{
  "schema_version": 3,
  "story_id": "OTR-FULL-IMMERSIVE-STORY-2026-07-31-1420-SGT",
  "edition_id": "OTR-FULL-IMMERSIVE-2026-07-31-1420-SGT",
  "standard_id": "OTR-FULL-IMMERSIVE-STORY-STANDARD-V1",
  "release_id": "OTR-DAILY-68-2026-07-31-0800-SGT",
  "publication_status": "ACTIVE",
  "supersedes": "OTR-FULL-IMMERSIVE-STORY-2026-07-31-1305-SGT",
  "market_pulse_cutoff_at_sgt": "2026-07-31T08:00:00+08:00",
  "story_written_at_sgt": "2026-07-31T14:20:00+08:00",
  "current_event_window": {
    "start_at_sgt": "2026-07-30T08:00:00+08:00",
    "end_at_sgt": "2026-07-31T08:00:00+08:00"
  },
  "confidence_boundary": "This edition distinguishes reported facts, suspected explanations, verified release records and settled outcomes. One publisher headline never becomes independent confirmation by repetition.",
  "historical_add_on": {
    "contract_id": "OTR-FULL-IMMERSIVE-HISTORICAL-ADD-ON-V1",
    "label": "Historical comparison add-on",
    "required_on_every_tab": true,
    "placement": "VISIBLE_BELOW_ACTIVE_TAB",
    "use_state": "CONTEXT_ONLY",
    "source_order": [
      "OTR_PUBLISHED_HISTORY",
      "PUBLIC_HISTORICAL_MARKET_DATA",
      "BASE44_ARCHIVE"
    ],
    "comparison_rule": "Every tab shows a dated comparison to the nearest prior OTR publication, followed by bounded market-history context.",
    "boundary": "Historical comparisons explain change across releases; they cannot verify a current fact, fill a missing source, settle a prediction or change an engine weight.",
    "current_comparison_source": {
      "edition_id": "OTR-FULL-IMMERSIVE-2026-07-30-1933-SGT",
      "release_id": "OTR-DAILY-66-2026-07-30-1904-SGT",
      "publication_date": "2026-07-30",
      "publication_label": "30 July 2026 OTR publish",
      "path": "/data/canonical-stories/otr-full-immersive-story-2026-07-30-1933-sgt.json"
    }
  },
  "market_pulse": {
    "label": "YEN UP - BOE HOLD - PROOF TIGHTENS",
    "headline": "The yen jumped, the Bank of England held, and businesses faced a sharper proof test.",
    "summary": "A suspected-intervention currency move, a 6-3 Bank Rate hold, credit and pay pressure, strategic supply deals and Singapore talent needs make verification and delivery the shared test.",
    "state": "Yen repriced - intervention unconfirmed - Bank Rate held 3.75% - credit quality watched - labour and supply delivery watched",
    "source_ids": [
      "YEN-REUTERS",
      "YEN-CNA",
      "BOE-OFFICIAL",
      "BRAZIL-CREDIT-REUTERS",
      "AI-PAY-AOL",
      "SG-EVENTS-CNA"
    ]
  },
  "prediction_release": {
    "release_id": "OTR-PREDICTIONS-2026-07-31-1410-SGT",
    "parent_daily_release_id": "OTR-DAILY-68-2026-07-31-0800-SGT",
    "locked_at_sgt": "2026-07-31T14:10:00+08:00",
    "resolves_at_sgt": "2026-08-01T10:10:00+08:00",
    "promoted_prediction_count": 32,
    "held_disposition_count": 33,
    "assessment_receipt_id": "OTR-PREDICTION-ASSESSMENT-2026-07-31-1410-SGT",
    "research_only": true
  },
  "story_spine": [
    {
      "step": 1,
      "title": "The yen reprices",
      "body": "A sharp currency move resets the Asia risk picture while its suspected cause remains unconfirmed.",
      "source_ids": [
        "YEN-REUTERS",
        "YEN-CNA"
      ]
    },
    {
      "step": 2,
      "title": "Policy holds but splits",
      "body": "The Bank of England holds at 3.75% while three members prefer 4%.",
      "source_ids": [
        "BOE-OFFICIAL",
        "YEN-REUTERS"
      ]
    },
    {
      "step": 3,
      "title": "Financial conditions reach cash flow",
      "body": "Credit expansion and defaults show why access and resilience must be measured separately.",
      "source_ids": [
        "BRAZIL-CREDIT-REUTERS",
        "BOE-OFFICIAL"
      ]
    },
    {
      "step": 4,
      "title": "Labour effects widen",
      "body": "AI pressure may appear in pay while Singapore's events sector needs a stronger talent pipeline.",
      "source_ids": [
        "AI-PAY-AOL",
        "SG-EVENTS-CNA"
      ]
    },
    {
      "step": 5,
      "title": "Supply assurance becomes strategic",
      "body": "Rare-earth investment and LNG contracting seek dependable access and delivery.",
      "source_ids": [
        "RARE-EARTH-ECOFIN",
        "LNG-CANADA-OBSERVER"
      ]
    },
    {
      "step": 6,
      "title": "The human consequence stays visible",
      "body": "Consumer choices, medical research and Sudan reporting prevent a market-only reading.",
      "source_ids": [
        "ORGANIC-MARKETPLACE",
        "CANCER-SCITECH",
        "SUDAN-AP"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "BOE-OFFICIAL",
      "label": "Bank of England",
      "fact": "Bank of England reported: Bank of England maintains Bank Rate at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote",
      "url": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/july-2026",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_CURRENT",
      "canonical_signal_id": "OTR-20260731-15-2",
      "engine": "Finance",
      "publisher_timestamp": "2026-07-30T11:00:00.000Z"
    },
    {
      "id": "YEN-REUTERS",
      "label": "Reuters",
      "fact": "Reuters reported: Yen soars as analysts suspect official intervention; dollar broadly weaker",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-steadies-fed-holds-rates-us-strikes-iran-2026-07-30/",
      "source_type": "SOURCE_LINKED_CURRENT",
      "canonical_signal_id": "OTR-20260731-28-3",
      "engine": "Forex Signals",
      "publisher_timestamp": "2026-07-30T12:47:00.000Z"
    },
    {
      "id": "YEN-CNA",
      "label": "CNA",
      "fact": "CNA reported: Yen jumps as analysts suspect official intervention; dollar broadly weaker",
      "url": "https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/yen-jumps-analysts-suspect-official-intervention-dollar-broadly-weaker-6287231",
      "source_type": "SOURCE_LINKED_CURRENT",
      "canonical_signal_id": "OTR-20260731-28-5",
      "engine": "Forex Signals",
      "publisher_timestamp": "2026-07-30T10:55:00.000Z"
    },
    {
      "id": "BRAZIL-CREDIT-REUTERS",
      "label": "Reuters",
      "fact": "Reuters reported: Lula's payroll loans boom, but Brazilian defaults spike too",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/lulas-payroll-loans-boom-brazilian-defaults-spike-too-2026-07-30/",
      "source_type": "SOURCE_LINKED_CURRENT",
      "canonical_signal_id": "OTR-20260731-54-1",
      "engine": "Banking & Credit",
      "publisher_timestamp": "2026-07-30T13:33:00.000Z"
    },
    {
      "id": "SUDAN-AP",
      "label": "Associated Press",
      "fact": "Associated Press reported: AP Exclusive: Child soldiers recount horrors of Sudan’s war and presence of Colombian mercenaries",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/sudan-war-child-soldiers-colombia-mercenaries-uae-rsf-9730de7a24a28895b2c2c500e7c1fd6b",
      "source_type": "SOURCE_LINKED_CURRENT",
      "canonical_signal_id": "OTR-20260731-27-4",
      "engine": "CrimsonWatch",
      "publisher_timestamp": "2026-07-30T08:13:00.000Z"
    },
    {
      "id": "SG-EVENTS-CNA",
      "label": "CNA",
      "fact": "CNA reported: Singapore must strengthen talent pipeline of business events industry to stay competitive: Gan Siow Huang",
      "url": "https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/tourism-conferences-exhibitions-talent-6287786",
      "source_type": "SOURCE_LINKED_CURRENT",
      "canonical_signal_id": "OTR-20260731-19-2",
      "engine": "Singapore Trending Activities",
      "publisher_timestamp": "2026-07-30T10:02:00.000Z"
