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Hormuz passage depends on seven conditions

By OnTheRice · Sources and limitations · Report a correction

ASSET-SPECIFICHorizon24H

Iran said normal passage through Hormuz depends on seven conditions and could return within seven days if they are met. Reuters reported that the dispute is about the order of steps; the sequence matters, but talks could still fail or the conditions could change.

Current priceNot available
24-hour changeNot available

Source confidenceNot assessed

Published
Check time

What’s changing?

Diplomatic sequencing can change shipping expectations before a formal settlement.

Key points

  • Reuters published at 07:59:07 UTC on 4 October that Iran tied normal reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to seven conditions linked to an earlier memorandum. Iran said a proposal could restore normal passage within seven days if the conditions are met; Reuters described the remaining dispute as one of sequencing and noted Qatar was carrying messages.

What could change this view?

  • Talks may break down, conditions may expand, or security incidents may overwhelm the proposed sequence.

Bottom line

The direction differs by asset. Each original call is shown below.

This is based on the information recorded with this signal.

How likely is this call? · Three frameworks

Brent · BEARISH

Probability not recorded at publication. This earlier call is preserved without adding a hindsight estimate.

Brent · BULLISH

Probability not recorded at publication. This earlier call is preserved without adding a hindsight estimate.

WTI · BEARISH

Probability not recorded at publication. This earlier call is preserved without adding a hindsight estimate.

WTI · BULLISH

Probability not recorded at publication. This earlier call is preserved without adding a hindsight estimate.

Tanker rates · BEARISH

Probability not recorded at publication. This earlier call is preserved without adding a hindsight estimate.

Tanker rates · BULLISH

Probability not recorded at publication. This earlier call is preserved without adding a hindsight estimate.

Read the shared method · Read the public probability method

Evidence behind this view

Checks whether separate pieces of evidence support the same view.

Recorded connection

Diplomatic sequencing can change shipping expectations before a formal settlement.

We have not established a separate count of independent evidence clusters for this card. Several reports may rely on the same event or data provider.

What past price moves show

Compares today’s price moves with recorded past patterns.

No asset-specific historical pattern test is recorded separately for this card.

Evidence against this view

Shows evidence and risks that could challenge this view.

Recorded opposing evidence and risks

Talks may break down, conditions may expand, or security incidents may overwhelm the proposed sequence.

Why the direction changed

Explains recorded changes from expecting a rise to expecting a fall, or the reverse.

No documented bullish-to-bearish or bearish-to-bullish change is available for this card. We keep the original call and its time unchanged.

What people say vs the facts

Compares recorded public discussion with checked market facts.

No separate Reddit or public-discussion comparison with verified market data is recorded for this card. We cannot treat social attention as proof of a market move.

How past forecasts performed

Shows recorded forecast results and what they can teach us.

Recorded outcomes for this signal: 2 HIT, 2 MISS, 2 other or pending. These counts are not a forecast probability.

No tested mapping from evidence combinations to future success is recorded for this card. Confidence in sources and past outcomes do not establish a calibrated probability.

MIXED RESULTSHistorical record
BrentBEARISHHIT
BrentBULLISHMISS
WTIBEARISHHIT
WTIBULLISHMISS
Tanker ratesBEARISHUNVERIFIABLE
Tanker ratesBULLISHUNVERIFIABLE
Sources, original wording and price checks

Published

First published through Sites 05 Oct 2026, 13:38:08 SGT

24-hour check

  • BrentBEARISH ✓ HIT
    Price 1: 101.83999634 USD
    At publication: 05 Oct 2026, 13:38:08 SGT
    Price 2 (+24h): 100.63999939 USD
    At +24h: 06 Oct 2026, 13:38:08 SGT
    Change: -1.178%
    Price 1 source: 05 Oct 2026, 13:38:00 SGT (offset -8.571615 s)
    Price 2 source: 06 Oct 2026, 13:38:00 SGT (offset -8.571615 s)    First published through Sites: 05 Oct 2026, 13:38:08 SGT
    Call and evidence

    BULLISH ON CONFIRMATION (Brent/WTI and tanker-risk pricing if transit disruption worsens); BEARISH ON CONFIRMATION (Brent/WTI and tanker-risk pricing if normal commercial transits recover after conditions are implemented). No one-way trade view.

    The price fell between the nearest observations to publication and +24 hours; the bearish direction was correct.

    Price series: BZ=F · NY Mercantile. Generic Brent call evaluated using Yahoo BZ=F front-contract series on NYMEX; same feed for both endpoints. This evaluation mapping is disclosed and does not rewrite the original call.

