[{"asset":"BTC","brief_sha256":"84bdf5cd0ae925cda26e9e7464344fb03182a522f5ffd1547e0bb712127bfd86","cohort":"C170 prospective experimental research","currency":"USD","current_article_sources":[{"article_id":"55e8abbc80f9b3927ddece39afacf77cf7e9137342f618d86c11edc1808db529","published_at":"2026-09-06T12:58:06.000Z","receipt_sha256":"adbb7ac4b64222e2ad77ce16bfe29d00685fd0528d04252d64bdc41a671951dd","source_url":"https://www.aljazeera.net/ebusiness/2026/9/6/أوبك-بلس-يبقي-حصص-إنتاج-النفط-دون"},{"article_id":"b94cd90faa82d145cc2d20f2a2d4bf7c06845e81301c98ccc30c9f42130a1c8b","published_at":"2026-09-06T09:59:00.000Z","receipt_sha256":"1bd5cbe7be96e1b579e3ef9beebe0bed625e2e82467e1b66f36001c1c34436f2","source_url":"https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/travel-chaos-changi-airport-soekarno-hatta-volcano-6365516"},{"article_id":"df817370870d7aad8971052e5d7ccb3e078289611ebe1cd924fb6b9263964fe7","published_at":"2026-09-06T13:57:49.000Z","receipt_sha256":"4ed61893aeed5a255a7729abd40d2dc21366585231541749430c7fcb49d94add","source_url":"https://hindi.business-standard.com/latest-news/gst-council-meeting-postponed-now-likely-to-be-held-on-october-7-id-549850"},{"article_id":"25cd9af1fc3202733bc2b71885d66fff3d74a86f91d9879481e77f192a7ac0a8","published_at":"2026-09-06T12:24:00.000Z","receipt_sha256":"578278f6fbd8d97d6550a24dd4ea0d2e1af8a6a6cbf09b41ea465c290e1a5642","source_url":"https://www.donga.com/news/Economy/article/all/20260906/134613274/1"}],"deadline_at_utc":"2026-09-07T15:29:06.600Z","diagnostic":{"directional_samples":19,"limitation":"The original fixed rule is rechecked on a sliding short sample. This is sign-only exploratory analysis, not prior issuance, a one-basis-point-target backtest, independent asset trials or calibrated probability.","matched_direction":6,"scheduled_samples":28},"direction":"BULLISH","eight_considerations":[{"evidence_file":"preissue-pulse.json","finding":"At the completed 19:00Z hour, BTC four-hour return was +0.507150625% and twenty-hour return +0.189885070%. The unchanged rule now indicates bullish, reversing the negative agreement observed at 18:00Z. This is a current directional observation, not a calibrated edge. Actual entry must be a fresh server-captured L1 midpoint.","id":"LIVE_MARKET_PULSE","receipt":{"asset":"BTC","bar_count":22,"boundary":"Fresh completed-hour pulse only; not entry quote or a new calibrated diagnostic. Historical 17:00Z study is preserved.","bytes":1365,"cutoff_utc":"2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z","direction":"BULLISH","http":200,"latest_complete_close":79941.88,"raw_path":"preissue-raw/BTC-d0b925beb875102a45bb35defbdcf71e4b5e2f15e4a517e5ed23fd22165c7780.json","requested_at_utc":"2026-09-06T19:07:32.006Z","retrieved_at_utc":"2026-09-06T19:07:32.581Z","returns_percent":{"4":0.5071506251689506,"20":0.18988507009054523},"rule":"Unchanged predeclared 20h direction only when 4h agrees","sha256":"d0b925beb875102a45bb35defbdcf71e4b5e2f15e4a517e5ed23fd22165c7780","url":"https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles?granularity=3600&start=2026-09-05T21:00:00.000Z&end=2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z"},"state":"REVIEWED_FRESH_COMPLETED_HOUR_DIRECTION_REVERSED"},{"evidence_file":"../research/cloud/current.json","finding":"The current original stories describe oil-route constraints, volcanic transport disruption, a tentative GST meeting change and industrial automation plans. None establishes a Bitcoin-specific catalyst or proves a rise. The proposed direction comes solely from the predeclared market rule, not from a macro illustration or broad