{
  "contract_id": "OTR-C121-MINIMUM-ONE-NO-FIXED-MAXIMUM-V1",
  "contract_version": "1.0.0",
  "edition_release_id": "OTR-DAILY-75-2026-09-03-063500-SGT",
  "release_id": "OTR-C121-20260903-070738.353+0800-SGT",
  "prediction_id": "OTR-C121-20260903-070738.353+0800-SGT:GLD",
  "instrument_name": "SPDR Gold Shares",
  "canonical_ticker": "GLD",
  "instrument_id": "OTR-INSTRUMENT-GLD-NYSEARCA-C121-V1",
  "asset_class": "COMMODITY_ETF",
  "venue": "NYSE Arca consolidated tape",
  "quote_currency": "USD",
  "price_method_id": "NASDAQ-CONSOLIDATED-L1-MIDPOINT-C121-V1",
  "direction": "BULLISH",
  "prediction_mode": "BEST_AVAILABLE",
  "final_probability": 0.55,
  "probability_valid_resolution": 0.995,
  "probability_flat_given_valid": 0.002,
  "probability_clearing_friction": 0.52,
  "entry_price": 402.085,
  "entry_bid": 401.92,
  "entry_ask": 402.25,
  "entry_timestamp": "2026-09-02T23:07:00.000Z",
  "entry_retrieved_at": "2026-09-02T23:07:38.353Z",
  "entry_source": "https://api.nasdaq.com/api/quote/GLD/info?assetclass=etf",
  "secondary_price_source": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/GLD?range=1d&interval=1m&includePrePost=true&events=history",
  "secondary_price": 402.25,
  "secondary_timestamp": "2026-09-02T23:05:15.000Z",
  "quote_age_seconds_at_lock": 38.353,
  "spread_bps": 8.2072,
  "source_conflict_bps": 4.1036,
  "publication_timestamp": "2026-09-02T23:07:38.353Z",
  "publication_timestamp_sgt": "2026-09-03T07:07:38.353+08:00",
  "resolve_deadline": "2026-09-03T19:07:38.353Z",
  "resolve_deadline_sgt": "2026-09-04T03:07:38.353+08:00",
  "exact_horizon_milliseconds": 72000000,
  "maximum_resolution_lag_milliseconds": 300000,
  "flat_tolerance": 0.0005,
  "reference_notional": {
    "amount": 1000,
    "currency": "USD"
  },
  "final_probability_up": 0.55,
  "kolmogorov_outcome_vector": {
    "UP_VALID": 0.5461555,
    "DOWN_VALID": 0.4468545,
    "FLAT_VALID": 0.00199,
    "UNVERIFIABLE": 0.005
  },
  "all_eight_lane_states": [
    {
      "id": "LIVE_MARKET_PULSE",
      "weight": 4,
      "state": "SUPPORT",
      "contribution": 0.11,
      "summary": "GLD and COMEX gold retained positive short and 20-hour momentum; Nasdaq and Yahoo independently agreed on price."
    },
    {
      "id": "CURRENT_EVENTS",
      "weight": 3,
      "state": "SUPPORT",
      "contribution": 0.08,
      "summary": "Independent official conflict, energy and inflation receipts support demand for an inflation and geopolitical hedge."
    },
    {
      "id": "HISTORICAL_DATA",
      "weight": 2,
      "state": "SUPPORT",
      "contribution": 0.03,
      "summary": "A 64-transition public session sample leaned higher, but was not treated as an exact-clock guarantee."
    },
    {
      "id": "OTR_HISTORICAL_DATA",
      "weight": 0,
      "state": "NEUTRAL",
      "contribution": 0,
      "summary": "Earlier OTR gold calls are too sparse to add directional authority."
    },
    {
      "id": "OTR_LEARNING_DATA",
      "weight": 1,
      "state": "NEUTRAL",
      "contribution": 0,
      "summary": "No founder-approved forward lesson cleared promotion thresholds for this call."
    },
    {
      "id": "OTR_GRAPH_LEARNING_DATA",
      "weight": 0,
      "state": "NEUTRAL",
      "contribution": 0,
      "summary": "Graph associations remain observation-only and contribute zero uplift."
    },
    {
      "id": "OTR_MARKET_THEME_PATTERN_DATA",
      "weight": 0,
      "state": "NEUTRAL",
      "contribution": 0,
      "summary": "The current theme is context, not a directional multiplier."
    },
    {
      "id": "INTERNET_MARKET_THEME_DATA",
      "weight": 0,
      "state": "SUPPORT",
      "contribution": 0,
      "summary": "Independent institutions corroborate the energy-inflation regime, but this lane has zero production weight."
    }
  ],
  "prior_probability_up": 0.54,
  "raw_evidence_probability_up": 0.56,
  "calibrated_probability_up": 0.56,
  "reliability_adjusted_probability_up": 0.55,
  "driver_bundle_hash": "27e01966b60f7f0fa2feb6c432f18c1c8cc2ab62bb67a9a2ce0888481bf6fdd4",
  "model_version": "OTR-C121-COMPOSITE-PROBABILITY-V1",
  "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-02T23:07:38.353Z",
  "universe_version": "OTR-GRAPH-49-INVESTIBLES-C121",
  "universe_size": 49,
  "selected_candidate_rank": 1,
  "research_agents": 3,
  "status": "PENDING_20_HOUR_CHECK",
  "immutable": true,
  "strongest_support": "Gold retained positive short- and 20-hour momentum, with the gold ETF and futures pointing the same way while independent institutions kept the energy-inflation risk visible.",
  "strongest_opposition": "Gold had already risen materially, long yields remained high, and a scheduled US productivity and labour-cost release falls inside the 20-hour window.",
  "what_could_make_it_wrong": "A fast rise in real yields or the dollar, verified de-escalation, or a broad reversal of the inflation-hedge trade.",
  "editorial": "Gold is the strongest data-valid candidate in this edition, but the edge is modest. The live tape, current risk regime and public comparison history lean upward; high yields and event risk keep the probability close to a coin toss. OTR therefore publishes GLD as Best Available, not as a Qualified Edge.",
  "artifact_sha256": "983d8bd16ec3c3b87fd89dbc73701c11227c2f917e06eba32595d831a470e00b"
}