and nothing should be treated as guaranteed income.
Original forecast record
Original forecast in full
Long Term: Comfort Systems USA Category: Shares Exact asset: NYSE: FIX (common stock) Country and currency: United States; USD Published: 15 November 2026, 17:55 SGT Information cutoff: 15 November 2026, 17:55 SGT Main time horizon: 2 years Current position: CONDITIONAL OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity in one sentence
AI infrastructure may turn electrical and cooling installers into scarce capacity providers, but the return to shareholders depends on delivering contracted work without labor and margin damage.
Entry price and date
Reference entry price: USD 1112.50 per unit/share. Price observed: Friday 13 November 2026, NYSE/NASDAQ regular-session closing time 16:00 EST (Saturday 14 November, 05:00 SGT). Market: NYSE: FIX. Type of price: historical market closing quote, via Stock Analysis price history. Availability: ordinary readers with brokerage access may be able to trade on a later open market, depending on jurisdiction, account eligibility, commissions and liquidity. Entry note: tracking reference ONLY, NOT an executed purchase; no price for an executable order at publication time. All share/unit change estimates require split and distribution adjustments where relevant.
What changed?
Comfort Systems reported first-quarter backlog of $12.45 billion on 23 April 2026, second-quarter operating cash flow of $1.14 billion on 23 July, and third-quarter backlog of $17.81 billion with $1.01 billion operating cash inflow on 22 October. Its filing discusses contract liabilities and labor or supply risks. Backlog is future work, not completed revenue. Cash collected early may be customer deposits for work still to be delivered.
View chart values
| Quarter end | Backlog |
|---|---|
| 31 March 2026 | 12.45 |
| 30 June 2026 | 14.06 |
| 30 September 2026 | 17.81 |
- Comfort Systems Q3 results · 22 October 2026
- Q2 results · 23 July 2026
- Q1 results · 23 April 2026
The connection most people may miss
REPORT A (23 Apr): backlog expanded as industrial demand grew -> REPORT B (23 Jul): operating cash increased and projects advanced -> REPORT C (22 Oct): backlog reached $17.81 billion while cash receipts stayed strong. Hidden link: skilled installation crews and factory-built modules may become a limiting input for data-center development, making execution and workforce capacity as important as equipment supply.
How this could make money
FIX earns project fees for mechanical, electrical and plumbing installation and service. Strong backlog can later become recognized revenue and profit once work is completed; customer advances can help finance working capital. Proven: backlog, sales and cash flow rose. Unproven: that existing large contracts will all be executed on time at current margins, and that customer prepayments will become profit.
Why the entry price matters
The observed $1,112.50 closing reference price is not an entry recommendation. Compare it with normalized, not peak-cycle, earnings, and examine cash flow net of unusual customer prepayments. A huge backlog is not a guaranteed bargain or a committed future share return.Time-horizon forecast Horizon Review date What we need to see What would challenge it 6 months 15 May 2027 First verification of same-store backlog, revenue recognized, contract liabilities, capex, operating cash flow, workers and project margins. Backlog may reflect contract timing or price inflation rather than a durable capacity shortage; quarterly cash may benefit from temporary payment terms. 1 year 15 Nov 2027 At least two reporting cycles: Need backlog conversion, positive revenue growth and stable project gross margin after labor cost increases and capital spending. Labor shortages, project cancellations, cost overruns, AI spending rephasing, customer concentration and lower billings in excess of costs could reverse attractive cash conversion. 2 years 15 Nov 2028 Cash conversion and delivered projects; Need backlog conversion, positive revenue growth and stable project gross margin after labor cost increases and capital spending. Two consecutive quarters of falling backlog accompanied by negative operating cash flow and sustained gross margin contraction would materially undermine the thesis. 3 years 15 Nov 2029 Check whether core thesis remains valid; Need backlog conversion, positive revenue growth and stable project gross margin after labor cost increases and capital spending. Backlog may reflect contract timing or price inflation rather than a durable capacity shortage; quarterly cash may benefit from temporary payment terms. 4 years 15 Nov 2030 Look for sustained per-share/unit results, not slogans; Need backlog conversion, positive revenue growth and stable project gross margin after labor cost increases and capital spending. Labor shortages, project cancellations, cost overruns, AI spending rephasing, customer concentration and lower billings in excess of costs could reverse attractive cash conversion. 5 years 15 Nov 2031 Five-year compounding test: evidence still insufficient to quote a future price; Need backlog conversion, positive revenue growth and stable project gross margin after labor cost increases and capital spending. Two consecutive quarters of falling backlog accompanied by negative operating cash flow and sustained gross margin contraction would materially undermine the thesis.