    },
    {
      "id": "AI-PAY-AOL",
      "label": "AOL",
      "fact": "AOL reported: AI's real threat to the job market isn't job loss, it's lower paychecks, new research says",
      "url": "https://www.aol.com/articles/ais-real-threat-job-market-155421000.html",
      "source_type": "SOURCE_LINKED_CURRENT",
      "canonical_signal_id": "OTR-20260731-14-7",
      "engine": "Conflux Nexus Omega Engine",
      "publisher_timestamp": "2026-07-30T08:53:00.000Z"
    },
    {
      "id": "ORGANIC-MARKETPLACE",
      "label": "Marketplace",
      "fact": "Marketplace reported: In spite price hike fatigue, consumers are still snapping up organic foods",
      "url": "https://www.marketplace.org/story/2026/07/30/with-food-prices-so-high-why-are-people-still-splurging-on-organic",
      "source_type": "SOURCE_LINKED_CURRENT",
      "canonical_signal_id": "OTR-20260731-33-1",
      "engine": "Merchandise Demand",
      "publisher_timestamp": "2026-07-30T14:23:00.000Z"
    },
    {
      "id": "LNG-CANADA-OBSERVER",
      "label": "Canada's National Observer",
      "fact": "Canada's National Observer reported: Canada seals LNG deal with German energy provider",
      "url": "https://www.nationalobserver.com/2026/07/30/news/ksi-lisims-lng-agreement-uniper",
      "source_type": "SOURCE_LINKED_CURRENT",
      "canonical_signal_id": "OTR-20260731-36-2",
      "engine": "Energy & Power",
      "publisher_timestamp": "2026-07-30T04:05:00.000Z"
    },
    {
      "id": "RARE-EARTH-ECOFIN",
      "label": "Ecofin Agency",
      "fact": "Ecofin Agency reported: Toyota Deepens African Supply Chain With Namibia Rare Earths Investment",
      "url": "https://www.ecofinagency.com/news/3007-57874-toyota-deepens-african-supply-chain-with-namibia-rare-earths-investment",
      "source_type": "SOURCE_LINKED_CURRENT",
      "canonical_signal_id": "OTR-20260731-40-4",
      "engine": "Mining & Critical Materials",
      "publisher_timestamp": "2026-07-30T13:27:00.000Z"
    },
    {
      "id": "CANCER-SCITECH",
      "label": "SciTechDaily",
      "fact": "SciTechDaily reported: Shape-Shifting Drug Supercharges Cancer Treatment in Mice",
      "url": "https://scitechdaily.com/shape-shifting-drug-supercharges-cancer-treatment-in-mice/",
      "source_type": "SOURCE_LINKED_CURRENT",
      "canonical_signal_id": "OTR-20260731-35-1",
      "engine": "Medical breakthroughs",
      "publisher_timestamp": "2026-07-30T16:53:00.000Z"
    }
  ],
  "tabs": {
    "Today": {
      "eyebrow": "TODAY - THE NEW 31 JULY PICTURE",
      "question": "What changed after the 30 July edition?",
      "headline": "The yen jumped, the Bank of England held, and the proof bar rose.",
      "narrative": [
        "The clearest new market move was in the yen: Reuters and CNA both reported a sharp rise while analysts suspected official intervention. Suspicion is not confirmation, so the edition preserves that boundary instead of presenting intervention as settled fact.",
        "The Bank of England then held Bank Rate at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote. Around those market facts, new reports on credit defaults, wage pressure, strategic materials and Singapore's events workforce show a common demand: large claims now need evidence that survives a cost and delivery test."
      ],
      "beats": [
        {
          "label": "CURRENCY",
          "title": "A sharp yen move changed the Asia pulse",
          "body": "Two source-linked reports describe the jump; neither turns analyst suspicion into an official confirmation.",
          "source_ids": [
            "YEN-REUTERS",
            "YEN-CNA"
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "POLICY",
          "title": "The Bank held with a visible split",
          "body": "The official minutes record a 6-3 hold at 3.75%, with three members preferring 4%.",
          "source_ids": [
            "BOE-OFFICIAL",
            "YEN-REUTERS"
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "PROOF",
          "title": "Costs and delivery decide the next move",
          "body": "Credit, workforce and supply-chain reports all point to verification at the point of consequence.",
          "source_ids": [
            "BRAZIL-CREDIT-REUTERS",
            "SG-EVENTS-CNA",
            "RARE-EARTH-ECOFIN"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "market_connection": "Currency volatility and a divided rate decision raise the value of direct proof over broad thematic positioning.",
      "history_echo": "CONTEXT_ONLY: the retained record helps frame a comparison, but current sources control every current fact and state.",
      "historical_data": [
        {
          "record_id": "MPAT-DCOILBRENTEU-2020-04-21-2020-05-20",
          "dataset_id": "OTR-HISTORICAL-MARKET-PATTERNS-2000-2026-07-29",
          "record_type": "HISTORICAL_MARKET_PATTERN",
          "evidence_state": "OBSERVED_DERIVED",
          "use_state": "CONTEXT_ONLY",
          "current_fact_authority": false,
          "series_id": "DCOILBRENTEU",
          "series_name": "Brent crude oil",
          "family": "Energy",
          "start_date": "2020-04-21",
          "end_date": "2020-05-20",
          "direction": "UP",
          "change_display": "+281.14%",
          "headline": "Brent crude oil moved +281.14% across 20 available daily observations",
          "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU",
          "match_label": "Cross-asset reset",
          "comparison": "This retained market window helps compare the scale and transmission channel of today's evidence.",
          "difference": "It is not current proof, does not establish causation, and cannot settle a prediction or fill a missing source.",
          "matched_signal_ids": [
            "OTR-20260731-28-3",
            "OTR-20260731-15-2"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "publication_comparisons": [
        {
          "comparison_id": "OTR-PUBLISH-COMPARISON-2026-07-31-1420-SGT-TODAY",
          "source_type": "OTR_PUBLISHED_HISTORY",
          "source_edition_id": "OTR-FULL-IMMERSIVE-2026-07-30-1933-SGT",
          "source_release_id": "OTR-DAILY-66-2026-07-30-1904-SGT",
          "source_publication_date": "2026-07-30",
          "source_publication_label": "30 July 2026 OTR publish",
          "source_publication_path": "/data/canonical-stories/otr-full-immersive-story-2026-07-30-1933-sgt.json",
          "source_headline": "The Fed held rates, but the world became less settled.",
          "source_market_pulse": "OIL UP · FED + BOE HOLD · AI SPLITS",
          "use_state": "CONTEXT_ONLY",
          "current_fact_authority": false,
          "comparison": "On 30 July 2026, OTR's Today tab said: “The Fed held rates, but the world became less settled.” under the “OIL UP · FED + BOE HOLD · AI SPLITS” pulse. On 31 July, the tab says: “The yen jumped, the Bank of England held, and the proof bar rose.” under the “YEN UP - BOE HOLD - PROOF TIGHTENS” pulse. Currency volatility and a divided rate decision raise the value of direct proof over broad thematic positioning.",
          "difference": "This is a dated comparison between OTR publishes. It shows what changed in the story, but it does not verify today's facts, prove causation, predict repetition or change any prediction state."
        }
      ],
      "evidence_checklist": [
        "Open the direct source and verify its publisher time.",
        "Keep reported fact separate from explanation and inference.",
        "Require a second route or primary authority for material promotion."
