US Dollar Index Fund
UUP · currency_etf · 6 prediction records
Publication markers · exact horizontal time
P1 Prediction published1 Headline publishedP1 entry priceGraph badges open evidence. Timeline items jump to matching cards.
Chart readoutP1 is BEARISH ↓. Visible result record: NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT. 11 of 11 timed publication events are placed from left to right.
Latest public price · never a ledger grade- Last public price
- Loading public price data…
- From P1 entry
- Entry 28.139999389648438 USD
- Latest call
- BEARISH ↓
- Publication markers
- 11 of 11 timed
Publication timelineOldest → newest
Left to right matches the graph. Select an event to jump to its full card.
- P6Prediction P6 · 11 Aug 2026, 10:17 SGTBEARISH prediction28.14 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
- P5Prediction P5 · 12 Aug 2026, 20:15 SGTBULLISH prediction28.14 USD · PROOF RECEIPT · HIT (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
- P4Prediction P4 · 14 Aug 2026, 09:32 SGTBULLISH prediction28.18 USD · PROOF RECEIPT · MISS (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
- P3Prediction P3 · 17 Aug 2026, 03:17 SGTBULLISH prediction28.11 USD · PROOF RECEIPT · MISS (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
- P2Prediction P2 · 17 Aug 2026, 20:19 SGTBEARISH prediction28.11 USD · PROOF RECEIPT · HIT (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
- P1Prediction P1 · 19 Aug 2026, 20:41 SGTBEARISH prediction28.139999389648438 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
- 1Headline 1 · 28 Aug 2026, 09:56 SGTStocks fall while dollar and bond yields rise after Warsh prompts rate-hike betsCompany Or Asset
- 2Headline 2 · 29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGTInflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meetingMacro Or Policy
- 3Headline 3 · 29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGTWarsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meetingMacro Or Policy
- 4Headline 4 · 31 Aug 2026, 10:28 SGTGold hits near two-week low on Fed chief's hawkish stanceMacro Or Policy
- 5Headline 5 · 02 Sept 2026, 20:47 SGTThe dollar reached a two-week high while markets awaited rate paths.Digital Asset Or Financial Infrastructure
Latest prediction · P1
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P1
BEARISH · 28.139999389648438 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT - Published
- Deadline
Headlines · 5 · oldest first
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1
Stocks fall while dollar and bond yields rise after Warsh prompts rate-hike betsPublished · 28 Aug 2026, 09:56 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab. NEWS SIGNALUnclear UUPNo directionWhy: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.
- Confidence
- Low
- Strength
- Unclear
- Headline mood
- Mixed
Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.
How OTR scored this
- Event
- No Asset Specific Rule
- Link to asset
- Unmapped
- Uncertainty
- No Asset Specific Rule
- Sample
- Independent event
- Rule
- Abstain
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2
Inflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meetingPublished · 29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab. NEWS SIGNALUnclear UUPNo directionWhy: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.
- Confidence
- Low
- Strength
- Unclear
- Headline mood
- Neutral
Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.
How OTR scored this
- Event
- No Asset Specific Rule
- Link to asset
- Unmapped
- Uncertainty
- No Asset Specific Rule
- Sample
- Independent event
- Rule
- Abstain
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3
Warsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meetingPublished · 29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab. NEWS SIGNALUnclear UUPNo directionWhy: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.
- Confidence
- Low
- Strength
- Unclear
- Headline mood
- Neutral
Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.
How OTR scored this
- Event
- No Asset Specific Rule
- Link to asset
- Unmapped
- Uncertainty
- No Asset Specific Rule
- Sample
- Independent event
- Rule
- Abstain
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4
Gold hits near two-week low on Fed chief's hawkish stancePublished · 31 Aug 2026, 10:28 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab. NEWS SIGNALUnclear UUPNo directionWhy: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.
- Confidence
- Low
- Strength
- Unclear
- Headline mood
- Negative
Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.
How OTR scored this
- Event
- No Asset Specific Rule
- Link to asset
- Unmapped
- Uncertainty
- No Asset Specific Rule
- Sample
- Independent event
- Rule
- Abstain
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5
The dollar reached a two-week high while markets awaited rate paths.Published · 02 Sept 2026, 20:47 SGT · Digital Asset Or Financial InfrastructureOpens in a new tab. NEWS SIGNALUnclear UUPNo directionWhy: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.
