GRAPH · CL=F

Oil futures: predictions, prices and linked headlines

This page keeps every Oil futures prediction and source-timed headline together. The original recorded result remains separate from later price evidence.

Line = price · P = prediction published · number = headline published.

← See all investibles

Investibles: 1
Predictions: 9
Linked headlines: 13
Timed events: 22

7 September 2026 graph update: 6 new story markers and 1 prediction points were added for this edition. The preserved history below keeps its original dates.

How OTR judges a headline

OTR asks what the event may do to this investible—not whether the words sound happy or scary. May help, may hurt, mixed or unclear is shown beside each linked headline. Later prices test the idea; timing alone never proves cause.

WHAT HAPPENED NEXT

What happened after saved stories about Oil futures

13 saved story matches

22 of 39 possible later-price checks are available.

56 out of 100 ready for comparison

This measures how many required prices were saved. It does not measure prediction skill.

Rose in 75% of its 4 complete twenty-hour checks

This only describes the past. It does not predict the next move.

Showing all 13 saved events. Open each row for the actual price times, source and earlier comparisons.

Saved story

Published

After 1 hour

After 4 hours

After 20 hours

Earlier comparisons and evidence

OPEC+ holds October oil-output quotas steady

2026-09-06 20:58:06.000 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

No pre-event same-rule comparison is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	No eligible five-minute source-timed event-window observations were retained for this new story. Hourly chart context is not substituted.	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	No eligible five-minute source-timed event-window observations were retained for this new story. Hourly chart context is not substituted.	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	No eligible five-minute source-timed event-window observations were retained for this new story. Hourly chart context is not substituted.	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to Oil futures.

Supporting reports

OPEC+ holds October oil-output quotas steady

What argues against it

The report describes a prospective review of production capacity and 2027 baselines. Disruption at the export route can outweigh announced quotas; the article provides no basis for a new directional oil-price call. Named-entity relevance does not prove price causation.
No source here proves that any single public headline caused a particular CL tick.
EIA forecasts are conditional and can change when disruption or demand assumptions change.
Continuous-series returns can include roll effects that are absent from a fixed-expiry contract.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-09-06T20:58:06.000+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

How sure is OTR?
Insufficient evidenceNo confidence number is shown because source quality, independent reports, freshness, opposing evidence, earlier comparisons, time accuracy are not fully measured.

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

US oil stocks fell while fuel demand weakened.

2026-09-02 22:38:00 Singapore time

+0.60%

+0.72%

Not measured

1 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

Oil prices rise and stocks fall after US hits Iranian sites in the Strait of Hormuz · 2026-08-31T14:32:16.000+08:00 · Rose (1.24%)

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	90.0999984741211 2026-09-02T14:40:00.000Z	90.63999938964844 2026-09-02T15:40:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
4 hours	90.0999984741211 2026-09-02T14:40:00.000Z	90.75 2026-09-02T18:40:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to Oil futures.

Supporting reports

US oil stocks fell while fuel demand weakened.

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
No source here proves that any single public headline caused a particular CL tick.
EIA forecasts are conditional and can change when disruption or demand assumptions change.
Continuous-series returns can include roll effects that are absent from a fixed-expiry contract.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-09-02T22:38:00+08:00
Similar earlier cases: 1 similar earlier case

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

The US military was reported to have struck two Iranian oil tankers.

2026-09-02 10:28:50 Singapore time

-0.19%

+0.10%

-0.07%

1 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

Oil prices rise and stocks fall after US hits Iranian sites in the Strait of Hormuz · 2026-08-31T14:32:16.000+08:00 · Rose (1.24%)

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	90.86000061035156 2026-09-02T02:30:00.000Z	90.69000244140625 2026-09-02T03:30:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
4 hours	90.86000061035156 2026-09-02T02:30:00.000Z	90.94999694824219 2026-09-02T06:30:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
20 hours	90.86000061035156 2026-09-02T02:30:00.000Z	90.80000305175781 2026-09-02T22:30:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to Oil futures.

Supporting reports

The US military was reported to have struck two Iranian oil tankers.