    Price 1 · at publication

    Exact endpoint: 05 Oct 2026, 13:38:08 SGT

    101.83999634 USD · Nearest intraday candle (approximation)

    Source quote: 101.83999634 USD · 05 Oct 2026, 13:38:00 SGT

    Source observation ↗

    Offset from required time: -8.571615 seconds. Negative means before; positive means after.

    One-minute candle opening price, approximating the required instant.

    Price 2 · exactly +24 hours

    Exact endpoint: 06 Oct 2026, 13:38:08 SGT

    100.63999939 USD · Nearest intraday candle (approximation)

    Source quote: 100.63999939 USD · 06 Oct 2026, 13:38:00 SGT

    Source observation ↗

    Offset from required time: -8.571615 seconds. Negative means before; positive means after.

    One-minute candle opening price, approximating the required instant.

    Change: -1.19999695 USD (-1.178%). The price fell between the nearest observations to publication and +24 hours; the bearish direction was correct.

    Correction: Owner-requested full recalculation using nearest available intraday prices and disclosed offsets; includes previously settled calls. The previous result remains in the immutable assessment history.

  • BrentBULLISH ✕ MISS
    Price 1: 101.83999634 USD
    At publication: 05 Oct 2026, 13:38:08 SGT
    Price 2 (+24h): 100.63999939 USD
    At +24h: 06 Oct 2026, 13:38:08 SGT
    Change: -1.178%
    Price 1 source: 05 Oct 2026, 13:38:00 SGT (offset -8.571615 s)
    Price 2 source: 06 Oct 2026, 13:38:00 SGT (offset -8.571615 s)    First published through Sites: 05 Oct 2026, 13:38:08 SGT
    Call and evidence

    BULLISH ON CONFIRMATION (Brent/WTI and tanker-risk pricing if transit disruption worsens); BEARISH ON CONFIRMATION (Brent/WTI and tanker-risk pricing if normal commercial transits recover after conditions are implemented). No one-way trade view.

    The price fell between the nearest observations to publication and +24 hours; the bullish direction was incorrect.

    Price series: BZ=F · NY Mercantile. Generic Brent call evaluated using Yahoo BZ=F front-contract series on NYMEX; same feed for both endpoints. This evaluation mapping is disclosed and does not rewrite the original call.

    Price 1 · at publication

    Exact endpoint: 05 Oct 2026, 13:38:08 SGT

    101.83999634 USD · Nearest intraday candle (approximation)

    Source quote: 101.83999634 USD · 05 Oct 2026, 13:38:00 SGT

    Source observation ↗

    Offset from required time: -8.571615 seconds. Negative means before; positive means after.

    One-minute candle opening price, approximating the required instant.

    Price 2 · exactly +24 hours

    Exact endpoint: 06 Oct 2026, 13:38:08 SGT

    100.63999939 USD · Nearest intraday candle (approximation)

    Source quote: 100.63999939 USD · 06 Oct 2026, 13:38:00 SGT

    Source observation ↗

    Offset from required time: -8.571615 seconds. Negative means before; positive means after.

    One-minute candle opening price, approximating the required instant.

    Change: -1.19999695 USD (-1.178%). The price fell between the nearest observations to publication and +24 hours; the bullish direction was incorrect.

    Correction: Owner-requested full recalculation using nearest available intraday prices and disclosed offsets; includes previously settled calls. The previous result remains in the immutable assessment history.

  • WTIBEARISH ✓ HIT
    Price 1: 90.19999695 USD
    At publication: 05 Oct 2026, 13:38:08 SGT
    Price 2 (+24h): 89.68000031 USD
    At +24h: 06 Oct 2026, 13:38:08 SGT
    Change: -0.576%
    Price 1 source: 05 Oct 2026, 13:38:00 SGT (offset -8.571615 s)
    Price 2 source: 06 Oct 2026, 13:38:00 SGT (offset -8.571615 s)    First published through Sites: 05 Oct 2026, 13:38:08 SGT
    Call and evidence

    BULLISH ON CONFIRMATION (Brent/WTI and tanker-risk pricing if transit disruption worsens); BEARISH ON CONFIRMATION (Brent/WTI and tanker-risk pricing if normal commercial transits recover after conditions are implemented). No one-way trade view.

    The price fell between the nearest observations to publication and +24 hours; the bearish direction was correct.

