{ "schema": "OTR-SIGNAL-LEARNING-1", "version": "b160134863eeadb90f90cf9c", "as_of_utc": "2026-10-12T08:52:51.560Z", "statistics": { "ledger_calls": 382, "eligible_outcomes": 66, "reproduced_outcomes": 41, "qualified_outcomes": 25, "direction_only_outcomes": 16, "hits": 37, "misses": 29, "probability_scored": 0, "probability_unscored": 66, "event_cluster_count": 51, "revisions_known": 5, "founder_results_used_for_training": 0, "calibrated": false }, "description": "Recorded Signals hits and misses inform future draft reviews. Reproduced endpoints and results with evidence limits remain separately labelled. Probability scores are separate from directional HIT/MISS results. Improvement has not been established.", "evidence_policy": "Settled results known by the draft cutoff enter outcome memory. Matched endpoints carry weight 1; recorded results with evidence limits carry weight 0.25. These are transparent policy weights, not measured confidence. The previous ledger aggregate remains a display baseline and is not training data.", "evidence_weight_policy": { "weights": { "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS": 1, "QUALIFIED_RECORDED_RESULT": 0.25 }, "basis": "Transparent evidence-quality policy; these weights are not empirically calibrated probabilities." }, "recalibration": { "schema": "OTR-LEARNING-CALIBRATION-2", "as_of_utc": "2026-10-12T08:52:51.560Z", "adjusted_forecasts": 0, "unchanged_forecasts": 1, "evidence_weight_policy": { "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS": 1, "QUALIFIED_RECORDED_RESULT": 0.25 }, "automatic_weights": { "schema": "OTR-AUTOMATIC-CALIBRATION-WEIGHTS-1", "status": "INITIAL_HEURISTIC", "as_of_utc": "2026-10-12T08:52:51.560Z", "updated_as_of_utc": null, "initial_prior_strength": 12, "sample_count": 0, "effective_weight": 0, "event_clusters": 0, "cumulative_base_loss": 0, "cumulative_adjusted_loss": 0, "effective_prior_strength": 12, "memory_influence_multiplier": 1, "outcome_ids": [], "pairs": [], "state_sha256": "044ecc78be44e10651672d6fe4a574882d973662b79efb4baadc4ecde04fee78", "excluded_reasons": {}, "improvement_established": false, "method": { "name": "prospective_paired_loss_correction_strength", "formula": "12 * (1 + sum(weight * adjusted_loss)) / (1 + sum(weight * base_loss))", "loss": "Three-class Brier divided by two; named-direction binary Brier unchanged.", "initial_loss_mass": 1, "event_policy": "Cross-event monitoring summary; each new forecast selects compatible event and horizon pairs.", "dependence_policy": "Evidence-tier weights normalised within shared events and transitive overlapping asset windows.", "interpretation": "Lower adjusted losses increase future memory influence; higher adjusted losses reduce it. This is deterministic online trust adaptation, not proof of future accuracy." } }, "prospective_evaluation": { "status": "NOT_ESTABLISHED", "sample_count": 0, "event_clusters": 0, "dependence_policy": "Loss means use evidence-tier weights normalised within shared events and transitive overlapping asset windows; raw sample counts are not independent trial counts.", "reproduced_pairs": 0, "qualified_pairs": 0, "base_brier": null, "adjusted_brier": null, "delta_brier": null, "three_class": { "sample_count": 0, "effective_weight": 0, "base_brier": null, "adjusted_brier": null, "delta_brier": null, "base_log_loss": null, "adjusted_log_loss": null }, "directional_binary": { "sample_count": 0, "effective_weight": 0, "base_brier": null, "adjusted_brier": null, "delta_brier": null, "base_log_loss": null, "adjusted_log_loss": null }, "improvement_established": false, "interpretation": "Paired observed losses describe this retained sample. They do not establish general improvement or empirical calibration.", "pairs": [], "excluded": [] } }, "principles": [ { "id": "PRINCIPLE-CLOCKS", "version": "1", "title": "Keep the clocks separate", "statement": "Source time, measurement time, preparation time and actual publication time are different.", "application": "Compare information that was known at the draft cutoff; preserve the frozen horizon." }, { "id": "PRINCIPLE-QUANTITIES", "version": "1", "title": "Compare matching quantities", "statement": "A comparison must identify its instrument, venue, currency, unit and time window.", "application": "Check the price basis and endpoint precision before borrowing an historical pattern." }, { "id": "PRINCIPLE-INDEPENDENCE", "version": "1", "title": "Look for independent evidence", "statement": "Several reports or asset calls can reflect one underlying event.", "application": "Group common sources and overlapping events; repetition is not another independent observation." }, { "id": "PRINCIPLE-INCOMPLETE", "version": "1", "title": "Keep incomplete tests visible", "statement": "Pending and unverifiable calls do not establish a successful outcome.", "application": "Keep gaps explicit and use research pending or an uncalibrated judgment without blocking the new Signal." }, { "id": "PRINCIPLE-MECHANISM", "version": "1", "title": "Separate direction from explanation", "statement": "A correct price direction does not prove the proposed cause.", "application": "Review timing, mechanism and counterevidence separately from the HIT or MISS." }, { "id": "PRINCIPLE-APPLICATION", "version": "1", "title": "Use lessons in the next call", "statement": "A lesson guides future work without rewriting a locked prediction.", "application": "Record the exact lesson version, decision and before/after change; measure improvement before claiming it." } ], "lessons": [ { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-9f142b38f54ccff583e8333d1450823a", "version": "8f8f1fcf3ab70a5d", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Ethereum / ETH: review the 24-hour hit", "statement": "The recorded bearish call was a HIT over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was -2.2358%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. This result has evidence limits and carries reduced statistical weight; its verification flags remain unchanged.", "application": "Recheck whether the same mechanism and timing apply; a prior hit alone is insufficient support for a new direction.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-09T02:26:55Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-9f142b38f54ccff583e8333d1450823a" ], "evidence_tier": "QUALIFIED_RECORDED_RESULT", "evidence_issues": [ "The starting reference is retained, but its market observation is not independently verified.", "This is the recorded owner directional assessment using its original reference and disclosed endpoint policy." ], "statistical_weight": 0.25, "return_basis": "RECORDED_REFERENCE_ARITHMETIC" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-7f8e0ea5331a27391f91116c53216a6c", "version": "7b2b4d8d3f408bd3", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Zydus Lifesciences Limited ordinary equity (ZYDUSLIFE): review the 24-hour miss", "statement": "The recorded bullish call was a MISS over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was -0.4404%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Revisit the opposing evidence, timing and mechanism before making the next call. Do not reverse direction just because an earlier call missed.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-7f8e0ea5331a27391f91116c53216a6c" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-5834b132dd54c0948a854fe795c82141", "version": "b0e31336a04aaf46", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "ChemoMetec A/S (CHEMM): review the 24-hour miss", "statement": "The recorded bullish call was a MISS over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was -2.4390%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Revisit the opposing evidence, timing and mechanism before making the next call. Do not reverse direction just because an earlier call missed.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-5834b132dd54c0948a854fe795c82141" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-63066902ed83087ced4da910cbaa000d", "version": "c86ed4523f4e52f3", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "GE HealthCare (GEHC): review the 24-hour miss", "statement": "The recorded bullish call was a MISS over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was -1.3769%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Revisit the opposing evidence, timing and mechanism before making the next call. Do not reverse direction just because an earlier call missed.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-63066902ed83087ced4da910cbaa000d" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-7fd08c2cdb1b813f3fdc306cdd7b2b9b", "version": "78b44d6a7cd64225", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Nvidia (NVDA): review the 24-hour hit", "statement": "The recorded bearish call was a HIT over its 24-hour window. A numerical return is unavailable; retain the recorded direction result only. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. This result has evidence limits and carries reduced statistical weight; its verification flags remain unchanged.", "application": "Recheck whether the same mechanism and timing apply; a prior hit alone is insufficient support for a new direction.