{
  "schema": "OTR-SIGNALS-LEDGER-SUMMARY-1",
  "basis": "current_testing_cohort_only",
  "notice": "Selected cohort · 24 resolved · withdrawn and cancelled calls excluded. This score describes the included cohort, not all-time accuracy.",
  "inherited": {
    "path": "/data/signals/founder-ledger-history.json",
    "sha256": "0e8b9a3cfaad68b7abf0c3b199477e5a5a4134b5e99f511a0edf0f64d326d6a9",
    "source": {
      "commit_sha": "c1196457a1212715c941d72ebe197f18856dd192",
      "sha256": "4ac77018a8b65b83517a98c35a2f1d83d090193cf6c45b6e1a233bf0b2f6065f",
      "release_id": "OTR-2026-10-08-0100-SGT-R1",
      "updated_at_sgt": "2026-10-02T12:01:26+08:00"
    },
    "totals": {
      "hit": 73,
      "miss": 43,
      "resolved": 116,
      "accuracy": 62.93
    }
  },
  "current": {
    "path": "/data/signals/prediction-ledger.json",
    "cohort_id": "OTR-SIGNALS-20261009-013145Z-RESET-1",
    "reset_at_utc": "2026-10-09T01:31:45.598421Z",
    "as_of_utc": "2026-10-12T03:40:00Z",
    "totals": {
      "total_calls": 114,
      "hit": 21,
      "miss": 3,
      "resolved": 24,
      "pending": 89,
      "flat": 0,
      "unverifiable": 1,
      "accuracy": 87.5
    },
    "withdrawal_exclusions": [
      {
        "withdrawal_id": "OTR-SIGNAL-WITHDRAWAL-HELE-20261009-R1",
        "status": "APPLIED_TO_CURRENT_VIEW_AND_COHORT",
        "signal_id": "INV-20261008-HELE-REFUND-EARNINGS-FADE",
        "call_id": "SCALL-271fcf6d550c131379b690a9",
        "original_record_sha256": "4e86cfb0efb116c4f6c60023ff3656f73cc4f49c97a797e7b5d0c0ff72edf0ec",
        "preserved_call_sha256": "9f109d89e3a3ff869545a0d1ecaa848544e3dbb6f3400d9890c2a589f07e1ed2",
        "preserved_assessment_sha256": "400329a3db9ae216a01392aee8a4958d6b82a5d6c07f62510664260d24bc8fb7",
        "status_at_withdrawal": "MISS",
        "withdrawn_at_utc": "2026-10-09T23:10:22.979Z",
        "removed_from_current_score": true,
        "removed_from_current_view": true,
        "reason": "Owner-directed recoverable exclusion from the displayed current Signals card and testing-score cohort; the original call, MISS result, evidence, frozen issue/deadline and source card remain preserved in historical records."
      },
      {
        "withdrawal_id": "OTR-SIGNAL-WITHDRAWAL-BTC-20261010-R1",
        "status": "APPLIED_TO_CURRENT_VIEW_AND_COHORT",
        "signal_id": "INV-20261009-BTC-ETF-FLOW-REBOUND-TEST",
        "call_id": "SCALL-95a64a3c148fc6f5889e2428",
        "original_record_sha256": "bfba36abccf4c25024d9b86ca7e62bc97214c6439c15e659aec0a5cc3712a9c6",
        "recovered_record_sha256": "b05f7a014f58bc9b412148357bb0033bd5f92e09f58d20e589f4fe84befaccda",
        "preserved_call_sha256": "a8759d13ab60272925ab212b9007d1393c1e8b8ad3df97f170d76d2269c3f682",
        "preserved_assessment_sha256": "2fa83ac7726c5459b894d6ba9cde26062c5109ea91baa016f58fdf1eb1fbbbaa",
        "status_at_withdrawal": "PENDING",
        "withdrawn_at_utc": "2026-10-10T01:04:26.327Z",
        "removed_from_current_score": true,
        "removed_from_current_view": true,
        "reason": "Owner-directed recoverable withdrawal from the active public Signals view and selected testing cohort. The original card, call, prior ledger row, evidence and frozen clocks remain preserved in recoverable history; no scored outcome is shown for this withdrawal."