theme.","id":"CURRENT_EVENTS","sources":[{"article_id":"55e8abbc80f9b3927ddece39afacf77cf7e9137342f618d86c11edc1808db529","published_at":"2026-09-06T12:58:06.000Z","receipt_sha256":"adbb7ac4b64222e2ad77ce16bfe29d00685fd0528d04252d64bdc41a671951dd","source_url":"https://www.aljazeera.net/ebusiness/2026/9/6/أوبك-بلس-يبقي-حصص-إنتاج-النفط-دون"},{"article_id":"b94cd90faa82d145cc2d20f2a2d4bf7c06845e81301c98ccc30c9f42130a1c8b","published_at":"2026-09-06T09:59:00.000Z","receipt_sha256":"1bd5cbe7be96e1b579e3ef9beebe0bed625e2e82467e1b66f36001c1c34436f2","source_url":"https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/travel-chaos-changi-airport-soekarno-hatta-volcano-6365516"},{"article_id":"df817370870d7aad8971052e5d7ccb3e078289611ebe1cd924fb6b9263964fe7","published_at":"2026-09-06T13:57:49.000Z","receipt_sha256":"4ed61893aeed5a255a7729abd40d2dc21366585231541749430c7fcb49d94add","source_url":"https://hindi.business-standard.com/latest-news/gst-council-meeting-postponed-now-likely-to-be-held-on-october-7-id-549850"},{"article_id":"25cd9af1fc3202733bc2b71885d66fff3d74a86f91d9879481e77f192a7ac0a8","published_at":"2026-09-06T12:24:00.000Z","receipt_sha256":"578278f6fbd8d97d6550a24dd4ea0d2e1af8a6a6cbf09b41ea465c290e1a5642","source_url":"https://www.donga.com/news/Economy/article/all/20260906/134613274/1"}],"state":"REVIEWED_NO_BTC_DIRECTIONAL_CONFIRMATION"},{"evidence_file":"market-evidence.json","finding":"The fixed sliding diagnostic matched 6 of 19 BTC directional cases; it is sign-only exploratory history with no validated predictive probability.","id":"HISTORICAL_DATA","state":"REVIEWED_NO_CALIBRATED_EDGE"},{"evidence_file":"inputs/historical-lifecycle.json","finding":"Founder 91 is an original aggregate with incomplete individual membership; it does not provide a BTC-specific prospective calibration.","id":"OTR_HISTORICAL_DATA","state":"REVIEWED_SCOPE_LIMIT"},{"evidence_file":"lifecycle-review.json","finding":"Original method/evidence gaps remain unscored, and original terminals are excluded from the due queue. This constrains measurement discipline rather than forecasting direction.","id":"OTR_LEARNING_DATA","state":"REVIEWED_EVIDENCE_LIMITS"},{"evidence_file":"inputs/historical-172-recovery.json","finding":"172 original measured windows have saved observations. Association after headlines is not a validated causal or directional prediction model.","id":"OTR_GRAPH_LEARNING_DATA","state":"REVIEWED_ASSOCIATION_ONLY"},{"evidence_file":"inputs/historical-intelligence.json","finding":"Saved theme summaries are descriptive historical observations. No current theme-specific calibrated edge is established by their reuse.","id":"OTR_MARKET_THEME_PATTERN_DATA","state":"REVIEWED_HISTORICAL_SCOPE_ONLY"},{"evidence_file":"../research/cloud/current.json","finding":"The oil report separates quota policy from delivered supply, while the Tehran equity rally illustrates that risk narratives can coexist with rising local assets. These are competing contextual observations, without a numerical BTC probability or a demonstrated causal link.","id":"INTERNET_MARKET_THEME_DATA","sources":[{"article_id":"55e8abbc80f9b3927ddece39afacf77cf7e9137342f618d86c11edc1808db529","published_at":"2026-09-06T12:58:06.000Z","receipt_sha256":"adbb7ac4b64222e2ad77ce16bfe29d00685fd0528d04252d64bdc41a671951dd","source_url":"https://www.aljazeera.net/ebusiness/2026/9/6/أوبك-بلس-يبقي-حصص-إنتاج-النفط-دون"},{"article_id":"fb510f71a85a27ca497da9a98aab0f9f48b2ee64b56dc04c9efb176e5d9e7fa3","published_at":"2026-09-06T14:09:03.000Z","receipt_sha256":"9a36a483be9c7366102c54228fd4f2e8d3bc49920a4f03fe893e8fd8a1bd7a49","source_url":"https://donya-e-eqtesad.com/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%DA%AF%D8%B1%D9%88%D9%87-%D8%A2%D9%86%D9%84%D8%A7%DB%8C%D9%86-%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B2%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%87-%D8%AF%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF-192/4293312-%D8%B5%D8%B9%D9%88%D8%AF-%D8%A8%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%B3-%D8%B9%D9%82%D8%A8-%D9%86%D8%B4%DB%8C%D9%86%DB%8C-%D8%AF%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B1"}],"state":"REVIEWED_MIXED_CONTEXT_NO_CALIBRATED_EDGE"}],"entry_midpoint":79838.845,"entry_quote":{"ask":79838.85,"bid":79838.84,"quote_time_semantics":"Coinbase ticker time is the last trade time, used as a freshness check; bid and ask are the response snapshot captured at retrieval.","quote_time_utc":"2026-09-06T19:29:05.319182312Z","raw_sha256":"233fad9e6f0533a8f1e887a77c752fb3579d84a42a8e1c9005b7e35652fad5f0","retrieved_at_utc":"2026-09-06T19:29:06.600Z","source_url":"https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/ticker"},"estimated_probability":null,"falsifier":"The