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-09T06:31:35.348787+00:00", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-7fd08c2cdb1b813f3fdc306cdd7b2b9b" ], "evidence_tier": "QUALIFIED_RECORDED_RESULT", "evidence_issues": [ "The starting reference is retained, but its market observation is not independently verified.", "The recorded endpoint is not independently verified.", "The recorded result has not passed matched-endpoint reproduction.", "No matching numerical return can be reproduced from the recorded prices; this result is direction-only evidence." ], "statistical_weight": 0.25, "return_basis": "DIRECTION_ONLY" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-965eb0ad7ac161cca0e2d5b04afbcc87", "version": "c334291e00df1627", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Bayer AG ordinary equity (BAYN): review the 24-hour miss", "statement": "The recorded bearish call was a MISS over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was 0.0225%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Revisit the opposing evidence, timing and mechanism before making the next call. Do not reverse direction just because an earlier call missed.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-965eb0ad7ac161cca0e2d5b04afbcc87" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-e4d597360785cc9becadbed81fc0cf84", "version": "373e741157243fe4", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "USD/JPY (USDJPY): review the 48-hour hit", "statement": "The recorded bullish call was a HIT over its 48-hour window. A numerical return is unavailable; retain the recorded direction result only. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. This result has evidence limits and carries reduced statistical weight; its verification flags remain unchanged.", "application": "Recheck whether the same mechanism and timing apply; a prior hit alone is insufficient support for a new direction.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-09T15:21:31Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-e4d597360785cc9becadbed81fc0cf84" ], "evidence_tier": "QUALIFIED_RECORDED_RESULT", "evidence_issues": [ "The starting reference is retained, but its market observation is not independently verified.", "The recorded endpoint is not independently verified.", "The recorded result has not passed matched-endpoint reproduction.", "No matching numerical return can be reproduced from the recorded prices; this result is direction-only evidence." ], "statistical_weight": 0.25, "return_basis": "DIRECTION_ONLY" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-b3c7593bb05ab1fed114ae97c20763a1", "version": "4635ec4792e67dd9", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Amazon (AMZN): review the 24-hour miss", "statement": "The recorded bullish call was a MISS over its 24-hour window. A numerical return is unavailable; retain the recorded direction result only. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. This result has evidence limits and carries reduced statistical weight; its verification flags remain unchanged.", "application": "Revisit the opposing evidence, timing and mechanism before making the next call. Do not reverse direction just because an earlier call missed.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-09T06:31:35.348787+00:00", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-b3c7593bb05ab1fed114ae97c20763a1" ], "evidence_tier": "QUALIFIED_RECORDED_RESULT", "evidence_issues": [ "The starting reference is retained, but its market observation is not independently verified.", "The recorded endpoint is not independently verified.", "The recorded result has not passed matched-endpoint reproduction.", "No matching numerical return can be reproduced from the recorded prices; this result is direction-only evidence." ], "statistical_weight": 0.25, "return_basis": "DIRECTION_ONLY" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-c1f319e14696e65b937ce507541b8cbd", "version": "621fb014d0a030de", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Bitcoin (BTC-USD): review the 24-hour hit", "statement": "The recorded bearish call was a HIT over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was -1.9897%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. This result has evidence limits and carries reduced statistical weight; its verification flags remain unchanged.", "application": "Recheck whether the same mechanism and timing apply; a prior hit alone is insufficient support for a new direction.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-09T02:26:55Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-c1f319e14696e65b937ce507541b8cbd" ], "evidence_tier": "QUALIFIED_RECORDED_RESULT", "evidence_issues": [ "The starting reference is retained, but its market observation is not independently verified.", "This is the recorded owner directional assessment using its original reference and disclosed endpoint policy." ], "statistical_weight": 0.25, "return_basis": "RECORDED_REFERENCE_ARITHMETIC" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-3333932d614a5989f36f9dcaf1269e39", "version": "894aed1b8e3bf6bc", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Camping World Holdings Class A common stock (CWH): review the 24-hour hit", "statement": "The recorded bearish call was a HIT over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was -0.4396%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Recheck whether the same mechanism and timing apply; a prior hit alone is insufficient support for a new direction.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-3333932d614a5989f36f9dcaf1269e39" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-b40ed7623958353d631fc6c39ecb9468", "version": "24cd011f191b2bf7", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Solana (SOL): review the 24-hour miss", "statement": "The recorded bearish call was a MISS over its 24-hour window. A numerical return is unavailable; retain the recorded direction result only. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. This result has evidence limits and carries reduced statistical weight; its verification flags remain unchanged.", "application": "Revisit the opposing evidence, timing and mechanism before making the next call. Do not reverse direction just because an earlier call missed.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-12T01:02:18Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-b40ed7623958353d631fc6c39ecb9468" ], "evidence_tier": "QUALIFIED_RECORDED_RESULT", "evidence_issues": [ "The starting reference is retained, but its market observation is not independently verified.", "The recorded endpoint is not independently verified.", "The call uses its retained supplied clock; a verified native publication clock is unavailable.", "The recorded result has not passed matched-endpoint reproduction.", "Owner-supplied candle comparison: source bytes and arithmetic are retained, but endpoint and starting quote are not independently verified or matched to the original contract. 19 seconds after deadline; entry quote about three hours before call", "No matching numerical return can be reproduced from the recorded prices; this result is direction-only evidence." ], "statistical_weight": 0.25, "return_basis": "DIRECTION_ONLY" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-12c8e5cd8162db1c1d10e1047d276e6c", "version": "79bc8fbbaac7a887", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Micron Technology (MU): review the 24-hour hit", "statement": "The recorded bearish call was a HIT over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was -4.7779%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. This result has evidence limits and carries reduced statistical weight; its verification flags remain unchanged.", "application": "Recheck whether the same mechanism and timing apply; a prior hit alone is insufficient support for a new direction.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-09T02:26:55Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-12c8e5cd8162db1c1d10e1047d276e6c" ], "evidence_tier": "QUALIFIED_RECORDED_RESULT", "evidence_issues": [ "The starting reference is retained, but its market observation is not independently verified.", "This is the recorded owner directional assessment using its original reference and disclosed endpoint policy." ], "statistical_weight": 0.25, "return_basis": "RECORDED_REFERENCE_ARITHMETIC" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-5ff905fb1a7a03aeebffd866373b9b2f", "version": "7a652da4c33239d2", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Boeing (NYSE: BA): review the 24-hour miss", "statement": "The recorded bullish call was a MISS over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was -1.4485%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Revisit the opposing evidence, timing and mechanism before making the next call. Do not reverse direction just because an earlier call missed.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-5ff905fb1a7a03aeebffd866373b9b2f" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-d1f8d3d9193bdfa83807cc12af2f6d89", "version": "77c45d7d8f048848", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Helen of Troy Limited (HELE): review the 24-hour miss", "statement": "The recorded bearish call was a MISS over its 24-hour window. A numerical return is unavailable; retain the recorded direction result only. