Dollar quotes remain high as Iran’s banks sell dollars
By OnTheRice · Sources and limitations · Report a correction
Reuters reported free-market dollar quotes near 2,688,000 Iranian rials on Bonbast on 3 October, versus 2,632,000 Friday; Alanchand showed 2,695,000. State television said state banks had begun selling up to $2 billion to support the rial. That weak quote alongside announced intervention shows no verified reversal yet, but the measurement time is unspecified and neither rate is an official fix. USD/IRR is BULLISH only if fresh tracker readings remain elevated after intervention; no regulated, broadly accessible market was verified.
Source confidenceNot assessed
What’s changing?
A high USD/IRR free-market quote persisting while authorities announce dollar sales would suggest that the support operation has not yet reversed pressure in those informal reference markets.
Key points
- Reuters reported USD/IRR free-market tracker quotations around 2,688,000 on Bonbast versus 2,632,000 on Friday; Alanchand reported 2,695,000 rials per dollar. Iranian state television said public banks began selling up to USD 2 billion to support the rial. Exact measurement time for either free-market quote was not given.
What could change this view?
- Verified dollar sales materially lift the rial and both trackers retreat; a change in official controls or export receipts could also reset the pressure.
Bottom line
The direction differs by asset. Each original call is shown below.
This is based on the information recorded with this signal.
How likely is this call? · Three frameworks
Iranian rial (IRR) · BEARISH
Probability not recorded at publication. This earlier call is preserved without adding a hindsight estimate.
USD/IRR free-market tracker quotations (informal reference, Iranian rials per U.S. dollar) · BULLISH
Probability not recorded at publication. This earlier call is preserved without adding a hindsight estimate.
Evidence behind this view
Checks whether separate pieces of evidence support the same view.
Recorded connection
A high USD/IRR free-market quote persisting while authorities announce dollar sales would suggest that the support operation has not yet reversed pressure in those informal reference markets.
We have not established a separate count of independent evidence clusters for this card. Several reports may rely on the same event or data provider.
What past price moves show
Compares today’s price moves with recorded past patterns.
No asset-specific historical pattern test is recorded separately for this card.
Evidence against this view
Shows evidence and risks that could challenge this view.
Recorded opposing evidence and risks
Verified dollar sales materially lift the rial and both trackers retreat; a change in official controls or export receipts could also reset the pressure.
Why the direction changed
Explains recorded changes from expecting a rise to expecting a fall, or the reverse.
No documented bullish-to-bearish or bearish-to-bullish change is available for this card. We keep the original call and its time unchanged.
What people say vs the facts
Compares recorded public discussion with checked market facts.
No separate Reddit or public-discussion comparison with verified market data is recorded for this card. We cannot treat social attention as proof of a market move.
How past forecasts performed
Shows recorded forecast results and what they can teach us.
Recorded outcomes for this signal: 0 HIT, 0 MISS, 2 other or pending. These counts are not a forecast probability.
No tested mapping from evidence combinations to future success is recorded for this card. Confidence in sources and past outcomes do not establish a calibrated probability.
Sources, original wording and price checks
Published
First published through Sites 05 Oct 2026, 01:54:01 SGT
24-hour check
- Iranian rial (IRR)BEARISH ? UNVERIFIABLEPrice 1: UNVERIFIED
At publication: 05 Oct 2026, 01:54:01 SGT
Price 2 (+24h): UNVERIFIED
At +24h: 06 Oct 2026, 01:54:01 SGT
Change: not scoredFirst published through Sites: 05 Oct 2026, 01:54:01 SGTCall and evidence
BULLISH USD/IRR / BEARISH IRR only if verified post-intervention tracker readings remain elevated; treat the quotes as informal and possibly non-executable.
The informal free-market rial tracker has no verified executable venue or matched historical prices at the two fixed clocks.
Price series: Iranian rial (IRR) · Unavailable. The informal free-market rial tracker has no verified executable venue or matched historical prices at the two fixed clocks.
Price 1 · at publicationExact endpoint: 05 Oct 2026, 01:54:01 SGT
UNVERIFIED endpoint price
No exact source quote has been verified for this endpoint.
The exact price type has not been verified.
Price 2 · exactly +24 hoursExact endpoint: 06 Oct 2026, 01:54:01 SGT
UNVERIFIED endpoint price
No exact source quote has been verified for this endpoint.