future bullish call is wrong unless the exact predeclared completed Coinbase minute candle shows a rise strictly greater than 0.01% from the actual fresh L1 entry midpoint. Missing exact evidence remains unscored. The outcome bar is the first whole minute opening at or after the exact 20-hour deadline, observed only after completion; unchanged 72-hour retries apply.","issued_at_utc":"2026-09-06T19:29:06.600Z","latest_pulse":{"asset":"BTC","bar_count":22,"boundary":"Fresh completed-hour pulse only; not entry quote or a new calibrated diagnostic. Historical 17:00Z study is preserved.","bytes":1365,"cutoff_utc":"2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z","direction":"BULLISH","http":200,"latest_complete_close":79941.88,"raw_path":"preissue-raw/BTC-d0b925beb875102a45bb35defbdcf71e4b5e2f15e4a517e5ed23fd22165c7780.json","requested_at_utc":"2026-09-06T19:07:32.006Z","retrieved_at_utc":"2026-09-06T19:07:32.581Z","returns_percent":{"4":0.5071506251689506,"20":0.18988507009054523},"rule":"Unchanged predeclared 20h direction only when 4h agrees","sha256":"d0b925beb875102a45bb35defbdcf71e4b5e2f15e4a517e5ed23fd22165c7780","url":"https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles?granularity=3600&start=2026-09-05T21:00:00.000Z&end=2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z"},"numeric_target":79846.8288845,"official_ledger_included":false,"opposition":"The preserved 17:00Z diagnostic matched only 6 of 19 directional cases and did not test the exact one-basis-point target. Negative agreement at 18:00Z became positive agreement at 19:00Z, showing how quickly this signal can reverse. Current stories provide no BTC-specific upward catalyst. Positive ETH and SOL readings are correlated observations from the same rule family, not independent validation.","outcome_rule":{"description":"Entry is a fresh Coinbase best-bid/best-ask midpoint at actual server issuance. Review due is exactly 20 hours later. Use the close of the Coinbase 60-second candle opening at the first whole minute at or after the deadline, after that candle completes. A fall strictly greater than 0.01% is right for a bearish call; a rise strictly greater than 0.01% is right for a bullish call. Smaller moves, flat prices and opposite moves are wrong. No alternative bar or venue may substitute. Missing exact candles are retried for 72 hours, then remain unscored and unverifiable. Later retrieval time is recorded separately from observation time.","horizon_seconds":72000,"id":"COINBASE-L1-TO-EXACT-60S-CLOSE-20H-1BP-V1","retrieval_retry_hours":72,"threshold_fraction":0.0001},"prediction_id":"complete-2026-09-07-c171-btc","research_cutoff_utc":"2026-09-06T17:00:00+00:00","research_limit":"Fixed method and candidate universe were recorded before this collection. No rule or threshold was selected to improve the observed diagnostic. Contextual Yahoo charts cannot resolve the future call.","research_run_id":"replay-2026-09-07-9fc13b5d","result":"PENDING","rule_declaration_sha256":"86b5c1224d30b6f9aca0aecf23b01c5389a2587d8255dae8bf7ef595088b968c","source_receipts":[{"asset":"BTC","bytes":12149,"content_type":"application/json; charset=utf-8","final_url":"https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles?granularity=3600&start=2026-08-12T17%3A00%3A00%2B00%3A00&end=2026-08-21T01%3A00%3A00%2B00%3A00","http":200,"kind":"PRIMARY_HOURLY_SERIES","name":"coinbase-btc-candles-0","path":"raw/coinbase-btc-candles-0-1d3473343aa7.json","requested_at_utc":"2026-09-06T17:28:33.471095+00:00","retrieved_at_utc":"2026-09-06T17:28:34.756681+00:00","server_date":"Sun, 06 Sep 2026 17:28:34 GMT","sha256":"1d3473343aa7c0828114ae0a36343f2af9425ac5acf9355ee945bb68a5b22ca3","state":"FETCHED","url":"https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles?granularity=3600&start=2026-08-12T17%3A00%3A00%2B00%3A00&end=2026-08-21T01%3A00%3A00%2B00%3A00"},{"asset":"BTC","bytes":12183,"content_type":"application/json; charset=utf-8","final_url":"https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles?granularity=3600&start=2026-08-21T01%3A00%3A00%2B00%3A00&end=2026-08-29T09%3A00%3A00%2B00%3A00","http":200,"kind":"PRIMARY_HOURLY_SERIES","name":"coinbase-btc-candles-1","path":"raw/coinbase-btc-candles-1-29a0694e091c.json","requested_at_utc":"2026-09-06T17:28:33.472101+00:00","retrieved_at_utc":"2026-09-06T17:28:34.103456+00:00","server_date":"Sun, 