GRAPH · GC=F

Gold futures: predictions, prices and linked headlines

This page keeps every Gold futures prediction and source-timed headline together. The original recorded result remains separate from later price evidence.

Line = price · P = prediction published · number = headline published.

← See all investibles

Investibles: 1
Predictions: 9
Linked headlines: 14
Timed events: 23

7 September 2026 graph update: 6 new story markers and 1 prediction points were added for this edition. The preserved history below keeps its original dates.

How OTR judges a headline

OTR asks what the event may do to this investible—not whether the words sound happy or scary. May help, may hurt, mixed or unclear is shown beside each linked headline. Later prices test the idea; timing alone never proves cause.

WHAT HAPPENED NEXT

What happened after saved stories about Gold futures

14 saved story matches

23 of 42 possible later-price checks are available.

55 out of 100 ready for comparison

This measures how many required prices were saved. It does not measure prediction skill.

Rose in 100% of its 4 complete twenty-hour checks

This only describes the past. It does not predict the next move.

Showing all 14 saved events. Open each row for the actual price times, source and earlier comparisons.

Saved story

Published

After 1 hour

After 4 hours

After 20 hours

Earlier comparisons and evidence

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%.

2026-09-02 21:45:00 Singapore time

+0.15%

-0.06%

+1.14%

1 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

Gold hits near two-week low on Fed chief's hawkish stance · 2026-08-31T10:28:00.000+08:00 · Rose (0.59%)

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	4425.7001953125 2026-09-02T13:45:00.000Z	4432.5 2026-09-02T14:45:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
4 hours	4425.7001953125 2026-09-02T13:45:00.000Z	4422.89990234375 2026-09-02T17:45:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
20 hours	4425.7001953125 2026-09-02T13:45:00.000Z	4476.2001953125 2026-09-03T09:45:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to Gold futures.

Supporting reports

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%.

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
The IMF historical discussion is multi-factor and not a same-window causal event study.
A futures graph requires contract, expiry, continuous-series, and roll-method metadata before learning from price changes.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-09-02T21:45:00+08:00
Similar earlier cases: 1 similar earlier case

How sure is OTR?
Insufficient evidenceNo confidence number is shown because source quality, independent reports, freshness, opposing evidence, earlier comparisons, time accuracy are not fully measured.

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

A global bond sell-off deepened amid energy-led inflation and borrowing-cost fears.

2026-09-02 16:54:00 Singapore time

-0.11%

+0.47%

+2.75%

1 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

Gold hits near two-week low on Fed chief's hawkish stance · 2026-08-31T10:28:00.000+08:00 · Rose (0.59%)

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	4361.10009765625 2026-09-02T08:55:00.000Z	4356.10009765625 2026-09-02T09:55:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
4 hours	4361.10009765625 2026-09-02T08:55:00.000Z	4381.60009765625 2026-09-02T12:55:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
20 hours	4361.10009765625 2026-09-02T08:55:00.000Z	4481 2026-09-03T04:55:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to Gold futures.

Supporting reports

A global bond sell-off deepened amid energy-led inflation and borrowing-cost fears.

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
The IMF historical discussion is multi-factor and not a same-window causal event study.
A futures graph requires contract, expiry, continuous-series, and roll-method metadata before learning from price changes.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-09-02T16:54:00+08:00
Similar earlier cases: 1 similar earlier case

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

New Zealand raised its policy rate as fuel pressure lifted inflation.

2026-09-02 10:00:00 Singapore time

+0.28%

+0.67%

+2.27%

1 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

Gold hits near two-week low on Fed chief's hawkish stance · 2026-08-31T10:28:00.000+08:00 · Rose (0.59%)

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	4337.7998046875 2026-09-02T02:00:00.000Z	4350 2026-09-02T03:00:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
4 hours	4337.7998046875 2026-09-02T02:00:00.000Z	4366.7998046875 2026-09-02T06:00:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
20 hours	4337.7998046875 2026-09-02T02:00:00.000Z	4436.39990234375 2026-09-02T22:00:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to Gold futures.