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
No source here proves that any single public headline caused a particular CL tick.
EIA forecasts are conditional and can change when disruption or demand assumptions change.
Continuous-series returns can include roll effects that are absent from a fixed-expiry contract.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-09-02T10:28:50+08:00
Similar earlier cases: 1 similar earlier case

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Oil prices rose to their highest level in more than a month.

2026-09-02 09:11:00 Singapore time

-0.78%

-1.18%

Not measured

1 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

Oil prices rise and stocks fall after US hits Iranian sites in the Strait of Hormuz · 2026-08-31T14:32:16.000+08:00 · Rose (1.24%)

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	91.7699966430664 2026-09-02T01:15:00.000Z	91.05000305175781 2026-09-02T02:15:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
4 hours	91.7699966430664 2026-09-02T01:15:00.000Z	90.69000244140625 2026-09-02T05:15:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to Oil futures.

Supporting reports

Oil prices rose to their highest level in more than a month.

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
No source here proves that any single public headline caused a particular CL tick.
EIA forecasts are conditional and can change when disruption or demand assumptions change.
Continuous-series returns can include roll effects that are absent from a fixed-expiry contract.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-09-02T09:11:00+08:00
Similar earlier cases: 1 similar earlier case

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Oil prices rise and stocks fall after US hits Iranian sites in the Strait of Hormuz

2026-08-31 14:32:16.000 Singapore time

-0.96%

+0.76%

+1.24%

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	85.62000274658203 2026-08-31T06:35:00.000Z	84.80000305175781 2026-08-31T07:35:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
4 hours	85.62000274658203 2026-08-31T06:35:00.000Z	86.2699966430664 2026-08-31T10:35:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
20 hours	85.62000274658203 2026-08-31T06:35:00.000Z	86.68000030517578 2026-09-01T02:35:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to Oil futures.

Supporting reports

Oil prices rise and stocks fall after US hits Iranian sites in the Strait of Hormuz

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
No source here proves that any single public headline caused a particular CL tick.
EIA forecasts are conditional and can change when disruption or demand assumptions change.
Continuous-series returns can include roll effects that are absent from a fixed-expiry contract.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-31T14:32:16.000+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Oil jumps more than 2% after U.S. attack on Iran's Larak Island

2026-08-31 06:12:07.112 Singapore time

-0.22%

+0.47%

+0.76%

1 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

Shipping traffic through Strait of Hormuz rises slightly, data shows · 2026-08-27T11:39:00.000+08:00 · Rose (2.10%)

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	85 2026-08-30T22:15:00.000Z	84.80999755859375 2026-08-30T23:15:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
4 hours	85 2026-08-30T22:15:00.000Z	85.4000015258789 2026-08-31T02:15:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
20 hours	85 2026-08-30T22:15:00.000Z	85.6500015258789 2026-08-31T18:15:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to Oil futures.

Supporting reports

Oil jumps more than 2% after U.S. attack on Iran's Larak Island

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
No source here proves that any single public headline caused a particular CL tick.
EIA forecasts are conditional and can change when disruption or demand assumptions change.
Continuous-series returns can include roll effects that are absent from a fixed-expiry contract.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-31T06:12:07.112+08:00
Similar earlier cases: 1 similar earlier case

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

U.S. forces strike Iranian launchers on Larak Island

2026-08-31 04:38:01.072 Singapore time

Not measured

1 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

Shipping traffic through Strait of Hormuz rises slightly, data shows · 2026-08-27T11:39:00.000+08:00 · Rose (2.10%)

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to Oil futures.

Supporting reports

U.S. forces strike Iranian launchers on Larak Island

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
No source here proves that any single public headline caused a particular CL tick.
EIA forecasts are conditional and can change when disruption or demand assumptions change.
Continuous-series returns can include roll effects that are absent from a fixed-expiry contract.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-31T04:38:01.072+08:00
Similar earlier cases: 1 similar earlier case

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Iran maintains its claim of control over the Strait of Hormuz

2026-08-29 10:04:15.898 Singapore time

Not measured

1 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

Shipping traffic through Strait of Hormuz rises slightly, data shows · 2026-08-27T11:39:00.000+08:00 · Rose (2.10%)

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to Oil futures.

