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This is not a test of the original one-basis-point target and the rule was not selected to improve this result.","id":"HISTORICAL_DATA","state":"REVIEWED_NO_CALIBRATED_EDGE"},{"evidence_file":"historical_lifecycle.json","finding":"The 173 legacy records and founder 56 right / 35 wrong aggregate retain their original scope. They are not individual Bitcoin calibration data.","id":"OTR_HISTORICAL_DATA","state":"REVIEWED_SEPARATE_COHORTS"},{"evidence_file":"actual-prediction-outcomes.json","finding":"The previous bullish BTC experiment missed its original strictly-greater-than0.01% target: exact eligible minute close 78959.94 versus entry 79838.845. The server recorded MISS. The new bearish observation neither rewrites that call nor proves an improved rule.","id":"OTR_LEARNING_DATA","state":"REVIEWED_ACTUAL_ORIGINAL_RULE_MISS"},{"evidence_file":"historical_intelligence.json","finding":"The 172 saved historical measured windows remain evidence of observed association under their original methods. Current hourly context cannot fill missing five-minute windows or create causal prediction skill.","id":"OTR_GRAPH_LEARNING_DATA","state":"REVIEWED_ASSOCIATION_ONLY"},{"evidence_file":"historical_intelligence.json","finding":"Prior capacity-versus-delivery themes and current agreement-versus-execution distinctions are descriptive context. No independently calibrated theme weight or probability uplift is supported.","id":"OTR_MARKET_THEME_PATTERN_DATA","state":"REVIEWED_DESCRIPTIVE_CONTINUITY"},{"evidence_file":"research.json","finding":"Current primary reports contain competing demand, financing, capacity and execution conditions. Singapore capital raising without a sustained aftermarket rally and German weak output alongside a small three-month gain caution against a single broad risk direction. They do not establish a Bitcoin price target.","id":"INTERNET_MARKET_THEME_DATA","sources":[{"article_id":"01c89f3e795a40c7e1df0d0b40f9df4187eda982285a5396327317b1692d43b1","published_at":"2026-09-06T21:03:14.000Z","receipt_sha256":"1bdfe99d77e2b693b56a1bcd32649f0a59aa4b94cedeff947f98cbba10185781","source_url":"https://www.aljazeera.net/ebusiness/2026/9/7/الأردن-يفتح-مسارا-جديدا-لإمداد-لبنان"},{"article_id":"26607d0973a371d552c7db0ac7df2d10528fdd05ce08114e622c6e15f2de7f2b","published_at":"2026-09-07T10:18:00.000Z","receipt_sha256":"1a3fc87083d1b135bc06ff92ae66d8216d0d5bd479956be59cd927f2436e79b2","source_url":"https://www.ansa.it/sito/notizie/economia/2026/09/07/accordo-eni-petronas-per-testare-biobenzine-nelle-gare-automobilistiche_dd7c6c51-1490-462e-b5d7-c032eb2f9f13.html"},{"article_id":"7e9d2d295cd8aa7ee7b67376c42ec35e652cd23808d327eee88db7e5cf5eb12a","published_at":"2026-09-07T04:02:06.000Z","receipt_sha256":"af0e9b9ec7dad9cf121070a5f0f3e608c56fca2d724afb02c9f961e97f45601d","source_url":"https://www.thaipbs.or.th/news/content/557546"},{"article_id":"90841cdb93a6083db996e284aa4c35a7d0df2fade5f6ce5b2e0cb2dc90ad2c6d","published_at":"2026-09-07T12:14:36.000Z","receipt_sha256":"3f1e7c6ff1656c18ee6232664271773ae670597f57cc9ee8ec20a4848ae06d9f","source_url":"https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/ai-job-market-nus-ministerial-forum-ong-ye-kung-6366591"},{"article_id":"a80a28c3121db68a939bb452bac37401e0f8a1ab8457d0c91e2c5d8bb0b763b0","published_at":"2026-09-07T04:16:17.000Z","receipt_sha256":"cf3dc2364bf01300a863d845fb9a07e06631a565031c78e93c5517a576e08e9e","source_url":"https://www.prothomalo.com/amp/story/bangladesh/25zt29q71y"},{"article_id":"bf6ee5d6e13047d78a4127f280d08f1577ac1a1efa524af28503ae528068516b","published_at":"2026-09-07T11:12:44.000Z","receipt_sha256":"45a45f3382a53599215b4726f4274bfc4c07835daab1d79ca68275af6177edda","source_url":"https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/haze-singapore-moderate-unhealthy-psi-advisory-nea-sep-8-6366266"},{"article_id":"c2f2b8ce0e84717580bdb99336c557ca2b0f4991fb61510416ac7b78caa6bca0","published_at":"2026-09-07T14:19:41.000Z","receipt_sha256":"87c805d034744af524e53263041e02e0f23385543f322fb8c861bfb9d90568f5","source_url":"https://efe.com/euro-efe/2026-09-07/ce-acuerdo-inversion-groenlandia/"},{"article_id":"f631944d746d6e19828d534db1761bfee8c7e0023ed4af1f2ce737f220c43477","published_at":"2026-09-06T22:00:00.000Z","receipt_sha256":"3ba7cdb48f334ac7a981b2df6a9f0a9a56c7b190e61dcd9c4d22228719b3349f","source_url":"https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/singapore-sgx-ipo-hong-kong-malaysia-6359571"},{"article_id":"f9b50da16c35c5650d3b540c008461054bb1a1a66131cfc5a5ec242f83529733","published_at":"2026-09-07T08:16:01.945Z","receipt_sha256":"635b3750d2d955d88778d3414b4c8fcf511ad7dccd3d0d24fddd99149af6cd59","source_url":"https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/finanzen/marktberichte/marktbericht-dax-dow-jones-oel-100.html"}],"state":"REVIEWED_COMPETING_CONDITIONS"}],"entry_midpoint":78893.86499999999,"entry_quote":{"ask":78895.86,"bid":78891.87,"quote_time_semantics":"Coinbase