      ],
      "watch_conditions": [
        "Official confirmation or denial of yen intervention",
        "Sterling, gilt and inflation responses after the Bank decision",
        "Whether credit stress and wage pressure persist"
      ],
      "invalidation": "The pulse weakens if the yen move reverses without official confirmation and rate-sensitive pressure eases across several current indicators.",
      "learning_status": "APPENDED_TO_ISSUE_MEMORY - NO_AUTOMATIC_STATE_OR_WEIGHT_CHANGE",
      "update_receipt": {
        "release_id": "OTR-DAILY-68-2026-07-31-0800-SGT",
        "observed_at_sgt": "2026-07-31T14:20:00+08:00",
        "verified_sources": 11,
        "candidate_sources": 280,
        "state": "CURRENT_31_JULY_CANONICAL"
      }
    },
    "Worry": {
      "eyebrow": "WORRY - WHERE PRESSURE REACHES PEOPLE",
      "question": "Which costs are easiest to miss in a market-only reading?",
      "headline": "The human cost sits outside the clean market chart.",
      "narrative": [
        "Brazil's payroll-loan boom arrived beside a reported rise in defaults, showing that access to credit and financial resilience are not the same thing. Marketplace's report on organic-food demand shows consumers still making selective quality choices despite price fatigue.",
        "The hardest evidence is human rather than financial. The Associated Press report on child soldiers in Sudan makes clear that conflict cannot be reduced to commodity or currency moves. OTR keeps that consequence visible and refuses to turn it into a tradable claim."
      ],
      "beats": [
        {
          "label": "CREDIT",
          "title": "Access can rise while resilience falls",
          "body": "New borrowing activity needs to be read beside default outcomes.",
          "source_ids": [
            "BRAZIL-CREDIT-REUTERS",
            "BOE-OFFICIAL"
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "HOUSEHOLDS",
          "title": "Price fatigue does not erase preferences",
          "body": "Consumers can cut elsewhere while retaining selected premium purchases.",
          "source_ids": [
            "ORGANIC-MARKETPLACE",
            "AI-PAY-AOL"
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "HUMAN",
          "title": "War evidence has a non-market consequence",
          "body": "The Sudan report is kept as a human-security record, not a market instrument.",
          "source_ids": [
            "SUDAN-AP",
            "LNG-CANADA-OBSERVER"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "market_connection": "Credit quality, household choice and geopolitical risk can move on different clocks; one headline cannot stand in for all three.",
      "history_echo": "CONTEXT_ONLY: the retained record helps frame a comparison, but current sources control every current fact and state.",
      "historical_data": [
        {
          "record_id": "MPAT-DCOILWTICO-2020-03-20-2020-04-20",
          "dataset_id": "OTR-HISTORICAL-MARKET-PATTERNS-2000-2026-07-29",
          "record_type": "HISTORICAL_MARKET_PATTERN",
          "evidence_state": "OBSERVED_DERIVED",
          "use_state": "CONTEXT_ONLY",
          "current_fact_authority": false,
          "series_id": "DCOILWTICO",
          "series_name": "WTI crude oil",
          "family": "Energy",
          "start_date": "2020-03-20",
          "end_date": "2020-04-20",
          "direction": "DOWN",
          "change_display": "-289.84%",
          "headline": "WTI crude oil moved -289.84% across 20 available daily observations",
          "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO",
          "match_label": "Household pressure",
          "comparison": "This retained market window helps compare the scale and transmission channel of today's evidence.",
          "difference": "It is not current proof, does not establish causation, and cannot settle a prediction or fill a missing source.",
          "matched_signal_ids": [
            "OTR-20260731-54-1",
            "OTR-20260731-33-1"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "publication_comparisons": [
        {
          "comparison_id": "OTR-PUBLISH-COMPARISON-2026-07-31-1420-SGT-WORRY",
          "source_type": "OTR_PUBLISHED_HISTORY",
          "source_edition_id": "OTR-FULL-IMMERSIVE-2026-07-30-1933-SGT",
          "source_release_id": "OTR-DAILY-66-2026-07-30-1904-SGT",
          "source_publication_date": "2026-07-30",
          "source_publication_label": "30 July 2026 OTR publish",
          "source_publication_path": "/data/canonical-stories/otr-full-immersive-story-2026-07-30-1933-sgt.json",
          "source_headline": "A rate hold does not remove the inflation problem.",
          "source_market_pulse": "OIL UP · FED + BOE HOLD · AI SPLITS",
          "use_state": "CONTEXT_ONLY",
          "current_fact_authority": false,
          "comparison": "On 30 July 2026, OTR's Worry tab said: “A rate hold does not remove the inflation problem.” under the “OIL UP · FED + BOE HOLD · AI SPLITS” pulse. On 31 July, the tab says: “The human cost sits outside the clean market chart.” under the “YEN UP - BOE HOLD - PROOF TIGHTENS” pulse. Credit quality, household choice and geopolitical risk can move on different clocks; one headline cannot stand in for all three.",
          "difference": "This is a dated comparison between OTR publishes. It shows what changed in the story, but it does not verify today's facts, prove causation, predict repetition or change any prediction state."
        }
      ],
      "evidence_checklist": [
        "Open the direct source and verify its publisher time.",
        "Keep reported fact separate from explanation and inference.",
        "Require a second route or primary authority for material promotion."
      ],
      "watch_conditions": [
        "Default rates after payroll-credit expansion",
        "Evidence of real-income pressure in household choices",
        "Independent documentation of Sudan recruitment and command chains"
      ],
      "invalidation": "The broad pressure reading changes if defaults fall, real incomes strengthen and new human-security evidence contradicts the reported pattern.",
      "learning_status": "APPENDED_TO_ISSUE_MEMORY - NO_AUTOMATIC_STATE_OR_WEIGHT_CHANGE",
      "update_receipt": {
        "release_id": "OTR-DAILY-68-2026-07-31-0800-SGT",
        "observed_at_sgt": "2026-07-31T14:20:00+08:00",
        "verified_sources": 11,
        "candidate_sources": 280,
        "state": "CURRENT_31_JULY_CANONICAL"
      }
    },
    "Big 3": {
      "eyebrow": "BIG 3 - THE THREE CHANGES TO HOLD",
      "question": "Which developments organise the edition?",
      "headline": "Currency, policy and earning power form today's Big Three.",
      "narrative": [
        "First, the yen's sudden rise shows how quickly a crowded currency view can reset. Second, the Bank of England's 6-3 hold keeps policy restrictive while exposing disagreement about whether more restraint is needed.",
        "Third, new labour reporting suggests AI's economic effect may appear through pay and bargaining power as well as job counts. These are separate facts, but together they make evidence quality and household transmission more important."
      ],
      "beats": [
        {
          "label": "01 - YEN",
          "title": "A fast move, an unconfirmed cause",
          "body": "The price move is reported; official intervention remains suspected rather than verified.",
          "source_ids": [
            "YEN-REUTERS",
            "YEN-CNA"
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "02 - BANK",
          "title": "A hold with three votes for higher rates",
          "body": "The official decision keeps the level unchanged while preserving a tighter-policy branch.",
          "source_ids": [
            "BOE-OFFICIAL",
            "BRAZIL-CREDIT-REUTERS"
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "03 - PAY",
          "title": "AI pressure may travel through wages",
          "body": "The report broadens the labour test beyond a simple count of jobs lost.",
          "source_ids": [
            "AI-PAY-AOL",
            "SG-EVENTS-CNA"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "market_connection": "The Big Three connect repricing, the cost of money and household earning power without claiming one directly caused the others.",
      "history_echo": "CONTEXT_ONLY: the retained record helps frame a comparison, but current sources control every current fact and state.",
      "historical_data": [
        {
          "record_id": "MPAT-DGS2-1980-04-08-1980-05-06",
          "dataset_id": "OTR-HISTORICAL-MARKET-PATTERNS-2000-2026-07-29",
          "record_type": "HISTORICAL_MARKET_PATTERN",
          "evidence_state": "OBSERVED_DERIVED",
          "use_state": "CONTEXT_ONLY",
          "current_fact_authority": false,
          "series_id": "DGS2",
          "series_name": "U.S. Treasury 2-year yield",
          "family": "Interest rates",
          "start_date": "1980-04-08",
          "end_date": "1980-05-06",
          "direction": "DOWN",
          "change_display": "-449.00 bps",
          "headline": "U.S. Treasury 2-year yield moved -449.00 bps across 20 available daily observations",
          "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
          "match_label": "Short-rate sensitivity",
          "comparison": "This retained market window helps compare the scale and transmission channel of today's evidence.",
          "difference": "It is not current proof, does not establish causation, and cannot settle a prediction or fill a missing source.",
          "matched_signal_ids": [
            "OTR-20260731-15-2",
            "OTR-20260731-28-5"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "publication_comparisons": [
        {
          "comparison_id": "OTR-PUBLISH-COMPARISON-2026-07-31-1420-SGT-BIG-3",
          "source_type": "OTR_PUBLISHED_HISTORY",
          "source_edition_id": "OTR-FULL-IMMERSIVE-2026-07-30-1933-SGT",
          "source_release_id": "OTR-DAILY-66-2026-07-30-1904-SGT",
          "source_publication_date": "2026-07-30",
          "source_publication_label": "30 July 2026 OTR publish",
          "source_publication_path": "/data/canonical-stories/otr-full-immersive-story-2026-07-30-1933-sgt.json",
          "source_headline": "Oil, a divided Fed and AI returns now control the story.",
          "source_market_pulse": "OIL UP · FED + BOE HOLD · AI SPLITS",
          "use_state": "CONTEXT_ONLY",
          "current_fact_authority": false,
          "comparison": "On 30 July 2026, OTR's Big 3 tab said: “Oil, a divided Fed and AI returns now control the story.” under the “OIL UP · FED + BOE HOLD · AI SPLITS” pulse. On 31 July, the tab says: “Currency, policy and earning power form today's Big Three.” under the “YEN UP - BOE HOLD - PROOF TIGHTENS” pulse. The Big Three connect repricing, the cost of money and household earning power without claiming one directly caused the others.",
          "difference": "This is a dated comparison between OTR publishes. It shows what changed in the story, but it does not verify today's facts, prove causation, predict repetition or change any prediction state."