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. This result has evidence limits and carries reduced statistical weight; its verification flags remain unchanged.", "application": "Revisit the opposing evidence, timing and mechanism before making the next call. Do not reverse direction just because an earlier call missed.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-09T20:08:27.591999+00:00", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-d1f8d3d9193bdfa83807cc12af2f6d89" ], "evidence_tier": "QUALIFIED_RECORDED_RESULT", "evidence_issues": [ "The recorded endpoint is not independently verified.", "The recorded result has not passed matched-endpoint reproduction.", "No matching numerical return can be reproduced from the recorded prices; this result is direction-only evidence." ], "statistical_weight": 0.25, "return_basis": "DIRECTION_ONLY" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-7000837f36c0f3cf906c2a860cbbbe8f", "version": "bf7cdec5f53e56a4", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Chainlink (LINK-USD): review the 24-hour hit", "statement": "The recorded bullish call was a HIT over its 24-hour window. A numerical return is unavailable; retain the recorded direction result only. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. This result has evidence limits and carries reduced statistical weight; its verification flags remain unchanged.", "application": "Recheck whether the same mechanism and timing apply; a prior hit alone is insufficient support for a new direction.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-12T03:40:00Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-7000837f36c0f3cf906c2a860cbbbe8f" ], "evidence_tier": "QUALIFIED_RECORDED_RESULT", "evidence_issues": [ "The starting reference is retained, but its market observation is not independently verified.", "The recorded endpoint is not independently verified.", "The call uses its retained supplied clock; a verified native publication clock is unavailable.", "The recorded result has not passed matched-endpoint reproduction.", "Owner-supplied candle comparison: source bytes and arithmetic are retained, but endpoint and starting quote are not independently verified or matched to the original contract. Qualified indicative HIT requested by the owner. Approximately USD 13.28 was shown near 03:24 UTC, five seconds before the frozen deadline. Search corroborated the displayed number, but reopening returned an older cached page; an exact historical exchange candle and the displayed timestamp timezone were not independently v", "No matching numerical return can be reproduced from the recorded prices; this result is direction-only evidence." ], "statistical_weight": 0.25, "return_basis": "DIRECTION_ONLY" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-b94a61e06da68a08981ce360e91e2322", "version": "28549ab0a2ef2f65", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Bitcoin (BTC-USD): review the 24-hour hit", "statement": "The recorded bearish call was a HIT over its 24-hour window. A numerical return is unavailable; retain the recorded direction result only. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. This result has evidence limits and carries reduced statistical weight; its verification flags remain unchanged.", "application": "Recheck whether the same mechanism and timing apply; a prior hit alone is insufficient support for a new direction.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-09T06:34:43.394225+00:00", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-b94a61e06da68a08981ce360e91e2322" ], "evidence_tier": "QUALIFIED_RECORDED_RESULT", "evidence_issues": [ "The starting reference is retained, but its market observation is not independently verified.", "The recorded endpoint is not independently verified.", "The recorded result has not passed matched-endpoint reproduction.", "No matching numerical return can be reproduced from the recorded prices; this result is direction-only evidence." ], "statistical_weight": 0.25, "return_basis": "DIRECTION_ONLY" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-bcb86b72d50e0dc3e9a51c552cb17ad2", "version": "1605233f9a5f6de5", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Long-duration U.S. Treasuries / TLT (TLT): review the 24-hour hit", "statement": "The recorded bearish call was a HIT over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was -0.0906%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. This result has evidence limits and carries reduced statistical weight; its verification flags remain unchanged.", "application": "Recheck whether the same mechanism and timing apply; a prior hit alone is insufficient support for a new direction.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-09T02:26:55Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-bcb86b72d50e0dc3e9a51c552cb17ad2" ], "evidence_tier": "QUALIFIED_RECORDED_RESULT", "evidence_issues": [ "The starting reference is retained, but its market observation is not independently verified.", "This is the recorded owner directional assessment using its original reference and disclosed endpoint policy." ], "statistical_weight": 0.25, "return_basis": "RECORDED_REFERENCE_ARITHMETIC" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-3d69da4bad76ff95f55ffa4aab454a9c", "version": "8e036a9b08e1027a", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Tadawul All Share Index (TASI), Saudi Exchange benchmark: review the 24-hour miss", "statement": "The recorded bullish call was a MISS over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was -0.4920%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Revisit the opposing evidence, timing and mechanism before making the next call. Do not reverse direction just because an earlier call missed.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-3d69da4bad76ff95f55ffa4aab454a9c" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-928c3c3699740c8c058c8bde51959d36", "version": "b162bea456f2abfb", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Vaxcyte (PCVX): review the 24-hour miss", "statement": "The recorded bullish call was a MISS over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was -9.9919%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Revisit the opposing evidence, timing and mechanism before making the next call. Do not reverse direction just because an earlier call missed.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-928c3c3699740c8c058c8bde51959d36" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-b452aa738ec67ac5e49e8fdf14ee31b1", "version": "7b27c49abadbb948", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "WTI: review the 24-hour hit", "statement": "The recorded bearish call was a HIT over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was -0.5765%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Recheck whether the same mechanism and timing apply; a prior hit alone is insufficient support for a new direction.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-b452aa738ec67ac5e49e8fdf14ee31b1" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-55decd8a34d7fd80d0f360e00e72f40e", "version": "02c6710d8a7de37f", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "New Fortress Energy Class A common stock (NFE): review the 24-hour hit", "statement": "The recorded bearish call was a HIT over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was -6.1329%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Recheck whether the same mechanism and timing apply; a prior hit alone is insufficient support for a new direction.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-55decd8a34d7fd80d0f360e00e72f40e" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-1ff57d13b539b857b71e008fcb575460", "version": "bd603a16696916b0", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Brent: review the 24-hour miss", "statement": "The recorded bullish call was a MISS over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was -1.1783%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Revisit the opposing evidence, timing and mechanism before making the next call. Do not reverse direction just because an earlier call missed.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-1ff57d13b539b857b71e008fcb575460" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-529ed80886dca14b09f38e84922b0ce9", "version": "dc055549c3a3201b", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Bitcoin (BTC-USD): review the 24-hour hit", "statement": "The recorded bullish call was a HIT over its 24-hour window. A numerical return is unavailable; retain the recorded direction result only. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. This result has evidence limits and carries reduced statistical weight; its verification flags remain unchanged.", "application": "Recheck whether the same mechanism and timing apply; a prior hit alone is insufficient support for a new direction.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-12T01:02:18Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-529ed80886dca14b09f38e84922b0ce9" ], "evidence_tier": "QUALIFIED_RECORDED_RESULT", "evidence_issues": [ "The starting reference is retained, but its market observation is not independently verified.", "The recorded endpoint is not independently verified.", "The call uses its retained supplied clock; a verified native publication clock is unavailable.", "The recorded result has not passed matched-endpoint reproduction.", "Owner-supplied candle comparison: source bytes and arithmetic are retained, but endpoint and starting quote are not independently verified or matched to the original contract. 