GRAPH · NQ=F

Nasdaq-100 futures: predictions, prices and linked headlines

This page keeps every Nasdaq-100 futures prediction and source-timed headline together. The original recorded result remains separate from later price evidence.

Line = price · P = prediction published · number = headline published.

← See all investibles

Investibles: 1
Predictions: 8
Linked headlines: 2
Timed events: 10

7 September 2026 graph update: 6 new story markers and 1 prediction points were added for this edition. The preserved history below keeps its original dates.

How OTR judges a headline

OTR asks what the event may do to this investible—not whether the words sound happy or scary. May help, may hurt, mixed or unclear is shown beside each linked headline. Later prices test the idea; timing alone never proves cause.

WHAT HAPPENED NEXT

What happened after saved stories about Nasdaq-100 futures

2 saved story matches

4 of 6 possible later-price checks are available.

67 out of 100 ready for comparison

This measures how many required prices were saved. It does not measure prediction skill.

No repeated twenty-hour direction can be shown yet

This only describes the past. It does not predict the next move.

Showing all 2 saved events. Open each row for the actual price times, source and earlier comparisons.

Saved story

Published

After 1 hour

After 4 hours

After 20 hours

Earlier comparisons and evidence

Equities rise with 2-year yields, dollar as rate hike bets rise following Warsh speech

2026-08-28 23:47:32.637 Singapore time

-0.33%

-0.48%

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	29633.75 2026-08-28T15:50:00.000Z	29536.5 2026-08-28T16:50:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
4 hours	29633.75 2026-08-28T15:50:00.000Z	29491 2026-08-28T19:50:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to Nasdaq-100 futures.

Supporting reports

Equities rise with 2-year yields, dollar as rate hike bets rise following Warsh speech

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
The Fed paper concerns broad equity returns, not a guaranteed NQ direction.
Continuous-vendor symbols are not exchange-listed contracts and can use different roll rules.
Index membership and weights change over time.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-28T23:47:32.637+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

How sure is OTR?
Insufficient evidenceNo confidence number is shown because source quality, independent reports, freshness, opposing evidence, earlier comparisons, time accuracy are not fully measured.

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Wall Street ends lower after Warsh reaffirms inflation fight

2026-08-28 18:14:56.037 Singapore time

+0.04%

-0.23%

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	29604 2026-08-28T10:15:00.000Z	29614.5 2026-08-28T11:15:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
4 hours	29604 2026-08-28T10:15:00.000Z	29534.75 2026-08-28T14:15:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to Nasdaq-100 futures.

Supporting reports

Wall Street ends lower after Warsh reaffirms inflation fight

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
The Fed paper concerns broad equity returns, not a guaranteed NQ direction.
Continuous-vendor symbols are not exchange-listed contracts and can use different roll rules.
Index membership and weights change over time.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-28T18:14:56.037+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

How to read this: a later price shows what followed, not what caused the move. Comparisons use the same market and kind of news, with results already available before this story appeared.

01
Nasdaq-100 futures
NQ=F · index_future · 8 prediction records
Evidence
Publication markers · exact horizontal time

Loading public price line and publication markers…

P1 Prediction published1 Headline publishedP1 entry priceGraph badges open evidence. Timeline items jump to matching cards.

Chart readoutP1 is BULLISH ↑. Visible result record: NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT. 10 of 10 timed publication events are placed from left to right.
Latest public price · never a ledger grade

Last public price
Loading public price data…
From P1 entry
Entry 29697.75 USD
Latest call
BULLISH ↑
Publication markers
10 of 10 timed
Publication timelineOldest → newest
Left to right matches the graph. Select an event to jump to its full card.

