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OnTheRice’s Emerging DataInvestment

Almarai sales grew faster than earnings as costs rose

By OnTheRice · Sources and limitations · Report a correction

BEARISHHorizon24H
Probability Not recorded

Almarai's 4 October Q3 release showed SAR6.19bn revenue (+11% year on year) but net profit only +1% to SAR617.8m; higher feed-shipping, distribution and energy costs offset the sales growth. Nine-month revenue rose 10% while profit stayed near SAR1.99bn. Argaam puts the 4 October close at SAR43.60 (+3.81%). Saudi Exchange’s trading schedule ends by 15:20 KSA (12:20Z); the issuer release page states it was distributed at 13:12Z. The close predates the displayed release timestamps, so these sources establish no post-release share response. BEARISH only if later margins confirm costs persist.

Current priceNot available
24-hour changeNot available

Source confidenceNot assessed

Published
Check time

What’s changing?

Revenue grew much faster than net profit as feed shipping, distribution and energy expenses absorbed revenue growth; if that cost conversion persists, earnings momentum lags sales.

Key points

  • The Almarai-published Q3 release carried by MarketScreener/Publicnow reports 4 Oct Q3 revenue SAR6.19bn (+11% YoY), net profit SAR617.8m (+1% YoY), nine-month revenue SAR18.22bn (+10%) and nine-month net profit SAR1.99bn broadly stable. It attributes the profit conversion gap to feed-shipping, distribution and energy costs. Its page displays 09:13 a.m. EDT (13:13Z), while its footer says distribution at 13:12 UTC; preserve this one-minute clock discrepancy. Argaam reports the 4 Oct Almarai close at SAR43.60, +3.81%. Saudi Exchange's official schedule sets continuous trading at 10:00–15:00 KSA, then closing auction/trade-at-last sessions through 15:20. Thus the market close predates the displayed issuer-release distribution time; the session gain cannot be treated as a measured post-release response. A primary Q3 filing URL was not separately located in the official issuer/exchange search; the public release identifies Almarai as publisher and links its IR archive.

What could change this view?

  • Broad sales growth, higher poultry volume, recent capacity, the water acquisition, and improved revenue mix could keep earnings resilient or allow later profit growth to catch up.

Bottom line

More likely direction: BEARISH over the next 24 hours.

This is based on the information recorded with this signal.

How likely is this call? · Three frameworks

Almarai Company common shares (Saudi Exchange: 2280; SAR) · BEARISH

Probability not recorded at publication. This earlier call is preserved without adding a hindsight estimate.

Read the shared method · Read the public probability method

Evidence behind this view

Checks whether separate pieces of evidence support the same view.

Recorded connection

Revenue grew much faster than net profit as feed shipping, distribution and energy expenses absorbed revenue growth; if that cost conversion persists, earnings momentum lags sales.

We have not established a separate count of independent evidence clusters for this card. Several reports may rely on the same event or data provider.

What past price moves show

Compares today’s price moves with recorded past patterns.

No asset-specific historical pattern test is recorded separately for this card.

Evidence against this view

Shows evidence and risks that could challenge this view.

Recorded opposing evidence and risks

Broad sales growth, higher poultry volume, recent capacity, the water acquisition, and improved revenue mix could keep earnings resilient or allow later profit growth to catch up.

Why the direction changed

Explains recorded changes from expecting a rise to expecting a fall, or the reverse.

No documented bullish-to-bearish or bearish-to-bullish change is available for this card. We keep the original call and its time unchanged.

What people say vs the facts

Compares recorded public discussion with checked market facts.

No separate Reddit or public-discussion comparison with verified market data is recorded for this card. We cannot treat social attention as proof of a market move.

How past forecasts performed

Shows recorded forecast results and what they can teach us.

Recorded outcomes for this signal: 0 HIT, 1 MISS, 0 other or pending. These counts are not a forecast probability.

No tested mapping from evidence combinations to future success is recorded for this card. Confidence in sources and past outcomes do not establish a calibrated probability.

MISSHistorical record
Sources, original wording and price checks

Published

First published through Sites 05 Oct 2026, 06:34:10 SGT

24-hour check

  • Almarai Company common shares (Saudi Exchange: 2280; SAR)BEARISH ✕ MISS
    Price 1: 43.38000107 SAR
    At publication: 05 Oct 2026, 06:34:10 SGT
    Price 2 (+24h): 43.58000183 SAR
    At +24h: 06 Oct 2026, 06:34:10 SGT
    Change: +0.461%
    Price 1 source: 05 Oct 2026, 15:01:00 SGT (offset 30409.177 s)
    Price 2 source: 05 Oct 2026, 19:59:00 SGT (offset -38110.823 s)    First published through Sites: 05 Oct 2026, 06:34:10 SGT
    Call and evidence

    BEARISH only if later results show input costs continue to prevent profit growth from catching up with sales; current Q3 data and positive 3.81% close do not support an unconditional short.

    The price rose between the nearest observations to publication and +24 hours; the bearish direction was incorrect.

    Price series: 2280.SR · Saudi Exchange. Nearest available one-minute candle opening price to each fixed endpoint. Offsets are disclosed; original call and deadline are unchanged.