Supporting reports

New Zealand raised its policy rate as fuel pressure lifted inflation.

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
The IMF historical discussion is multi-factor and not a same-window causal event study.
A futures graph requires contract, expiry, continuous-series, and roll-method metadata before learning from price changes.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-09-02T10:00:00+08:00
Similar earlier cases: 1 similar earlier case

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Gold hits near two-week low on Fed chief's hawkish stance

2026-08-31 10:28:00.000 Singapore time

+0.11%

+0.30%

+0.59%

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	4472.10009765625 2026-08-31T02:30:00.000Z	4477.2001953125 2026-08-31T03:30:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
4 hours	4472.10009765625 2026-08-31T02:30:00.000Z	4485.7001953125 2026-08-31T06:30:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
20 hours	4472.10009765625 2026-08-31T02:30:00.000Z	4498.5 2026-08-31T22:30:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to Gold futures.

Supporting reports

Gold hits near two-week low on Fed chief's hawkish stance

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
The IMF historical discussion is multi-factor and not a same-window causal event study.
A futures graph requires contract, expiry, continuous-series, and roll-method metadata before learning from price changes.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-31T10:28:00.000+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Inflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meeting

2026-08-29 21:59:45.000 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to Gold futures.

Supporting reports

Inflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meeting

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
The IMF historical discussion is multi-factor and not a same-window causal event study.
A futures graph requires contract, expiry, continuous-series, and roll-method metadata before learning from price changes.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-29T21:59:45.000+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Warsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meeting

2026-08-29 21:59:45.000 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to Gold futures.

Supporting reports

Warsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meeting

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
The IMF historical discussion is multi-factor and not a same-window causal event study.
A futures graph requires contract, expiry, continuous-series, and roll-method metadata before learning from price changes.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-29T21:59:45.000+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Rate-hike odds jump; gold and silver fall sharply

2026-08-29 21:00:00.000 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to Gold futures.

Supporting reports

Rate-hike odds jump; gold and silver fall sharply

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
The IMF historical discussion is multi-factor and not a same-window causal event study.
A futures graph requires contract, expiry, continuous-series, and roll-method metadata before learning from price changes.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-29T21:00:00.000+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Warsh turns hawkish; gold and silver plunge

2026-08-29 19:41:15.000 Singapore time

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to Gold futures.

Supporting reports

Warsh turns hawkish; gold and silver plunge

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
The IMF historical discussion is multi-factor and not a same-window causal event study.
A futures graph requires contract, expiry, continuous-series, and roll-method metadata before learning from price changes.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-29T19:41:15.000+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Gold falls as rate-rise expectations increase

2026-08-29 03:09:00.000 Singapore time

-0.04%

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	4511.7001953125 2026-08-28T19:10:00.000Z	4510 2026-08-28T20:10:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
4 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to Gold futures.

Supporting reports

Gold falls as rate-rise expectations increase

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
The IMF historical discussion is multi-factor and not a same-window causal event study.
A futures graph requires contract, expiry, continuous-series, and roll-method metadata before learning from price changes.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-29T03:09:00.000+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Equities rise with 2-year yields, dollar as rate hike bets rise following Warsh speech

2026-08-28 23:47:32.637 Singapore time

-1.21%

-1.77%

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	4588 2026-08-28T15:50:00.000Z	4532.39990234375 2026-08-28T16:50:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
4 hours	4588 2026-08-28T15:50:00.000Z	4506.7998046875 2026-08-28T19:50:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to Gold futures.

Supporting reports

Equities rise with 2-year yields, dollar as rate hike bets rise following Warsh speech

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
The IMF historical discussion is multi-factor and not a same-window causal event study.
A futures graph requires contract, expiry, continuous-series, and roll-method metadata before learning from price changes.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-28T23:47:32.637+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Markets hold their breath before the Fed speech as oil falls and gold waits

2026-08-28 21:05:00.000 Singapore time

-0.45%

-2.70%

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	4651.7998046875 2026-08-28T13:05:00.000Z	4630.7001953125 2026-08-28T14:05:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
4 hours	4651.7998046875 2026-08-28T13:05:00.000Z	4526.39990234375 2026-08-28T17:05:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to Gold futures.