Supporting reports

Iran maintains its claim of control over the Strait of Hormuz

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
No source here proves that any single public headline caused a particular CL tick.
EIA forecasts are conditional and can change when disruption or demand assumptions change.
Continuous-series returns can include roll effects that are absent from a fixed-expiry contract.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-29T10:04:15.898+08:00
Similar earlier cases: 1 similar earlier case

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

War and sanctions weigh on Iran's economy as trade falls

2026-08-29 10:04:15.898 Singapore time

Not measured

1 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

Shipping traffic through Strait of Hormuz rises slightly, data shows · 2026-08-27T11:39:00.000+08:00 · Rose (2.10%)

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to Oil futures.

Supporting reports

War and sanctions weigh on Iran's economy as trade falls

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
No source here proves that any single public headline caused a particular CL tick.
EIA forecasts are conditional and can change when disruption or demand assumptions change.
Continuous-series returns can include roll effects that are absent from a fixed-expiry contract.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-29T10:04:15.898+08:00
Similar earlier cases: 1 similar earlier case

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Equities rise with 2-year yields, dollar as rate hike bets rise following Warsh speech

2026-08-28 23:47:32.637 Singapore time

+0.37%

+0.34%

Not measured

1 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

Shipping traffic through Strait of Hormuz rises slightly, data shows · 2026-08-27T11:39:00.000+08:00 · Rose (2.10%)

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	83.12000274658203 2026-08-28T15:50:00.000Z	83.43000030517578 2026-08-28T16:50:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
4 hours	83.12000274658203 2026-08-28T15:50:00.000Z	83.4000015258789 2026-08-28T19:50:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to Oil futures.

Supporting reports

Equities rise with 2-year yields, dollar as rate hike bets rise following Warsh speech

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
No source here proves that any single public headline caused a particular CL tick.
EIA forecasts are conditional and can change when disruption or demand assumptions change.
Continuous-series returns can include roll effects that are absent from a fixed-expiry contract.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-28T23:47:32.637+08:00
Similar earlier cases: 1 similar earlier case

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Markets hold their breath before the Fed speech as oil falls and gold waits

2026-08-28 21:05:00.000 Singapore time

+0.06%

+1.31%

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	82.41000366210938 2026-08-28T13:05:00.000Z	82.45999908447266 2026-08-28T14:05:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
4 hours	82.41000366210938 2026-08-28T13:05:00.000Z	83.48999786376953 2026-08-28T17:05:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to Oil futures.

Supporting reports

Markets hold their breath before the Fed speech as oil falls and gold waits

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
No source here proves that any single public headline caused a particular CL tick.
EIA forecasts are conditional and can change when disruption or demand assumptions change.
Continuous-series returns can include roll effects that are absent from a fixed-expiry contract.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-28T21:05:00.000+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Oil on track for weekly loss even as Iran tensions simmer

2026-08-28 09:13:00.000 Singapore time

-0.12%

-0.16%

Not measured

1 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

Shipping traffic through Strait of Hormuz rises slightly, data shows · 2026-08-27T11:39:00.000+08:00 · Rose (2.10%)

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	83.41000366210938 2026-08-28T01:15:00.000Z	83.30999755859375 2026-08-28T02:15:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
4 hours	83.41000366210938 2026-08-28T01:15:00.000Z	83.27999877929688 2026-08-28T05:15:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to Oil futures.

Supporting reports

Oil on track for weekly loss even as Iran tensions simmer

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
No source here proves that any single public headline caused a particular CL tick.
EIA forecasts are conditional and can change when disruption or demand assumptions change.
Continuous-series returns can include roll effects that are absent from a fixed-expiry contract.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-28T09:13:00.000+08:00
Similar earlier cases: 1 similar earlier case

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Shipping traffic through Strait of Hormuz rises slightly, data shows

2026-08-27 11:39:00.000 Singapore time

-0.04%

-0.78%

+2.10%

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	81.83999633789062 2026-08-27T03:40:00.000Z	81.80999755859375 2026-08-27T04:40:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
4 hours	81.83999633789062 2026-08-27T03:40:00.000Z	81.19999694824219 2026-08-27T07:40:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
20 hours	81.83999633789062 2026-08-27T03:40:00.000Z	83.55999755859375 2026-08-27T23:40:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to Oil futures.