      },
      {
        "withdrawal_id": "OTR-SIGNAL-WITHDRAWAL-ETH-20261010-R1",
        "status": "APPLIED_TO_CURRENT_VIEW_AND_COHORT",
        "signal_id": "INV-20261009-ETH-ETF-FLOW-REBOUND-TEST",
        "call_id": "SCALL-1a2b1a210079713a963aead0",
        "original_record_sha256": "9490249cdd4902a696eff1716ec19c3a111a2af9e82b2cd9250136f468338ca2",
        "recovered_record_sha256": "b772d8390c60507eb4c21074db36cfd1ac505e3289b0569d554f7b280ee862c2",
        "preserved_call_sha256": "1d542df28afaec0436cf49be6c4659784a549151acca64cbbbda37ae73ee29a3",
        "preserved_assessment_sha256": "47f2d6b3821b0d0545bec0b1c2e15d32543375d8942afb6848544d3814653ba9",
        "status_at_withdrawal": "PENDING",
        "withdrawn_at_utc": "2026-10-10T01:04:26.327Z",
        "removed_from_current_score": true,
        "removed_from_current_view": true,
        "reason": "Owner-directed recoverable withdrawal from the active public Signals view and selected testing cohort. The original card, call, prior ledger row, evidence and frozen clocks remain preserved in recoverable history; no scored outcome is shown for this withdrawal."
      }
    ],
    "market_closed_cancellations": [
      {
        "cancellation_id": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-BATCH-20261010T003331Z:SCALL-6a935972ab86ef67c78aadea",
        "call_id": "SCALL-6a935972ab86ef67c78aadea",
        "signal_id": "PDF-20261008-0821-03-TLT",
        "status": "CANCELLED_MARKET_CLOSED",
        "policy_version": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-HORIZON-CANCELLATION-20261010-1",
        "label": "Market closed at deadline: horizon assessment cancelled and excluded from prediction statistics.",
        "effective_at_utc": "2026-10-10T00:33:31.000Z",
        "applied_at_utc": "2026-10-10T00:41:09.108Z"
      },
      {
        "cancellation_id": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-BATCH-20261010T003331Z:SCALL-aff7986869dc2289e06476ff",
        "call_id": "SCALL-aff7986869dc2289e06476ff",
        "signal_id": "PDF-20261008-0821-04-USO",
        "status": "CANCELLED_MARKET_CLOSED",
        "policy_version": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-HORIZON-CANCELLATION-20261010-1",
        "label": "Market closed at deadline: horizon assessment cancelled and excluded from prediction statistics.",
        "effective_at_utc": "2026-10-10T00:33:31.000Z",
        "applied_at_utc": "2026-10-10T00:41:09.108Z"
      },
      {
        "cancellation_id": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-BATCH-20261010T003331Z:SCALL-cba1b1855a7cc1bfff0c75c4",
        "call_id": "SCALL-cba1b1855a7cc1bfff0c75c4",
        "signal_id": "PDF-20261008-0821-05-XLU",
        "status": "CANCELLED_MARKET_CLOSED",
        "policy_version": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-HORIZON-CANCELLATION-20261010-1",
        "label": "Market closed at deadline: horizon assessment cancelled and excluded from prediction statistics.",
        "effective_at_utc": "2026-10-10T00:33:31.000Z",
        "applied_at_utc": "2026-10-10T00:41:09.108Z"
      },
      {
        "cancellation_id": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-BATCH-20261010T003331Z:SCALL-9363434e3a0e4a7cdea1ce98",
        "call_id": "SCALL-9363434e3a0e4a7cdea1ce98",
        "signal_id": "PDF-20261008-0821-06-META",
        "status": "CANCELLED_MARKET_CLOSED",
        "policy_version": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-HORIZON-CANCELLATION-20261010-1",
        "label": "Market closed at deadline: horizon assessment cancelled and excluded from prediction statistics.",
        "effective_at_utc": "2026-10-10T00:33:31.000Z",
        "applied_at_utc": "2026-10-10T00:41:09.108Z"
      },
      {