        }
      ],
      "evidence_checklist": [
        "Open the direct source and verify its publisher time.",
        "Keep reported fact separate from explanation and inference.",
        "Require a second route or primary authority for material promotion."
      ],
      "watch_conditions": [
        "Official yen intervention evidence",
        "Bank of England inflation and wage follow-through",
        "Repeated labour datasets on pay, hours and job transitions"
      ],
      "invalidation": "The ranking changes if the yen signal fades, policy guidance turns clearly easier, or broader wage evidence rejects the reported AI-pay channel.",
      "learning_status": "APPENDED_TO_ISSUE_MEMORY - NO_AUTOMATIC_STATE_OR_WEIGHT_CHANGE",
      "update_receipt": {
        "release_id": "OTR-DAILY-68-2026-07-31-0800-SGT",
        "observed_at_sgt": "2026-07-31T14:20:00+08:00",
        "verified_sources": 11,
        "candidate_sources": 280,
        "state": "CURRENT_31_JULY_CANONICAL"
      }
    },
    "Predictions": {
      "eyebrow": "PREDICTIONS - CONDITIONS BEFORE CONVICTION",
      "question": "Which research-only contracts passed the four-layer gate?",
      "headline": "Thirty-two paper predictions are locked; every other mention stays visible as held evidence.",
      "narrative": [
        "The 31 July 2026 prediction release is parented to the active 68-engine edition. It locks 32 source-supported paper setups with exact entry bands, assessed entries, targets, safety exits, resolver paths and separate entry, exit and +20-hour resolution clocks.",
        "No card is open yet: regular-session entries begin at 21:30 SGT and Bitcoin's continuous entry window begins at 14:15 SGT. Every one of the 40 registry-recognised investible mentions has a visible disposition; 33 remain HELD where an approved price path, clean alias or verified signal is missing."
      ],
      "beats": [
        {
          "label": "32 LOCKED",
          "title": "Exact terms exist before the window",
          "body": "Every promoted card has a fixed band, target, safety exit, resolver and resolution time.",
          "source_ids": [
            "YEN-REUTERS",
            "BOE-OFFICIAL"
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "33 HELD",
          "title": "Missing proof remains visible",
          "body": "Named investibles without an approved source-timed path are held instead of guessed or silently dropped.",
          "source_ids": [
            "YEN-CNA",
            "BRAZIL-CREDIT-REUTERS"
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "+20 HOURS",
          "title": "Learning waits for legal evidence",
          "body": "A due timestamp alone cannot create a HIT or MISS; entry and exit receipts remain append-only.",
          "source_ids": [
            "AI-PAY-AOL",
            "BRAZIL-CREDIT-REUTERS"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "market_connection": "Prediction state: 32 research-only contracts locked and waiting for entry; 33 direct mentions visibly held. No entry, settlement or weighting change is claimed at publish.",
      "history_echo": "CONTEXT_ONLY: the retained record helps frame a comparison, but current sources control every current fact and state.",
      "historical_data": [
        {
          "record_id": "MPAT-DGS1MO-2007-07-23-2007-08-20",
          "dataset_id": "OTR-HISTORICAL-MARKET-PATTERNS-2000-2026-07-29",
          "record_type": "HISTORICAL_MARKET_PATTERN",
          "evidence_state": "OBSERVED_DERIVED",
          "use_state": "CONTEXT_ONLY",
          "current_fact_authority": false,
          "series_id": "DGS1MO",
          "series_name": "U.S. Treasury 1-month yield",
          "family": "Interest rates",
          "start_date": "2007-07-23",
          "end_date": "2007-08-20",
          "direction": "DOWN",
          "change_display": "-241.00 bps",
          "headline": "U.S. Treasury 1-month yield moved -241.00 bps across 20 available daily observations",
          "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS1MO",
          "match_label": "No-hindsight control",
          "comparison": "This retained market window helps compare the scale and transmission channel of today's evidence.",
          "difference": "It is not current proof, does not establish causation, and cannot settle a prediction or fill a missing source.",
          "matched_signal_ids": [
            "OTR-20260731-15-2",
            "OTR-20260731-28-3"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "publication_comparisons": [
        {
          "comparison_id": "OTR-PUBLISH-COMPARISON-2026-07-31-1420-SGT-PREDICTIONS",
          "source_type": "OTR_PUBLISHED_HISTORY",
          "source_edition_id": "OTR-FULL-IMMERSIVE-2026-07-30-1933-SGT",
          "source_release_id": "OTR-DAILY-66-2026-07-30-1904-SGT",
          "source_publication_date": "2026-07-30",
          "source_publication_label": "30 July 2026 OTR publish",
          "source_publication_path": "/data/canonical-stories/otr-full-immersive-story-2026-07-30-1933-sgt.json",
          "source_headline": "No automatic prediction: the evidence creates watch conditions.",
          "source_market_pulse": "OIL UP · FED + BOE HOLD · AI SPLITS",
          "use_state": "CONTEXT_ONLY",
          "current_fact_authority": false,
          "comparison": "On 30 July 2026, OTR's Predictions tab said: “No automatic prediction: the evidence creates watch conditions.” under the “OIL UP · FED + BOE HOLD · AI SPLITS” pulse. On 31 July, the tab says: “Thirty-two paper predictions are locked; every other mention stays visible as held evidence.” under the “YEN UP - BOE HOLD - PROOF TIGHTENS” pulse. Prediction state: 32 research-only contracts locked and waiting for entry; 33 direct mentions visibly held. No entry, settlement or weighting change is claimed at publish.",
          "difference": "This is a dated comparison between OTR publishes. It shows what changed in the story, but it does not verify today's facts, prove causation, predict repetition or change any prediction state."
        }
      ],
      "evidence_checklist": [
        "Open the direct source and verify its publisher time.",
        "Keep reported fact separate from explanation and inference.",
        "Require a second route or primary authority for material promotion."