Supporting reports

Shipping traffic through Strait of Hormuz rises slightly, data shows

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
No source here proves that any single public headline caused a particular CL tick.
EIA forecasts are conditional and can change when disruption or demand assumptions change.
Continuous-series returns can include roll effects that are absent from a fixed-expiry contract.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-27T11:39:00.000+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

How to read this: a later price shows what followed, not what caused the move. Comparisons use the same market and kind of news, with results already available before this story appeared.

01
Updated this publish
Oil futures
CL=F · energy_future · 9 prediction records
Evidence
Publication markers · exact horizontal time

Loading public price line and publication markers…

P1 Prediction published1 Headline publishedP1 entry priceGraph badges open evidence. Timeline items jump to matching cards.

Chart readoutP1 is BEARISH ↓. Visible result record: NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT. 22 of 22 timed publication events are placed from left to right.
Latest public price · never a ledger grade

Last public price
Loading public price data…
From P1 entry
Entry 83.19 USD
Latest call
BEARISH ↓
Publication markers
22 of 22 timed
Publication timelineOldest → newest
Left to right matches the graph. Select an event to jump to its full card.

P9Prediction P9 · 20 Aug 2026, 15:21 SGTBULLISH prediction85.059997559 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
P8Prediction P8 · 20 Aug 2026, 17:22 SGTBULLISH prediction86.440002441 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
P7Prediction P7 · 20 Aug 2026, 20:41 SGTBULLISH prediction87.54000091552734 USD · PROOF RECEIPT · MISS (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
P6Prediction P6 · 21 Aug 2026, 01:53 SGTBULLISH prediction86.66000366210938 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
P5Prediction P5 · 25 Aug 2026, 10:11 SGTBEARISH prediction85.5 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
P4Prediction P4 · 25 Aug 2026, 15:22 SGTBEARISH prediction84.36000061035156 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
P3Prediction P3 · 25 Aug 2026, 17:43 SGTBEARISH prediction82.7300033569336 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
P2Prediction P2 · 26 Aug 2026, 07:53 SGTBEARISH prediction81.019997 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
1Headline 1 · 27 Aug 2026, 11:39 SGTShipping traffic through Strait of Hormuz rises slightly, data showsCompany Or Asset
2Headline 2 · 28 Aug 2026, 09:13 SGTOil on track for weekly loss even as Iran tensions simmerCompany Or Asset
P1Prediction P1 · 28 Aug 2026, 11:34 SGTBEARISH prediction83.19 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
3Headline 3 · 28 Aug 2026, 21:05 SGTMarkets hold their breath before the Fed speech as oil falls and gold waitsMacro Or Policy
4Headline 4 · 28 Aug 2026, 23:47 SGTEquities rise with 2-year yields, dollar as rate hike bets rise following Warsh speechCompany Or Asset
5Headline 5 · 29 Aug 2026, 10:04 SGTWar and sanctions weigh on Iran's economy as trade fallsCompany Or Asset
6Headline 6 · 29 Aug 2026, 10:04 SGTIran maintains its claim of control over the Strait of HormuzCompany Or Asset
7Headline 7 · 31 Aug 2026, 04:38 SGTU.S. forces strike Iranian launchers on Larak IslandCompany Or Asset
8Headline 8 · 31 Aug 2026, 06:12 SGTOil jumps more than 2% after U.S. attack on Iran's Larak IslandCompany Or Asset
9Headline 9 · 31 Aug 2026, 14:32 SGTOil prices rise and stocks fall after US hits Iranian sites in the Strait of HormuzMacro Or Policy
10Headline 10 · 02 Sept 2026, 09:11 SGTOil prices rose to their highest level in more than a month.Macro Or Policy
11Headline 11 · 02 Sept 2026, 10:28 SGTThe US military was reported to have struck two Iranian oil tankers.Macro Or Policy
12Headline 12 · 02 Sept 2026, 22:38 SGTUS oil stocks fell while fuel demand weakened.Macro Or Policy
13Headline 13 · 06 Sept 2026, 20:58 SGTOPEC+ holds October oil-output quotas steadyCompany Or Asset
Latest prediction · P1
P1

BEARISH · 83.19 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT

Published
28 Aug 2026, 11:34 SGT
Deadline
01 Sept 2026, 11:34 SGT

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.