26 minutes before deadline; entry quote clock not recorded", "No matching numerical return can be reproduced from the recorded prices; this result is direction-only evidence." ], "statistical_weight": 0.25, "return_basis": "DIRECTION_ONLY" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-58ab3accd5a249b2150c5f7f63be2c83", "version": "b9ae79f3828b268d", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Ethereum (ETH-USD): review the 24-hour hit", "statement": "The recorded bearish call was a HIT over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was -4.2492%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. This result has evidence limits and carries reduced statistical weight; its verification flags remain unchanged.", "application": "Recheck whether the same mechanism and timing apply; a prior hit alone is insufficient support for a new direction.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-09T02:26:55Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-58ab3accd5a249b2150c5f7f63be2c83" ], "evidence_tier": "QUALIFIED_RECORDED_RESULT", "evidence_issues": [ "The starting reference is retained, but its market observation is not independently verified.", "This is the recorded owner directional assessment using its original reference and disclosed endpoint policy." ], "statistical_weight": 0.25, "return_basis": "RECORDED_REFERENCE_ARITHMETIC" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-32649a745307399ff170b74a0a2ddacf", "version": "da695717ac693ad8", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Bitcoin (BTC): review the 24-hour hit", "statement": "The recorded bullish call was a HIT over its 24-hour window. A numerical return is unavailable; retain the recorded direction result only. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. This result has evidence limits and carries reduced statistical weight; its verification flags remain unchanged.", "application": "Recheck whether the same mechanism and timing apply; a prior hit alone is insufficient support for a new direction.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-12T01:02:18Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-32649a745307399ff170b74a0a2ddacf" ], "evidence_tier": "QUALIFIED_RECORDED_RESULT", "evidence_issues": [ "The starting reference is retained, but its market observation is not independently verified.", "The recorded endpoint is not independently verified.", "The call uses its retained supplied clock; a verified native publication clock is unavailable.", "The recorded result has not passed matched-endpoint reproduction.", "Owner-supplied candle comparison: source bytes and arithmetic are retained, but endpoint and starting quote are not independently verified or matched to the original contract. 19 seconds after deadline; entry quote about three hours before call", "No matching numerical return can be reproduced from the recorded prices; this result is direction-only evidence." ], "statistical_weight": 0.25, "return_basis": "DIRECTION_ONLY" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-4133864e0c7e30815e5ea8feac1d1b2d", "version": "357ab2bf56885da9", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "UniCredit S.p.A. ordinary equity (UCG): review the 24-hour hit", "statement": "The recorded bullish call was a HIT over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was 0.7084%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Recheck whether the same mechanism and timing apply; a prior hit alone is insufficient support for a new direction.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-4133864e0c7e30815e5ea8feac1d1b2d" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-55210b6cf61c51e2579d4dbdbe8c2695", "version": "cd1d53d455caea45", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Vistra (VST): review the 24-hour hit", "statement": "The recorded bullish call was a HIT over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was 10.7737%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Recheck whether the same mechanism and timing apply; a prior hit alone is insufficient support for a new direction.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-55210b6cf61c51e2579d4dbdbe8c2695" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-790909bf0aa301f5b8fc59c085921c7e", "version": "233cfdee2ed2bb5b", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Ethereum (ETH-USD): review the 24-hour hit", "statement": "The recorded bearish call was a HIT over its 24-hour window. A numerical return is unavailable; retain the recorded direction result only. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. This result has evidence limits and carries reduced statistical weight; its verification flags remain unchanged.", "application": "Recheck whether the same mechanism and timing apply; a prior hit alone is insufficient support for a new direction.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-09T06:34:43.394225+00:00", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-790909bf0aa301f5b8fc59c085921c7e" ], "evidence_tier": "QUALIFIED_RECORDED_RESULT", "evidence_issues": [ "The starting reference is retained, but its market observation is not independently verified.", "The recorded endpoint is not independently verified.", "The recorded result has not passed matched-endpoint reproduction.", "No matching numerical return can be reproduced from the recorded prices; this result is direction-only evidence." ], "statistical_weight": 0.25, "return_basis": "DIRECTION_ONLY" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-547784b716e7e0b77d9fab86e6e102fa", "version": "143388809b1cfd70", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Nikkei 225: review the 24-hour hit", "statement": "The recorded bullish call was a HIT over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was 1.3895%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Recheck whether the same mechanism and timing apply; a prior hit alone is insufficient support for a new direction.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-547784b716e7e0b77d9fab86e6e102fa" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-61e9488c26052c54fb3fcbf3a2fb8c6f", "version": "5a9dc52281258636", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Wolfspeed (WOLF): review the 24-hour hit", "statement": "The recorded bearish call was a HIT over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was -16.9917%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. This result has evidence limits and carries reduced statistical weight; its verification flags remain unchanged.", "application": "Recheck whether the same mechanism and timing apply; a prior hit alone is insufficient support for a new direction.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-09T02:26:55Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-61e9488c26052c54fb3fcbf3a2fb8c6f" ], "evidence_tier": "QUALIFIED_RECORDED_RESULT", "evidence_issues": [ "The starting reference is retained, but its market observation is not independently verified.", "This is the recorded owner directional assessment using its original reference and disclosed endpoint policy." ], "statistical_weight": 0.25, "return_basis": "RECORDED_REFERENCE_ARITHMETIC" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-7dceba4cc4ab47931c32cc805ddc331c", "version": "647dd086de0bed46", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Bitcoin (BTC-USD): review the 24-hour hit", "statement": "The recorded bearish call was a HIT over its 24-hour window. A numerical return is unavailable; retain the recorded direction result only. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. This result has evidence limits and carries reduced statistical weight; its verification flags remain unchanged.", "application": "Recheck whether the same mechanism and timing apply; a prior hit alone is insufficient support for a new direction.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-09T06:34:43.394225+00:00", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-7dceba4cc4ab47931c32cc805ddc331c" ], "evidence_tier": "QUALIFIED_RECORDED_RESULT", "evidence_issues": [ "The starting reference is retained, but its market observation is not independently verified.", "The recorded endpoint is not independently verified.", "The recorded result has not passed matched-endpoint reproduction.", "No matching numerical return can be reproduced from the recorded prices; this result is direction-only evidence." ], "statistical_weight": 0.25, "return_basis": "DIRECTION_ONLY" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-44dca8504d1c16a38796eb4fe4108a90", "version": "6e7178b1eef29e03", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Avenue Supermarts (NSE: DMART): review the 24-hour miss", "statement": "The recorded bearish call was a MISS over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was 0.3456%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Revisit the opposing evidence, timing and mechanism before making the next call. Do not reverse direction just because an earlier call missed.