Supporting reports

Markets hold their breath before the Fed speech as oil falls and gold waits

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
The IMF historical discussion is multi-factor and not a same-window causal event study.
A futures graph requires contract, expiry, continuous-series, and roll-method metadata before learning from price changes.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-28T21:05:00.000+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Indonesia Gold Price Today: Gold Falls, According to FXStreet Data

2026-08-28 13:44:42.918 Singapore time

+0.34%

+0.71%

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	4624.89990234375 2026-08-28T05:45:00.000Z	4640.7998046875 2026-08-28T06:45:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
4 hours	4624.89990234375 2026-08-28T05:45:00.000Z	4657.60009765625 2026-08-28T09:45:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to Gold futures.

Supporting reports

Indonesia Gold Price Today: Gold Falls, According to FXStreet Data

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
The IMF historical discussion is multi-factor and not a same-window causal event study.
A futures graph requires contract, expiry, continuous-series, and roll-method metadata before learning from price changes.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-28T13:44:42.918+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Gold slips as Fed chief Warsh's Jackson Hole speech looms

2026-08-28 10:19:00.000 Singapore time

+0.11%

+0.02%

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	4634.10009765625 2026-08-28T02:20:00.000Z	4639.2998046875 2026-08-28T03:20:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
4 hours	4634.10009765625 2026-08-28T02:20:00.000Z	4635 2026-08-28T06:20:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to Gold futures.

Supporting reports

Gold slips as Fed chief Warsh's Jackson Hole speech looms

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
The IMF historical discussion is multi-factor and not a same-window causal event study.
A futures graph requires contract, expiry, continuous-series, and roll-method metadata before learning from price changes.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-28T10:19:00.000+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

Stocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold up

2026-08-28 09:56:49.203 Singapore time

+0.22%

-0.06%

Not measured

0 earlier completed comparisons · open prices and evidence

Fewer than three earlier complete 20-hour checks are available, so no repeated move is claimed.

No earlier completed comparison is attached.

After the story	Starting price and saved time	Later price and saved time	Time accuracy	Price source
1 hour	4628.60009765625 2026-08-28T02:00:00.000Z	4638.7001953125 2026-08-28T03:00:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
4 hours	4628.60009765625 2026-08-28T02:00:00.000Z	4625.7001953125 2026-08-28T06:00:00.000Z	First eligible five-minute bar opening price at or after each check	Price source
20 hours	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not recorded Time not recorded	Not available in the saved evidence	Price source not recorded

Open the story evidence

Claim: This saved story was linked to Gold futures.

Supporting reports

Stocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold up

What argues against it

This shows what happened after the story. It does not prove the story caused the move.
The IMF historical discussion is multi-factor and not a same-window causal event study.
A futures graph requires contract, expiry, continuous-series, and roll-method metadata before learning from price changes.

Where the reports came from: Not recorded
Languages: Not recorded
How recent: 2026-08-28T09:56:49.203+08:00
Similar earlier cases: Not measured

The six measured checks are multiplied together. This evidence score is not the chance a prediction will be right.

Source quality: Not fully measured.
Independent reports: Not fully measured.
Freshness: Not fully measured.
Opposing evidence: Not fully measured.
Earlier comparisons: Not fully measured.
Time accuracy: Not fully measured.

Where this appears

Markets and charts

How to read this: a later price shows what followed, not what caused the move. Comparisons use the same market and kind of news, with results already available before this story appeared.

01
Gold futures
GC=F · metal_future · 9 prediction records
Evidence
Publication markers · exact horizontal time

Loading public price line and publication markers…

P1 Prediction published1 Headline publishedP1 entry priceGraph badges open evidence. Timeline items jump to matching cards.