A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.

P1 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
Headlines · 13 · oldest first
1

Shipping traffic through Strait of Hormuz rises slightly, data showsPublished · 27 Aug 2026, 11:39 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to Oil futures by a deterministic entity-name match. Saved importance: High materiality 89/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Maritime & ShippingHigh · 89/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALMay hurt CL=F
Down

Why: More shipping traffic after a truce can reduce the disruption premium embedded in crude prices.

Confidence
High
Strength
Moderate
Headline mood
Positive

What happened later20h · Saved price rose after the headline; association only · +2.10%Association only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
Energy Shipping Normalisation
Link to asset
Supply Disruption Risk Premium
Uncertainty
None Identified From Headline
Sample
Independent event
Rule
HORMUZ_TRAFFIC_NORMALISING

Original source ↗

2

Oil on track for weekly loss even as Iran tensions simmerPublished · 28 Aug 2026, 09:13 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to Oil futures by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: Medium materiality 73/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Energy & PowerMedium · 73/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALMay hurt CL=F
Down

Why: The headline reports a weekly oil loss, a direct but backward-looking pressure signal.

Confidence
High
Strength
Moderate
Headline mood
Negative

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
Oil Price Weakness
Link to asset
Reported Price Momentum
Uncertainty
None Identified From Headline
Sample
Independent event
Rule
OIL_WEEKLY_LOSS

Original source ↗

3

Markets hold their breath before the Fed speech as oil falls and gold waitsPublished · 28 Aug 2026, 21:05 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to Oil futures by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 75/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

CommoditiesHigh · 75/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALMay hurt CL=F
Down

Why: The headline reports falling oil prices while markets wait for a catalyst.

Confidence
High
Strength
Light
Headline mood
Negative

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
Cross Asset Waiting
Link to asset
Reported Price Pressure
Uncertainty
None Identified From Headline
Sample
Independent event
Rule
OIL_AND_GOLD_WAIT

Original source ↗

4

Equities rise with 2-year yields, dollar as rate hike bets rise following Warsh speechPublished · 28 Aug 2026, 23:47 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to Oil futures by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 79/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Equities / Stock MarketsHigh · 79/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALPushes both ways CL=F
Mixed

Why: Rates and the dollar can affect oil through several opposing channels, so this headline alone is not directional for crude.

Confidence
Medium
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Positive

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
Rates Repricing
Link to asset
Growth Expectations Versus Dollar
Uncertainty
None Identified From Headline
Sample
Independent event
Rule
RATE_YIELDS_DOLLAR

Original source ↗

5

War and sanctions weigh on Iran's economy as trade fallsPublished · 29 Aug 2026, 10:04 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to Oil futures by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 89/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Energy & PowerHigh · 89/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear CL=F
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Negative

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

6

Iran maintains its claim of control over the Strait of HormuzPublished · 29 Aug 2026, 10:04 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to Oil futures by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 89/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Energy & PowerHigh · 89/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear CL=F
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Duplicate coverage; not counted twice
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

7

U.S. forces strike Iranian launchers on Larak IslandPublished · 31 Aug 2026, 04:38 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to Oil futures by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 75/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Defence & SecurityHigh · 75/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear CL=F
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

8

Oil jumps more than 2% after U.S. attack on Iran's Larak IslandPublished · 31 Aug 2026, 06:12 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to Oil futures by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: Medium materiality 73/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Energy & PowerMedium · 73/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear CL=F
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · Saved price rose after the headline; association only · +0.76%Association only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

9

Oil prices rise and stocks fall after US hits Iranian sites in the Strait of HormuzPublished · 31 Aug 2026, 14:32 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to Oil futures by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 80/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Equities / Stock MarketsHigh · 80/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALMay hurt CL=F
Down

Why: The headline reports a weekly oil loss, a direct but backward-looking pressure signal.