ticker time is the last trade time, used as a freshness check; bid and ask are the response snapshot captured at retrieval.","quote_time_utc":"2026-09-07T16:34:12.179539433Z","raw_sha256":"9950f1852c4942a6170e8a27a23a23b4598d48e1451710ea1d0b543b92af9815","retrieved_at_utc":"2026-09-07T16:34:13.411Z","source_url":"https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/ticker"},"estimated_probability":null,"falsifier":"The new call is wrong unless the exact predeclared completed Coinbase minute close shows a fall strictly greater than 0.01% from the actual server-captured entry midpoint. Use the first whole minute opening at or after the exact 20-hour deadline, only after completion. Missing exact evidence remains unscored under original 72-hour retries.","issuance_state":"PROPOSAL_NOT_ISSUED","issued_at_utc":"2026-09-07T16:34:13.411Z","latest_pulse":{"asset":"BTC","bar_count":600,"boundary":"Current completed-hour review derived from saved 600-bar closure. Not an issue quote or calibrated edge; source receipts preserve all three segments.","bytes":12101,"cutoff_utc":"2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z","direction":"BEARISH","http":200,"latest_complete_close":78812.79,"raw_path":"raw/coinbase-btc-candles-2-b56f973ab730.json","requested_at_utc":"2026-09-07T16:13:48.692Z","retrieved_at_utc":"2026-09-07T16:13:49.141Z","returns_percent":{"4":-0.7509715822349494,"20":-1.2741954839522673},"rule":"Unchanged predeclared 20h direction only when 4h agrees","sha256":"b56f973ab730e5d0c09807fda96fd023860cae85bd6e2f40c1338e1ab17cd421","source_receipts":[{"asset":"BTC","bytes":12141,"content_type":"application/json; charset=utf-8","final_url":"https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles?granularity=3600&start=2026-08-13T16:00:00.000Z&end=2026-08-22T00:00:00.000Z","http":200,"kind":"PRIMARY_HOURLY_SERIES","name":"coinbase-btc-candles-0","path":"raw/coinbase-btc-candles-0-460998fd5f0a.json","requested_at_utc":"2026-09-07T16:13:48.491Z","retrieved_at_utc":"2026-09-07T16:13:48.934Z","server_date":"Mon, 07 Sep 2026 16:14:00 GMT","sha256":"460998fd5f0a383ef4e014e4a8cc456f8e0b0f445be4bc7bd32a23631427d6ef","state":"FETCHED","url":"https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles?granularity=3600&start=2026-08-13T16:00:00.000Z&end=2026-08-22T00:00:00.000Z"},{"asset":"BTC","bytes":12177,"content_type":"application/json; charset=utf-8","final_url":"https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles?granularity=3600&start=2026-08-22T00:00:00.000Z&end=2026-08-30T08:00:00.000Z","http":200,"kind":"PRIMARY_HOURLY_SERIES","name":"coinbase-btc-candles-1","path":"raw/coinbase-btc-candles-1-6ac8c10a8548.json","requested_at_utc":"2026-09-07T16:13:48.563Z","retrieved_at_utc":"2026-09-07T16:13:49.804Z","server_date":"Mon, 07 Sep 2026 16:14:01 GMT","sha256":"6ac8c10a85482255f9c3df91b02f6f76f1ed720173644817cd663c3bd4ee3a0a","state":"FETCHED","url":"https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles?granularity=3600&start=2026-08-22T00:00:00.000Z&end=2026-08-30T08:00:00.000Z"},{"asset":"BTC","bytes":12101,"content_type":"application/json; charset=utf-8","final_url":"https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles?granularity=3600&start=2026-08-30T08:00:00.000Z&end=2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z","http":200,"kind":"PRIMARY_HOURLY_SERIES","name":"coinbase-btc-candles-2","path":"raw/coinbase-btc-candles-2-b56f973ab730.json","requested_at_utc":"2026-09-07T16:13:48.692Z","retrieved_at_utc":"2026-09-07T16:13:49.141Z","server_date":"Mon, 07 Sep 2026 16:14:00 GMT","sha256":"b56f973ab730e5d0c09807fda96fd023860cae85bd6e2f40c1338e1ab17cd421","state":"FETCHED","url":"https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles?granularity=3600&start=2026-08-30T08:00:00.000Z&end=2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z"}],"url":"https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles?granularity=3600&start=2026-08-30T08:00:00.000Z&end=2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z"},"numeric_target":78885.97561349999,"official_ledger_included":false,"opposition":"The