P8Prediction P8 · 20 Aug 2026, 15:21 SGTBEARISH prediction29665.5 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
P7Prediction P7 · 20 Aug 2026, 17:22 SGTBEARISH prediction29527.75 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
P6Prediction P6 · 20 Aug 2026, 20:41 SGTBEARISH prediction29261.25 USD · PROOF RECEIPT · MISS (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
P5Prediction P5 · 21 Aug 2026, 01:53 SGTBEARISH prediction29286.75 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
P4Prediction P4 · 25 Aug 2026, 10:11 SGTBEARISH prediction29141 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
P3Prediction P3 · 25 Aug 2026, 15:22 SGTBEARISH prediction29258.25 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
P2Prediction P2 · 25 Aug 2026, 17:43 SGTBULLISH prediction29329 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
P1Prediction P1 · 28 Aug 2026, 11:34 SGTBULLISH prediction29697.75 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
1Headline 1 · 28 Aug 2026, 18:14 SGTWall Street ends lower after Warsh reaffirms inflation fightMacro Or Policy
2Headline 2 · 28 Aug 2026, 23:47 SGTEquities rise with 2-year yields, dollar as rate hike bets rise following Warsh speechCompany Or Asset
Latest prediction · P1
P1

BULLISH · 29697.75 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT

Published
28 Aug 2026, 11:34 SGT
Deadline
01 Sept 2026, 11:34 SGT

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.

A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.

P1 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
Headlines · 2 · oldest first
1

Wall Street ends lower after Warsh reaffirms inflation fightPublished · 28 Aug 2026, 18:14 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to Nasdaq-100 futures by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 89/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Equities / Stock MarketsHigh · 89/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear NQ=F
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

2

Equities rise with 2-year yields, dollar as rate hike bets rise following Warsh speechPublished · 28 Aug 2026, 23:47 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to Nasdaq-100 futures by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 79/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Equities / Stock MarketsHigh · 79/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALMay hurt NQ=F
Down

Why: Higher yields can reduce the present value investors assign to long-duration growth shares.

Confidence
High
Strength
Moderate
Headline mood
Positive

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
Rates Repricing
Link to asset
Long Duration Equity Discount Rate
Uncertainty
None Identified From Headline
Sample
Independent event
Rule
RATE_YIELDS_DOLLAR

Original source ↗
Prediction history · 7 earlier · newest first
1. P2
  
  BULLISH · 29329 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
  
  Published
  25 Aug 2026, 17:43 SGT
  Deadline
  26 Aug 2026, 13:43 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P2 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
2. P3
  
  BEARISH · 29258.25 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
  
  Published
  25 Aug 2026, 15:22 SGT
  Deadline
  26 Aug 2026, 11:22 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P3 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
3. P4
  
  BEARISH · 29141 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
  
  Published
  25 Aug 2026, 10:11 SGT
  Deadline
  26 Aug 2026, 06:11 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P4 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
4. P5
  
  BEARISH · 29286.75 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
  
  Published
  21 Aug 2026, 01:53 SGT
  Deadline
  21 Aug 2026, 21:53 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P5 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
5. P6
  
  BEARISH · 29261.25 USDPROOF RECEIPT · MISS (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
  
  Published
  20 Aug 2026, 20:41 SGT
  Deadline
  21 Aug 2026, 16:41 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: immutable proof receipt MISS. This is a traceable read-only result, not a Founder stamp. P6 remains at its original publication time.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P6 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
6. P7
  
  BEARISH · 29527.75 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
  
  Published
  20 Aug 2026, 17:22 SGT
  Deadline
  21 Aug 2026, 13:22 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P7 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
7. P8
  
  BEARISH · 29665.5 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
  
  Published
  20 Aug 2026, 15:21 SGT
  Deadline
  21 Aug 2026, 11:21 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P8 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
Graph LearningHow news has moved Nasdaq-100 futures beforeOpen the complete asset-specific memory
OTR GRAPH LEARNING
What OTR sees for Nasdaq-100 futures
An extra check. It does not replace the other evidence.