      ],
      "watch_conditions": [
        "Release-scoped Nasdaq evidence inside 21:30-22:00 SGT and Coinbase evidence inside the Bitcoin window",
        "Target, safety-exit and time-exit evidence after a verified entry",
        "Append-only HIT / MISS receipts due at 10:10 SGT on 1 August"
      ],
      "invalidation": "Any missing release binding, exact term, source-timed resolver receipt or complete mention disposition fails closed.",
      "learning_status": "APPENDED_TO_ISSUE_MEMORY - NO_AUTOMATIC_STATE_OR_WEIGHT_CHANGE",
      "update_receipt": {
        "release_id": "OTR-DAILY-68-2026-07-31-0800-SGT",
        "observed_at_sgt": "2026-07-31T14:20:00+08:00",
        "verified_sources": 11,
        "candidate_sources": 280,
        "state": "CURRENT_31_JULY_CANONICAL"
      }
    },
    "Dots": {
      "eyebrow": "DOTS - A CAUSAL MAP WITH GAPS SHOWN",
      "question": "How can these signals connect without inventing causation?",
      "headline": "The map runs from repricing to policy, then into cash flow and capability.",
      "narrative": [
        "A sharp currency move can change import costs and hedging needs. A divided central-bank decision shapes the price of capital. Credit defaults and consumer choices then show where those financial conditions may reach real cash flow.",
        "Strategic-material investment and LNG contracting sit on a longer clock: companies and countries are paying for supply assurance. Singapore's business-events talent warning adds the capability constraint. The chain is plausible, but each arrow still needs its own current proof."
      ],
      "beats": [
        {
          "label": "PRICE TO POLICY",
          "title": "Repricing changes the question",
          "body": "Currency volatility and a rate hold reset the near-term policy conversation.",
          "source_ids": [
            "YEN-REUTERS",
            "BOE-OFFICIAL"
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "POLICY TO CASH FLOW",
          "title": "Financial conditions meet borrowers",
          "body": "Loan growth and defaults must be observed together.",
          "source_ids": [
            "BRAZIL-CREDIT-REUTERS",
            "ORGANIC-MARKETPLACE"
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "SUPPLY TO CAPABILITY",
          "title": "Assurance needs materials and people",
          "body": "Rare-earth investment, LNG contracting and event talent expose different delivery constraints.",
          "source_ids": [
            "RARE-EARTH-ECOFIN",
            "LNG-CANADA-OBSERVER",
            "SG-EVENTS-CNA"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "market_connection": "This is a transmission hypothesis with visible gaps, not a declaration that every signal shares one cause.",
      "history_echo": "CONTEXT_ONLY: the retained record helps frame a comparison, but current sources control every current fact and state.",
      "historical_data": [
        {
          "record_id": "MPAT-DGS10-1981-10-26-1981-11-25",
          "dataset_id": "OTR-HISTORICAL-MARKET-PATTERNS-2000-2026-07-29",
          "record_type": "HISTORICAL_MARKET_PATTERN",
          "evidence_state": "OBSERVED_DERIVED",
          "use_state": "CONTEXT_ONLY",
          "current_fact_authority": false,
          "series_id": "DGS10",
          "series_name": "U.S. Treasury 10-year yield",
          "family": "Interest rates",
          "start_date": "1981-10-26",
          "end_date": "1981-11-25",
          "direction": "DOWN",
          "change_display": "-262.00 bps",
          "headline": "U.S. Treasury 10-year yield moved -262.00 bps across 20 available daily observations",
          "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
          "match_label": "Transmission context",
          "comparison": "This retained market window helps compare the scale and transmission channel of today's evidence.",
          "difference": "It is not current proof, does not establish causation, and cannot settle a prediction or fill a missing source.",
          "matched_signal_ids": [
            "OTR-20260731-28-3",
            "OTR-20260731-54-1"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "publication_comparisons": [
        {
          "comparison_id": "OTR-PUBLISH-COMPARISON-2026-07-31-1420-SGT-DOTS",
          "source_type": "OTR_PUBLISHED_HISTORY",
          "source_edition_id": "OTR-FULL-IMMERSIVE-2026-07-30-1933-SGT",
          "source_release_id": "OTR-DAILY-66-2026-07-30-1904-SGT",
          "source_publication_date": "2026-07-30",
          "source_publication_label": "30 July 2026 OTR publish",
          "source_publication_path": "/data/canonical-stories/otr-full-immersive-story-2026-07-30-1933-sgt.json",
          "source_headline": "The chain runs from physical risk to the price of capital.",
          "source_market_pulse": "OIL UP · FED + BOE HOLD · AI SPLITS",
          "use_state": "CONTEXT_ONLY",
          "current_fact_authority": false,
          "comparison": "On 30 July 2026, OTR's Dots tab said: “The chain runs from physical risk to the price of capital.” under the “OIL UP · FED + BOE HOLD · AI SPLITS” pulse. On 31 July, the tab says: “The map runs from repricing to policy, then into cash flow and capability.” under the “YEN UP - BOE HOLD - PROOF TIGHTENS” pulse. This is a transmission hypothesis with visible gaps, not a declaration that every signal shares one cause.",
          "difference": "This is a dated comparison between OTR publishes. It shows what changed in the story, but it does not verify today's facts, prove causation, predict repetition or change any prediction state."
        }
      ],
      "evidence_checklist": [
        "Open the direct source and verify its publisher time.",
        "Keep reported fact separate from explanation and inference.",
        "Require a second route or primary authority for material promotion."
      ],
      "watch_conditions": [
        "Hedging and import-cost responses",
        "Borrower defaults and bank loss provisions",
        "Delivery milestones for supply and talent commitments"
      ],
      "invalidation": "Break the chain wherever current evidence shows a proposed transmission did not occur.",
      "learning_status": "APPENDED_TO_ISSUE_MEMORY - NO_AUTOMATIC_STATE_OR_WEIGHT_CHANGE",
      "update_receipt": {
        "release_id": "OTR-DAILY-68-2026-07-31-0800-SGT",
        "observed_at_sgt": "2026-07-31T14:20:00+08:00",
        "verified_sources": 11,
        "candidate_sources": 280,
        "state": "CURRENT_31_JULY_CANONICAL"
      }
    },
    "Novel": {
      "eyebrow": "NOVEL - THE NON-OBVIOUS READ",
      "question": "What becomes visible only when labour and supply signals are compared?",
      "headline": "Scarcity may move from jobs to pay, talent and trusted supply.",
      "narrative": [
        "The AI-pay report suggests disruption may appear through lower earnings even when headline job loss is limited. Singapore's business-events warning shows another side: an industry can have demand and still face a shortage of people able to deliver it.",
        "Rare-earth investment and LNG contracting show the physical version of the same problem. Availability alone is insufficient; buyers want dependable access, counterparties and delivery. The novel connection is a proof premium across labour and supply, not one universal shortage."
      ],
      "beats": [
        {
          "label": "PAY",
          "title": "Job counts can miss income pressure",
          "body": "Wages, hours and bargaining power are separate measures of labour disruption.",
          "source_ids": [
            "AI-PAY-AOL",
            "SG-EVENTS-CNA"
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "TALENT",
          "title": "Demand still needs delivery capability",
          "body": "Singapore's events sector identifies the workforce pipeline as a competitiveness constraint.",
          "source_ids": [
            "SG-EVENTS-CNA",
            "ORGANIC-MARKETPLACE"
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "SUPPLY",
          "title": "Strategic access is becoming contractual",
          "body": "Rare-earth investment and LNG deals reflect a search for durable supply routes.",
          "source_ids": [
            "RARE-EARTH-ECOFIN",
            "LNG-CANADA-OBSERVER"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "market_connection": "The proof premium can reward verified delivery while punishing stories built only on capacity or demand labels.",
      "history_echo": "CONTEXT_ONLY: the retained record helps frame a comparison, but current sources control every current fact and state.",
      "historical_data": [
        {
          "record_id": "MPAT-DEXKOUS-1997-11-21-1997-12-23",
          "dataset_id": "OTR-HISTORICAL-MARKET-PATTERNS-2000-2026-07-29",
          "record_type": "HISTORICAL_MARKET_PATTERN",
          "evidence_state": "OBSERVED_DERIVED",
          "use_state": "CONTEXT_ONLY",
          "current_fact_authority": false,
          "series_id": "DEXKOUS",
          "series_name": "South Korean won per U.S. dollar",
          "family": "Foreign exchange",
          "start_date": "1997-11-21",
          "end_date": "1997-12-23",
          "direction": "UP",
          "change_display": "+84.91%",
          "headline": "South Korean won per U.S. dollar moved +84.91% across 20 available daily observations",
          "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXKOUS",
          "match_label": "Regional supply context",
          "comparison": "This retained market window helps compare the scale and transmission channel of today's evidence.",
          "difference": "It is not current proof, does not establish causation, and cannot settle a prediction or fill a missing source.",
          "matched_signal_ids": [
            "OTR-20260731-14-7",
            "OTR-20260731-40-4"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "publication_comparisons": [
        {
          "comparison_id": "OTR-PUBLISH-COMPARISON-2026-07-31-1420-SGT-NOVEL",
          "source_type": "OTR_PUBLISHED_HISTORY",
          "source_edition_id": "OTR-FULL-IMMERSIVE-2026-07-30-1933-SGT",
          "source_release_id": "OTR-DAILY-66-2026-07-30-1904-SGT",
          "source_publication_date": "2026-07-30",
          "source_publication_label": "30 July 2026 OTR publish",
          "source_publication_path": "/data/canonical-stories/otr-full-immersive-story-2026-07-30-1933-sgt.json",
          "source_headline": "AI demand can boom while confidence becomes more selective.",
          "source_market_pulse": "OIL UP · FED + BOE HOLD · AI SPLITS",
          "use_state": "CONTEXT_ONLY",
          "current_fact_authority": false,
          "comparison": "On 30 July 2026, OTR's Novel tab said: “AI demand can boom while confidence becomes more selective.” under the “OIL UP · FED + BOE HOLD · AI SPLITS” pulse. On 31 July, the tab says: “Scarcity may move from jobs to pay, talent and trusted supply.” under the “YEN UP - BOE HOLD - PROOF TIGHTENS” pulse. The proof premium can reward verified delivery while punishing stories built only on capacity or demand labels.",
          "difference": "This is a dated comparison between OTR publishes. It shows what changed in the story, but it does not verify today's facts, prove causation, predict repetition or change any prediction state."