06 Sep 2026 17:28:34 GMT","sha256":"29a0694e091c4402e1c7858bde5331e1e9454db1884a86e1ddc9c45a20c22225","state":"FETCHED","url":"https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles?granularity=3600&start=2026-08-21T01%3A00%3A00%2B00%3A00&end=2026-08-29T09%3A00%3A00%2B00%3A00"},{"asset":"BTC","bytes":12099,"content_type":"application/json; charset=utf-8","final_url":"https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles?granularity=3600&start=2026-08-29T09%3A00%3A00%2B00%3A00&end=2026-09-06T17%3A00%3A00%2B00%3A00","http":200,"kind":"PRIMARY_HOURLY_SERIES","name":"coinbase-btc-candles-2","path":"raw/coinbase-btc-candles-2-5bbd04c73ec2.json","requested_at_utc":"2026-09-06T17:28:33.473102+00:00","retrieved_at_utc":"2026-09-06T17:28:34.103456+00:00","server_date":"Sun, 06 Sep 2026 17:28:34 GMT","sha256":"5bbd04c73ec2d0de45d775bcad49bbbf0ba81abaed233301e94c66c22ececce9","state":"FETCHED","url":"https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles?granularity=3600&start=2026-08-29T09%3A00%3A00%2B00%3A00&end=2026-09-06T17%3A00%3A00%2B00%3A00"},{"asset":"BTC","bar_count":22,"boundary":"Fresh completed-hour pulse only; not entry quote or a new calibrated diagnostic. Historical 17:00Z study is preserved.","bytes":1370,"cutoff_utc":"2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z","direction":"BEARISH","http":200,"kind":"PRIMARY_SUPERSEDED_PREISSUE_PULSE","latest_complete_close":79741.18,"raw_path":"preissue-raw/BTC-bfdcae01d41de0d5af583d0c2de58632d9255061b21c97754936d637e02ac7b2.json","requested_at_utc":"2026-09-06T18:35:02.052Z","retrieval_time_note":"Original preparer recorded request start, not response completion. Exact response completion was not captured; saved body and hash remain unchanged.","retrieved_at_utc":null,"returns_percent":{"4":-0.10789540572018197,"20":-0.21374764913251187},"rule":"Unchanged predeclared 20h direction only when 4h agrees","sha256":"bfdcae01d41de0d5af583d0c2de58632d9255061b21c97754936d637e02ac7b2","url":"https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles?granularity=3600&start=2026-09-05T20:00:00.000Z&end=2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z"},{"asset":"BTC","bar_count":22,"boundary":"Fresh completed-hour pulse only; not entry quote or a new calibrated diagnostic. Historical 17:00Z study is preserved.","bytes":1365,"cutoff_utc":"2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z","direction":"BULLISH","http":200,"kind":"PRIMARY_CURRENT_PREISSUE_FIXED_RULE_RECHECK","latest_complete_close":79941.88,"raw_path":"preissue-raw/BTC-d0b925beb875102a45bb35defbdcf71e4b5e2f15e4a517e5ed23fd22165c7780.json","requested_at_utc":"2026-09-06T19:07:32.006Z","retrieved_at_utc":"2026-09-06T19:07:32.581Z","returns_percent":{"4":0.5071506251689506,"20":0.18988507009054523},"rule":"Unchanged predeclared 20h direction only when 4h agrees","sha256":"d0b925beb875102a45bb35defbdcf71e4b5e2f15e4a517e5ed23fd22165c7780","url":"https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles?granularity=3600&start=2026-09-05T21:00:00.000Z&end=2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z"}],"supporting_measurements":{"historical_research_cutoff":"2026-09-06T17:00:00Z","latest_pulse_cutoff":"2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z","latest_pulse_returns_percent":{"4":0.5071506251689506,"20":0.18988507009054523},"previous_pulse_cutoff":"2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z","previous_pulse_returns_percent":{"4":-0.10789540572018197,"20":-0.21374764913251187}},"thesis":"The unchanged predeclared rule follows the twenty-hour direction only when the four-hour sign agrees. Both are positive in the completed 19:00Z Coinbase observations. BTC remains the sole preselected uncalibrated prospective experiment. The direction changed since 18:00Z, so the current observation is explicitly unstable and does not establish a reliable edge.","title":"BTC 20-hour uncalibrated research experiment"}]