Confidence
High
Strength
Moderate
Headline mood
Mixed

What happened later20h · Saved price rose after the headline; association only · +1.24%Association only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
Oil Price Weakness
Link to asset
Reported Price Momentum
Uncertainty
None Identified From Headline
Sample
Independent event
Rule
OIL_WEEKLY_LOSS

Original source ↗

10

Oil prices rose to their highest level in more than a month.Published · 02 Sept 2026, 09:11 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to Oil futures by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 82/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

C121 Source-timed Current EventsHigh · 82/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear CL=F
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Positive

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

11

The US military was reported to have struck two Iranian oil tankers.Published · 02 Sept 2026, 10:28 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to Oil futures by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 86/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

C121 Source-timed Current EventsHigh · 86/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear CL=F
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · Saved price fell after the headline; association only · -0.07%Association only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

12

US oil stocks fell while fuel demand weakened.Published · 02 Sept 2026, 22:38 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to Oil futures by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 82/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

C121 Source-timed Current EventsHigh · 82/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear CL=F
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Negative

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

13

OPEC+ holds October oil-output quotas steadyPublished · 06 Sept 2026, 20:58 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to Oil futures by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: unrated materiality.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Energy & PowerUnratedSource time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear CL=F
No direction

Why: OPEC+ left October production policy unchanged while disrupted Hormuz exports continued to limit the alliance’s influence over oil prices. The distinction between production quotas and barrels physically reaching buyers matters for energy costs, shipping and inflation. A quota freeze does not by itself establish that fuel availability or prices will stabilise.

Confidence
Not Scored
Strength
Not Scored
Headline mood
Unclear

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
Company Or Asset
Link to asset
No Causal Return Claim
Uncertainty
The Report Describes A Prospective Review Of Production Capacity And 2027 Baselines. Disruption At The Export Route Can Outweigh Announced Quotas; The Article Provides No Basis For A New Directional Oil-price Call.
Sample
Independent event
Rule
C171_NO_DIRECTION_INFERRED_FROM_ENTITY_MATCH

Original source ↗
Prediction history · 8 earlier · newest first
1. P2
  
  BEARISH · 81.019997 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
  
  Published
  26 Aug 2026, 07:53 SGT
  Deadline
  27 Aug 2026, 03:53 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P2 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
2. P3
  
  BEARISH · 82.7300033569336 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
  
  Published
  25 Aug 2026, 17:43 SGT
  Deadline
  26 Aug 2026, 13:43 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P3 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
3. P4
  
  BEARISH · 84.36000061035156 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
  
  Published
  25 Aug 2026, 15:22 SGT
  Deadline
  26 Aug 2026, 11:22 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P4 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
4. P5
  
  BEARISH · 85.5 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
  
  Published
  25 Aug 2026, 10:11 SGT
  Deadline
  26 Aug 2026, 06:11 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P5 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
5. P6
  
  BULLISH · 86.66000366210938 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
  
  Published
  21 Aug 2026, 01:53 SGT
  Deadline
  21 Aug 2026, 21:53 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P6 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
6. P7
  
  BULLISH · 87.54000091552734 USDPROOF RECEIPT · MISS (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
  
  Published
  20 Aug 2026, 20:41 SGT
  Deadline
  21 Aug 2026, 16:41 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: immutable proof receipt MISS. This is a traceable read-only result, not a Founder stamp. P7 remains at its original publication time.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P7 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
7. P8
  
  BULLISH · 86.440002441 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
  
  Published
  20 Aug 2026, 17:22 SGT
  Deadline
  21 Aug 2026, 13:22 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P8 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
8. P9
  
  BULLISH · 85.059997559 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
  
  Published
  20 Aug 2026, 15:21 SGT
  Deadline
  21 Aug 2026, 11:21 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P9 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
Graph LearningHow news has moved Oil futures beforeOpen the complete asset-specific memory
OTR GRAPH LEARNING
What OTR sees for Oil futures
An extra check. It does not replace the other evidence.

physical supply, output policy, shipping, inventories and demand · Rais and Bryce wear energy-market and field analysts.