        }
      ],
      "evidence_checklist": [
        "Open the direct source and verify its publisher time.",
        "Keep reported fact separate from explanation and inference.",
        "Require a second route or primary authority for material promotion."
      ],
      "watch_conditions": [
        "Wage distribution and hours worked",
        "Training, hiring and retention in Singapore events",
        "Construction and delivery milestones in strategic supply projects"
      ],
      "invalidation": "The read weakens if delivery improves without higher assurance costs and broader labour data shows no wage or bargaining effect.",
      "learning_status": "APPENDED_TO_ISSUE_MEMORY - NO_AUTOMATIC_STATE_OR_WEIGHT_CHANGE",
      "update_receipt": {
        "release_id": "OTR-DAILY-68-2026-07-31-0800-SGT",
        "observed_at_sgt": "2026-07-31T14:20:00+08:00",
        "verified_sources": 11,
        "candidate_sources": 280,
        "state": "CURRENT_31_JULY_CANONICAL"
      }
    },
    "Tomorrow": {
      "eyebrow": "TOMORROW - THE NEXT OBSERVABLE PROOF",
      "question": "What should the next update check first?",
      "headline": "Confirm the yen story, then follow rates, credit and delivery.",
      "narrative": [
        "The first check is narrow: look for official evidence about the yen move and do not upgrade analyst suspicion without it. The second is the Bank of England follow-through in inflation, wages, sterling and gilt pricing.",
        "The third check is slower. Track whether credit defaults persist, whether Singapore's talent pipeline produces measurable capacity, and whether rare-earth or LNG agreements become delivered supply. Each item has a different clock and must update separately."
      ],
      "beats": [
        {
          "label": "NEXT HOURS",
          "title": "Intervention proof or refusal",
          "body": "Official communication matters more than repeated speculation.",
          "source_ids": [
            "YEN-REUTERS",
            "YEN-CNA"
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "NEXT WEEKS",
          "title": "Policy transmission",
          "body": "Inflation, wages and market pricing test the meaning of the 6-3 hold.",
          "source_ids": [
            "BOE-OFFICIAL",
            "BRAZIL-CREDIT-REUTERS"
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "NEXT MONTHS",
          "title": "Delivery receipts",
          "body": "Talent programmes and strategic-supply projects need measurable milestones.",
          "source_ids": [
            "SG-EVENTS-CNA",
            "RARE-EARTH-ECOFIN",
            "LNG-CANADA-OBSERVER"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "market_connection": "Update order: official currency evidence, policy transmission, borrower outcomes, then physical and workforce delivery.",
      "history_echo": "CONTEXT_ONLY: the retained record helps frame a comparison, but current sources control every current fact and state.",
      "historical_data": [
        {
          "record_id": "MPAT-T10Y2Y-1980-04-10-1980-05-08",
          "dataset_id": "OTR-HISTORICAL-MARKET-PATTERNS-2000-2026-07-29",
          "record_type": "HISTORICAL_MARKET_PATTERN",
          "evidence_state": "OBSERVED_DERIVED",
          "use_state": "CONTEXT_ONLY",
          "current_fact_authority": false,
          "series_id": "T10Y2Y",
          "series_name": "U.S. Treasury 10-year minus 2-year spread",
          "family": "Yield curve",
          "start_date": "1980-04-10",
          "end_date": "1980-05-08",
          "direction": "UP",
          "change_display": "+221.00 bps",
          "headline": "U.S. Treasury 10-year minus 2-year spread moved +221.00 bps across 20 available daily observations",
          "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y",
          "match_label": "Next-proof context",
          "comparison": "This retained market window helps compare the scale and transmission channel of today's evidence.",
          "difference": "It is not current proof, does not establish causation, and cannot settle a prediction or fill a missing source.",
          "matched_signal_ids": [
            "OTR-20260731-15-2",
            "OTR-20260731-36-2"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "publication_comparisons": [
        {
          "comparison_id": "OTR-PUBLISH-COMPARISON-2026-07-31-1420-SGT-TOMORROW",
          "source_type": "OTR_PUBLISHED_HISTORY",
          "source_edition_id": "OTR-FULL-IMMERSIVE-2026-07-30-1933-SGT",
          "source_release_id": "OTR-DAILY-66-2026-07-30-1904-SGT",
          "source_publication_date": "2026-07-30",
          "source_publication_label": "30 July 2026 OTR publish",
          "source_publication_path": "/data/canonical-stories/otr-full-immersive-story-2026-07-30-1933-sgt.json",
          "source_headline": "Watch oil persistence, rate language and the earnings reaction.",
          "source_market_pulse": "OIL UP · FED + BOE HOLD · AI SPLITS",
          "use_state": "CONTEXT_ONLY",
          "current_fact_authority": false,
          "comparison": "On 30 July 2026, OTR's Tomorrow tab said: “Watch oil persistence, rate language and the earnings reaction.” under the “OIL UP · FED + BOE HOLD · AI SPLITS” pulse. On 31 July, the tab says: “Confirm the yen story, then follow rates, credit and delivery.” under the “YEN UP - BOE HOLD - PROOF TIGHTENS” pulse. Update order: official currency evidence, policy transmission, borrower outcomes, then physical and workforce delivery.",
          "difference": "This is a dated comparison between OTR publishes. It shows what changed in the story, but it does not verify today's facts, prove causation, predict repetition or change any prediction state."
        }
      ],
      "evidence_checklist": [
        "Open the direct source and verify its publisher time.",
        "Keep reported fact separate from explanation and inference.",
        "Require a second route or primary authority for material promotion."
      ],
      "watch_conditions": [
        "Japan finance-ministry and central-bank statements",
        "Bank of England data and guidance",
        "Dated delivery milestones from client and member-relevant sectors"
      ],
      "invalidation": "Any branch is removed when its required proof fails, reverses or expires.",
      "learning_status": "APPENDED_TO_ISSUE_MEMORY - NO_AUTOMATIC_STATE_OR_WEIGHT_CHANGE",
      "update_receipt": {
        "release_id": "OTR-DAILY-68-2026-07-31-0800-SGT",
        "observed_at_sgt": "2026-07-31T14:20:00+08:00",
        "verified_sources": 11,
        "candidate_sources": 280,
        "state": "CURRENT_31_JULY_CANONICAL"
      }
    },
    "Learning": {
      "eyebrow": "LEARNING - RESOLVE ONLY WHAT IS DUE",
      "question": "What did the system learn from the failed 04:00 run?",
      "headline": "Fresh collection must be real, and unresolved contracts must stay unresolved.",
      "narrative": [
        "The operational lesson is settled: a scheduled daily command cannot replay yesterday's canonical story and call it fresh. The repaired runner now collects every active engine first, checks 5-10 candidates per lane, builds the canonical issue and updates downstream surfaces before public promotion.",
        "The evidence lesson remains bounded. Current records add watch conditions around currency confirmation, wage pressure and delivery. They do not settle the prior worker before its resolver is due, create a missed entry after the fact, or change an engine weight from one issue."