Possible price outcomes
Downside scenario: weaker demand, pricing or execution, coupled with a lower valuation, could produce a material capital loss. Base scenario: reported operating trends persist without a higher valuation multiple; returns remain uncertain and could be flat or negative after costs. Upside scenario: the firm converts its stated mechanism into higher sustained per-share cash flow and the market values it accordingly. Numerical downside/base/upside prices: not estimated, because future discount rates, terminal margins and fair multiples have not been independently calibrated. These are conditional scenarios, not guaranteed returns or historical outcomes.
What could go wrong?
Main risk: Labor shortages, project cancellations, cost overruns, AI spending rephasing, customer concentration and lower billings in excess of costs could reverse attractive cash conversion. Another explanation: Backlog may reflect contract timing or price inflation rather than a durable capacity shortage; quarterly cash may benefit from temporary payment terms. What would prove us wrong: Two consecutive quarters of falling backlog accompanied by negative operating cash flow and sustained gross margin contraction would materially undermine the thesis.Can the reader sell it? Listed securities normally trade through authorized brokers during market hours; sale at a desired price is not guaranteed. Costs: broker commissions, spreads, custody and conversion costs vary; capital gains and withholding taxes depend on residency and product structure and are NOT estimated. Borrowing or leverage can magnify loss. Asset-specific note: Corporate actions, equity dilution and exchange-rate conversion may change per-share return; no custody or executed transaction is assumed.
What an ordinary person can do
Track the next issuer filing and reconcile claims to reported receipts or product usage. Check the historical share/unit price, corporate actions, valuation, broker trading rules and all fees before considering any action. Reassess if the explicit disproof trigger happens. There is no claim this asset suits every reader, and nothing should be treated as guaranteed income.
What happens next?
Observe the 31 Dec 2026 year-end backlog and cash-flow reporting when released; next fixed review 15 May 2027.
OTR tracking record
Original reference entry price (frozen): USD 1112.50 at 13 Nov 2026 16:00 EST, sourced from the Stock Analysis FIX historical-price page listed below. Latest checked price: same frozen close; no Sunday execution quote. Price change since original: 0.00% by definition at initiation, NOT a realized or later market move. Estimated result net of fees/taxes: not assessable because fee schedule and sale do not exist. Actually sold? NO. Forecast status: not yet due. Next review date: 15 May 2027. This original forecast and price are immutable; subsequent checks must be dated separately, even when contradicted.
Dated valuation check · 15 November 2026
The original two-year thesis and six review horizons remain unchanged. Nine-month diluted EPS was US$36.94. Multiplying by 4/3 gives US$49.25: a mechanical annualisation, not guidance or normalised earnings. US$1,112.50 divided by that amount is about 22.6 times; seasonality and unusually favourable project terms can make this misleading.
At 30 September, cash was US$2,158.027m and reported debt including current maturities was US$49.555m. The US$2,108.472m difference is not distributable surplus: billings ahead of work and deferred revenue totalled US$3,872.012m, alongside other obligations. Leases and other adjustments are excluded from this simple subtraction.
View chart values
| Step | Kind | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Cash | start | 2158.027 |
| Debt including current maturities | change | -49.555 |
| Difference | total | 2108.472 |
- Comfort Systems Q3 results · 22 October 2026
Illustrative two-year sensitivity, not targets: assumed sustainable annual diluted EPS of US$30, US$40 or US$50 multiplied by assumed P/E ratios of 20, 25 or 30 gives US$600, US$1,000 or US$1,500 per share. Neither earnings nor multiples are calibrated forecasts. Dividends, taxes, fees, FX, extra dilution and financing changes are excluded. No DCF is claimed without reliable normalised cash inputs.
| Assumption | Annual diluted EPS (US$) | P/E | Model US$/share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Downside | 30 | 20 | 600 |
| Base | 40 | 25 | 1000 |
| Upside | 50 | 30 | 1500 |
- Comfort Systems Q3 results · 22 October 2026
Full confirmation needs the stated backlog, margin and cash tests together. Mixed evidence is partial; unavailable evidence remains unresolved, not a failure. The source’s call-transcript date is now identified as 23 October 2026; it is not an independent audit.