    Price 1 · at publication

    Exact endpoint: 05 Oct 2026, 06:34:10 SGT

    43.38000107 SAR · Nearest intraday candle (approximation)

    Source quote: 43.38000107 SAR · 05 Oct 2026, 15:01:00 SGT

    Source observation ↗

    Offset from required time: 30409.177 seconds. Negative means before; positive means after.

    One-minute candle start; candle opening price. This is an approximation to the requested instant.

    Price 2 · exactly +24 hours

    Exact endpoint: 06 Oct 2026, 06:34:10 SGT

    43.58000183 SAR · Nearest intraday candle (approximation)

    Source quote: 43.58000183 SAR · 05 Oct 2026, 19:59:00 SGT

    Source observation ↗

    Offset from required time: -38110.823 seconds. Negative means before; positive means after.

    One-minute candle start; candle opening price. This is an approximation to the requested instant.

    Change: +0.20000076 SAR (+0.461%). The price rose between the nearest observations to publication and +24 hours; the bearish direction was incorrect.

    Correction: Owner-requested full recalculation using nearest available intraday prices and disclosed offsets; includes previously settled calls. The previous result remains in the immutable assessment history.

What changed

Recorded public history

Almarai's 4 October Q3 release showed SAR6.19bn revenue (+11% year on year) but net profit only +1% to SAR617.8m; higher feed-shipping,…

This is the first recorded public view. Further public updates will appear here.

  1. Almarai sales grew faster than earnings as costs rose

    Almarai's 4 October Q3 release showed SAR6.19bn revenue (+11% year on year) but net profit only +1% to SAR617.8m; higher feed-shipping, distribution and energy costs offset the sales growth. Nine-month revenue rose 10% while profit stayed near SAR1.99bn. Argaam puts the 4 October close at SAR43.60 (+3.81%). Saudi Exchange’s trading schedule ends by 15:20 KSA (12:20Z); the issuer release page states it was distributed at 13:12Z. The close predates the displayed release timestamps, so these sources establish no post-release share response. BEARISH only if later margins confirm costs persist.

    First published by OTR: 5 Oct, 06:34 SGTPublished by OTR: 5 Oct 2026, 06:34 SGT
    Almarai delivers broad-based revenue growth in Q3 2026 ↗TASI rises 1.1% to 10,506 points, turnover at SAR 2.3B ↗Almarai Investor Relations (Q3 release says full results are available here) ↗Saudi Exchange Trading Cycle and Times ↗Saudi Exchange Amended Trading and Membership Procedures (official PDF) ↗

Why the view changed

This is the first recorded view. Future source-backed updates will appear here.

Evidence, memory & review 5 linked sources

Named assets or actors: Almarai Company common shares (Saudi Exchange: 2280; SAR)

Directional takeaway: BEARISH only if later results show input costs continue to prevent profit growth from catching up with sales; current Q3 data and positive 3.81% close do not support an unconditional short.

OTR reasoning: Revenue grew much faster than net profit as feed shipping, distribution and energy expenses absorbed revenue growth; if that cost conversion persists, earnings momentum lags sales.

Counterpoint: Broad sales growth, higher poultry volume, recent capacity, the water acquisition, and improved revenue mix could keep earnings resilient or allow later profit growth to catch up.

Source-grounded facts (paraphrased)

  • Time not supplied: The Almarai-published Q3 release carried by MarketScreener/Publicnow reports 4 Oct Q3 revenue SAR6.19bn (+11% YoY), net profit SAR617.8m (+1% YoY), nine-month revenue SAR18.22bn (+10%) and nine-month net profit SAR1.99bn broadly stable. It attributes the profit conversion gap to feed-shipping, distribution and energy costs. Its page displays 09:13 a.m. EDT (13:13Z), while its footer says distribution at 13:12 UTC; preserve this one-minute clock discrepancy. Argaam reports the 4 Oct Almarai close at SAR43.60, +3.81%. Saudi Exchange's official schedule sets continuous trading at 10:00–15:00 KSA, then closing auction/trade-at-last sessions through 15:20. Thus the market close predates the displayed issuer-release distribution time; the session gain cannot be treated as a measured post-release response. A primary Q3 filing URL was not separately located in the official issuer/exchange search; the public release identifies Almarai as publisher and links its IR archive. Source records: https://www.marketscreener.com/news/almarai-delivers-broad-based-revenue-growth-in-q3-2026-ce785ddbdc8ff126, https://www.argaam.com/en/market-daily-report/3/62222?preview=true, https://www.almarai.com/en/corporate/investor-relations, https://www.saudiexchange.sa/wps/portal/saudiexchange/rules-guidance/capital-market-overview/trading-cycle-and-times, https://www.saudiexchange.sa/wps/wcm/connect/39037207-733d-4346-9007-762e0780a05e/Amended%2BTrading%2Band%2BMembership%2BProcedures%2B-%2B.pdf?CVID=&MOD=AJPERES

Source trail

Review status: SUPPORTED WITH CLOCK CAVEAT

No score or probability is presented.

These records are in the same category and cite at least one of the same source documents. Shared evidence is not independent confirmation; each record keeps its own date and conclusion.