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-44dca8504d1c16a38796eb4fe4108a90" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-6c2c077a22834296edb490c9c0687d78", "version": "8eb36a0e3013a935", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Genmab (GMAB): review the 24-hour miss", "statement": "The recorded bullish call was a MISS over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was -1.8819%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Revisit the opposing evidence, timing and mechanism before making the next call. Do not reverse direction just because an earlier call missed.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-6c2c077a22834296edb490c9c0687d78" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-47f850de7f02be3f05eaeef920bf0c86", "version": "a000040e288243a6", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "United States Oil Fund / USO (USO): review the 48-hour hit", "statement": "The recorded bullish call was a HIT over its 48-hour window. A numerical return is unavailable; retain the recorded direction result only. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. This result has evidence limits and carries reduced statistical weight; its verification flags remain unchanged.", "application": "Recheck whether the same mechanism and timing apply; a prior hit alone is insufficient support for a new direction.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-09T15:21:31Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-47f850de7f02be3f05eaeef920bf0c86" ], "evidence_tier": "QUALIFIED_RECORDED_RESULT", "evidence_issues": [ "The starting reference is retained, but its market observation is not independently verified.", "The recorded endpoint is not independently verified.", "The recorded result has not passed matched-endpoint reproduction.", "No matching numerical return can be reproduced from the recorded prices; this result is direction-only evidence." ], "statistical_weight": 0.25, "return_basis": "DIRECTION_ONLY" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-3bd37028a8504d0b63ecf4a999153a0c", "version": "70fcade351c0d835", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "WTI: review the 24-hour miss", "statement": "The recorded bullish call was a MISS over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was -0.5765%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Revisit the opposing evidence, timing and mechanism before making the next call. Do not reverse direction just because an earlier call missed.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-3bd37028a8504d0b63ecf4a999153a0c" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-718411083505cd0223956d345e3077c2", "version": "c91cf5f7707cf9de", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Bitcoin (BTC-USD): review the 24-hour hit", "statement": "The recorded bullish call was a HIT over its 24-hour window. A numerical return is unavailable; retain the recorded direction result only. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. This result has evidence limits and carries reduced statistical weight; its verification flags remain unchanged.", "application": "Recheck whether the same mechanism and timing apply; a prior hit alone is insufficient support for a new direction.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-12T03:40:00Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-718411083505cd0223956d345e3077c2" ], "evidence_tier": "QUALIFIED_RECORDED_RESULT", "evidence_issues": [ "The starting reference is retained, but its market observation is not independently verified.", "The recorded endpoint is not independently verified.", "The call uses its retained supplied clock; a verified native publication clock is unavailable.", "The recorded result has not passed matched-endpoint reproduction.", "Owner-supplied candle comparison: source bytes and arithmetic are retained, but endpoint and starting quote are not independently verified or matched to the original contract. Qualified indicative HIT requested by the owner. The retained Bitstamp candle agrees with the supplied exit, but its open is five seconds before the frozen deadline. The original Binance USD reference is unverified, from 3 hours 5 minutes 5 seconds before the call, and uses a different provider. This comparison does not se", "No matching numerical return can be reproduced from the recorded prices; this result is direction-only evidence." ], "statistical_weight": 0.25, "return_basis": "DIRECTION_ONLY" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-461ec3e94d57aaa92e108f53505a5172", "version": "2e97a634ba337692", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Exxon Mobil / XOM (XOM): review the 48-hour hit", "statement": "The recorded bullish call was a HIT over its 48-hour window. A numerical return is unavailable; retain the recorded direction result only. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. This result has evidence limits and carries reduced statistical weight; its verification flags remain unchanged.", "application": "Recheck whether the same mechanism and timing apply; a prior hit alone is insufficient support for a new direction.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-09T15:21:31Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-461ec3e94d57aaa92e108f53505a5172" ], "evidence_tier": "QUALIFIED_RECORDED_RESULT", "evidence_issues": [ "The starting reference is retained, but its market observation is not independently verified.", "The recorded endpoint is not independently verified.", "The recorded result has not passed matched-endpoint reproduction.", "No matching numerical return can be reproduced from the recorded prices; this result is direction-only evidence." ], "statistical_weight": 0.25, "return_basis": "DIRECTION_ONLY" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-316820e937d50a9ef92262c888a020c4", "version": "c94235d82eec31e9", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Brent: review the 24-hour hit", "statement": "The recorded bearish call was a HIT over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was -1.1783%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Recheck whether the same mechanism and timing apply; a prior hit alone is insufficient support for a new direction.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-316820e937d50a9ef92262c888a020c4" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-363eddb4760bf244dafae1eada4661b1", "version": "4fabd429b7f96c8c", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Cboe Global Markets (CBOE): review the 24-hour miss", "statement": "The recorded bullish call was a MISS over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was -0.3760%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Revisit the opposing evidence, timing and mechanism before making the next call. Do not reverse direction just because an earlier call missed.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-363eddb4760bf244dafae1eada4661b1" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-9d6c9e9045a1e1bc61a44af595789254", "version": "458197e95f6b88f8", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "PagSeguro (NYSE: PAGS): review the 24-hour miss", "statement": "The recorded bullish call was a MISS over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was -4.2677%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Revisit the opposing evidence, timing and mechanism before making the next call. Do not reverse direction just because an earlier call missed.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-9d6c9e9045a1e1bc61a44af595789254" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-0e4031f6b7afa706a7173dca4cac90b9", "version": "b0b7911b1e18cd29", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "StoneCo (NASDAQ: STNE): review the 24-hour miss", "statement": "The recorded bullish call was a MISS over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was -3.8510%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Revisit the opposing evidence, timing and mechanism before making the next call. Do not reverse direction just because an earlier call missed.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-0e4031f6b7afa706a7173dca4cac90b9" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-7cc9f305988c4001745a81e61ef42033", "version": "a853367f6fa7939e", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "EUR/USD: review the 24-hour miss", "statement": "The recorded bearish call was a MISS over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was 0.2468%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Revisit the opposing evidence, timing and mechanism before making the next call. Do not reverse direction just because an earlier call missed.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-7cc9f305988c4001745a81e61ef42033" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-0fe9319c819362cf556bd73a814ed6f2", "version": "13eb9e632255fc90", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Deutsche Telekom AG equity: review the 24-hour miss", "statement": "The recorded bullish call was a MISS over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was -1.3796%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Revisit the opposing evidence, timing and mechanism before making the next call. Do not reverse direction just because an earlier call missed.