previous bullish experiment is an actual original-rule MISS. The latest sign-only diagnostic matched 11/19; it does not validate the exact target or an out-of-sample edge. Momentum can reverse and ETH/SOL are correlated comparisons.","outcome_rule":{"description":"Entry is a fresh Coinbase best-bid/best-ask midpoint at actual server issuance. Review due is exactly 20 hours later. Use the close of the Coinbase 60-second candle opening at the first whole minute at or after the deadline, after that candle completes. A fall strictly greater than 0.01% is right for a bearish call; a rise strictly greater than 0.01% is right for a bullish call. Smaller moves, flat prices and opposite moves are wrong. No alternative bar or venue may substitute. Missing exact candles are retried for 72 hours, then remain unscored and unverifiable. Later retrieval time is recorded separately from observation time.","horizon_seconds":72000,"id":"COINBASE-L1-TO-EXACT-60S-CLOSE-20H-1BP-V1","retrieval_retry_hours":72,"threshold_fraction":0.0001},"outcome_rule_binding":"Bind the exact live Admin immutable rule before actual server issuance; no old contract is replaced.","prediction_id":"complete-2026-09-08-c173-btc","preparation_state":"CURRENT_FIXED_RULE_PROPOSAL_NOT_ISSUED","research_cutoff_utc":"2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z","research_limit":"Same predeclared rule and preselected instrument; no fitted threshold, calibrated probability or automatic confidence increase.","research_run_id":"replay-2026-09-08-1dbefaa2","result":"PENDING","rule_declaration_sha256":"86b5c1224d30b6f9aca0aecf23b01c5389a2587d8255dae8bf7ef595088b968c","source_receipts":[{"asset":"BTC","bytes":12141,"content_type":"application/json; charset=utf-8","final_url":"https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles?granularity=3600&start=2026-08-13T16:00:00.000Z&end=2026-08-22T00:00:00.000Z","http":200,"kind":"PRIMARY_HOURLY_SERIES","name":"coinbase-btc-candles-0","path":"raw/coinbase-btc-candles-0-460998fd5f0a.json","requested_at_utc":"2026-09-07T16:13:48.491Z","retrieved_at_utc":"2026-09-07T16:13:48.934Z","server_date":"Mon, 07 Sep 2026 16:14:00 GMT","sha256":"460998fd5f0a383ef4e014e4a8cc456f8e0b0f445be4bc7bd32a23631427d6ef","state":"FETCHED","url":"https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles?granularity=3600&start=2026-08-13T16:00:00.000Z&end=2026-08-22T00:00:00.000Z"},{"asset":"BTC","bytes":12177,"content_type":"application/json; charset=utf-8","final_url":"https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles?granularity=3600&start=2026-08-22T00:00:00.000Z&end=2026-08-30T08:00:00.000Z","http":200,"kind":"PRIMARY_HOURLY_SERIES","name":"coinbase-btc-candles-1","path":"raw/coinbase-btc-candles-1-6ac8c10a8548.json","requested_at_utc":"2026-09-07T16:13:48.563Z","retrieved_at_utc":"2026-09-07T16:13:49.804Z","server_date":"Mon, 07 Sep 2026 16:14:01 GMT","sha256":"6ac8c10a85482255f9c3df91b02f6f76f1ed720173644817cd663c3bd4ee3a0a","state":"FETCHED","url":"https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles?granularity=3600&start=2026-08-22T00:00:00.000Z&end=2026-08-30T08:00:00.000Z"},{"asset":"BTC","bytes":12101,"content_type":"application/json; charset=utf-8","final_url":"https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles?granularity=3600&start=2026-08-30T08:00:00.000Z&end=2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z","http":200,"kind":"PRIMARY_HOURLY_SERIES","name":"coinbase-btc-candles-2","path":"raw/coinbase-btc-candles-2-b56f973ab730.json","requested_at_utc":"2026-09-07T16:13:48.692Z","retrieved_at_utc":"2026-09-07T16:13:49.141Z","server_date":"Mon, 07 Sep 2026 16:14:00 GMT","sha256":"b56f973ab730e5d0c09807fda96fd023860cae85bd6e2f40c1338e1ab17cd421","state":"FETCHED","url":"https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles?granularity=3600&start=2026-08-30T08:00:00.000Z&end=2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z"}],"supporting_measurements":{"latest_pulse_cutoff":"2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z","latest_pulse_returns_percent":{"4":-0.7509715822349494,"20":-1.2741954839522673}},"thesis":"The unchanged rule follows the latest completed 20-hour direction only when the 4-hour sign agrees. Both are negative at 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z. BTC remains the sole preselected prospective experiment; current headlines do not provide a causal Bitcoin target.","title":"BTC 20-hour uncalibrated research experiment"}]