The exact price type has not been verified.
Change not scored: both exact endpoint prices are required. The informal free-market rial tracker has no verified executable venue or matched historical prices at the two fixed clocks.
Correction: Owner-requested full recalculation using nearest available intraday prices and disclosed offsets; includes previously settled calls. The previous result remains in the immutable assessment history.
- USD/IRR free-market tracker quotations (informal reference, Iranian rials per U.S. dollar)BULLISH ? UNVERIFIABLEPrice 1: UNVERIFIED
At publication: 05 Oct 2026, 01:54:01 SGT
Price 2 (+24h): UNVERIFIED
At +24h: 06 Oct 2026, 01:54:01 SGT
Change: not scoredFirst published through Sites: 05 Oct 2026, 01:54:01 SGTCall and evidence
BULLISH USD/IRR / BEARISH IRR only if verified post-intervention tracker readings remain elevated; treat the quotes as informal and possibly non-executable.
The informal free-market rial tracker has no verified executable venue or matched historical prices at the two fixed clocks.
Price series: USD/IRR free-market tracker quotations (informal reference, Iranian rials per U.S. dollar) · Unavailable. The informal free-market rial tracker has no verified executable venue or matched historical prices at the two fixed clocks.
Price 1 · at publicationExact endpoint: 05 Oct 2026, 01:54:01 SGT
UNVERIFIED endpoint price
No exact source quote has been verified for this endpoint.
The exact price type has not been verified.
Price 2 · exactly +24 hoursExact endpoint: 06 Oct 2026, 01:54:01 SGT
UNVERIFIED endpoint price
No exact source quote has been verified for this endpoint.
The exact price type has not been verified.
Change not scored: both exact endpoint prices are required. The informal free-market rial tracker has no verified executable venue or matched historical prices at the two fixed clocks.
Correction: Owner-requested full recalculation using nearest available intraday prices and disclosed offsets; includes previously settled calls. The previous result remains in the immutable assessment history.
What changed
Recorded public historyReuters reported free-market dollar quotes near 2,688,000 Iranian rials on Bonbast on 3 October, versus 2,632,000 Friday; Alanchand showed…
This is the first recorded public view. Further public updates will appear here.
- Dollar quotes remain high as Iran’s banks sell dollars
Reuters reported free-market dollar quotes near 2,688,000 Iranian rials on Bonbast on 3 October, versus 2,632,000 Friday; Alanchand showed 2,695,000. State television said state banks had begun selling up to $2 billion to support the rial. That weak quote alongside announced intervention shows no verified reversal yet, but the measurement time is unspecified and neither rate is an official fix. USD/IRR is BULLISH only if fresh tracker readings remain elevated after intervention; no regulated, broadly accessible market was verified.
First published by OTR: 5 Oct, 01:54 SGTPublished by OTR: 5 Oct 2026, 01:54 SGT
Why the view changed
This is the first recorded view. Future source-backed updates will appear here.
Evidence, memory & review 2 linked sources
Named assets or actors: USD/IRR free-market tracker quotations (informal reference, Iranian rials per U.S. dollar)
Directional takeaway: BULLISH USD/IRR / BEARISH IRR only if verified post-intervention tracker readings remain elevated; treat the quotes as informal and possibly non-executable.
OTR reasoning: A high USD/IRR free-market quote persisting while authorities announce dollar sales would suggest that the support operation has not yet reversed pressure in those informal reference markets.
Counterpoint: Verified dollar sales materially lift the rial and both trackers retreat; a change in official controls or export receipts could also reset the pressure.
Source-grounded facts (paraphrased)
- Time not supplied: Reuters reported USD/IRR free-market tracker quotations around 2,688,000 on Bonbast versus 2,632,000 on Friday; Alanchand reported 2,695,000 rials per dollar. Iranian state television said public banks began selling up to USD 2 billion to support the rial. Exact measurement time for either free-market quote was not given.
Source trail
- Iranian rial falls to new low as central bank intervenes ↗Reuters via Zonebourse03/10/2026 21:39; modified 21:42; timezone not displayed · not stated
- Iranian rial hits new low; central bank sells dollars ↗ReutersReuters rendered publication timestamp; normalized 2026-10-03T19:42:00Z by prior observation · UTC per prior observation
Review status: supported with clock caveat
No score or probability is presented.