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-0fe9319c819362cf556bd73a814ed6f2" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-2fafff8a4ef69c26e96973323d3c6000", "version": "51ff03e2a0573539", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "PTC (NASDAQ: PTC): review the 24-hour miss", "statement": "The recorded bullish call was a MISS over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was -1.7642%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Revisit the opposing evidence, timing and mechanism before making the next call. Do not reverse direction just because an earlier call missed.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-2fafff8a4ef69c26e96973323d3c6000" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-271f979d35cf30bab4e280742afe8ef8", "version": "e30f126fe5bf2384", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "BTG Pactual (BPAC11): review the 24-hour miss", "statement": "The recorded bullish call was a MISS over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was -2.8063%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Revisit the opposing evidence, timing and mechanism before making the next call. Do not reverse direction just because an earlier call missed.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-271f979d35cf30bab4e280742afe8ef8" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-9fa6badd97575cfb19d973e2c354716e", "version": "1408f2c6a263f99d", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Almarai Company common shares (Saudi Exchange: 2280; SAR): review the 24-hour miss", "statement": "The recorded bearish call was a MISS over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was 0.4610%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Revisit the opposing evidence, timing and mechanism before making the next call. Do not reverse direction just because an earlier call missed.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-9fa6badd97575cfb19d973e2c354716e" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-3e3566c68d9442c406a71b8c1db865c0", "version": "0c0d42fbc965cb62", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "EUR/USD: review the 24-hour hit", "statement": "The recorded bullish call was a HIT over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was 0.2468%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Recheck whether the same mechanism and timing apply; a prior hit alone is insufficient support for a new direction.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-3e3566c68d9442c406a71b8c1db865c0" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-4dc5961d55803dda6d0799f4d658bbae", "version": "cae3a77d9ebd411f", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Nikkei 225: review the 24-hour miss", "statement": "The recorded bearish call was a MISS over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was 1.3895%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Revisit the opposing evidence, timing and mechanism before making the next call. Do not reverse direction just because an earlier call missed.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-4dc5961d55803dda6d0799f4d658bbae" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-9e6c808a2c6d5c3584d264c1c05a2124", "version": "246fc7dfc9f14fd5", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "AbbVie (ABBV): review the 24-hour hit", "statement": "The recorded bullish call was a HIT over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was 0.3499%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Recheck whether the same mechanism and timing apply; a prior hit alone is insufficient support for a new direction.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-9e6c808a2c6d5c3584d264c1c05a2124" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-7e0fe875165ccfa575e626eac52dcedf", "version": "a0c4e537469bf52f", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Hang Seng Index: review the 24-hour miss", "statement": "The recorded bearish call was a MISS over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was 1.0728%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Revisit the opposing evidence, timing and mechanism before making the next call. Do not reverse direction just because an earlier call missed.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-7e0fe875165ccfa575e626eac52dcedf" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-809395fcc744008450d5d2938a4dc0ab", "version": "e79b06dbc7ed6572", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Suncor Energy common shares (SU): review the 24-hour miss", "statement": "The recorded bullish call was a MISS over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was -0.7998%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Revisit the opposing evidence, timing and mechanism before making the next call. Do not reverse direction just because an earlier call missed.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-809395fcc744008450d5d2938a4dc0ab" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-ecbea90530a456a52d49ccf32cd2f4b7", "version": "e1be8cf954caa7c2", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "DBS (D05): review the 24-hour hit", "statement": "The recorded bearish call was a HIT over its 24-hour window. A numerical return is unavailable; retain the recorded direction result only. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. This result has evidence limits and carries reduced statistical weight; its verification flags remain unchanged.", "application": "Recheck whether the same mechanism and timing apply; a prior hit alone is insufficient support for a new direction.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-09T06:33:45Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-ecbea90530a456a52d49ccf32cd2f4b7" ], "evidence_tier": "QUALIFIED_RECORDED_RESULT", "evidence_issues": [ "The starting reference is retained, but its market observation is not independently verified.", "The recorded endpoint is not independently verified.", "The recorded result has not passed matched-endpoint reproduction.", "No matching numerical return can be reproduced from the recorded prices; this result is direction-only evidence." ], "statistical_weight": 0.25, "return_basis": "DIRECTION_ONLY" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-ad37cf5fb240bdc2ae42e7dc13153c99", "version": "a543425337e64af9", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "PTC (NASDAQ: PTC): review the 24-hour hit", "statement": "The recorded bearish call was a HIT over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was -1.7642%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Recheck whether the same mechanism and timing apply; a prior hit alone is insufficient support for a new direction.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-ad37cf5fb240bdc2ae42e7dc13153c99" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-4e8edc77a495c1e5d24f068e44c35130", "version": "16cb9ab04a336776", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "ORIC: review the 24-hour miss", "statement": "The recorded bullish call was a MISS over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was -3.8909%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Revisit the opposing evidence, timing and mechanism before making the next call. Do not reverse direction just because an earlier call missed.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-4e8edc77a495c1e5d24f068e44c35130" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-63b5b53699dcea06242d0922842d9a1e", "version": "a3014a0dc2471f7e", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "EUR/USD (EURUSD): review the 24-hour miss", "statement": "The recorded bearish call was a MISS over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was 0.0724%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. This result has evidence limits and carries reduced statistical weight; its verification flags remain unchanged.", "application": "Revisit the opposing evidence, timing and mechanism before making the next call. Do not reverse direction just because an earlier call missed.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-09T02:26:55Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-63b5b53699dcea06242d0922842d9a1e" ], "evidence_tier": "QUALIFIED_RECORDED_RESULT", "evidence_issues": [ "The starting reference is retained, but its market observation is not independently verified.", "This is the recorded owner directional assessment using its original reference and disclosed endpoint policy." ], "statistical_weight": 0.25, "return_basis": "RECORDED_REFERENCE_ARITHMETIC" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-d5cb070b08a2542fb490700ac32ec6b7", "version": "2e78b4f4788fd238", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "FSN E-Commerce (NSE: NYKAA): review the 24-hour hit", "statement": "The recorded bullish call was a HIT over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was 0.1774%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Recheck whether the same mechanism and timing apply; a prior hit alone is insufficient support for a new direction.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-d5cb070b08a2542fb490700ac32ec6b7" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-c44698bba96b81f7b1cee9b1867dfc97", "version": "a0ab612e0b9e0495", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Suzano (SUZB3): review the 24-hour hit", "statement": "The recorded bearish call was a HIT over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was -0.5720%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Recheck whether the same mechanism and timing apply; a prior hit alone is insufficient support for a new direction.