{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "record_type": "APPEND_ONLY_RESOLUTION",
  "contract_id": "OTR-C120-ONE-PREDICTION-THREE-PROBABILITY-FRAMEWORKS-V1",
  "release_id": "OTR-C120-20260902-210016-SGT",
  "prediction_id": "OTR-C120-20260902-210016-SGT:ETH",
  "forecast_receipt_hash": "c08b6b373880f2681f9037ce218504c6014ed9b4a49f0849cce3fe5a58779dca",
  "driver_bundle_hash": "4370b29983e709ef843d5638b75776772d0ec375a7b2cc374d6c8dfd6723f0f1",
  "frozen_prediction": {
    "instrument_name": "Ethereum",
    "canonical_ticker": "ETH",
    "direction": "BEARISH",
    "final_probability": 0.56,
    "entry_price_public": 2377.38,
    "publication_timestamp": "2026-09-02T13:00:16.749Z",
    "resolve_deadline": "2026-09-03T09:00:16.749Z",
    "maximum_resolution_lag_milliseconds": 600000,
    "flat_tolerance": 0.0005,
    "price_method_id": "COINBASE-L1-MIDPOINT-C120-V1",
    "resolution_method": "First complete Coinbase five-minute candle whose open is at or after T1; completion must occur within the declared 600-second alignment lag."
  },
  "resolution_rule": "FIRST_COMPLETE_COINBASE_FIVE_MINUTE_CANDLE_WITH_OPEN_AT_OR_AFTER_T1_AND_COMPLETION_WITHIN_FROZEN_600_SECOND_LAG",
  "primary_observation": {
    "provider": "Coinbase Exchange",
    "url": "https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/ETH-USD/candles?granularity=300&start=2026-09-03T09%3A05%3A00.000Z&end=2026-09-03T09%3A15%3A00.000Z",
    "http_status": 200,
    "retrieved_at": "2026-09-03T17:44:49.000Z",
    "row": [
      1788426300,
      2400.31,
      2404.18,
      2401.87,
      2403.52,
      114.32200494
    ],
    "row_sha256": "2142638557b1ad63ef1b3d4d6cb1bee210742049efd0f43ee372c12c8b967b47",
    "candle_open_timestamp": "2026-09-03T09:05:00.000Z",
    "resolve_timestamp": "2026-09-03T09:10:00.000Z",
    "resolve_price": 2403.52
  },
  "independent_confirmation": {
    "provider": "Kraken",
    "url": "https://api.kraken.com/0/public/OHLC?pair=ETHUSD&interval=5&since=1788426300",
    "http_status": 200,
    "retrieved_at": "2026-09-03T17:44:50.000Z",
    "row": [
      1788426300,
      "2401.87",
      "2404.10",
      "2399.93",
      "2403.63",
      "2402.46",
      "39.19900424",
      158
    ],
    "row_sha256": "ca920f4580f07323301e2f5f2af62af62ac7b6c486969cf0e8d32acc21af9497",
    "resolve_price": 2403.63,
    "source_disagreement_bps": 0.457662
  },
  "determination": {
    "outcome_state": "UP_VALID",
    "result": "MISS",
    "raw_return": 0.01099529734413518,
    "raw_return_percent": 1.099529734413518,
    "net_estimated_return": 0.00959529734413518,
    "flat_tolerance_cleared": true,
    "directional_result_unambiguous_at_public_entry_precision": true
  },
  "precision_boundary_note": "The immutable public receipt exposes the entry to two decimals. Every entry value that rounds to USD 2,377.38 produces the same UP_VALID and MISS determination by a margin far larger than the frozen 0.05% flat tolerance.",
  "learning_event_types": [
    "OUTCOME_RESOLVED",
    "KOLMOGOROV_OUTCOME_AUDIT",
    "BAYESIAN_SCORE_APPEND",
    "DEFINETTI_PREQUENTIAL_APPEND"
  ],
  "original_prediction_unchanged": true,
  "audited_at": "2026-09-04T01:37:00+08:00",
  "artifact_sha256": "f9dafde1b463dd6943f8ea174eaa3d4ad607da75782740182ee5853001cf62ac"
}