    Price series: CL=F · NY Mercantile. Generic WTI call evaluated using Yahoo CL=F front-contract series on NYMEX; same feed for both endpoints. This evaluation mapping is disclosed and does not rewrite the original call.

    Price 1 · at publication

    Exact endpoint: 05 Oct 2026, 13:38:08 SGT

    90.19999695 USD · Nearest intraday candle (approximation)

    Source quote: 90.19999695 USD · 05 Oct 2026, 13:38:00 SGT

    Source observation ↗

    Offset from required time: -8.571615 seconds. Negative means before; positive means after.

    One-minute candle opening price, approximating the required instant.

    Price 2 · exactly +24 hours

    Exact endpoint: 06 Oct 2026, 13:38:08 SGT

    89.68000031 USD · Nearest intraday candle (approximation)

    Source quote: 89.68000031 USD · 06 Oct 2026, 13:38:00 SGT

    Source observation ↗

    Offset from required time: -8.571615 seconds. Negative means before; positive means after.

    One-minute candle opening price, approximating the required instant.

    Change: -0.51999664 USD (-0.576%). The price fell between the nearest observations to publication and +24 hours; the bearish direction was correct.

    Correction: Owner-requested full recalculation using nearest available intraday prices and disclosed offsets; includes previously settled calls. The previous result remains in the immutable assessment history.

  • WTIBULLISH ✕ MISS
    Price 1: 90.19999695 USD
    At publication: 05 Oct 2026, 13:38:08 SGT
    Price 2 (+24h): 89.68000031 USD
    At +24h: 06 Oct 2026, 13:38:08 SGT
    Change: -0.576%
    Price 1 source: 05 Oct 2026, 13:38:00 SGT (offset -8.571615 s)
    Price 2 source: 06 Oct 2026, 13:38:00 SGT (offset -8.571615 s)    First published through Sites: 05 Oct 2026, 13:38:08 SGT
    Call and evidence

    BULLISH ON CONFIRMATION (Brent/WTI and tanker-risk pricing if transit disruption worsens); BEARISH ON CONFIRMATION (Brent/WTI and tanker-risk pricing if normal commercial transits recover after conditions are implemented). No one-way trade view.

    The price fell between the nearest observations to publication and +24 hours; the bullish direction was incorrect.

    Price series: CL=F · NY Mercantile. Generic WTI call evaluated using Yahoo CL=F front-contract series on NYMEX; same feed for both endpoints. This evaluation mapping is disclosed and does not rewrite the original call.

    Price 1 · at publication

    Exact endpoint: 05 Oct 2026, 13:38:08 SGT

    90.19999695 USD · Nearest intraday candle (approximation)

    Source quote: 90.19999695 USD · 05 Oct 2026, 13:38:00 SGT

    Source observation ↗

    Offset from required time: -8.571615 seconds. Negative means before; positive means after.

    One-minute candle opening price, approximating the required instant.

    Price 2 · exactly +24 hours

    Exact endpoint: 06 Oct 2026, 13:38:08 SGT

    89.68000031 USD · Nearest intraday candle (approximation)

    Source quote: 89.68000031 USD · 06 Oct 2026, 13:38:00 SGT

    Source observation ↗

    Offset from required time: -8.571615 seconds. Negative means before; positive means after.

    One-minute candle opening price, approximating the required instant.

    Change: -0.51999664 USD (-0.576%). The price fell between the nearest observations to publication and +24 hours; the bullish direction was incorrect.

    Correction: Owner-requested full recalculation using nearest available intraday prices and disclosed offsets; includes previously settled calls. The previous result remains in the immutable assessment history.

  • Tanker ratesBEARISH ? UNVERIFIABLE
    Price 1: UNVERIFIED
    At publication: 05 Oct 2026, 13:38:08 SGT
    Price 2 (+24h): UNVERIFIED
    At +24h: 06 Oct 2026, 13:38:08 SGT
    Change: not scored    First published through Sites: 05 Oct 2026, 13:38:08 SGT
    Call and evidence

    BULLISH ON CONFIRMATION (Brent/WTI and tanker-risk pricing if transit disruption worsens); BEARISH ON CONFIRMATION (Brent/WTI and tanker-risk pricing if normal commercial transits recover after conditions are implemented). No one-way trade view.

    The directional call is included. The original card does not specify a unique tradeable instrument, contract or benchmark with a matched publication/+24h price pair.

    Price series: Tanker rates · Unavailable. The directional call is included. The original card does not specify a unique tradeable instrument, contract or benchmark with a matched publication/+24h price pair.