What this is: A chart symbol commonly used for the nearest actively traded NYMEX West Texas Intermediate crude-oil futures contract. The underlying CL contract represents 1,000 barrels of WTI and expires, so a continuous chart rolls from one delivery month to the next.
Headlines that may cause the price of this investible to go up
A producer outage, war or shipping blockage removes barrels from the market
Official inventory data show a larger-than-expected crude draw
Producers cut output or restore disrupted output more slowly than expected
Headlines that may cause the price of this investible to go down
Official inventories build sharply
Blocked routes reopen or shut-in production returns faster than expected
Demand forecasts are cut because of weaker travel, industry or growth
What OTR checks
EIA weekly commercial crude and Cushing stocks
EIA refinery inputs and product supplied
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook supply/demand revisions
CL front spread and curve shape
39 saved news time checks22 completed12 rose9 fell1 roughly flat

ASSET-SPECIFIC NEWS MEMORYWhat the news may mean here
0 supportive, 4 pressuring and 8 mixed or unclear asset-specific news signals.
12 linked headlines classified for this investible; 11 independent event samples. 3 of 5 clear checked moves matched the research direction.
Can OTR use this for a prediction yet?Not for extra weight yet. The label must be frozen before the outcome and repeat in forward checks first.
Open the full Graph Learning analysis
Past
13 saved story relationships, 22 eligible measured windows. New story bindings add no measured outcome.
Now
OPEC+ left October production policy unchanged while disrupted Hormuz exports continued to limit the alliance’s influence over oil prices. The distinction between production quotas and barrels physically reaching buyers matters for energy costs, shipping and inflation. A quota freeze does not by itself establish that fuel availability or prices will stabilise. The report describes a prospective review of production capacity and 2027 baselines. Disruption at the export route can outweigh announced quotas; the article provides no basis for a new directional oil-price call.
Next prediction
Future calls require their own fresh entry and frozen rules. Historical context never substitutes for missing outcome evidence.
When this can mislead
Geopolitical risk can dominate a normal inventory signal.; Inventory changes can reflect imports, exports or refinery maintenance rather than final demand.; CL=F is a vendor-style continuous symbol; its exact roll method may differ from holding one named CME contract.; A stronger or weaker U.S. dollar can change the dollar oil price without changing physical barrels.
Saved headline-move memory
US oil stocks fell while fuel demand weakened.02 Sept 2026, 22:38 SGT
1h · rose 0.60%4h · rose 0.72%20h · not checked yet
The US military was reported to have struck two Iranian oil tankers.02 Sept 2026, 10:28 SGT
1h · fell 0.19%4h · rose 0.10%20h · fell 0.07%
Oil prices rose to their highest level in more than a month.02 Sept 2026, 09:11 SGT
1h · fell 0.78%4h · fell 1.18%20h · not checked yet
Oil prices rise and stocks fall after US hits Iranian sites in the Strait of Hormuz31 Aug 2026, 14:32 SGT
1h · fell 0.96%4h · rose 0.76%20h · rose 1.24%
Oil jumps more than 2% after U.S. attack on Iran's Larak Island31 Aug 2026, 06:12 SGT
1h · fell 0.22%4h · rose 0.47%20h · rose 0.76%
U.S. forces strike Iranian launchers on Larak Island31 Aug 2026, 04:38 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Iran maintains its claim of control over the Strait of Hormuz29 Aug 2026, 10:04 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
War and sanctions weigh on Iran's economy as trade falls29 Aug 2026, 10:04 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Equities rise with 2-year yields, dollar as rate hike bets rise following Warsh speech28 Aug 2026, 23:47 SGT
1h · rose 0.37%4h · rose 0.34%20h · not checked yet
Markets hold their breath before the Fed speech as oil falls and gold waits28 Aug 2026, 21:05 SGT
1h · rose 0.06%4h · rose 1.31%20h · not checked yet
Oil on track for weekly loss even as Iran tensions simmer28 Aug 2026, 09:13 SGT
1h · fell 0.12%4h · fell 0.16%20h · not checked yet
Shipping traffic through Strait of Hormuz rises slightly, data shows27 Aug 2026, 11:39 SGT
1h · was roughly flat 0.04%4h · fell 0.78%20h · rose 2.10%
OPEC+ holds October oil-output quotas steady06 Sept 2026, 20:58 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Clue, not proof: timing is a clue, never proof. A price move after a headline does not prove the headline caused it. OTR uses a pattern only after it repeats and still holds up against the wider market.