Chart readoutP1 is BEARISH ↓. Visible result record: NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT. 23 of 23 timed publication events are placed from left to right.
Latest public price · never a ledger grade

Last public price
Loading public price data…
From P1 entry
Entry 4641.9 USD
Latest call
BEARISH ↓
Publication markers
23 of 23 timed
Publication timelineOldest → newest
Left to right matches the graph. Select an event to jump to its full card.

P9Prediction P9 · 20 Aug 2026, 15:21 SGTBULLISH prediction4546.600097656 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
P8Prediction P8 · 20 Aug 2026, 17:22 SGTBULLISH prediction4548.399902344 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
P7Prediction P7 · 20 Aug 2026, 20:41 SGTBULLISH prediction4510.2998046875 USD · PROOF RECEIPT · HIT (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
P6Prediction P6 · 21 Aug 2026, 01:53 SGTBULLISH prediction4573.7998046875 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
P5Prediction P5 · 25 Aug 2026, 10:11 SGTBULLISH prediction4717.7998046875 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
P4Prediction P4 · 25 Aug 2026, 15:22 SGTBULLISH prediction4697.2001953125 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
P3Prediction P3 · 25 Aug 2026, 17:43 SGTBULLISH prediction4682.7998046875 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
P2Prediction P2 · 26 Aug 2026, 07:53 SGTBULLISH prediction4713.600098 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
1Headline 1 · 28 Aug 2026, 09:56 SGTStocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold upCompany Or Asset
2Headline 2 · 28 Aug 2026, 10:19 SGTGold slips as Fed chief Warsh's Jackson Hole speech loomsMacro Or Policy
P1Prediction P1 · 28 Aug 2026, 11:34 SGTBEARISH prediction4641.9 USD · NO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
3Headline 3 · 28 Aug 2026, 13:44 SGTIndonesia Gold Price Today: Gold Falls, According to FXStreet DataCompany Or Asset
4Headline 4 · 28 Aug 2026, 21:05 SGTMarkets hold their breath before the Fed speech as oil falls and gold waitsMacro Or Policy
5Headline 5 · 28 Aug 2026, 23:47 SGTEquities rise with 2-year yields, dollar as rate hike bets rise following Warsh speechCompany Or Asset
6Headline 6 · 29 Aug 2026, 03:09 SGTGold falls as rate-rise expectations increaseCompany Or Asset
7Headline 7 · 29 Aug 2026, 19:41 SGTWarsh turns hawkish; gold and silver plungeCompany Or Asset
8Headline 8 · 29 Aug 2026, 21:00 SGTRate-hike odds jump; gold and silver fall sharplyCompany Or Asset
9Headline 9 · 29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGTInflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meetingMacro Or Policy
10Headline 10 · 29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGTWarsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meetingMacro Or Policy
11Headline 11 · 31 Aug 2026, 10:28 SGTGold hits near two-week low on Fed chief's hawkish stanceMacro Or Policy
12Headline 12 · 02 Sept 2026, 10:00 SGTNew Zealand raised its policy rate as fuel pressure lifted inflation.Macro Or Policy
13Headline 13 · 02 Sept 2026, 16:54 SGTA global bond sell-off deepened amid energy-led inflation and borrowing-cost fears.Macro Or Policy
14Headline 14 · 02 Sept 2026, 21:45 SGTThe Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%.Macro Or Policy
Latest prediction · P1
P1

BEARISH · 4641.9 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT

Published
28 Aug 2026, 11:34 SGT
Deadline
01 Sept 2026, 11:34 SGT

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.

A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.

P1 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
Headlines · 14 · oldest first
1

Stocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold upPublished · 28 Aug 2026, 09:56 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to Gold futures by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: Medium materiality 73/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Equities / Stock MarketsMedium · 73/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear GC=F
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Negative

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

2

Gold slips as Fed chief Warsh's Jackson Hole speech loomsPublished · 28 Aug 2026, 10:19 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to Gold futures by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: Medium materiality 73/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

CommoditiesMedium · 73/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALMay hurt GC=F
Down

Why: The headline reports weaker gold prices; that is a market observation, not a new independent cause.