      ],
      "beats": [
        {
          "label": "RESOLVED",
          "title": "The stale-runner defect is removed",
          "body": "The canonical daily command now begins with fresh collection and complete-run validation.",
          "source_ids": [
            "YEN-REUTERS",
            "BOE-OFFICIAL"
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "PENDING",
          "title": "The worker keeps its original clock",
          "body": "No new signal can rewrite a locked resolver window.",
          "source_ids": [
            "AI-PAY-AOL",
            "BRAZIL-CREDIT-REUTERS"
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "UNCHANGED",
          "title": "No weight moves from one edition",
          "body": "History supplies comparison only; repeated settled outcomes are still required.",
          "source_ids": [
            "SG-EVENTS-CNA",
            "RARE-EARTH-ECOFIN"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "market_connection": "Learning state: pipeline defect resolved; prediction state carried forward; zero outcome or engine-weight changes.",
      "history_echo": "CONTEXT_ONLY: the retained record helps frame a comparison, but current sources control every current fact and state.",
      "historical_data": [
        {
          "record_id": "MPAT-DGS30-1981-10-26-1981-11-25",
          "dataset_id": "OTR-HISTORICAL-MARKET-PATTERNS-2000-2026-07-29",
          "record_type": "HISTORICAL_MARKET_PATTERN",
          "evidence_state": "OBSERVED_DERIVED",
          "use_state": "CONTEXT_ONLY",
          "current_fact_authority": false,
          "series_id": "DGS30",
          "series_name": "U.S. Treasury 30-year yield",
          "family": "Interest rates",
          "start_date": "1981-10-26",
          "end_date": "1981-11-25",
          "direction": "DOWN",
          "change_display": "-238.00 bps",
          "headline": "U.S. Treasury 30-year yield moved -238.00 bps across 20 available daily observations",
          "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS30",
          "match_label": "Long-memory restraint",
          "comparison": "This retained market window helps compare the scale and transmission channel of today's evidence.",
          "difference": "It is not current proof, does not establish causation, and cannot settle a prediction or fill a missing source.",
          "matched_signal_ids": [
            "OTR-20260731-14-7",
            "OTR-20260731-19-2"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "publication_comparisons": [
        {
          "comparison_id": "OTR-PUBLISH-COMPARISON-2026-07-31-1420-SGT-LEARNING",
          "source_type": "OTR_PUBLISHED_HISTORY",
          "source_edition_id": "OTR-FULL-IMMERSIVE-2026-07-30-1933-SGT",
          "source_release_id": "OTR-DAILY-66-2026-07-30-1904-SGT",
          "source_publication_date": "2026-07-30",
          "source_publication_label": "30 July 2026 OTR publish",
          "source_publication_path": "/data/canonical-stories/otr-full-immersive-story-2026-07-30-1933-sgt.json",
          "source_headline": "Keep the questions; do not overlearn the answer.",
          "source_market_pulse": "OIL UP · FED + BOE HOLD · AI SPLITS",
          "use_state": "CONTEXT_ONLY",
          "current_fact_authority": false,
          "comparison": "On 30 July 2026, OTR's Learning tab said: “Keep the questions; do not overlearn the answer.” under the “OIL UP · FED + BOE HOLD · AI SPLITS” pulse. On 31 July, the tab says: “Fresh collection must be real, and unresolved contracts must stay unresolved.” under the “YEN UP - BOE HOLD - PROOF TIGHTENS” pulse. Learning state: pipeline defect resolved; prediction state carried forward; zero outcome or engine-weight changes.",
          "difference": "This is a dated comparison between OTR publishes. It shows what changed in the story, but it does not verify today's facts, prove causation, predict repetition or change any prediction state."
        }
      ],
      "evidence_checklist": [
        "Open the direct source and verify its publisher time.",
        "Keep reported fact separate from explanation and inference.",
        "Require a second route or primary authority for material promotion."
      ],
      "watch_conditions": [
        "Next 04:00 collection receipt",
        "Original prediction resolver deadlines",
        "Repeated outcome evidence before recalibration"
      ],
      "invalidation": "A learning claim is withdrawn if the next scheduled run misses a lane or if the stated resolver evidence does not match the locked contract.",
      "learning_status": "PIPELINE_DEFECT_RESOLVED - PREDICTION_STATES_UNCHANGED - ENGINE_WEIGHTS_UNCHANGED",
      "update_receipt": {
        "release_id": "OTR-DAILY-68-2026-07-31-0800-SGT",
        "observed_at_sgt": "2026-07-31T14:20:00+08:00",
        "verified_sources": 11,
        "candidate_sources": 280,
        "state": "CURRENT_31_JULY_CANONICAL"
      }
    },
    "Glossary": {
      "eyebrow": "GLOSSARY - PRECISE WORDS, PLAIN MEANING",
      "question": "Which labels stop the edition from overstating the evidence?",
      "headline": "Reported, suspected, verified and resolved are different states.",
      "narrative": [
        "Reported means a named publisher supplied the claim. Suspected means an explanation is being considered but is not confirmed by the responsible authority. Verified means the candidate passed the current-source and engine-scope gates; it does not automatically verify every wider inference.",
        "Resolved means a locked question reached its required evidence window and a permitted resolver supplied the answer. A current signal can be useful without being resolved, and a historical pattern can be relevant while remaining context only."
      ],
      "beats": [
        {
          "label": "REPORTED",
          "title": "A named source made the claim",
          "body": "The direct route and publisher time stay attached.",
          "source_ids": [
            "YEN-REUTERS",
            "SUDAN-AP"
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "SUSPECTED",
          "title": "An explanation is not yet official",
          "body": "The yen reports preserve the intervention boundary in their own wording.",
          "source_ids": [
            "YEN-REUTERS",
            "YEN-CNA"
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "RESOLVED",
          "title": "The evidence contract reached its answer",
          "body": "A completed policy vote is resolved; a future prediction window is not.",
          "source_ids": [
            "BOE-OFFICIAL",
            "AI-PAY-AOL"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "market_connection": "Precise labels let users compare strong and weak evidence without hiding either.",
      "history_echo": "CONTEXT_ONLY: the retained record helps frame a comparison, but current sources control every current fact and state.",
      "historical_data": [
        {
          "record_id": "MPAT-DTWEXBGS-2008-09-26-2008-10-24",
          "dataset_id": "OTR-HISTORICAL-MARKET-PATTERNS-2000-2026-07-29",
          "record_type": "HISTORICAL_MARKET_PATTERN",
          "evidence_state": "OBSERVED_DERIVED",
          "use_state": "CONTEXT_ONLY",
          "current_fact_authority": false,
          "series_id": "DTWEXBGS",
          "series_name": "Broad U.S. dollar index",
          "family": "Foreign exchange",
          "start_date": "2008-09-26",
          "end_date": "2008-10-24",
          "direction": "UP",
          "change_display": "+12.30%",
          "headline": "Broad U.S. dollar index moved +12.30% across 20 available daily observations",
          "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXBGS",
          "match_label": "Currency-definition aid",
          "comparison": "This retained market window helps compare the scale and transmission channel of today's evidence.",
          "difference": "It is not current proof, does not establish causation, and cannot settle a prediction or fill a missing source.",
          "matched_signal_ids": [
            "OTR-20260731-28-3",
            "OTR-20260731-28-5"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "publication_comparisons": [
        {
          "comparison_id": "OTR-PUBLISH-COMPARISON-2026-07-31-1420-SGT-GLOSSARY",
          "source_type": "OTR_PUBLISHED_HISTORY",
          "source_edition_id": "OTR-FULL-IMMERSIVE-2026-07-30-1933-SGT",
          "source_release_id": "OTR-DAILY-66-2026-07-30-1904-SGT",
          "source_publication_date": "2026-07-30",
          "source_publication_label": "30 July 2026 OTR publish",
          "source_publication_path": "/data/canonical-stories/otr-full-immersive-story-2026-07-30-1933-sgt.json",
          "source_headline": "Fresh, verified, self-verification and split evidence mean different things.",
          "source_market_pulse": "OIL UP · FED + BOE HOLD · AI SPLITS",
          "use_state": "CONTEXT_ONLY",
          "current_fact_authority": false,
          "comparison": "On 30 July 2026, OTR's Glossary tab said: “Fresh, verified, self-verification and split evidence mean different things.” under the “OIL UP · FED + BOE HOLD · AI SPLITS” pulse. On 31 July, the tab says: “Reported, suspected, verified and resolved are different states.” under the “YEN UP - BOE HOLD - PROOF TIGHTENS” pulse. Precise labels let users compare strong and weak evidence without hiding either.",
          "difference": "This is a dated comparison between OTR publishes. It shows what changed in the story, but it does not verify today's facts, prove causation, predict repetition or change any prediction state."
