{"schema_version":3,"run":{"id":"OTR-PRED-2026-07-23-1012-SGT","lockedAt":"23 Jul 2026 · 10:12 SGT","predictionCount":5,"researchOnly":true},"entry_check_run":{"id":"OTR-ENTRY-CHECK-2026-07-23-1810-SGT","observedAt":"23 Jul 2026 · 18:10 SGT","entryHitCount":1,"policy":"Green requires a verified price inside the locked buy condition and time window.","appendOnly":true},"entry_checks":[{"predictionId":"PRED-2026-07-23-BRN-01","ticker":"BRN","state":"HELD","checkedAt":"23 Jul 2026 · 18:10 SGT","explanation":"The buy window has passed, but the official page did not expose the required end-of-window quote. Green is withheld.","source":{"label":"ICE Futures Europe · Brent crude futures","url":"https://www.ice.com/products/219/Brent-Crude-Futures/data?marketId=6018430&span=1"}},{"predictionId":"PRED-2026-07-23-PSQ-02","ticker":"PSQ","state":"AWAITING WINDOW","checkedAt":"23 Jul 2026 · 18:10 SGT","explanation":"The locked US buy check is at 22:00 SGT. No entry can be recorded before that time."},{"predictionId":"PRED-2026-07-23-XLE-03","ticker":"XLE","state":"AWAITING WINDOW","checkedAt":"23 Jul 2026 · 18:10 SGT","explanation":"The locked US buy check is at 22:00 SGT. No entry can be recorded before that time."},{"predictionId":"PRED-2026-07-23-ES3-04","ticker":"ES3","state":"HELD","checkedAt":"23 Jul 2026 · 18:10 SGT","explanation":"The buy window has passed, but the official page still showed the 22 July close. Green is withheld.","source":{"label":"State Street · ES3 official fund page","url":"https://www.ssga.com/sg/en/institutional/etfs/state-street-spdr-straits-times-index-etf-es3"}},{"predictionId":"PRED-2026-07-23-TBF-05","ticker":"TBF","state":"AWAITING WINDOW","checkedAt":"23 Jul 2026 · 18:10 SGT","explanation":"The locked US buy check is at 22:00 SGT. No entry can be recorded before that time."}],"audience":"Singapore Secondary 3","disclaimer":"Paper test only. BUY and SELL are test records. They are not personal financial advice.","plain_terms":{"invalidation":"The event that stops entry or proves the prediction wrong.","grade_rule":"The fixed rule used to decide the result.","entry_hit":"A verified paper entry that passed the locked price and time condition. It is not a profit or recommendation."},"required_fields":["forecast","buyTiming","buyCondition","sellTiming","sellCondition","invalidation","gradeRule"],"predictions":[{"id":"PRED-2026-07-23-BRN-01","asset":"Brent crude","ticker":"BRN","direction":"BULLISH","forecast":"Brent stays above $92 and ends the test above the $94.07 starting price.","reference":"$94.07 · 22 Jul verified close","buyTiming":"23 Jul 2026 · 14:00-14:30 SGT","buyCondition":"Paper BUY only if a verified quote is at or above $92 at the end of the entry window.","sellTiming":"24 Jul 2026 · 10:00 SGT","sellCondition":"Paper SELL at the first checked price. Sell earlier if the move reaches +3% or -2% from entry.","invalidation":"No entry if Brent is below $92 when the buy window closes.","gradeRule":"Correct if the sell price is above the buy price. Otherwise it is wrong. NO ENTRY is recorded separately.","confidence":"Medium-high","status":"LOCKED · AWAITING ENTRY","sources":[{"label":"AP · 22 July US close","url":"https://apnews.com/article/207dfa55d180fcc565420454178168c5"},{"label":"Reuters · Oil and Treasury yields","url":"https://www.livemint.com/market/twoyear-yields-hit-17-month-high-on-oil-surge-fed-fears-11784747663470.html"}]},{"id":"PRED-2026-07-23-PSQ-02","asset":"Fund that rises when Nasdaq-100 falls","ticker":"PSQ","direction":"BULLISH","forecast":"PSQ should rise if technology shares stay under pressure from costly oil and higher interest rates.","reference":"Nasdaq Composite 25,690.90 · -0.6% on 22 Jul","buyTiming":"23 Jul 2026 · 21:45-22:00 SGT","buyCondition":"Paper BUY PSQ only if the Nasdaq Composite remains below 25,690.90 after the first 15 minutes of US trading.","sellTiming":"24 Jul 2026 · 03:45-04:00 SGT","sellCondition":"Paper SELL in the final 15 minutes. Sell earlier if the