Confidence
High
Strength
Moderate
Headline mood
Negative

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
Gold Price Move
Link to asset
Reported Price Momentum
Uncertainty
None Identified From Headline
Sample
Independent event
Rule
GOLD_SOFTENING

Original source ↗

3

Indonesia Gold Price Today: Gold Falls, According to FXStreet DataPublished · 28 Aug 2026, 13:44 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to Gold futures by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 75/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

CommoditiesHigh · 75/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALMay hurt GC=F
Down

Why: The headline reports weaker gold prices; that is a market observation, not a new independent cause.

Confidence
High
Strength
Moderate
Headline mood
Negative

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
Gold Price Move
Link to asset
Reported Price Momentum
Uncertainty
None Identified From Headline
Sample
Independent event
Rule
GOLD_SOFTENING

Original source ↗

4

Markets hold their breath before the Fed speech as oil falls and gold waitsPublished · 28 Aug 2026, 21:05 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to Gold futures by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 75/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

CommoditiesHigh · 75/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALPushes both ways GC=F
Mixed

Why: Gold is described as waiting rather than receiving a clear supportive or pressuring catalyst.

Confidence
Medium
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Negative

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
Cross Asset Waiting
Link to asset
Safe Haven Waiting
Uncertainty
None Identified From Headline
Sample
Independent event
Rule
OIL_AND_GOLD_WAIT

Original source ↗

5

Equities rise with 2-year yields, dollar as rate hike bets rise following Warsh speechPublished · 28 Aug 2026, 23:47 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to Gold futures by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 79/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Equities / Stock MarketsHigh · 79/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALMay hurt GC=F
Down

Why: Higher yields and a stronger dollar can raise the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Confidence
High
Strength
Moderate
Headline mood
Positive

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
Rates Repricing
Link to asset
Real Yields And Dollar
Uncertainty
None Identified From Headline
Sample
Independent event
Rule
RATE_YIELDS_DOLLAR

Original source ↗

6

Gold falls as rate-rise expectations increasePublished · 29 Aug 2026, 03:09 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to Gold futures by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 75/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

CommoditiesHigh · 75/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALMay hurt GC=F
Down

Why: The headline reports weaker gold prices; that is a market observation, not a new independent cause.

Confidence
High
Strength
Moderate
Headline mood
Mixed

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
Gold Price Move
Link to asset
Reported Price Momentum
Uncertainty
None Identified From Headline
Sample
Independent event
Rule
GOLD_SOFTENING

Original source ↗

7

Warsh turns hawkish; gold and silver plungePublished · 29 Aug 2026, 19:41 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to Gold futures by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: Medium materiality 69/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

CommoditiesMedium · 69/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear GC=F
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

8

Rate-hike odds jump; gold and silver fall sharplyPublished · 29 Aug 2026, 21:00 SGT · Company Or AssetOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to Gold futures by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 75/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

CommoditiesHigh · 75/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALMay hurt GC=F
Down

Why: The headline reports weaker gold prices; that is a market observation, not a new independent cause.

Confidence
High
Strength
Moderate
Headline mood
Negative

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
Gold Price Move
Link to asset
Reported Price Momentum
Uncertainty
None Identified From Headline
Sample
Independent event
Rule
GOLD_SOFTENING

Original source ↗

9

Inflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meetingPublished · 29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to Gold futures by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 88/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Public Policy & GovernmentHigh · 88/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear GC=F
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

10

Warsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meetingPublished · 29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to Gold futures by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: Medium materiality 72/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

Public Policy & GovernmentMedium · 72/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear GC=F
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · No eligible saved later-price checkAssociation only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