        "cancellation_id": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-BATCH-20261010T003331Z:SCALL-73b8fcd55e68078757090e20",
        "call_id": "SCALL-73b8fcd55e68078757090e20",
        "signal_id": "PDF-20261008-0821-07-RDDT",
        "status": "CANCELLED_MARKET_CLOSED",
        "policy_version": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-HORIZON-CANCELLATION-20261010-1",
        "label": "Market closed at deadline: horizon assessment cancelled and excluded from prediction statistics.",
        "effective_at_utc": "2026-10-10T00:33:31.000Z",
        "applied_at_utc": "2026-10-10T00:41:09.108Z"
      },
      {
        "cancellation_id": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-BATCH-20261010T003331Z:SCALL-a87308621c35b95ef6c74d3b",
        "call_id": "SCALL-a87308621c35b95ef6c74d3b",
        "signal_id": "PDF-20261008-0821-10-GOOGL",
        "status": "CANCELLED_MARKET_CLOSED",
        "policy_version": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-HORIZON-CANCELLATION-20261010-1",
        "label": "Market closed at deadline: horizon assessment cancelled and excluded from prediction statistics.",
        "effective_at_utc": "2026-10-10T00:33:31.000Z",
        "applied_at_utc": "2026-10-10T00:41:09.108Z"
      },
      {
        "cancellation_id": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-BATCH-20261010T003331Z:SCALL-25e322bcfab8bce2adc80495",
        "call_id": "SCALL-25e322bcfab8bce2adc80495",
        "signal_id": "PDF-20261008-0821-11-D05",
        "status": "CANCELLED_MARKET_CLOSED",
        "policy_version": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-HORIZON-CANCELLATION-20261010-1",
        "label": "Market closed at deadline: horizon assessment cancelled and excluded from prediction statistics.",
        "effective_at_utc": "2026-10-10T00:33:31.000Z",
        "applied_at_utc": "2026-10-10T00:41:09.108Z"
      },
      {
        "cancellation_id": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-BATCH-20261010T003331Z:SCALL-f833e395471b5e7821599a2c",
        "call_id": "SCALL-f833e395471b5e7821599a2c",
        "signal_id": "PDF-20261008-0821-14-C6L",
        "status": "CANCELLED_MARKET_CLOSED",
        "policy_version": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-HORIZON-CANCELLATION-20261010-1",
        "label": "Market closed at deadline: horizon assessment cancelled and excluded from prediction statistics.",
        "effective_at_utc": "2026-10-10T00:33:31.000Z",
        "applied_at_utc": "2026-10-10T00:41:09.108Z"
      },
      {
        "cancellation_id": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-BATCH-20261010T003331Z:SCALL-090b40d7efdab03a235af33a",
        "call_id": "SCALL-090b40d7efdab03a235af33a",
        "signal_id": "PDF-20261008-0821-16-NVDA",
        "status": "CANCELLED_MARKET_CLOSED",
        "policy_version": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-HORIZON-CANCELLATION-20261010-1",
        "label": "Market closed at deadline: horizon assessment cancelled and excluded from prediction statistics.",
        "effective_at_utc": "2026-10-10T00:33:31.000Z",
        "applied_at_utc": "2026-10-10T00:41:09.108Z"
      },
      {
        "cancellation_id": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-BATCH-20261010T003331Z:SCALL-e79c17e0dadd44a8bc0067cf",
        "call_id": "SCALL-e79c17e0dadd44a8bc0067cf",
        "signal_id": "PDF-20261008-0821-18-AMD",
        "status": "CANCELLED_MARKET_CLOSED",
        "policy_version": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-HORIZON-CANCELLATION-20261010-1",
        "label": "Market closed at deadline: horizon assessment cancelled and excluded from prediction statistics.",
        "effective_at_utc": "2026-10-10T00:33:31.000Z",
        "applied_at_utc": "2026-10-10T00:41:09.108Z"
      },
      {