One timeline of saved evidence

Publication, issuance, review deadlines and actual observations retain their distinct dates.

Open 32 dated moments

Recorded time	Moment	Evidence
2026-08-20T07:21:23.412Z	Prediction	Original rise prediction
2026-08-20T09:22:15.491Z	Prediction	Original rise prediction
2026-08-20T12:41:42.645Z	Prediction	Original rise prediction
2026-08-20T17:53:35.703Z	Prediction	Original rise prediction
2026-08-21T03:21:23.412Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-08-21T05:22:15.491Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-08-21T08:41:42.645Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-08-21T13:53:35.703Z	Review deadline	Recorded outcome: Right
2026-08-25T02:11:22.534Z	Prediction	Original fall prediction
2026-08-25T07:22:46.874Z	Prediction	Original fall prediction
2026-08-25T09:43:20.079Z	Prediction	Original fall prediction
2026-08-25T22:11:22.534Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-08-25T23:53:00.000Z	Prediction	Original fall prediction
2026-08-26T03:22:46.874Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-08-26T05:43:20.079Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-08-26T19:53:00.000Z	Review deadline	Recorded outcome: Wrong
2026-08-27T03:39:00.000Z	Story	Shipping traffic through Strait of Hormuz rises slightly, data shows
2026-08-28T01:13:00.000Z	Story	Oil on track for weekly loss even as Iran tensions simmer
2026-08-28T03:34:58.951Z	Prediction	Original fall prediction
2026-08-28T13:05:00.000Z	Story	Markets hold their breath before the Fed speech as oil falls and gold waits
2026-08-28T15:47:32.637Z	Story	Equities rise with 2-year yields, dollar as rate hike bets rise following Warsh speech
2026-08-29T02:04:15.898Z	Story	War and sanctions weigh on Iran's economy as trade falls
2026-08-29T02:04:15.898Z	Story	Iran maintains its claim of control over the Strait of Hormuz
2026-08-30T20:38:01.072Z	Story	U.S. forces strike Iranian launchers on Larak Island
2026-08-30T22:12:07.112Z	Story	Oil jumps more than 2% after U.S. attack on Iran's Larak Island
2026-08-31T06:32:16.000Z	Story	Oil prices rise and stocks fall after US hits Iranian sites in the Strait of Hormuz
2026-09-01T03:34:58.951Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-09-02T01:11:00.000Z	Story	Oil prices rose to their highest level in more than a month.
2026-09-02T02:28:50.000Z	Story	The US military was reported to have struck two Iranian oil tankers.
2026-09-02T14:38:00.000Z	Story	US oil stocks fell while fuel demand weakened.
2026-09-04T05:01:28.367Z	Original result receipt recorded	CL=F · UNVERIFIABLE under original rules
2026-09-06T12:58:06.000Z	Source story	OPEC+ holds October oil-output quotas steady

Oil futures: predictions, prices and linked headlines

What happened after saved stories about Oil futures

13 saved story matches

56 out of 100 ready for comparison

Rose in 75% of its 4 complete twenty-hour checks

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Latest prediction · P1

Headlines · 13 · oldest first

Prediction history · 8 earlier · newest first

Headlines that may cause the price of this investible to go up

Headlines that may cause the price of this investible to go down

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Saved headline-move memory

One timeline of saved evidence