11

Gold hits near two-week low on Fed chief's hawkish stancePublished · 31 Aug 2026, 10:28 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to Gold futures by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 80/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

CommoditiesHigh · 80/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear GC=F
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Negative

What happened later20h · Saved price rose after the headline; association only · +0.59%Association only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

12

New Zealand raised its policy rate as fuel pressure lifted inflation.Published · 02 Sept 2026, 10:00 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to Gold futures by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 86/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

C121 Source-timed Current EventsHigh · 86/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear GC=F
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Mixed

What happened later20h · Saved price rose after the headline; association only · +2.27%Association only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

13

A global bond sell-off deepened amid energy-led inflation and borrowing-cost fears.Published · 02 Sept 2026, 16:54 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to Gold futures by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 86/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

C121 Source-timed Current EventsHigh · 86/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear GC=F
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · Saved price rose after the headline; association only · +2.75%Association only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗

14

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%.Published · 02 Sept 2026, 21:45 SGT · Macro Or PolicyOpens in a new tab.

System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
OTR Graph Learning data: linked to Gold futures by an explicit saved source mapping. Saved importance: High materiality 86/100.

A public-price comparison appears when tape is available; temporal association only, and this does not establish causation.

C121 Source-timed Current EventsHigh · 86/100Source time verified

NEWS SIGNALUnclear GC=F
No direction

Why: No verified asset-specific event-to-exposure rule matched, so OTR abstains instead of using generic wording.

Confidence
Low
Strength
Unclear
Headline mood
Neutral

What happened later20h · Saved price rose after the headline; association only · +1.14%Association only. This does not prove the headline caused the move.

Research label · not a live prediction. Current weight: 0.

How OTR scored this
Event
No Asset Specific Rule
Link to asset
Unmapped
Uncertainty
No Asset Specific Rule
Sample
Independent event
Rule
Abstain

Original source ↗
Prediction history · 8 earlier · newest first
1. P2
  
  BULLISH · 4713.600098 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
  
  Published
  26 Aug 2026, 07:53 SGT
  Deadline
  27 Aug 2026, 03:53 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P2 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
2. P3
  
  BULLISH · 4682.7998046875 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
  
  Published
  25 Aug 2026, 17:43 SGT
  Deadline
  26 Aug 2026, 13:43 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P3 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
3. P4
  
  BULLISH · 4697.2001953125 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
  
  Published
  25 Aug 2026, 15:22 SGT
  Deadline
  26 Aug 2026, 11:22 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P4 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
4. P5
  
  BULLISH · 4717.7998046875 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
  
  Published
  25 Aug 2026, 10:11 SGT
  Deadline
  26 Aug 2026, 06:11 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P5 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
5. P6
  
  BULLISH · 4573.7998046875 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
  
  Published
  21 Aug 2026, 01:53 SGT
  Deadline
  21 Aug 2026, 21:53 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P6 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
6. P7
  
  BULLISH · 4510.2998046875 USDPROOF RECEIPT · HIT (NOT FOUNDER-STAMPED)
  
  Published
  20 Aug 2026, 20:41 SGT
  Deadline
  21 Aug 2026, 16:41 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: immutable proof receipt HIT. This is a traceable read-only result, not a Founder stamp. P7 remains at its original publication time.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P7 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
7. P8
  
  BULLISH · 4548.399902344 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
  
  Published
  20 Aug 2026, 17:22 SGT
  Deadline
  21 Aug 2026, 13:22 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P8 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
8. P9
  
  BULLISH · 4546.600097656 USDNO IMMUTABLE ROW VERDICT · GRAPH SNAPSHOT
  
  Published
  20 Aug 2026, 15:21 SGT
  Deadline
  21 Aug 2026, 11:21 SGT
  
  System analysis · OTR Graph Learning data
  OTR Graph Learning data: no immutable row verdict was available as of 2026-09-07T03:29:06.600+08:00. This saved archive call is not relabelled as pending, and no HIT or MISS is inferred.
  