        "cancellation_id": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-BATCH-20261010T003331Z:SCALL-f6bc1af9c93809f577e7e825",
        "call_id": "SCALL-f6bc1af9c93809f577e7e825",
        "signal_id": "PDF-20261008-0821-20-CEG",
        "status": "CANCELLED_MARKET_CLOSED",
        "policy_version": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-HORIZON-CANCELLATION-20261010-1",
        "label": "Market closed at deadline: horizon assessment cancelled and excluded from prediction statistics.",
        "effective_at_utc": "2026-10-10T00:33:31.000Z",
        "applied_at_utc": "2026-10-10T00:41:09.108Z"
      },
      {
        "cancellation_id": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-DEADLINE-20261010T011500Z:SCALL-7403f1e856e52a112e175c3a",
        "call_id": "SCALL-7403f1e856e52a112e175c3a",
        "signal_id": "RESEARCH-20261008-0915-03",
        "status": "CANCELLED_MARKET_CLOSED",
        "policy_version": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-HORIZON-CANCELLATION-20261010-1",
        "label": "Market closed at deadline: horizon assessment cancelled and excluded from prediction statistics.",
        "effective_at_utc": "2026-10-10T01:15:00Z",
        "applied_at_utc": "2026-10-10T01:34:43.238Z"
      },
      {
        "cancellation_id": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-DEADLINE-20261010T011500Z:SCALL-515a3c2f95e07b3564495146",
        "call_id": "SCALL-515a3c2f95e07b3564495146",
        "signal_id": "RESEARCH-20261008-0915-04",
        "status": "CANCELLED_MARKET_CLOSED",
        "policy_version": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-HORIZON-CANCELLATION-20261010-1",
        "label": "Market closed at deadline: horizon assessment cancelled and excluded from prediction statistics.",
        "effective_at_utc": "2026-10-10T01:15:00Z",
        "applied_at_utc": "2026-10-10T01:34:43.238Z"
      },
      {
        "cancellation_id": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-DEADLINE-20261010T033103Z:SCALL-bffbc3220aadd4d45e25d980",
        "call_id": "SCALL-bffbc3220aadd4d45e25d980",
        "signal_id": "RESEARCH-20261008-PROCEED-04",
        "status": "CANCELLED_MARKET_CLOSED",
        "policy_version": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-HORIZON-CANCELLATION-20261010-1",
        "label": "Market closed at deadline: horizon assessment cancelled and excluded from prediction statistics.",
        "effective_at_utc": "2026-10-10T03:31:03Z",
        "applied_at_utc": "2026-10-10T03:40:12.230Z"
      },
      {
        "cancellation_id": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-DEADLINE-20261010T062440Z:SCALL-8bd41feea817d0e05291032c",
        "call_id": "SCALL-8bd41feea817d0e05291032c",
        "signal_id": "PDF-20261008-1244-APPEND-05",
        "status": "CANCELLED_MARKET_CLOSED",
        "policy_version": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-HORIZON-CANCELLATION-20261010-1",
        "label": "Market closed at deadline: horizon assessment cancelled and excluded from prediction statistics.",
        "effective_at_utc": "2026-10-10T06:24:40.402Z",
        "applied_at_utc": "2026-10-10T06:43:25Z"
      },
      {
        "cancellation_id": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-DEADLINE-20261010T151700Z:SCALL-4e0757b1cefd921fc300fddf",
        "call_id": "SCALL-4e0757b1cefd921fc300fddf",
        "signal_id": "INV-20261007-2317-MU",
        "status": "CANCELLED_MARKET_CLOSED",
        "policy_version": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-HORIZON-CANCELLATION-20261010-1",
        "label": "Market closed at deadline: horizon assessment cancelled and excluded from prediction statistics.",
        "effective_at_utc": "2026-10-10T15:17:00Z",
        "applied_at_utc": "2026-10-10T15:21:01Z"