Sources
1. Third-quarter 2026 results | Comfort Systems USA | original date 22 Oct 2026 | United States / English. https://comfortsystemsusa.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/comfort-systems-usa-reports-third-quarter-2026-results Session retrieval audit: 15 Nov 2026 17:55 SGT (search/open batch, per-request clock not logged). Supports: Backlog, sales and operating cash receipts. 2. Second-quarter 2026 results | Comfort Systems USA | original date 23 Jul 2026 | United States / English. https://comfortsystemsusa.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/comfort-systems-usa-reports-second-quarter-2026-results Session retrieval audit: 15 Nov 2026 17:55 SGT (search/open batch, per-request clock not logged). Supports: Earlier cash flow, revenue and order demand. 3. First-quarter 2026 results | Comfort Systems USA | original date 23 Apr 2026 | United States / English. https://comfortsystemsusa.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/comfort-systems-usa-reports-first-quarter-2026-results Session retrieval audit: 15 Nov 2026 17:55 SGT (search/open batch, per-request clock not logged). Supports: Cash flow and backlog at preceding quarter. 4. Third-quarter 2026 10-Q analytical filing page | SEC filing mirrored by StockTitan | original date 22 Oct 2026 | United States / English. https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/FIX/10-q-comfort-systems-usa-inc-quarterly-earnings-report-16954593098e.html Session retrieval audit: 15 Nov 2026 17:55 SGT (search/open batch, per-request clock not logged). Supports: Contract liabilities, backlog conversion schedule, acquisitions and labor challenges. 5. SEC Exhibit 99.1 for third-quarter results | US SEC / Comfort Systems USA | original date 22 Oct 2026 | United States / English. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035983/000110465926118156/fix-ex99d1.htm Session retrieval audit: 15 Nov 2026 17:55 SGT (search/open batch, per-request clock not logged). Supports: SEC-hosted company reported financial amounts. 6. Q3 earnings call | Fortune | original date Oct 2026 | United States / English. https://fortune.com/company/comfort-systems-usa/earnings/q3-2026/ Session retrieval audit: 15 Nov 2026 17:55 SGT (search/open batch, per-request clock not logged). Supports: Management description of customer advances and deferred tax payment; access may be partial.7. Earnings reaction shows valuation risks | Investing.com | original date 23 Oct 2026 | Nigeria / US coverage / English. https://ng.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/earnings-call-transcript-comfort-systems-usa-tops-q3-2026-estimates-shares-fall-93CH-2755115 Session retrieval audit: 15 Nov 2026 17:55 SGT (search/open batch, per-request clock not logged). Supports: Counter-evidence: market reaction despite earnings beat. 8. FIX historical prices | Stock Analysis | original date 13 Nov 2026 quote | United States / English. https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/fix/history/ Session retrieval audit: 15 Nov 2026 17:55 SGT (search/open batch, per-request clock not logged). Supports: NYSE 13 Nov 2026 closing reference price of $1,112.50.
Original forecast date and time
2026-11-15T17:55:00+08:00
Forecasts and review dates
6 months
Review date
2027-05-15
Original forecast
First verification of same-store backlog, revenue recognized, contract liabilities, capex, operating cash flow, workers and project margins.
What to measure
First verification of same-store backlog, revenue recognized, contract liabilities, capex, operating cash flow, workers and project margins.
What must happen
First verification of same-store backlog, revenue recognized, contract liabilities, capex, operating cash flow, workers and project margins.
What would challenge the forecast
Backlog may reflect contract timing or price inflation rather than a durable capacity shortage; quarterly cash may benefit from temporary payment terms.
Current outcome
Not yet due
1 year
Review date
2027-11-15
Original forecast
At least two reporting cycles: Need backlog conversion, positive revenue growth and stable project gross margin after labor cost increases and capital spending.
What to measure
At least two reporting cycles: Need backlog conversion, positive revenue growth and stable project gross margin after labor cost increases and capital spending.
What must happen
At least two reporting cycles: Need backlog conversion, positive revenue growth and stable project gross margin after labor cost increases and capital spending.
What would challenge the forecast
Labor shortages, project cancellations, cost overruns, AI spending rephasing, customer concentration and lower billings in excess of costs could reverse attractive cash conversion.
Current outcome
Not yet due
2 years
Review date
2028-11-15
Original forecast
Cash conversion and delivered projects; Need backlog conversion, positive revenue growth and stable project gross margin after labor cost increases and capital spending.
What to measure
Cash conversion and delivered projects; Need backlog conversion, positive revenue growth and stable project gross margin after labor cost increases and capital spending.
What must happen
Cash conversion and delivered projects; Need backlog conversion, positive revenue growth and stable project gross margin after labor cost increases and capital spending.
What would challenge the forecast
Two consecutive quarters of falling backlog accompanied by negative operating cash flow and sustained gross margin contraction would materially undermine the thesis.
Current outcome
Not yet due
3 years
Review date
2029-11-15
Original forecast
Check whether core thesis remains valid; Need backlog conversion, positive revenue growth and stable project gross margin after labor cost increases and capital spending.