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-c44698bba96b81f7b1cee9b1867dfc97" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-2526f724dc62a36a3fcb025315f3fc92", "version": "5c42f0e4e042a33e", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Bitcoin (BTC-USD): review the 24-hour hit", "statement": "The recorded bearish call was a HIT over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was -2.1228%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. This result has evidence limits and carries reduced statistical weight; its verification flags remain unchanged.", "application": "Recheck whether the same mechanism and timing apply; a prior hit alone is insufficient support for a new direction.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-09T02:26:55Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-2526f724dc62a36a3fcb025315f3fc92" ], "evidence_tier": "QUALIFIED_RECORDED_RESULT", "evidence_issues": [ "The starting reference is retained, but its market observation is not independently verified.", "This is the recorded owner directional assessment using its original reference and disclosed endpoint policy." ], "statistical_weight": 0.25, "return_basis": "RECORDED_REFERENCE_ARITHMETIC" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-8b4e3d8de2d94aee2d727ade00742bc5", "version": "2d08f9e5df735b06", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "XP Inc. (NASDAQ: XP): review the 24-hour hit", "statement": "The recorded bullish call was a HIT over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was 3.5457%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Recheck whether the same mechanism and timing apply; a prior hit alone is insufficient support for a new direction.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-8b4e3d8de2d94aee2d727ade00742bc5" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-d8a39a721fcb39cec07324d7a8b37c36", "version": "75f56e2d5a6d5aab", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "B3 S.A. (B3SA3): review the 24-hour miss", "statement": "The recorded bullish call was a MISS over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was -2.6609%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Revisit the opposing evidence, timing and mechanism before making the next call. Do not reverse direction just because an earlier call missed.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-d8a39a721fcb39cec07324d7a8b37c36" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-05834bb7006b6790d47536526cc0f9f7", "version": "8c0ebaa336a7c28a", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Constellation Energy / CEG (CEG): review the 24-hour hit", "statement": "The recorded bearish call was a HIT over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was -0.0544%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. This result has evidence limits and carries reduced statistical weight; its verification flags remain unchanged.", "application": "Recheck whether the same mechanism and timing apply; a prior hit alone is insufficient support for a new direction.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-09T02:26:55Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-05834bb7006b6790d47536526cc0f9f7" ], "evidence_tier": "QUALIFIED_RECORDED_RESULT", "evidence_issues": [ "The starting reference is retained, but its market observation is not independently verified.", "This is the recorded owner directional assessment using its original reference and disclosed endpoint policy." ], "statistical_weight": 0.25, "return_basis": "RECORDED_REFERENCE_ARITHMETIC" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-9fb74de6148c2328870a0da8f1172052", "version": "bd64962450a09c08", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Nu Holdings (NYSE: NU): review the 24-hour hit", "statement": "The recorded bullish call was a HIT over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was 1.4620%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Recheck whether the same mechanism and timing apply; a prior hit alone is insufficient support for a new direction.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-9fb74de6148c2328870a0da8f1172052" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-4e4e343a4be2607f53569eed2cedebc1", "version": "3a3521155e7271cd", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "LCID: review the 24-hour hit", "statement": "The recorded bearish call was a HIT over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was -0.4785%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Recheck whether the same mechanism and timing apply; a prior hit alone is insufficient support for a new direction.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-4e4e343a4be2607f53569eed2cedebc1" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-35d73989ac992a1eb808cfbb3b2854a6", "version": "33c682dc3425fa4b", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Magazine Luiza (MGLU3): review the 24-hour miss", "statement": "The recorded bullish call was a MISS over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was -2.2222%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Revisit the opposing evidence, timing and mechanism before making the next call. Do not reverse direction just because an earlier call missed.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-35d73989ac992a1eb808cfbb3b2854a6" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-1e8762a81d132998b1aa557903bc4d8e", "version": "04b0a3d32b9e0372", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "SGX (SGX:S68): review the 24-hour hit", "statement": "The recorded bullish call was a HIT over its 24-hour window. The recorded reference return was 1.1063%. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. The original wording was conditional or contained multiple directions; this is a direction test only.", "application": "Recheck whether the same mechanism and timing apply; a prior hit alone is insufficient support for a new direction.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-1e8762a81d132998b1aa557903bc4d8e" ], "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS" }, { "id": "LESSON-OUTCOME-fa5a8bfedb9171889e11b16d7629a63b", "version": "5c4e4f82e187e215", "kind": "outcome_review", "title": "Chevron / CVX (CVX): review the 48-hour hit", "statement": "The recorded bullish call was a HIT over its 48-hour window. A numerical return is unavailable; retain the recorded direction result only. This observation does not establish its proposed cause or a general win rate. This result has evidence limits and carries reduced statistical weight; its verification flags remain unchanged.", "application": "Recheck whether the same mechanism and timing apply; a prior hit alone is insufficient support for a new direction.", "known_at_utc": "2026-10-09T15:21:31Z", "evidence_ids": [ "OUTCOME-fa5a8bfedb9171889e11b16d7629a63b" ], "evidence_tier": "QUALIFIED_RECORDED_RESULT", "evidence_issues": [ "The starting reference is retained, but its market observation is not independently verified.", "The recorded endpoint is not independently verified.", "The recorded result has not passed matched-endpoint reproduction.", "No matching numerical return can be reproduced from the recorded prices; this result is direction-only evidence." ], "statistical_weight": 0.25, "return_basis": "DIRECTION_ONLY" } ], "outcomes": [ { "id": "OUTCOME-9f142b38f54ccff583e8333d1450823a", "call_id": "SCALL-067966e135e0b75c57e808c4", "signal_id": "INV-20261007-2317-ETH", "signal_url": "/signals/INV-20261007-2317-ETH/", "direction": "BEARISH", "horizon_hours": 24, "status": "HIT", "return_value": -0.0223581358338663, "known_at_utc": "2026-10-09T02:26:55Z", "known_time_basis": "RECORDED_OUTCOME_VERIFICATION", "clock_basis": "explicit_owner_instruction_at_chat_submission", "endpoint_precision": "1m_candle_open", "evidence_tier": "QUALIFIED_RECORDED_RESULT", "evidence_issues": [ "The starting reference is retained, but its market observation is not independently verified.", "This is the recorded owner directional assessment using its original reference and disclosed endpoint policy." ], "statistical_weight": 0.25, "return_basis": "RECORDED_REFERENCE_ARITHMETIC", "baseline_verified": false, "outcome_verified": true, "endpoint_reproduction_verified": false, "probability_status": "NO_MATCHING_EX_ANTE_FORECAST", "probability_score": null }, { "id": "OUTCOME-7f8e0ea5331a27391f91116c53216a6c", "call_id": "SCALL-0eca7f3ec9986e30805c4dc7", "signal_id": "INV-20261005-RIOCIGUAT-APPROVAL-LAUNCH-GAP", "signal_url": "/signals/INV-20261005-RIOCIGUAT-APPROVAL-LAUNCH-GAP/", "direction": "BULLISH", "horizon_hours": 24, "status": "MISS", "return_value": -0.004403743798852238, "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "known_time_basis": "RECORDED_OUTCOME_VERIFICATION", "clock_basis": "native_first_publication", "endpoint_precision": "NEAREST_INTRADAY_CANDLE", "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS", "baseline_verified": true, "outcome_verified": true, "endpoint_reproduction_verified": true, "probability_status": "NO_MATCHING_EX_ANTE_FORECAST", "probability_score": null }, { "id": "OUTCOME-5834b132dd54c0948a854fe795c82141", "call_id": "SCALL-0febc893d2a310894928be55", "signal_id": "INV-20261005-CHEMOMETEC-GUIDANCE-COST-BRIDGE", "signal_url": "/signals/INV-20261005-CHEMOMETEC-GUIDANCE-COST-BRIDGE/", "direction": "BULLISH", "horizon_hours": 24, "status": "MISS", "return_value": -0.024390243902439025, "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "known_time_basis": "RECORDED_OUTCOME_VERIFICATION", "clock_basis": "native_first_publication", "endpoint_precision": "NEAREST_INTRADAY_CANDLE", "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS", "baseline_verified": true, "outcome_verified": true, "endpoint_reproduction_verified": true, "probability_status": "NO_MATCHING_EX_ANTE_FORECAST", "probability_score": null }, { "id": "OUTCOME-63066902ed83087ced4da910cbaa000d", "call_id": "SCALL-135375f528bafda25b25377f", "signal_id": "INV-20261006-GEHC-HYBRID-TRACER-SUPPLY", "signal_url": "/signals/INV-20261006-GEHC-HYBRID-TRACER-SUPPLY/", "direction": "BULLISH", "horizon_hours": 24, "status": "MISS", "return_value": -0.013768543472863534, "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "known_time_basis": "RECORDED_OUTCOME_VERIFICATION", "clock_basis": "native_first_publication", "endpoint_precision": "NEAREST_INTRADAY_CANDLE", "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS", "baseline_verified": true, "outcome_verified": true, "endpoint_reproduction_verified": true, "probability_status": "NO_MATCHING_EX_ANTE_FORECAST", "probability_score": null }, { "id": "OUTCOME-7fd08c2cdb1b813f3fdc306cdd7b2b9b", "call_id": "SCALL-14378b46c66013fe84c94f03", "signal_id": "PDF-20261008-1244-APPEND-03", "signal_url": "/signals/PDF-20261008-1244-APPEND-03/", "direction": "BEARISH", "horizon_hours": 24, "status": "HIT", "return_value": null, "known_at_utc": "2026-10-09T06:31:35.348787+00:00", "known_time_basis": "RECORDED_OUTCOME_VERIFICATION", "clock_basis": "forecast_prepared_research_clock", "endpoint_precision": "NOT_ESTABLISHED", "evidence_tier": "QUALIFIED_RECORDED_RESULT", "evidence_issues": [ "The starting reference is retained, but its market observation is not independently 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"status": "HIT", "return_value": 0.10773690385809935, "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "known_time_basis": "RECORDED_OUTCOME_VERIFICATION", "clock_basis": "native_first_publication", "endpoint_precision": "NEAREST_INTRADAY_CANDLE", "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS", "baseline_verified": true, "outcome_verified": true, "endpoint_reproduction_verified": true, "probability_status": "NO_MATCHING_EX_ANTE_FORECAST", "probability_score": null }, { "id": "OUTCOME-790909bf0aa301f5b8fc59c085921c7e", "call_id": "SCALL-60797f70b4a0af64708dfeea", "signal_id": "PDF-20261008-1244-APPEND-02", "signal_url": "/signals/PDF-20261008-1244-APPEND-02/", "direction": "BEARISH", "horizon_hours": 24, "status": "HIT", "return_value": null, "known_at_utc": "2026-10-09T06:34:43.394225+00:00", "known_time_basis": "RECORDED_OUTCOME_VERIFICATION", "clock_basis": "forecast_prepared_research_clock", "endpoint_precision": "NOT_ESTABLISHED", "evidence_tier": "QUALIFIED_RECORDED_RESULT", "evidence_issues": [ "The starting reference is retained, but its market observation is not independently verified.", "The recorded endpoint is not independently verified.", "The recorded result has not passed matched-endpoint reproduction.", "No matching numerical return can be reproduced from the recorded prices; this result is direction-only evidence." ], "statistical_weight": 0.25, "return_basis": "DIRECTION_ONLY", "baseline_verified": false, "outcome_verified": false, "endpoint_reproduction_verified": false, "probability_status": "OUTCOME_RETURN_UNAVAILABLE", "probability_score": null }, { "id": "OUTCOME-547784b716e7e0b77d9fab86e6e102fa", "call_id": "SCALL-61ffbfddcc4b4d83ca25b03e", "signal_id": "INV-20261005-NIKKEI-VOLATILITY-DIVERGENCE", "signal_url": "/signals/INV-20261005-NIKKEI-VOLATILITY-DIVERGENCE/", "direction": "BULLISH", "horizon_hours": 24, "status": "HIT", "return_value": 0.013894987159757078, "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "known_time_basis": "RECORDED_OUTCOME_VERIFICATION", "clock_basis": "native_first_publication", "endpoint_precision": "NEAREST_INTRADAY_CANDLE", "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS", "baseline_verified": true, "outcome_verified": true, "endpoint_reproduction_verified": true, "probability_status": "NO_MATCHING_EX_ANTE_FORECAST", "probability_score": null }, { "id": "OUTCOME-61e9488c26052c54fb3fcbf3a2fb8c6f", "call_id": "SCALL-6482bcb69a6603420fbafe3a", "signal_id": "PDF-20261008-0821-02-WOLF", "signal_url": "/signals/PDF-20261008-0821-02-WOLF/", "direction": "BEARISH", "horizon_hours": 24, "status": "HIT", "return_value": -0.1699168900804289, "known_at_utc": "2026-10-09T02:26:55Z", "known_time_basis": "RECORDED_OUTCOME_VERIFICATION", "clock_basis": "explicit_owner_instruction_at_chat_submission", "endpoint_precision": 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"forecast_prepared_research_clock", "endpoint_precision": "NOT_ESTABLISHED", "evidence_tier": "QUALIFIED_RECORDED_RESULT", "evidence_issues": [ "The starting reference is retained, but its market observation is not independently verified.", "The recorded endpoint is not independently verified.", "The recorded result has not passed matched-endpoint reproduction.", "No matching numerical return can be reproduced from the recorded prices; this result is direction-only evidence." ], "statistical_weight": 0.25, "return_basis": "DIRECTION_ONLY", "baseline_verified": false, "outcome_verified": false, "endpoint_reproduction_verified": false, "probability_status": "OUTCOME_RETURN_UNAVAILABLE", "probability_score": null }, { "id": "OUTCOME-44dca8504d1c16a38796eb4fe4108a90", "call_id": "SCALL-7532a8282fe4aca08b4b739a", "signal_id": "INV-20261005-NYKAA-DMART-GROWTH-PRODUCTIVITY-SPLIT", "signal_url": "/signals/INV-20261005-NYKAA-DMART-GROWTH-PRODUCTIVITY-SPLIT/", "direction": "BEARISH", "horizon_hours": 24, "status": "MISS", "return_value": 0.003456234871126091, "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "known_time_basis": "RECORDED_OUTCOME_VERIFICATION", "clock_basis": "native_first_publication", "endpoint_precision": "NEAREST_INTRADAY_CANDLE", "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS", "baseline_verified": true, "outcome_verified": true, "endpoint_reproduction_verified": true, "probability_status": "NO_MATCHING_EX_ANTE_FORECAST", "probability_score": null }, { "id": "OUTCOME-6c2c077a22834296edb490c9c0687d78", "call_id": "SCALL-75600abe1088d25e1cca0057", "signal_id": "INV-20261006-EPCORE-COMPARATOR-COMPETITION", "signal_url": "/signals/INV-20261006-EPCORE-COMPARATOR-COMPETITION/", "direction": "BULLISH", "horizon_hours": 24, "status": "MISS", "return_value": -0.018818987596714156, "known_at_utc": "2026-10-07T11:30:23Z", "known_time_basis": "RECORDED_OUTCOME_VERIFICATION", "clock_basis": "native_first_publication", "endpoint_precision": "NEAREST_INTRADAY_CANDLE", "evidence_tier": "REPRODUCED_ENDPOINTS", "evidence_issues": [], "statistical_weight": 1, "return_basis": "REPRODUCED_MARKET_ENDPOINTS", "baseline_verified": true, "outcome_verified": true, "endpoint_reproduction_verified": true, "probability_status": "NO_MATCHING_EX_ANTE_FORECAST", "probability_score": null }, { "id": "OUTCOME-47f850de7f02be3f05eaeef920bf0c86", "call_id": "SCALL-75fde70c7336c623e1548824", "signal_id": "INV-20261007-2317-USO", "signal_url": "/signals/INV-20261007-2317-USO/", "direction": "BULLISH", "horizon_hours": 48, "status": "HIT", "return_value": null, "known_at_utc": "2026-10-09T15:21:31Z", "known_time_basis": "RECORDED_OUTCOME_VERIFICATION", "clock_basis": "explicit_owner_instruction_at_chat_submission", "endpoint_precision": "NOT_ESTABLISHED", "evidence_tier": "QUALIFIED_RECORDED_RESULT", "evidence_issues": [ "The starting reference is retained, but its market observation 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Qualified indicative HIT requested by the owner. The retained Bitstamp candle agrees with the supplied exit, but its open is five seconds before the frozen deadline. The original Binance USD reference is unverified, from 3 hours 5 minutes 5 seconds before the call, and uses a different provider. This comparison does not se", "No matching numerical return can be reproduced from the recorded prices; this result is direction-only evidence." ], "statistical_weight": 0.25, "return_basis": "DIRECTION_ONLY", "baseline_verified": false, "outcome_verified": false, "endpoint_reproduction_verified": false, "probability_status": "OUTCOME_RETURN_UNAVAILABLE", "probability_score": null }, { "id": "OUTCOME-461ec3e94d57aaa92e108f53505a5172", "call_id": "SCALL-7ef609e1f9e33a5075ad3217", "signal_id": "INV-20261007-2317-XOM", "signal_url": "/signals/INV-20261007-2317-XOM/", "direction": "BULLISH", "horizon_hours": 48, "status": "HIT", "return_value": null, "known_at_utc": "2026-10-09T15:21:31Z", "known_time_basis": "RECORDED_OUTCOME_VERIFICATION", "clock_basis": "explicit_owner_instruction_at_chat_submission", "endpoint_precision": "NOT_ESTABLISHED", "evidence_tier": "QUALIFIED_RECORDED_RESULT", "evidence_issues": [ "The starting reference is retained, but its market observation is not 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