{
  "contract_id": "OTR-C121-MINIMUM-ONE-NO-FIXED-MAXIMUM-V1",
  "contract_version": "1.1.0",
  "edition_release_id": "OTR-DAILY-75-2026-09-04-ATOMIC-R1",
  "issue_date_sgt": "2026-09-04",
  "release_id": "OTR-C121-20260904-132042.784+0800-SGT",
  "prediction_id": "OTR-C121-20260904-132042.784+0800-SGT:ETH",
  "instrument_name": "Ethereum",
  "canonical_ticker": "ETH",
  "instrument_id": "OTR-INSTRUMENT-ETH-COINBASE-C146-V1",
  "asset_class": "CRYPTOASSET",
  "venue": "Coinbase Exchange spot market",
  "quote_currency": "USD",
  "price_method_id": "COINBASE-L1-MIDPOINT-C146-V1",
  "session_rule": "24/7",
  "direction": "BULLISH",
  "prediction_mode": "BEST_AVAILABLE",
  "final_probability": 0.51784591,
  "probability_valid_resolution": 0.995,
  "probability_flat_given_valid": 0.03,
  "probability_clearing_friction": 0.31914894,
  "entry_price": 2513.065,
  "entry_bid": 2513.01,
  "entry_ask": 2513.12,
  "entry_timestamp": "2026-09-04T05:20:38.953813673Z",
  "entry_retrieved_at": "2026-09-04T05:20:42.781Z",
  "entry_source": "https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/ETH-USD/ticker",
  "primary_entry_receipt_hash": "43ee1660ba87b9eaa438ba2af9ac8606c82e3fe6400b36b212317095a2713da2",
  "secondary_price_source": "https://api.kraken.com/0/public/Ticker?pair=ETHUSD",
  "secondary_price": 2513.635,
  "secondary_timestamp": "Fri, 04 Sep 2026 05:20:42 GMT",
  "secondary_entry_raw_hash": "604c5a0bbd1982c00a5d008aa0a03892f5d76de9491fae3227b786f7f2c68180",
  "quote_age_seconds_at_lock": 3.828,
  "spread_bps": 0.4377,
  "source_conflict_bps": 2.2681,
  "publication_timestamp": "2026-09-04T05:20:42.784Z",
  "publication_timestamp_sgt": "2026-09-04T13:20:42.784+08:00",
  "resolve_deadline": "2026-09-05T01:20:42.784Z",
  "resolve_deadline_sgt": "2026-09-05T09:20:42.784+08:00",
  "exact_horizon_milliseconds": 72000000,
  "maximum_resolution_lag_milliseconds": 300000,
  "flat_tolerance": 0.0005,
  "resolution_rule": "First complete eligible Coinbase Exchange L1 midpoint observation at or after T1 and no later than T1+300 seconds, confirmed by Kraken spot L1; otherwise a named UNVERIFIABLE state.",
  "reference_notional": {
    "amount": 1000,
    "currency": "USD"
  },
  "forecast_friction": 0.00672188,
  "final_probability_up": 0.51784591,
  "kolmogorov_outcome_vector": {
    "UP_VALID": 0.49979898,
    "DOWN_VALID": 0.46535102,
    "FLAT_VALID": 0.02985,
    "UNVERIFIABLE": 0.005
  },
  "all_eight_lane_states": [
    {
      "id": "LIVE_MARKET_PULSE",
      "weight": 4,
      "state": "SUPPORT",
      "contribution": 0.01249214,
      "quality": 0.94,
      "summary": "Ethereum had 4.44% 20-hour and 0.31% four-hour movement at the evidence cutoff; 26 comparable non-overlapping windows and two live price families were checked."
    },
    {
      "id": "CURRENT_EVENTS",
      "weight": 3,
      "state": "NEUTRAL",
      "contribution": 0,
      "quality": 0.78,
      "summary": "No fresh investible-specific event cleared the independence and transmission tests; the lane is neutral, while the US jobs release is recorded as opposition risk."
    },
    {
      "id": "HISTORICAL_DATA",
      "weight": 2,
      "state": "SUPPORT",
      "contribution": 0.00535377,
      "quality": 0.84,
      "summary": "1000 hourly observations produced 47 non-overlapping 20-hour windows; uncertainty remains explicit."
    },
    {
      "id": "OTR_HISTORICAL_DATA",
      "weight": 0,
      "state": "NEUTRAL",
      "contribution": 0,
      "quality": 0.72,
      "summary": "Earlier OTR calls remain audit context only and add no directional weight."