  A latest-public-price comparison appears when tape is available; it cannot grade or alter the Original recorded result.
  
  P9 plotted at publication timeOpen Receipt
Graph LearningHow news has moved Gold futures beforeOpen the complete asset-specific memory
OTR GRAPH LEARNING
What OTR sees for Gold futures
An extra check. It does not replace the other evidence.

What this is: The standard COMEX gold futures contract, quoted in U.S. dollars per troy ounce; a leveraged derivative rather than physical gold ownership.
Headlines that may cause the price of this investible to go up
Expected real interest rates fall or the U.S. dollar weakens
Financial stress or geopolitical risk raises demand for liquid reserve assets
Official-sector or central-bank gold buying rises
Headlines that may cause the price of this investible to go down
Expected real rates rise or the U.S. dollar strengthens
Financial and geopolitical risk normalizes
Central banks or investment funds become net sellers
What OTR checks
Real yields and policy surprises
Broad U.S. dollar
Inflation expectations
Official gold reserve changes
42 saved news time checks23 completed14 rose7 fell2 roughly flat

ASSET-SPECIFIC NEWS MEMORYWhat the news may mean here
0 supportive, 5 pressuring and 9 mixed or unclear asset-specific news signals.
14 linked headlines classified for this investible; 14 independent event samples. 2 of 5 clear checked moves matched the research direction.
Can OTR use this for a prediction yet?Not for extra weight yet. The label must be frozen before the outcome and repeat in forward checks first.
Open the full Graph Learning analysis
Past
14 saved story relationships, 23 eligible measured windows. New story bindings add no measured outcome.
Now
News that may help includes Expected real interest rates fall or the U.S. dollar weakens; Financial stress or geopolitical risk raises demand for liquid reserve assets. News that may hurt includes Expected real rates rise or the U.S. dollar strengthens; Financial and geopolitical risk normalizes. OTR also watches Real yields and policy surprises, Broad U.S. dollar, Inflation expectations.
Next prediction
Future calls require their own fresh entry and frozen rules. Historical context never substitutes for missing outcome evidence.
When this can mislead
Gold is not always a safe haven in the first phase of a liquidity crisis.; Higher inflation can lift gold or provoke higher real rates that weigh on it.; GC futures are leveraged and affected by margin, expiry, and roll mechanics.; Dollar, real-rate, central-bank, jewelry, technology, and speculative demand can conflict.
Saved headline-move memory
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%.02 Sept 2026, 21:45 SGT
1h · rose 0.15%4h · fell 0.06%20h · rose 1.14%
A global bond sell-off deepened amid energy-led inflation and borrowing-cost fears.02 Sept 2026, 16:54 SGT
1h · fell 0.11%4h · rose 0.47%20h · rose 2.75%
New Zealand raised its policy rate as fuel pressure lifted inflation.02 Sept 2026, 10:00 SGT
1h · rose 0.28%4h · rose 0.67%20h · rose 2.27%
Gold hits near two-week low on Fed chief's hawkish stance31 Aug 2026, 10:28 SGT
1h · rose 0.11%4h · rose 0.30%20h · rose 0.59%
Inflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meeting29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Warsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meeting29 Aug 2026, 21:59 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Rate-hike odds jump; gold and silver fall sharply29 Aug 2026, 21:00 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Warsh turns hawkish; gold and silver plunge29 Aug 2026, 19:41 SGT
1h · not checked yet4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Gold falls as rate-rise expectations increase29 Aug 2026, 03:09 SGT
1h · was roughly flat 0.04%4h · not checked yet20h · not checked yet
Equities rise with 2-year yields, dollar as rate hike bets rise following Warsh speech28 Aug 2026, 23:47 SGT
1h · fell 1.21%4h · fell 1.77%20h · not checked yet
Markets hold their breath before the Fed speech as oil falls and gold waits28 Aug 2026, 21:05 SGT
1h · fell 0.45%4h · fell 2.70%20h · not checked yet
Indonesia Gold Price Today: Gold Falls, According to FXStreet Data28 Aug 2026, 13:44 SGT
1h · rose 0.34%4h · rose 0.71%20h · not checked yet
Gold slips as Fed chief Warsh's Jackson Hole speech looms28 Aug 2026, 10:19 SGT
1h · rose 0.11%4h · was roughly flat 0.02%20h · not checked yet
Stocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold up28 Aug 2026, 09:56 SGT
1h · rose 0.22%4h · fell 0.06%20h · not checked yet
Clue, not proof: timing is a clue, never proof. A price move after a headline does not prove the headline caused it. OTR uses a pattern only after it repeats and still holds up against the wider market.