move reaches +2% or -1.5% from entry.","invalidation":"No entry if the Nasdaq Composite reclaims 25,690.90 before 22:00 SGT.","gradeRule":"Correct if PSQ's sell price is above its buy price. Otherwise it is wrong. NO ENTRY is recorded separately.","confidence":"Medium","status":"LOCKED · AWAITING ENTRY","sources":[{"label":"AP · 22 July US close","url":"https://apnews.com/article/207dfa55d180fcc565420454178168c5"},{"label":"AP · Major index close","url":"https://apnews.com/article/87e0cd1ef1994f0fcbfb8f025064f64f"}]},{"id":"PRED-2026-07-23-XLE-03","asset":"US energy equities","ticker":"XLE","direction":"BULLISH","forecast":"US energy shares should perform better than the Nasdaq while Brent stays above $92.","reference":"Brent $94.07 · Nasdaq -0.6%","buyTiming":"23 Jul 2026 · 21:45-22:00 SGT","buyCondition":"Paper BUY XLE only if Brent is still at or above $92 and XLE's first 15-minute close is not below its prior close.","sellTiming":"24 Jul 2026 · 03:45-04:00 SGT","sellCondition":"Paper SELL in the final 15 minutes. Sell earlier if the move reaches +2.5% or -1.5% from entry.","invalidation":"No entry if Brent falls below $92 or XLE fails the first-15-minute condition.","gradeRule":"Correct if XLE rises more, or falls less, than the Nasdaq between the same buy and sell times.","confidence":"Medium-high","status":"LOCKED · AWAITING ENTRY","sources":[{"label":"AP · 22 July US close","url":"https://apnews.com/article/207dfa55d180fcc565420454178168c5"},{"label":"Reuters · Oil and Treasury yields","url":"https://www.livemint.com/market/twoyear-yields-hit-17-month-high-on-oil-surge-fed-fears-11784747663470.html"}]},{"id":"PRED-2026-07-23-ES3-04","asset":"Singapore equities","ticker":"ES3","direction":"BULLISH","forecast":"The SPDR STI fund should end the next Singapore session above its paper entry price.","reference":"STI +0.5% in the verified 22 Jul Asia session","buyTiming":"23 Jul 2026 · 15:30-16:00 SGT","buyCondition":"Paper BUY only if ES3 is no more than 0.5% below its 22 July official close at 16:00 SGT.","sellTiming":"24 Jul 2026 · 16:45-17:00 SGT","sellCondition":"Paper SELL near the close. Sell earlier if the move reaches +1.5% or -1.0% from entry.","invalidation":"No entry if ES3 is more than 0.5% below the 22 July official close at the end of the buy window.","gradeRule":"Correct if the sell price is above the buy price. Otherwise it is wrong. NO ENTRY is recorded separately.","confidence":"Medium","status":"LOCKED · AWAITING ENTRY","sources":[{"label":"Investing.com · 22 July Asia session","url":"https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/asia-stocks-climb-on-tech-gains-kospi-surges-5-middle-east-tensions-simmer-4781497"},{"label":"SGX My Gateway · STI flows and earnings calendar","url":"https://sginvestors.io/sgx-mygateway/2026/07/sti-hits-record-high-as-earnings-season-begins"}]},{"id":"PRED-2026-07-23-TBF-05","asset":"Fund that rises when long US bonds fall","ticker":"TBF","direction":"BULLISH","forecast":"TBF should rise if the US 10-year interest rate stays at or above 4.60% during the US session.","reference":"US 10-year yield about 4.65% · 22 Jul close","buyTiming":"23 Jul 2026 · 21:45-22:00 SGT","buyCondition":"Paper BUY TBF only if the verified US 10-year yield is at or above 4.60% at 22:00 SGT.","sellTiming":"24 Jul 2026 · 03:45-04:00 SGT","sellCondition":"Paper SELL in the final 15 minutes. Sell earlier if the move reaches +1.5% or -1.0% from entry.","invalidation":"No entry if the US 10-year yield is below 4.60% when the buy window closes.","gradeRule":"Correct if TBF's sell price is above its buy price. Otherwise it is wrong. NO ENTRY is recorded separately.","confidence":"Medium-high","status":"LOCKED · AWAITING ENTRY","sources":[{"label":"Reuters · Oil and Treasury yields","url":"https://www.livemint.com/market/twoyear-yields-hit-17-month-high-on-oil-surge-fed-fears-11784747663470.html"},{"label":"AP · 22 July US close","url":"https://apnews.com/article/207dfa55d180fcc565420454178168c5"}]}]}