    },
    {
      "id": "OTR_LEARNING_DATA",
      "weight": 1,
      "state": "NEUTRAL",
      "contribution": 0,
      "quality": 0.75,
      "summary": "No newly promoted lesson changes direction or production weights for this release."
    },
    {
      "id": "OTR_GRAPH_LEARNING_DATA",
      "weight": 0,
      "state": "NEUTRAL",
      "contribution": 0,
      "quality": 0.8,
      "summary": "Graph Learning records relationships but has zero causal or directional uplift until prospective validation."
    },
    {
      "id": "OTR_MARKET_THEME_PATTERN_DATA",
      "weight": 0,
      "state": "NEUTRAL",
      "contribution": 0,
      "quality": 0.74,
      "summary": "The relief-not-resolution theme is context, not a directional multiplier."
    },
    {
      "id": "INTERNET_MARKET_THEME_DATA",
      "weight": 0,
      "state": "NEUTRAL",
      "contribution": 0,
      "quality": 0.7,
      "summary": "No independent wider-theme item is counted as a separate directional signal for this crypto candidate."
    }
  ],
  "prior_probability_up": 0.53191489,
  "raw_evidence_probability_up": 0.54472212,
  "calibrated_probability_up": 0.53667214,
  "reliability_adjusted_probability_up": 0.51784591,
  "posterior_predictive_distribution": {
    "expected_20h_return": 0.00555668,
    "median_20h_return": 0.00126722,
    "p10_return": -0.02074245,
    "p90_return": 0.02703431,
    "expected_volatility": 0.03057336
  },
  "prior_sensitivity_range": [
    0.52012496,
    0.54024991
  ],
  "effective_sample_size": 36,
  "standard_error": 0.08328024,
  "walk_forward_brier": 0.25936809,
  "selection_adjusted_rank_edge": -0.119007,
  "driver_bundle_hash": "9cdf4d0eabcc96a98019f18c94a85dbd0200d0fcb39edfd5b48109bc56471ec7",
  "model_version": "OTR-C146-COMPOSITE-PROBABILITY-V1",
  "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-04T05:20:42.784Z",
  "universe_version": "OTR-GRAPH-49-INVESTIBLES-C146",
  "universe_size": 49,
  "universe_hash": "d1f52307c8052bc4ce09ce70a4fcf00b046dcdcff883ad43eb659e2bb9830b87",
  "selected_candidate_rank": 1,
  "research_agents": 3,
  "status": "PENDING_20_HOUR_CHECK",
  "immutable": true,
  "strongest_support": "Ethereum had 4.44% 20-hour and 0.31% four-hour movement at the evidence cutoff; 26 comparable non-overlapping windows and two live price families were checked.",
  "strongest_opposition": "The current issue has no fresh investible-specific crypto event, the scheduled US jobs release falls inside the 20-hour horizon, and the walk-forward probability score did not beat the 50/50 baseline decisively.",
  "what_could_make_it_wrong": "A reversal in risk appetite, a strong labour-data surprise, a liquidity shock, or failure of recent price persistence before the exact check.",
  "editorial": "Ethereum is the highest-ranked data-valid candidate across the frozen universe. The live tape and comparable 20-hour history lean higher, but the statistical edge is modest and current-event evidence is neutral. OTR publishes it as Best Available, with the opposition and exact check rule visible.",
  "leave_one_out_results": [
    {
      "removed_lane": "LIVE_MARKET_PULSE",
      "direction_flip": true,
      "probability_change": 0.01249214,
      "publication_winner_change": true,
      "uncertainty_change": "INCREASES"
    },
    {
      "removed_lane": "CURRENT_EVENTS",
      "direction_flip": false,
      "probability_change": 0,
      "publication_winner_change": false,
      "uncertainty_change": "INCREASES"
    },
    {
      "removed_lane": "HISTORICAL_DATA",
      "direction_flip": false,
      "probability_change": 0.00535377,
      "publication_winner_change": false,
      "uncertainty_change": "INCREASES"
    },
    {
      "removed_lane": "OTR_LEARNING_DATA",
      "direction_flip": false,
      "probability_change": 0,
      "publication_winner_change": false,
      "uncertainty_change": "INCREASES"
    }
  ],
  "artifact_sha256": "2b4cd2c5ab1aed2f4f5f1f49557a29c36bfe6cbd0c671ffae0f5d26177baa058"
}