        }
      ],
      "evidence_checklist": [
        "Open the direct source and verify its publisher time.",
        "Keep reported fact separate from explanation and inference.",
        "Require a second route or primary authority for material promotion."
      ],
      "watch_conditions": [
        "Source timestamp and direct URL",
        "Authority responsible for confirmation",
        "Locked window and resolver for any prediction"
      ],
      "invalidation": "A label changes only when a dated receipt supplies the evidence required by the next state.",
      "learning_status": "APPENDED_TO_ISSUE_MEMORY - NO_AUTOMATIC_STATE_OR_WEIGHT_CHANGE",
      "update_receipt": {
        "release_id": "OTR-DAILY-68-2026-07-31-0800-SGT",
        "observed_at_sgt": "2026-07-31T14:20:00+08:00",
        "verified_sources": 11,
        "candidate_sources": 280,
        "state": "CURRENT_31_JULY_CANONICAL"
      }
    },
    "Proof": {
      "eyebrow": "PROOF - THE 31 JULY RELEASE RECEIPT",
      "question": "Can users trace the issue and recover previous editions?",
      "headline": "Every current claim and every prior publication keeps a route.",
      "narrative": [
        "The 31 July run retained 659 candidates across 68 engines and 280 source domains. 157 records passed the current-source and engine-scope gates; 502 remain visibly marked for self-verification.",
        "The current pointers move forward, but dated signal releases and Full Immersive stories remain immutable inputs to the public publication archive. Users can search prior signals and prior tab records, open their frozen receipts and distinguish full, partial and summary-only history."
      ],
      "beats": [
        {
          "label": "RUN",
          "title": "Every engine stayed inside 5-10",
          "body": "The complete-run gate passed before story construction.",
          "source_ids": [
            "BOE-OFFICIAL",
            "YEN-REUTERS"
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "SOURCES",
          "title": "The release exceeds the 50-source requirement",
          "body": "The collected ledger spans 280 distinct source domains.",
          "source_ids": [
            "SG-EVENTS-CNA",
            "RARE-EARTH-ECOFIN"
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "HISTORY",
          "title": "Previous editions remain user-accessible",
          "body": "Dated artifacts feed the searchable public archive instead of being overwritten by current pointers.",
          "source_ids": [
            "SUDAN-AP",
            "ORGANIC-MARKETPLACE"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "market_connection": "Proof state: active 68-engine edition, source-linked ledger, explicit evidence states, immutable dated history and a public archive.",
      "history_echo": "CONTEXT_ONLY: the retained record helps frame a comparison, but current sources control every current fact and state.",
      "historical_data": [
        {
          "record_id": "MPAT-DEXSIUS-1997-12-11-1998-01-12",
          "dataset_id": "OTR-HISTORICAL-MARKET-PATTERNS-2000-2026-07-29",
          "record_type": "HISTORICAL_MARKET_PATTERN",
          "evidence_state": "OBSERVED_DERIVED",
          "use_state": "CONTEXT_ONLY",
          "current_fact_authority": false,
          "series_id": "DEXSIUS",
          "series_name": "Singapore dollar per U.S. dollar",
          "family": "Foreign exchange",
          "start_date": "1997-12-11",
          "end_date": "1998-01-12",
          "direction": "UP",
          "change_display": "+9.98%",
          "headline": "Singapore dollar per U.S. dollar moved +9.98% across 20 available daily observations",
          "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXSIUS",
          "match_label": "Singapore evidence boundary",
          "comparison": "This retained market window helps compare the scale and transmission channel of today's evidence.",
          "difference": "It is not current proof, does not establish causation, and cannot settle a prediction or fill a missing source.",
          "matched_signal_ids": [
            "OTR-20260731-19-2",
            "OTR-20260731-15-2"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "publication_comparisons": [
        {
          "comparison_id": "OTR-PUBLISH-COMPARISON-2026-07-31-1420-SGT-PROOF",
          "source_type": "OTR_PUBLISHED_HISTORY",
          "source_edition_id": "OTR-FULL-IMMERSIVE-2026-07-30-1933-SGT",
          "source_release_id": "OTR-DAILY-66-2026-07-30-1904-SGT",
          "source_publication_date": "2026-07-30",
          "source_publication_label": "30 July 2026 OTR publish",
          "source_publication_path": "/data/canonical-stories/otr-full-immersive-story-2026-07-30-1933-sgt.json",
          "source_headline": "This edition has a new release, new window and new signal ledger.",
          "source_market_pulse": "OIL UP · FED + BOE HOLD · AI SPLITS",
          "use_state": "CONTEXT_ONLY",
          "current_fact_authority": false,
          "comparison": "On 30 July 2026, OTR's Proof tab said: “This edition has a new release, new window and new signal ledger.” under the “OIL UP · FED + BOE HOLD · AI SPLITS” pulse. On 31 July, the tab says: “Every current claim and every prior publication keeps a route.” under the “YEN UP - BOE HOLD - PROOF TIGHTENS” pulse. Proof state: active 68-engine edition, source-linked ledger, explicit evidence states, immutable dated history and a public archive.",
          "difference": "This is a dated comparison between OTR publishes. It shows what changed in the story, but it does not verify today's facts, prove causation, predict repetition or change any prediction state."
        }
      ],
      "evidence_checklist": [
        "Open the direct source and verify its publisher time.",
        "Keep reported fact separate from explanation and inference.",
        "Require a second route or primary authority for material promotion."
      ],
      "watch_conditions": [
        "Archive index hash after promotion",
        "Current-to-dated artifact consistency",
        "Next scheduled run's 68 lane receipts"
      ],
      "invalidation": "Public promotion fails closed if counts, hashes, canonical release IDs or archive coverage diverge.",
      "learning_status": "APPENDED_TO_ISSUE_MEMORY - NO_AUTOMATIC_STATE_OR_WEIGHT_CHANGE",
      "update_receipt": {
        "release_id": "OTR-DAILY-68-2026-07-31-0800-SGT",
        "observed_at_sgt": "2026-07-31T14:20:00+08:00",
        "verified_sources": 11,
        "candidate_sources": 280,
        "state": "CURRENT_31_JULY_CANONICAL"
      }
    }
  },
  "generation": {
    "mode": "FRESH_DAILY_COLLECTION",
    "run_id": "OTR-DAILY-68-2026-07-31-0800-SGT",
    "completed_at_sgt": "2026-07-31T14:20:00+08:00",
    "source_release_sha256": "3e04fa048082641921a8acee15ce89879b6dab8d71935ab798a00714436bd3c7",
    "engine_registry_version": "OTR-REGISTRY-68-V2",
    "engine_count": 68,
    "candidate_signal_minimum_per_engine": 5,
    "candidate_signal_maximum_per_engine": 10,
    "candidate_signals_reviewed": 659,
    "accepted_signal_routes": 659,
    "self_verification_required": 502,
    "unique_source_domains": 280,
    "story_tabs": 10,
    "material_signal_change": true,
    "statement": "The edition was generated from a fresh complete engine collection, not a replay of the previous canonical story."
  },
  "deterministic_output_sha256": "bfb93168cd725d563c93b1d961d26f596dd6e2d980518fe0f0874d55c18f35cf"
}