- Confidence
- Low
- Strength
- Unclear
- Headline mood
- Positive
Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.
How OTR scored this
- Event
- No Asset Specific Rule
- Link to asset
- Unmapped
- Uncertainty
- No Asset Specific Rule
- Sample
- Independent event
- Rule
- Abstain
Prediction history · 5 earlier · newest first
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P2
BEARISH · 28.11 USDPROOF RECEIPT · HIT (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED) - Published
- Deadline
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P3
BULLISH · 28.11 USDPROOF RECEIPT · MISS (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED) - Published
- Deadline
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P4
BULLISH · 28.18 USDPROOF RECEIPT · MISS (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED) - Published
- Deadline
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P5
BULLISH · 28.14 USDPROOF RECEIPT · HIT (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED) - Published
- Deadline
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P6
BEARISH · 28.14 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT - Published
- Deadline
Graph LearningHow news has moved US Dollar Index Fund beforeOpen the complete asset-specific memory
OTR GRAPH LEARNING
An extra check. It does not replace the other evidence.What OTR sees for US Dollar Index Fund
What this is: A commodity pool seeking long exposure to the U.S. dollar against a six-currency basket through dollar-index futures, plus income from Treasury and cash collateral, less expenses.
Headlines that may cause the price of this investible to go up
- A stronger dollar against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc, especially the heavily weighted euro.
- Higher U.S. expected rates or stronger U.S. data relative to the basket economies.
- Global funding stress or safe-haven demand that supports the dollar.
Headlines that may cause the price of this investible to go down
- Federal Reserve easing or weaker U.S. data relative to the basket economies.
- Tighter foreign central-bank policy, especially from the euro area because of basket concentration.
- A broad reduction in dollar funding stress and reversal of defensive positioning.
What OTR checks
- UUP holdings, DX futures contracts, roll, collateral, NAV, and premium or discount
- ICE USDX and contribution of each basket currency
- Federal Reserve and basket-central-bank expected policy paths
- Short-rate and real-yield differentials
15 saved news time checks3 completed0 rose3 fell0 roughly flat
0 supportive, 0 pressuring and 5 mixed or unclear asset-specific news signals.
5 linked headlines classified for this investible; 5 independent event samples. There is not yet a clear checked move suitable for a match test.
Open the full Graph Learning analysis
- Past
- 5 saved story relationships, 3 eligible measured windows. New story bindings add no measured outcome.
- Now
- News that may help includes A stronger dollar against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc, especially the heavily weighted euro.; Higher U.S. expected rates or stronger U.S. data relative to the basket economies.. News that may hurt includes Federal Reserve easing or weaker U.S. data relative to the basket economies.; Tighter foreign central-bank policy, especially from the euro area because of basket concentration.. OTR also watches UUP holdings, DX futures contracts, roll, collateral, NAV, and premium or discount, ICE USDX and contribution of each basket currency, Federal Reserve and basket-central-bank expected policy paths.
- Next prediction
- Future calls require their own fresh entry and frozen rules. Historical context never substitutes for missing outcome evidence.
- When this can mislead
- UUP is a fund using futures and collateral, not the cash DXY index.; Basket concentration means euro moves can dominate broad dollar weakness elsewhere.; Interest income, fees, and futures roll create tracking differences.; Good U.S. data may already be priced or may increase risk appetite enough to weaken the dollar.
Saved headline-move memory
- The dollar reached a two-week high while markets awaited rate paths.02 Sept 2026, 20:47 SGT1h · fell 0.18%4h · fell 0.19%20h · fell 0.35%
- Gold hits near two-week low on Fed chief's hawkish stance31 Aug 2026, 10:28 SGT1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
- Inflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meeting29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGT1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
- Warsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meeting29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGT1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
- Stocks fall while dollar and bond yields rise after Warsh prompts rate-hike bets28 Aug 2026, 09:56 SGT1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Clue, not proof: timing is a clue, never proof. A price move after a headline does not prove the headline caused it. OTR uses a pattern only after it repeats and still holds up against the wider market.