    Price 1 · at publication

    Exact endpoint: 05 Oct 2026, 13:38:08 SGT

    UNVERIFIED endpoint price

    No exact source quote has been verified for this endpoint.

    The exact price type has not been verified.

    Price 2 · exactly +24 hours

    Exact endpoint: 06 Oct 2026, 13:38:08 SGT

    UNVERIFIED endpoint price

    No exact source quote has been verified for this endpoint.

    The exact price type has not been verified.

    Change not scored: both exact endpoint prices are required. The directional call is included. The original card does not specify a unique tradeable instrument, contract or benchmark with a matched publication/+24h price pair.

    Correction: Owner-requested full recalculation using nearest available intraday prices and disclosed offsets; includes previously settled calls. The previous result remains in the immutable assessment history.

  • Tanker ratesBULLISH ? UNVERIFIABLE
    Price 1: UNVERIFIED
    At publication: 05 Oct 2026, 13:38:08 SGT
    Price 2 (+24h): UNVERIFIED
    At +24h: 06 Oct 2026, 13:38:08 SGT
    Change: not scored    First published through Sites: 05 Oct 2026, 13:38:08 SGT
    Call and evidence

    BULLISH ON CONFIRMATION (Brent/WTI and tanker-risk pricing if transit disruption worsens); BEARISH ON CONFIRMATION (Brent/WTI and tanker-risk pricing if normal commercial transits recover after conditions are implemented). No one-way trade view.

    The directional call is included. The original card does not specify a unique tradeable instrument, contract or benchmark with a matched publication/+24h price pair.

    Price series: Tanker rates · Unavailable. The directional call is included. The original card does not specify a unique tradeable instrument, contract or benchmark with a matched publication/+24h price pair.

    Price 1 · at publication

    Exact endpoint: 05 Oct 2026, 13:38:08 SGT

    UNVERIFIED endpoint price

    No exact source quote has been verified for this endpoint.

    The exact price type has not been verified.

    Price 2 · exactly +24 hours

    Exact endpoint: 06 Oct 2026, 13:38:08 SGT

    UNVERIFIED endpoint price

    No exact source quote has been verified for this endpoint.

    The exact price type has not been verified.

    Change not scored: both exact endpoint prices are required. The directional call is included. The original card does not specify a unique tradeable instrument, contract or benchmark with a matched publication/+24h price pair.

    Correction: Owner-requested full recalculation using nearest available intraday prices and disclosed offsets; includes previously settled calls. The previous result remains in the immutable assessment history.

What changed

Recorded public history

Iran said normal passage through Hormuz depends on seven conditions and could return within seven days if they are met. Reuters reported…

This is the first recorded public view. Further public updates will appear here.

  1. Hormuz passage depends on seven conditions

    Iran said normal passage through Hormuz depends on seven conditions and could return within seven days if they are met. Reuters reported that the dispute is about the order of steps; the sequence matters, but talks could still fail or the conditions could change.

    First published by OTR: 5 Oct, 13:38 SGTPublished by OTR: 5 Oct 2026, 13:38 SGT
    Iran says Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until conditions are met ↗Iran says Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until its conditions are met ↗

Why the view changed

This is the first recorded view. Future source-backed updates will appear here.

Evidence, memory & review 2 linked sources

Named assets or actors: Brent and WTI, LNG, Tanker rates, Gulf importers and exporters

Directional takeaway: BULLISH ON CONFIRMATION (Brent/WTI and tanker-risk pricing if transit disruption worsens); BEARISH ON CONFIRMATION (Brent/WTI and tanker-risk pricing if normal commercial transits recover after conditions are implemented). No one-way trade view.

OTR reasoning: Diplomatic sequencing can change shipping expectations before a formal settlement.

Counterpoint: Talks may break down, conditions may expand, or security incidents may overwhelm the proposed sequence.

Source-grounded facts (paraphrased)

  • Time not supplied: Reuters published at 07:59:07 UTC on 4 October that Iran tied normal reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to seven conditions linked to an earlier memorandum. Iran said a proposal could restore normal passage within seven days if the conditions are met; Reuters described the remaining dispute as one of sequencing and noted Qatar was carrying messages. Source records: GEN-20261005-HORMUZ-CONDITIONAL-SEQUENCING-SRC-1, GEN-20261005-HORMUZ-CONDITIONAL-SEQUENCING-SRC-2

Source trail

Review status: PASS WITH ATTRIBUTION AND COUNTERCASE

No score or probability is presented.