What this is: A continuous-chart symbol commonly used for E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures. One CME NQ contract is valued at $20 times the Nasdaq-100 Index and expires quarterly, so the chart must roll between contracts.
Headlines that may cause the price of this investible to go up
Large Nasdaq-100 companies raise earnings or cash-flow expectations
Inflation or Fed news lowers expected interest rates without signalling recession
AI, cloud or semiconductor demand broadens across major members
Headlines that may cause the price of this investible to go down
The Fed is more restrictive than expected or long yields jump
A heavyweight issues weak guidance
AI capital spending rises without matching revenue or margins
What OTR checks
Nasdaq-100 current constituent weights
top-constituent earnings and guidance
FOMC surprises and real yields
market breadth
6 saved news time checks4 completed0 rose3 fell1 roughly flat

ASSET-SPECIFIC NEWS MEMORYWhat the news may mean here
0 supportive, 1 pressuring and 1 mixed or unclear asset-specific news signals.
2 linked headlines classified for this investible; 2 independent event samples. There is not yet a clear checked move suitable for a match test.
Can OTR use this for a prediction yet?Not for extra weight yet. The label must be frozen before the outcome and repeat in forward checks first.
Open the full Graph Learning analysis
Past
2 saved story relationships, 4 eligible measured windows. New story bindings add no measured outcome.
Now
News that may help includes Large Nasdaq-100 companies raise earnings or cash-flow expectations; Inflation or Fed news lowers expected interest rates without signalling recession. News that may hurt includes The Fed is more restrictive than expected or long yields jump; A heavyweight issues weak guidance. OTR also watches Nasdaq-100 current constituent weights, top-constituent earnings and guidance, FOMC surprises and real yields.
Next prediction
Future calls require their own fresh entry and frozen rules. Historical context never substitutes for missing outcome evidence.
When this can mislead
NQ=F continuous data can contain roll and basis effects.; Futures trade nearly around the clock, so moves can occur before the cash market opens.; A rate cut can be bearish if it reveals severe economic weakness.; Index concentration can make broad technology headlines misleading.
Saved headline-move memory
Equities rise with 2-year yields, dollar as rate hike bets rise following Warsh speech28 Aug 2026, 23:47 SGT
1h · fell 0.33%4h · fell 0.48%20h · not checked yet
Wall Street ends lower after Warsh reaffirms inflation fight28 Aug 2026, 18:14 SGT
1h · was roughly flat 0.04%4h · fell 0.23%20h · not checked yet
Clue, not proof: timing is a clue, never proof. A price move after a headline does not prove the headline caused it. OTR uses a pattern only after it repeats and still holds up against the wider market.

One timeline of saved evidence

Publication, issuance, review deadlines and actual observations retain their distinct dates.

Open 19 dated moments

Recorded time	Moment	Evidence
2026-08-20T07:21:23.412Z	Prediction	Original fall prediction
2026-08-20T09:22:15.491Z	Prediction	Original fall prediction
2026-08-20T12:41:42.645Z	Prediction	Original fall prediction
2026-08-20T17:53:35.703Z	Prediction	Original fall prediction
2026-08-21T03:21:23.412Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-08-21T05:22:15.491Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-08-21T08:41:42.645Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-08-21T13:53:35.703Z	Review deadline	Recorded outcome: Wrong
2026-08-25T02:11:22.534Z	Prediction	Original fall prediction
2026-08-25T07:22:46.874Z	Prediction	Original fall prediction
2026-08-25T09:43:20.079Z	Prediction	Original rise prediction
2026-08-25T22:11:22.534Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-08-26T03:22:46.874Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-08-26T05:43:20.079Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-08-28T03:34:58.951Z	Prediction	Original rise prediction
2026-08-28T10:14:56.037Z	Story	Wall Street ends lower after Warsh reaffirms inflation fight
2026-08-28T15:47:32.637Z	Story	Equities rise with 2-year yields, dollar as rate hike bets rise following Warsh speech
2026-09-01T03:34:58.951Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-09-04T05:01:28.367Z	Original result receipt recorded	NQ=F · UNVERIFIABLE under original rules

Nasdaq-100 futures: predictions, prices and linked headlines

What happened after saved stories about Nasdaq-100 futures

2 saved story matches

67 out of 100 ready for comparison

No repeated twenty-hour direction can be shown yet

Supporting reports

What argues against it

Where this appears

Supporting reports

What argues against it

Where this appears

Latest prediction · P1

Headlines · 2 · oldest first

Prediction history · 7 earlier · newest first

Headlines that may cause the price of this investible to go up

Headlines that may cause the price of this investible to go down

What OTR checks

Saved headline-move memory

One timeline of saved evidence