What to measure
Check whether core thesis remains valid; Need backlog conversion, positive revenue growth and stable project gross margin after labor cost increases and capital spending.
What must happen
Check whether core thesis remains valid; Need backlog conversion, positive revenue growth and stable project gross margin after labor cost increases and capital spending.
What would challenge the forecast
Backlog may reflect contract timing or price inflation rather than a durable capacity shortage; quarterly cash may benefit from temporary payment terms.
Current outcome
Not yet due
4 years
Review date
2030-11-15
Original forecast
Look for sustained per-share/unit results, not slogans; Need backlog conversion, positive revenue growth and stable project gross margin after labor cost increases and capital spending.
What to measure
Look for sustained per-share/unit results, not slogans; Need backlog conversion, positive revenue growth and stable project gross margin after labor cost increases and capital spending.
What must happen
Look for sustained per-share/unit results, not slogans; Need backlog conversion, positive revenue growth and stable project gross margin after labor cost increases and capital spending.
What would challenge the forecast
Labor shortages, project cancellations, cost overruns, AI spending rephasing, customer concentration and lower billings in excess of costs could reverse attractive cash conversion.
Current outcome
Not yet due
5 years
Review date
2031-11-15
Original forecast
Five-year compounding test: evidence still insufficient to quote a future price; Need backlog conversion, positive revenue growth and stable project gross margin after labor cost increases and capital spending.
What to measure
Five-year compounding test: evidence still insufficient to quote a future price; Need backlog conversion, positive revenue growth and stable project gross margin after labor cost increases and capital spending.
What must happen
Five-year compounding test: evidence still insufficient to quote a future price; Need backlog conversion, positive revenue growth and stable project gross margin after labor cost increases and capital spending.
What would challenge the forecast
Two consecutive quarters of falling backlog accompanied by negative operating cash flow and sustained gross margin contraction would materially undermine the thesis.
Current outcome
Not yet due
Sources
Dated source
Source ID
FIX-S1
Source link and publication date
Publisher: Comfort Systems
Original language: English
Reading access: partial
Underlying origin: FIX-S1
published date precision: day
retrieved date precision: day
Source publication date 2026-10-22
Source retrieval date 2026-11-15
What this source supports
Q3 results
Source ID
FIX-S2
Source link and publication date
Publisher: Comfort Systems
Original language: English
Reading access: partial
Underlying origin: FIX-S2
published date precision: day
retrieved date precision: day
Source publication date 2026-07-23
Source retrieval date 2026-11-15
What this source supports
Q2 results
Source ID
FIX-S3
Source link and publication date
Publisher: Comfort Systems
Original language: English
Reading access: partial
Underlying origin: FIX-S3
published date precision: day
retrieved date precision: day
Source publication date 2026-04-23
Source retrieval date 2026-11-15
What this source supports
Q1 results
Source ID
FIX-S4
Source link and publication date
Publisher: StockTitan SEC mirror
Original language: English
Reading access: partial
Underlying origin: FIX-S4
published date precision: day
retrieved date precision: day
Source publication date 2026-10-22
Source retrieval date 2026-11-15
What this source supports
Q3 filing mirror
Source ID
FIX-S5
Source link and publication date
Publisher: SEC / Comfort Systems
Original language: English
Reading access: partial
Underlying origin: FIX-S5
published date precision: day
retrieved date precision: day
Source publication date 2026-10-22
Source retrieval date 2026-11-15
What this source supports
SEC results exhibit
Source ID
FIX-S6
Source link and publication date
Publisher: Fortune
Original language: English
Reading access: partial
Underlying origin: FIX-S6
published date precision: day
retrieved date precision: day
Source publication date 2026-10-23
Source retrieval date 2026-11-15
What this source supports
Q3 earnings call
Source ID
FIX-S7
Source link and publication date
Publisher: Investing.com
Original language: English
Reading access: partial
Underlying origin: FIX-S7
published date precision: day
retrieved date precision: day
Source publication date 2026-10-23
Source retrieval date 2026-11-15
What this source supports
Earnings reaction
Source ID
FIX-S8
Source link and publication date
Publisher: Stock Analysis
Original language: English
Reading access: partial
Underlying origin: FIX-S8
published date precision: day
retrieved date precision: day
Source publication date 2026-11-13
Source retrieval date 2026-11-15
What this source supports
Historical quote
Source limits
Eight supplied links reopened; sources include same-company results and SEC duplicate, not eight independent validations. Fortune transcript access partial. Source dates repaired visibly; no measured sentiment claimed.