One timeline of saved evidence

Publication, issuance, review deadlines and actual observations retain their distinct dates.

Open 33 dated moments

Recorded time	Moment	Evidence
2026-08-20T07:21:23.412Z	Prediction	Original rise prediction
2026-08-20T09:22:15.491Z	Prediction	Original rise prediction
2026-08-20T12:41:42.645Z	Prediction	Original rise prediction
2026-08-20T17:53:35.703Z	Prediction	Original rise prediction
2026-08-21T03:21:23.412Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-08-21T05:22:15.491Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-08-21T08:41:42.645Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-08-21T13:53:35.703Z	Review deadline	Recorded outcome: Right
2026-08-25T02:11:22.534Z	Prediction	Original rise prediction
2026-08-25T07:22:46.874Z	Prediction	Original rise prediction
2026-08-25T09:43:20.079Z	Prediction	Original rise prediction
2026-08-25T22:11:22.534Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-08-25T23:53:00.000Z	Prediction	Original rise prediction
2026-08-26T03:22:46.874Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-08-26T05:43:20.079Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-08-26T19:53:00.000Z	Review deadline	Recorded outcome: Wrong
2026-08-28T01:56:49.203Z	Story	Stocks split as rate pressure hurts breadth while mega-cap platforms hold up
2026-08-28T02:19:00.000Z	Story	Gold slips as Fed chief Warsh's Jackson Hole speech looms
2026-08-28T03:34:58.951Z	Prediction	Original fall prediction
2026-08-28T05:44:42.918Z	Story	Indonesia Gold Price Today: Gold Falls, According to FXStreet Data
2026-08-28T13:05:00.000Z	Story	Markets hold their breath before the Fed speech as oil falls and gold waits
2026-08-28T15:47:32.637Z	Story	Equities rise with 2-year yields, dollar as rate hike bets rise following Warsh speech
2026-08-28T19:09:00.000Z	Story	Gold falls as rate-rise expectations increase
2026-08-29T11:41:15.000Z	Story	Warsh turns hawkish; gold and silver plunge
2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z	Story	Rate-hike odds jump; gold and silver fall sharply
2026-08-29T13:59:45.000Z	Story	Inflation focus raises the chance of tighter policy at the next Fed meeting
2026-08-29T13:59:45.000Z	Story	Warsh raises stakes for the Fed's next meeting
2026-08-31T02:28:00.000Z	Story	Gold hits near two-week low on Fed chief's hawkish stance
2026-09-01T03:34:58.951Z	Review deadline	Open the original review terms
2026-09-02T02:00:00.000Z	Story	New Zealand raised its policy rate as fuel pressure lifted inflation.
2026-09-02T08:54:00.000Z	Story	A global bond sell-off deepened amid energy-led inflation and borrowing-cost fears.
2026-09-02T13:45:00.000Z	Story	The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%.
2026-09-04T05:01:28.366Z	Original result receipt recorded	GC=F · UNVERIFIABLE under original rules

Gold futures: predictions, prices and linked headlines

What happened after saved stories about Gold futures

14 saved story matches

55 out of 100 ready for comparison

Rose in 100% of its 4 complete twenty-hour checks

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Latest prediction · P1

Headlines · 14 · oldest first

Prediction history · 8 earlier · newest first

Headlines that may cause the price of this investible to go up

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