      },
      {
        "cancellation_id": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-DEADLINE-20261010T151700Z:SCALL-0252e5062a597a671744fb0b",
        "call_id": "SCALL-0252e5062a597a671744fb0b",
        "signal_id": "INV-20261007-2317-XLU",
        "status": "CANCELLED_MARKET_CLOSED",
        "policy_version": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-HORIZON-CANCELLATION-20261010-1",
        "label": "Market closed at deadline: horizon assessment cancelled and excluded from prediction statistics.",
        "effective_at_utc": "2026-10-10T15:17:00Z",
        "applied_at_utc": "2026-10-10T15:21:01Z"
      },
      {
        "cancellation_id": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-DEADLINE-20261011T033103Z:SCALL-d1d2987f254c2a068bfc1790",
        "call_id": "SCALL-d1d2987f254c2a068bfc1790",
        "signal_id": "RESEARCH-20261008-PROCEED-02",
        "status": "CANCELLED_MARKET_CLOSED",
        "policy_version": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-HORIZON-CANCELLATION-20261010-1",
        "label": "Market closed at deadline: horizon assessment cancelled and excluded from prediction statistics.",
        "effective_at_utc": "2026-10-11T03:31:03Z",
        "applied_at_utc": "2026-10-11T03:52:30Z"
      },
      {
        "cancellation_id": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-DEADLINE-20261011T033103Z:SCALL-e46ca88621a62df4377f4327",
        "call_id": "SCALL-e46ca88621a62df4377f4327",
        "signal_id": "RESEARCH-20261008-PROCEED-03",
        "status": "CANCELLED_MARKET_CLOSED",
        "policy_version": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-HORIZON-CANCELLATION-20261010-1",
        "label": "Market closed at deadline: horizon assessment cancelled and excluded from prediction statistics.",
        "effective_at_utc": "2026-10-11T03:31:03Z",
        "applied_at_utc": "2026-10-11T03:52:30Z"
      },
      {
        "cancellation_id": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-DEADLINE-20261011T033103Z:SCALL-40314a234817eb31f4a1dc1f",
        "call_id": "SCALL-40314a234817eb31f4a1dc1f",
        "signal_id": "RESEARCH-20261008-PROCEED-05",
        "status": "CANCELLED_MARKET_CLOSED",
        "policy_version": "OTR-MARKET-CLOSED-HORIZON-CANCELLATION-20261010-1",
        "label": "Market closed at deadline: horizon assessment cancelled and excluded from prediction statistics.",
        "effective_at_utc": "2026-10-11T03:31:03Z",
        "applied_at_utc": "2026-10-11T03:52:30Z"
      }
    ]
  },
  "totals": {
    "total_calls": 114,
    "hit": 21,
    "miss": 3,
    "resolved": 24,
    "pending": 89,
    "flat": 0,
    "unverifiable": 1,
    "accuracy": 87.5
  },
  "scope": "Current included Signals testing cohort only. Pending calls are outside the resolved accuracy denominator. Owner-withdrawn calls remain excluded with their exact prior outcomes preserved in the history archive. Market-closed deadline cancellations are a separate non-scored group excluded from included and pending counts; their exact prior pending rows and original calls remain in append-only history. Founder aggregate statistics and earlier Signals records remain separately labelled historical records; no historical call or new price evidence is inferred.",
  "_public_delivery_projection": {
    "projection_id": "otr-historical-evidence-locators-20261008",
    "original_record_sha256": "13ef8239af0a861d145fdfaacad983d494b730e70dde49ce33ce94954521d53a",
    "original_public_url": "/data/signals/prediction-ledger-summary.json",
    "notice": "Retired public evidence locators omitted from this representation. Recorded results, provisional status, evidence warnings and source hashes are unchanged. The frozen original remains preserved in private source storage."
  }
}